Thursday 31 July 2025

Wheat

Grain markets remained rangebound to weaker amid low trade volumes, harvest pressure, and macroeconomic uncertainty. A stronger US dollar, mixed weather patterns, and slow farmer selling framed the week. While US wheat set fresh contract lows, European prices found some support from euro weakness. Trade tariffs and harvest data continue to dominate sentiment.

Key Factors

• Chicago wheat hit new contract lows as harvest reached 80% completion. Corn and soybean markets remained subdued, facing favourable US weather and private yield models suggesting above-USDA estimates. Trade focus centred on potential US/China and US/India tariff developments, with China truce extension uncertainty lingering.
• MATIF wheat managed modest gains due to euro weakness (reversing from 4-year highs back to 1.14), supporting export competitiveness. Yet, sluggish EU soft wheat exports (down 64% YoY) highlighted weak demand. MATIF corn touched contract lows, with Nov’25 pressured by bearish technicals and lack of fresh demand.
• UK wheat harvest advanced to ~20%, showing variable yields and stable quality. However, harvest pressure remains muted. London wheat volumes stayed thin, and futures prices tracked MATIF closely, narrowing spreads and raising concerns over export viability. Milling premiums held on decent proteins and improved Hagbergs.
• Russian FOB prices firmed $10–$12/t amid slow farmer selling and delayed harvest (34% complete vs 42% last year). SovEcon raised Russia’s production and export forecasts, but figures still trail USDA projections. Short-term supply squeeze is supporting nearby cash markets more than deferred futures.
• The dollar surged to 2-month highs, driven by strong US economic data. This pressured ag commodities across the board. EU/US trade deal at 15% tariffs buoyed initial sentiment, but eyes remain on China negotiations. Global risk appetite is subdued amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and tepid demand.
  
  

Outlook
With global harvests nearing completion, the focus turns to export demand, farmer selling, and trade negotiations. The market anticipates a US–China tariff truce extension, but surprises could jolt corn and soybean prices. Meanwhile, European grains may find short-term support from currency weakness and quality concerns, though oversupply looms in Q4.             

Malting Barley

Malting markets are gaining slight support from firm feed prices and slow farmer selling as much of the spring barley crop remains unharvested, with mixed quality results, but weak demand keeps the overall outlook cautious.

Key Factors

• A slightly more supportive tone is also creeping into malting markets, with firming feed prices and a common theme of slow farmer selling, particularly as the bulk of the spring barley crop remains in the field.

• Results of the spring barley harvest continue to paint a mixed picture, with the average of samples reviewed coming inside specification, albeit variable with plenty of high N samples more than 2%. It is early days, but we can expect to see continued variation in both yield and quality of the spring crop depending on land type, following a very challenging growing season.
• Despite a more cautious tone from sellers notionally pushing values higher, demand once again is lacklustre, and it is difficult to paint a bullish picture whilst the appetite for buying malting barley remains so thin, and the European harvest is looking good.
  
  

Outlook
Expect prices to see some support over the remainder of harvest as sellers proceed with caution amid variable quality and yield results. Longer term however, unless we see a major demand change or serious quality problem, it is likely that premiums will continue to feel the pressure in today’s tricky demand picture.

Feed Barley

The feed barley market has become technical with slow spring barley harvest and farmer selling supporting prices domestically, increased demand from compounders boosting the tone, while export activity remains inactive due to uncompetitive pricing versus corn in key destination markets.

Key Factors

• The feed barley market has become rather technical over the last few weeks. The winter crop is harvested and either moved or in the barn, meanwhile the spring barley harvest is progressing slowly under mixed weather conditions, estimate at only around 25% complete nationally. This slow pace of harvest, alongside a slow pace of farmer selling, is helping to support feed barley values relative to wheat. Any discount that existed for spot movements has been squeezed out, with the window of ‘harvest pressure’ well and truly complete.
• We have seen a pickup in demand from domestic consumers this week with a few compounders taking some cover for the winter positions, which is adding to the more supportive tone.
• On the export market, activity is zero and we see nothing trading. Similar to the UK picture, other competing origins in Europe and the Black Sea have seen support on lack of farmer selling, and now barley is looking uncompetitive into EU and North Africa/Middle Eastern destinations vs corn, which will ration demand in the coming months.
  
  

Outlook
We expect that barley prices will remain supported in the short term relative to wheat, which is likely to stay rangebound, at least until we see some more selling pressure. Longer term, we still see a surplus forecast in the UK market, and the lack of destination export demand is not supportive.

Rapeseed

Markets continue to be pressured by potential record US corn and soybean crops as well as swayed by strong currency moves. The US-EU trade deal has been responsible for this as well as improving prospects for oil demand. The US has also been on a tariff mission again this week, with most recently announcing 25% tariffs on India, 15% on South Korean imports, and raising Brazil tariffs to 50%.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans have maintained their lower trade this week with positive weather forecasts. Crop conditions have improved 2% to 70% good/excellent this week. US crush rates continue to be very profitable with strong board margins, though the lack of Chinese demand is not helping provide support.
• Crude oil has found some support this week due to positive demand prospects as US trade talks are positive towards demand. OPEC+ are set to meet again this weekend to discuss possible quota increases. Expectations are for another 548,000 barrel per day increase for September. There is also the prospect of sanctions on buyers of Russian oil which is helping offset news that the US is preparing to allow Chevron to operate in Venezuela.
• Canola has traded within a narrow range this week as positive board margins which are incentivising further crusher buying is offset by farmer selling at $15/bushel. Conditions have remained positive towards crop development, which is emphasised by the early planted crop which is more resilient than norma. Last week’s weekly exports more than doubled week on week to 202,500 mt, bringing exports to date to a 45% improvement to the 3 year average.

