Thursday 5 June 2025

Wheat

Grain markets saw a mixed performance, with geopolitics, weather, and currency movements creating volatility. While US wheat showed strength on war risks and mixed weather concerns, MATIF and London prices hovered near contract lows. Bearish factors including European production optimism, weak demand, and record fund short positions dominated the sentiment, meanwhile war-related risk premiums offered support.

Key Points

• Russian infrastructure strikes by Ukraine and weak peace talks in Istanbul reintroduced a war premium into wheat markets, supporting US and MATIF prices briefly, but failed to sustain rallies amid improving US crop ratings.
• Better weather and timely rainfall boosted crop prospects in the UK and EU, offsetting earlier dryness. This, along with weak farmer selling and low liquidity, kept MATIF and London wheat near or at contract lows.
• The strengthening euro (testing and exceeding 1.14 against the dollar) forced EU markets to discount further to remain competitive, particularly as global export competition from South America and the Black Sea intensified.
• Speculative funds increased short positions in MATIF wheat to record levels by late May, showing confidence in further price erosion. UK and EU markets remain heavily undersold, amplifying downside risk in the face of larger expected crops.
• US wheat showed sporadic strength on Canadian dryness and war risk, but improving crop ratings and China trade tensions weighed on corn and soybeans. Harvest began in parts of the US, namely Texas and southern Oklahoma, adding bearish pressure despite immediate forecasts for rainfall which may prove catchy for early progress.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain fragile, with bearish fundamentals dominating despite intermittent war risk rallies. Strong European crop potential, subdued global demand, and heavy fund shorts suggest further downside risk—unless geopolitical events escalate dramatically, or weather significantly disrupts production. UK and EU prices may remain near lows as crop prospects notch up on recent rainfall, which may exacerbate the need for strong export campaigns, while poor farm liquidity is one of the only supportive factors for markets today.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets continue to trade the weather picture, with recent rains bringing some relief and therefore lower prices for the new crop. As always at this time of year, speculation is taking place as to harvest quality and the impact of the spring drought.

Key Factors

• We have seen continued rainfall across the UK which continues to dampen FOB markets as continental speculators push prices lower. Domestic markets are holding steady as the lack of farmer selling leads to illiquidity.
• Consumer demand remains very slow, and this looks to continue at least in the short term.
  
  

Outlook
Another week, another weather market. We do not anticipate much activity before harvest and a clearer picture on quality is known. The market could move sharply in either direction depending on the result.

Feed Barley

Very little change on the old crop barley. Values have been supported in recent weeks but are starting to push lower as the inverse to harvest looms. New crop is quiet as farmer selling remains limited.

Key Factors

• Good offtake over recent weeks and slow farmer selling has helped to support feed demand and therefore old crop prices. This week however the market has started to crack as sellers eye the big drop into the harvest window, which in theory must get squashed out.
• Old crop export business is once again slow as the European harvest looms.
• New crop markets are similarly quiet. Prices have moved higher relative to wheat in recent weeks to ration demand, on the back of slow farmer selling starving the market of liquidity. Demand is starting to take a step back because of the less competitive prices.
• New crop feed barley still does not calculate to export.
  
  

Outlook
It looks likely that, with an early harvest potentially on the cards, the price inverse from old to new crop should get pushed out, likely at the expense of old crop values. New crop will stay supported vs wheat whilst farmer selling is not happening. Unless we see a major demand hike (which is unlikely at these basis levels), UK feed barley still needs to lose some value to compete against cheaper competing origins for export in the long run.

Rapeseed

Agricultural markets have been choppy again this week with the first point of note being the ruling from the US Court of International Trade that President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing broad tariffs, suspending the tariffs he had put in place. Then the Appeals court reinstated the tariffs while they consider the appeal. Based on the current schedule we are set to have a better idea by the 9^th of this month. Outside this the focus has mainly been on weather forecasts as well as other changing geopolitical events such as the escalation of events between Russia and Ukraine.

