Market reports

Wheat

Grain markets sharply reversed last week’s rally amid improving US weather, strong crop forecasts, de-escalation of the Middle East conflict. Chicago corn hit fresh contract lows as global fundamentals outweighed geopolitical risks. European prices followed suit, pressured by rising yield projections, a strengthening euro, and a growing weight of undersold farm stocks, creating a bearish backdrop across agricultural markets.

Geopolitics vs. Fundamentals

Despite dramatic US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and a temporary ceasefire between Iran & Israel, markets showed muted reactions. The initial rally driven by war risk quickly reversed as peace talks progressed and no major supply disruptions occurred, shifting focus back to crop fundamentals.

Bearish US Weather and Crop Conditions

Favourable weather across the US, particularly for corn development and wheat harvest progress, weighed on prices. While corn and winter wheat ratings dipped slightly, they remain historically strong. Drought-monitor improvements and forecasted rain in key regions further fuelled bearish sentiment.

Brazil’s Corn Outlook Crushed Sentiment

Agroconsult’s revised Brazil’s corn forecast to a whopping 150 million tonnes—well above USDA estimates of 130mynt —triggering heavy selling across global corn markets and pushing Chicago close to $4/bu. Record South American production levels make US exports look overpriced, forcing corn to discount & dragging wheat lower by association.

European Markets Under Pressure

MATIF wheat broke key technical support and hit new contract lows as MARS raised EU yield forecasts and Russia’s wheat outlook improved. The euro’s rally against the dollar exacerbated the decline, while France’s hot, dry weather hasn’t added enough risk premium to offset bearish trends.

UK Market Weakness and Farmer Apathy

UK wheat futures declined alongside global markets, despite low liquidity, with show season distractions, and poor farmer engagement on prices at or below cost of production. Rising old crop stock pressure, as farmers clear bins ahead of harvest widened discounts and added downward pressure, which is rippling forward into harvest prices, and we see the Nov-May London spread widening back out to £12/t as a result.

Outlook
With war risks fading, markets are refocused on fundamentals: ample global supply, record South American corn, improving weather, and sluggish demand. Wheat must cheapen further to remain competitive, and any support hinges on demand recovery or new crop threats—neither visible currently. Expect continued volatility and further downside unless a bullish catalyst emerges.

Malting Barley

Markets have shown little direction this week, with low consumer demand weighed against quality concerns for the UK spring crop after a challenging growing season.

Key Factors

• A very quiet market on malting barley with little engagement from either the consumer or the grower.  Initial reports of the winter barley cut in France continue a positive note with reports of yields that are better than last year but showing lower protein values.
• However, supply concerns remain with worries for the UK spring crop that has endured a challenging growing season and with further high temperatures in the forecast for the coming days, we would expect to see lower yields on the back of this.
  
  

Outlook

Predicting price direction is a challenge, with a lack of consumer demand and a healthy S & D, it feels like a squeeze on prices and lower premiums, however if we see significant issues with quality then prices may swing in the other direction.

Feed Barley

Another quiet week for feed barley markets as we meander steadily towards harvest with winter grains not that far away from hitting the combine in some parts of the UK, particularly on lighter soils, subject to continue sunshine and minimal rain appearing in the imminent weather forecast.

Key Factors

• Demand remains subdued as we move into the new crop season, both on the export front and domestically, with other origins and products looking better value for the UK and foreign consumer.
• Farmer selling equally remains quiet and with futures falling lower and barley still pricing in lockstep against wheat, growers have stepped back once again as flat prices fall and basis remains weak.

• With harvest now only days away potentially in some parts of the UK, we expect the harvest position to have to push lower to find demand as captive supply comes online in volume.
  
  

Outlook
Demand continues be muted, supply equally remains limited, but with harvest nearly there and big corn crops in SA and wheat in plentiful supply abroad and in the UK, barley will have work to do.

Rapeseed

We have seen some strong moves in commodity markets across the board this week due to the changing events we have seen in the Middle East. The strongest mover has been crude oil which saw a sharp move higher when there were threats of closing the Strait of Hormuz, which see’s roughly 20% of the world’s oil shipments. When we saw a ceasefire deal brokered by the US, this premium was all withdrawn as the impact on global supply had been emphasised as not wanting to be interrupted. This has had a significant impact on agricultural commodities, especially veg oils.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans have lost 47.2 cents week on week as a mix of easing war premium as well as favourable weather forecasts have kept the pressure on. This week’s crop progress report shows soybean harvest at 96% planted in the US, matching last year and 1% behind the 5-year average. Crop ratings were steady at 66% good/excellent. In Brazil, crush margins are under pressure due to competitive levels into China, though margins in Argentina remain positive. At present Brazil is the favourable origin for Chinese purchases as production prospects are improving. Brazil has also increased their biofuel mandate from 14% to 15%, though this hasn’t had a significant price impact so far.
• Crude oil has gained and lost over $14 in recent days due to changing war conditions. This week’s API report was bullish, though wasn’t enough to offset the downwards shift in momentum. The ceasefire is holding currently, and Trump has said that he wants to have a discussion with Iran next week about nuclear plans. Iran has now maintained an interest in exporting Oil to China, India and other Asian customers, showing that there will be less interruption to global flow than previously expected.
• Canola has also made a break lower this week, bringing an end to the rising prices we have come to get used to. Unsurprisingly, Canadian origin had reached a point of relative global competitiveness due to the opportunity for flow into the US. Now that there is a large level of stocks in canola, price has had to move in a way to bring itself back into the global scene to compete into China/Europe. Key growing regions have also received some much needed rains through the course of this week.