Key Points

• In the US, soybeans have made a new low before returning to their previous range. This week’s NASS April Soyoil stocks reading came in well below estimates and low compared to NOPA’s report for the same period that we saw two weeks ago. This helped bring support to both Soyoil and beans, stalling the fall we have seen in Soyoil prices. The extended forecast for the US shows decent rains for the next week before the potential for heat and dryness for the second half of June. In South America, AgRural increased their Brazilian crop estimate by 1.3 mmt to 169 mmt. Argentina’s soybean stocks are at the highest for this time of year as they have been since 2019, though this is largely expected.
• Crude oil has again continued to trade within a range this week following last weekend’s OPEC+ meeting which confirmed that they will be raising production by a further 411,000 barrels per day in June which was in line with what was expected. US/Iran talks have continued this week though it seems like there is less optimism towards an agreement after an Iranian diplomat mentioned that Iran is drafting a negative response to the latest US proposal. Gains have been limited by OECD lowering its global forecast for economic growth for both 2025 and 2026 to 2.9% from its previous 3.1% and 3.0% respectively.

• Canola prices have broken to the downside this week, breaking the uptrend in style, trading at the lowest value we have seen since the end of April as Funds have been further unwinding some of their record length. Last week’s canola crush declined by just over 5% to 184,000mt, to the second lowers figure we have seen this crop year, mostly due to logistical issues. The Canadian government has been focussed on Chinese tariffs on Canadian oil and meal. China have said that they need the elimination of the tariff on Chinese EV’s yet it doesn’t seem like the Canadian government will go for this.
• ABARES has estimated the 25/26 canola crop at 5.70mmt, 6% lower than last year’s estimate due to an expected decline in sowings.
• MATIF rapeseed has seen little change on the week compared to the volatility we have come to get used to. Prices have been suppressed partially due to pressure from the EUR/USD which continues to rally. In Europe, farmer selling remains slow and conditions look positive towards harvest, this would indicate that when harvest selling pressure arrives, it will do so in fashion. In Australia, ABARES released its first crop production forecast which indicated a drop in tonnage for all crops compared to 24/25. For 25/26 rapeseed production is expected at 5.7mmt vs. 6.1mmt last year.
  
  

Outlook
From here, there will be a focus on the outcome of the tariff case in the US court of appeals when that is decided, there will also be some keen eyes on how relations between Canada and China progress and if we are likely to see any canola products flow into China. The mostly completed US planting window has progressed well so far, but dryness will not help freshly planted crops if that arrives. In Europe the key will be harvest dates now and the timing of when the farmer comes to the market.

Oats

Widespread rain across Europe brings relief to oat crops, however farmer selling remains poor.

Key Factors

• Above average rainfall in Sweden, Germany and the UK has brought relief to developing oat crops over the last 2 weeks, however western France had less than 50% of its expected average rainfall which is leading to further moisture stress.
• Demand for milling oats has shown to have fallen year on year in Europe, something which is likely to have been strongly influenced by high oat prices making consumers look for alternative substitutes.

• Spain continues to forecast a bumper oat harvest and could look for export opportunities in the coming months once quality is known.
• Here in the UK the dryness concerns have eased thanks to some widespread rainfall in the last 2 weeks, however there are already reports of farmers forecasting lower yields caused by the unusually low rainfall. However, whether this causes any lasting support to UK oat prices will ultimately come down to demand by the millers.
  
  

Outlook
More rain is needed to sustain developing oat crops and farmer selling will be needed to pressure prices lower. 

Pulses

Another week and more rain. As one buyer said to me this week ‘We’re seeing a cycle of warm, rain and sun – growing weather’, and he isn’t wrong. With pulses being harvested slightly later than other crops, this continued weather pattern is certainly beneficial and helping drive things on. New crop is as ill-defined as ever, however with the forward weather pattern being what it is, we should start to see some more confidence coming to the crop, and a little more positivity towards its yield potential.

Key Factors

• All eyes are certainly turning towards new crop within the UK pulse complex, with old crop becoming more and more of a tidy up job. Consumers are now more or less covered, yet old crop parcels continue to come out of the woodwork. New crop beans remain muted, with only the odd bit of fixed formulation interest. Fundamentally, UK beans are still looking firm and unattractive compared to their alternatives, but more on this below.
• GBP remains firm, having closed at 1.3550 last night. This continues to help buyers of imported products but is hampering the UK’s export competitiveness on a raft of products, beans being one of them. New crop beans are still some way off from being ready, however they are remaining uncompetitive against both other origins on the export footing and other competing raw materials on the domestic front. UK beans are c. £10/mt too expensive compared to the Baltic, whilst here at home, they remain c. £45-50/mt too expensive to be buying wholesale space in to compound rations, and realistically need to be c. £25/mt lower to buy some demand in to the more niche diets which can afford to pay a premium. The big question is what the crop size will be, and what does this mean for the surplus – whilst exact figures are still unclear, it is likely that they will need to come lower to buy some additional demand.

• The weather outlook continues to look supportive for beans, with 15-25mm of rainfall in the forecast for the UK in the coming week, as well as across most of the key bean areas in northern Europe. Temperatures are around normal for this time of year but are supportive overall for plant development and yield potential. If this weather pattern continues, expect to see a softening of bean values as the positive sentiment increases.
• Very little change on market perspective this week but recent rain has given some optimism we will have a crop come harvest.  Interest is building for 2025/26 supply as buyers look to start filling some of their nearby requirements.
  
  

Outlook
The continued rainfall is helping, with another week in the forecast. Positive sentiment towards new crop production potential is steadily building, although prices are remaining static for now, but expect them to start coming under pressure in the coming weeks. The focus will be on human consumption beans as we enter July, with buyers keen to understand what quality potential the crop has.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Rain continues across the UK with varied amounts in different regions, but this will support all growing crops as we head towards the harvest period with crops looking generally well considering the previous conditions. The continued concerns regarding the ongoing yellow rust issues remain and the monitoring of the growing crop is advised.

Key Factors

• For those last minute SFI mixtures we have a wide selection on the floor ready for despatch including Winter bird food & herbal leys for those last minute bits to finish off.
• Interest in the Oilseed rape crop continues with the exciting new variety introductions of Karat, Maverick, Hinsta and for those who need a clubroot variety Crusoe. With the crop value being at reasonable levels we are seeing the early orders appearing so our advice would be to order early to avoid possible disappointment as they are sure to sell with the forecast of a likely increase in the UK rape area. Have you considered companion cropping to help toward giving the oilseed rape crop a better chance of success?  We have several options available including the most popular species – Fenugreek, Buckwheat and Berseem clover.
• ADM Agriculture have a wide range of buyback contracts available on wheat, barley, oats, pulses and many other commodities which can help to increase farm income when its needed. To ensure you get the right choice for your situation, please consider booking your seed requirement early to with the buyback option.
• We have seen good early interest in Winter Hybrid Barley with the new introduction of KWS Inys with its improved lodging resistance of double 8 treated and untreated and much improved resistance score for brackling compared to other varieties. SY Quantock shows increased yield over the benchmark variety SY Kingsbarn and for those looking at situations that require BYDV, SY Kestrel is creating interest.
• Cereals 2025 is next week’s big agricultural show taking place in Leadenham, Lincolnshire which we are pleased to be attending, please come in and see us for a chat to discuss variety choices and the markets we have within ADM to assist going forward. There is also the opportunity to win 3 packs of the new candidate OSR variety Karat from NPZ Plant Breeding. Stand 708.
  
  

Outlook
With some decisions now starting to be made, we here at ADM Agriculture strongly believe that we have all the key factors to help with planning and marketing your crop. Strong links with the UK’s best breeders gives us the insight and knowledge of varieties which runs alongside our experienced team of market strategists to hopefully help lay the plans for your success. Please contact your local farm trader to find out just what we have to offer and how we can work together.

Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 5 or speak with your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
Norwegian maintenance and weaker Asian demand keep European gas stable; US supply remains strong but easing.