• MATIF rapeseed prices have fallen back to support at the top of the previous trading range that we experienced in April/May. The fall in European prices has been assisted by the EUR/USD trading to the highest level we have seen since 2021. Seasonality would suggest that harvest selling pressure should arrive next week, so with harvest on the continent broadly in line with usual, it is likely that this will keep a cap on prices for now as those who need harvest movement commit once they are confident in the yield.
  
  

Outlook
From here, there will be a keen eye on any further change out of the Iran/Israel situation, and what comes to fruition from talks with the US, though since there has been an interest in keeping global oil flowing it may be less significant unless this changes. Specifically for rapeseed, the month of July is likely to feature harvest pressure and a focus on logistics. Early yields out of France are in line to slightly higher than usual and oil content is positive. In the next week there will be more countries getting underway.

Oats

Harvest fast approaching, but what will the quality be like?

Key Factors

• Below average rainfall in Germany, Poland, France and Southern Sweden is likely to have increased moisture stress on developing crops with some areas receiving less than 25% of average over the last 2 weeks.
• Finland has received good rains over the last 2 weeks with most areas getting 200% of their average rainfall.
• Spain will soon be harvesting their next oat crop with high levels of production expected following a very favourable growing season which has seen above average rainfall. But quality is yet to be determined.
• Here in the UK uncertainty about quality and quantity remain with the heat wave last week expected to have caused some damage to crop by bringing their time to maturity forward. Light land growers are certainly suffering although heavy land growers are suggesting their spring crops are just about holding on. 
• Another heat wave forecast at the end of this week could see further damage and perhaps some barley harvesting.
• Buying demand for new crop is expected to be challenging with most millers carrying large volumes into the next season. Prices have subsequentially fallen over the last few weeks and a fall in in sterling could be the trigger which will allow some export business to be written.
  
  

Outlook
A lack of rain across large areas of Europe is going to have an impact on oat production and quality, the only question is to what extent. Time will tell.

Pulses

Recent heavy showers across the UK have provided some short-term relief to pulse crops, although the weather forecast indicates sporadic showers over the coming week with temperatures remaining warm. While some regions have benefited from rainfall, others continue to experience limited moisture, and prolonged periods of temperatures above 25°C without rain could place increasing stress on the crops. Pea vining is progressing well and making a significant impact on this year’s crop, although later drilled pulses may face reduced yield potential due to recent growing conditions.

Key Factors

• As the new season harvest approaches, the old crop pulse market is effectively complete, with most gaps now filled. The old crop/new crop inverse remains evident, and prices will need to adjust to become more competitive against EU bean values. Farmer selling activity remains subdued, but with demand largely satisfied, prices are expected to come under pressure as the harvest progresses.
• While some UK regions have seen beneficial rainfall, others have missed out on meaningful precipitation. The ongoing heatwave continues to exert stress on crops entering the final growth stages. The sporadic showers forecast over the next week should provide some support, but crop conditions will be closely monitored to assess any potential impacts on yield forecasts.
• Peas are broadly following the same trajectory as beans. Vining pea crops started the season strongly, but expectations for later drilled crops are more cautious due to recent weather challenges. Any rainfall in the coming week will be critical in supporting crop health and yield potential. On the global front, the pulse market remains quiet as many consumers await new crop supplies. Large carryover stocks of feed pulses are expected to keep near-term prices under pressure, while premiums for higher quality material will depend on post-harvest conditions. Pea prices have remained steady on a week-on-week basis.
  
  

Outlook
UK pulse crops are currently navigating mixed weather conditions, with sporadic rainfall providing intermittent relief amid sustained warm temperatures. While early vining pea crops are progressing well, later drilled pulses face potential yield risks due to heat stress and inconsistent moisture. Old crop pulse markets are winding down, with price competitiveness against European origins likely to influence farmer selling as the harvest unfolds. Globally, markets await new crop arrivals, with carryover stocks likely to exert downward pressure on prices in the short term. Continued monitoring of weather patterns and crop conditions will be essential to refining yield forecasts and market expectations in the coming weeks.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

We are now well underway with our trials days that are taking place across England. It is a brilliant opportunity to connect with our valued customers and show them varieties we have particular interest in and ones they should keep their eyes on in future years. This year we have seen yellow rust throughout lots of the varieties due to the YR15 strain that is a key talking point at the moment.