Key Factors

• European futures climbed above €36/MWh as planned maintenance at Norway’s Kollsnes facility cut flows.
• Norway remains Europe’s top gas supplier, covering roughly one-third of imports.
• Chinese LNG demand has softened, allowing more LNG to flow into Europe and slightly easing summer supply concerns.
• US futures edged lower to $3.70/MMBtu as LNG export flows slowed to 13.8 bcfd due to seasonal plant maintenance.
• US gas storage remains 4% above the 5-year average, while production dipped slightly to 104 bcfd in June.
  
  

Outlook
European prices remain firm amid Norwegian outages and geopolitical risks, but weaker Chinese demand offers near-term supply relief. In the US, seasonal maintenance and softer demand may keep prices range bound, while storage builds continue.

Ammonia
Prices edge toward a floor east of Suez; further softness likely west as Tampa awaits June settlement.

Key Factors

• Steady supply and limited demand persist globally, keeping markets well-supplied on both sides of Suez.
• East of Suez shows signs of price stabilization, but no significant demand uptick yet.
• Western benchmarks likely to soften further as fundamentals remain weak and buyers remain cautious.
  
  

Outlook
East of Suez may be nearing its pricing floor, but west of Suez remains under pressure as bearish sentiment continues.

Nitrates
European new season progresses steadily; UK market tightens as supply challenges loom.

Key Factors

• LAT Nitrogen is now offering August tonnes; Yara raised July offers last week, indicating continued pricing momentum.
• Demand in Brazil remains healthy; Baltic Sea producers remain comfortable, with many sold forward.
• In the UK, CF Fertilisers issued a June–September delivery price of £335–340/t delivered farm, £5/t above last year.
• UK importers remain challenged to secure large volumes due to tightness in European production and limited import opportunities given price movement on the continent.
  
  

Outlook
European pricing remains firm as the new season advances, but structural tightness in the UK market is likely to increase risk for growers later in the season if import supply remains constrained.

Urea
Prices steady as India returns; near-term pressure offset by expected seasonal demand recovery.

Key Factors

• US NOLA prices continue to slip in thin trade, with prompt barge sales at $370/st FOB, down from $385/st last week.
• India’s 1.5 Mt tender closes 12 June for July shipment — a key short-term driver.
• China resumes exports but continues to block most exports to India.
• Higher supply from China and Egypt expected in July may weigh on prices.
  Demand expected to strengthen from August through Q4 as seasonal buying resumes.
  
  

Outlook
While short-term corrections continue at Nola, India’s return and upcoming seasonal demand are expected to support the market and limit further downside.

Potash
India settles higher contract; Europe steady but firming sentiment ahead of autumn.

Key Factors

• Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) signed new India contract with IPL at $349/t CFR for ~650,000 t, up $65/t from prior levels.
• Other global producers are expected to follow the new benchmark.
  European prices hold flat post-spring season, but sentiment is turning firmer ahead of autumn application.
• Global price gains continue to exert upward pressure; forex remains a complication for EU trade.
  
  

Outlook
India’s higher contract sets a stronger global floor, with steady European prices likely to edge higher through Q3 as autumn demand approaches.

Phosphates
Granular prices extend rally as Chinese floor price rises; tight supply keeps outlook bullish.

Key Factors

• Global granular phosphate prices remain elevated with tight availability sustaining bullish sentiment.
• Some stabilisation and mild softening expected in Q3 as supply improves and buyers gain confidence.
• Chinese DAP FOB prices rise to $715–725/t, with spot trades into Southeast Asia reported at $720–725/t FOB.
• China raises official DAP export floor by $20/t to $700/t FOB; MAP 11-44 floor remains at $580/t FOB.
  
  

Outlook
Global prices are likely to stay firm through summer, with Q3 potentially seeing only marginal downside as supply gradually improves. China’s higher floor price reinforces the bullish tone for now.


Our fertiliser specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 6 or speak with your Farm Trader.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1864	1.3550	1.1416

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
June25	140-152	155-170	210-220	425-435