Key Factors

• A few newly recommended varieties that are proving popular this year are KWS Vibe (Group 1), KWS Solitaire (Group 3), RGT Hexton (Group 4S) and KWS Scope (Group 4H). As always, these varieties will be limited across the trade with this being their first year of recommendation.
• RGT Hexton is a real stand out variety, with high yields (particularly in the North), ideal for the second cereal position and light soils, this variety really suits numerous situations! It looks clean and will no doubt be in demand this year. Seed is limited across the trade, so it is advised to book soon to avoid disappointment.
• New OSR varieties are gaining interest from many, showing off the advancements in plant breeding. One that we are particularly excited by is Karat from NPZ Plant Breeding. The variety is a real allrounder with brilliant stem health and incredible yield potential. Currently, this is a candidate variety, but we are pleased to announce we have limited packs to offer.
• Hinsta from KWS also looks interesting, with high yields, this recommended variety has it all, including pod shatter resistance! If you are looking to try something new, this is one to be looking at.
• Within our existing portfolio, varieties like LG Academic are performing well in the field, with repeat orders already coming through. Forward crop values are holding steady at encouraging levels, helping to drive daily demand. With an increase in the UK oilseed rape area likely, we recommend placing orders sooner rather than later to avoid potential shortages.

• Another OSR variety that remains a firm favourite on farm is DK Excited. This variety works well in the early drilling slot with exceptional vigour and a solid disease package! Get in touch to find out more about this offering.
• To support the success of your OSR crop, have you considered companion cropping? Popular companion species such as fenugreek, buckwheat, and berseem clover can enhance establishment and reduce pest pressure. Available as both straights and in mixtures.
  
  

Outlook
As harvest approaches, now is the time to be booking your seed requirements ahead of Autumn drilling. We are pleased to offer several different buybacks alongside our cereals, pulses and oilseeds portfolio too. Please get in touch with your local farm trader to learn more about what we can offer and how we can work together.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
European prices rebound on heat-driven demand; US futures slide amid rising output and storage builds.

Key Factors

• European gas rose above €35/MWh before easing to the mid-€34s, recovering from a 13.7% weekly drop.
• Heatwave conditions across major cities, including Madrid (40°C) and Paris (33°C), are spiking AC demand.
• Forecasts show brief relief before hotter weather returns in late June.
• Storms continue in the Nordics and Eastern Europe under a lingering low-pressure system.
  US futures dipped toward $3.50/MMBtu as June output averaged 105.5 bcfd and LNG exports fell to 14.1 bcfd.
• Storage remains 6% above the five-year average, maintaining bearish pressure.
  A fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire is easing geopolitical risk premiums for now.
  
  

Outlook
European prices may stay supported by heat and power demand, while the US market remains weighed down by ample supply and soft LNG flows.

Nitrates
Prices edge higher as producers react to geopolitical risk, though uptake remains cautious.

Key Factors

• Yara lifted AN and CAN offers for September, following earlier August increases.
• YaraBela EXTRAN 33.5% AN now offered at €450/t bulk CPT France, up €55/t month-on-month.
• The latest price hike comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, though buying interest has been limited.
  
  

Outlook
Nitrate prices are firming on geopolitical momentum, but subdued demand may temper further gains unless buyers perceive sustained risk.

Urea
Ceasefire eases supply fears, but Indian demand and recent outages keep the market supported.

Key Factors

• The Iran-Israel conflict disrupted nitrogen markets, but a 24 June ceasefire appears to be holding.
• Iran’s urea output remains halted, with restarts expected 28 June; Egypt lost ~270,000 t of output, with partial restarts from 27 June.
• Israel’s Leviathan gas field, key to Egypt and Jordan, is also set to resume full operations this week.
• India’s RCF issued a new 2 Mt tender after the previous failed, keeping demand pressure intact.
  
  

Outlook
While restarts in Egypt and Iran ease near-term supply concerns, recent production losses and India’s urgent tendering should keep prices underpinned in the short term.

Phosphates
Tight supply lifts prices as India faces sharp drop in imports and production ahead of peak demand.

Key Factors

• DAP prices continue to rise, with some trades above current assessed highs due to limited spot availability.
• India’s May DAP sales fell 15% y/y to 557,000 t, while domestic output and imports dropped 15% and 58%, respectively.
• Jan–May figures show DAP sales down 12%, production down 14%, and imports down 23%, per FAI data.
• The data highlights tightening availability ahead of Kharif season, increasing procurement risk.
  
  

Outlook
With Indian inventories low and global spot supply constrained, DAP prices are likely to remain firm heading into peak seasonal demand.

Potash
Contract settlements support firmer prices, but signs of resistance emerge in key markets.

Key Factors

• India and China contracts have helped lift global benchmarks, with further upward adjustment expected short term.
• Granular MOP prices in Europe rose to €360–370/t CIF, up from €345–365/t two weeks prior.
  Market consensus is proving harder to reach at the top end, with Brazil showing signs of demand fatigue.
  
  

Outlook
While global contracts anchor support, softening sentiment in Brazil and buyer push back in Europe may start to cap further gains.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1716	1.1366	1.1709

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
June25	130-140	153-163	210-220	395-415