• Rapeseed prices have also not seen any significant moves as strong yield reports from France and Germany offset poor yields in Ukraine. In The UK, harvest is mostly complete with only some patches in the North left to go. For now, we are managing to hold above the 100 day moving average which is a good sign for further positivity, though there are some key resistance levels that will need to be breached for any sustained move higher. The Rapeseed/Wheat spread continues to find support, currently trading with rapeseed just under 240% the value of wheat.
  
  

Outlook
The story is still relatively similar in that markets are trading the positive crop conditions in most corners of the world. Outside the lasting impact that volatile currency is having on our prices, the key points to watch will be how Trump continues to approach trade deals and if we are to see any change to the forecast.

Oats

Buyers remain reluctant to take further positions before knowing the quality of the crop

Key Factors

• Minimal rainfall in Finland over the last 2 weeks and above average temperatures (+4-5 degrees C) could advance crop maturity, however with good ground water reserves oat crops should be developing well. But further rainfall is needed to maximise their potential.
• Heavy rainfall in the baltics could see greater quantities of feed oats, however it is too early to assess the damage.
• Demand for higher quality milling oats into Spain is likely despite the huge harvest, this could see demand into the UK or Scandinavia in coming weeks. 
• Harvest supplies in domestic markets are satisfying local demand into key consumers areas, but as we venture into September it is likely that buyers will come back into the market to cover balances of Q4 positions and Q1’26.
• Here in the UK demand for milling oats has been restricted to nearby positions as millers look to take advantage of freshly harvested supplies.
• Quality is mixed with both winters and springs proving to be variable with screenings significantly higher than last year.
• Availability of feed grades will be higher than last year and this is likely to see greater on farm feed usage as growers will unlikely see the value in selling into the market and buying in more expensive grains like barley.
• With growing scrutiny over glyphosate use, particularly as a pre-harvest treatment, growers need to reassess their approach to ensure long-term market access.
  
  

Outlook

Quality remains the unanswered question, with millers in Europe unlikely to take much fresh cover until they see the results of the Scandinavian harvest.

Pulses

The pulse harvest has made little progress over the last week with the mixed weather and growers prioritising cereals. Yield and quality data continues to be variable, although still in line with expectations on the average. Whilst early analysis showed good quality, as we get further into the crop, they are heading towards the feed heap.

Key Factors

• As with last week, a quiet week on pulses as the trade is keen to understand how the quality of the coming crop looks, and what, if any, damage has been done by the recent storms. Quality has started to dip, although with beans still <15% cut, there is a lot of crop still to sample.
• Values remain relatively stable but uncompetitive. Imported feedstuffs continue to outprice beans in to compound rations, although the recent devaluation of GBP is helping them to look a little more appetising. Either way, feed beans into the UK domestic market need to come c. £25/mt to get a look in, and c. £10/mt lower to be export competitive.
• The UK pea harvest continues, albeit slowly, for those able to work around the frequent rain showers. Early yields were encouraging; however, a decline in performance over the past week has become evident—a trend not unexpected given the recent weather conditions.
• In terms of quality, early crops have shown good colour, but later crops are exhibiting increased levels of bleaching, again largely due to weather-related stress. One important factor to watch is the recent heatwave, which is starting to impact the soaking performance of many peas—this will need to be closely monitored in the coming weeks. A number of crops are still awaiting harvest, though we anticipate completion within the next week if conditions allow. Meanwhile across the EU, yields have come in higher than expected, despite the total planted area being significantly reduced compared to previous years. Encouragingly, consumer interest is beginning to return, with buyers now entering the market to assess quality and availability for the upcoming season. This could signal a positive shift in demand, which has been relatively subdued until now.
• The UK pea harvest continues, albeit slowly, for those able to work around the frequent rain showers. Early yields were encouraging; however, a decline in performance over the past week has become evident—a trend not unexpected given the recent weather conditions.
• In terms of quality, early crops have shown good colour, but later crops are exhibiting increased levels of bleaching, again largely due to weather-related stress. One important factor to watch is the recent heatwave, which is starting to impact the soaking performance of many peas—this will need to be closely monitored in the coming weeks.
• Several crops are still awaiting harvest, though we anticipate completion within the next week if conditions allow. Meanwhile across the EU, yields have come in higher than expected, despite the total planted area being significantly reduced compared to previous years. Encouragingly, consumer interest is beginning to return, with buyers now entering the market to assess quality and availability for the upcoming season. This could signal a positive shift in demand, which has been relatively subdued until now.
  
  

Outlook
After stumbling following the recent wet weather, the pulse harvest is starting to pick up pace again, with it likely we’ll see further progress made in the coming days, especially as cereal crops near completion. Pressure is likely to remain and sit on the values as harvest and movement pressure continue to be the key drivers.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Harvest is well underway across the UK, with our seed crops being harvested and sampled imminently. We are currently in the early stages of harvesting our wheat crops, while all our barley has now been cut and is beginning to be processed. Conversations on farm indicate that OSR drilling has started, with growers taking advantage of the dry weather before the forecasted rain arrives.

Key Factors

• For those seeking fast delivery, we have a range of varieties available, including hybrids such as DK Excited, Hinsta, and Duplo, as well as conventional varieties like Campus and Pi Pinnacle. We can also offer convenient collection options at several locations, including Thriplow, York, Peterborough, and more.
• The first AHDB harvest results have been released:
  • Karat remains a strong performer with a mean gross output of 106%. Currently a candidate variety and semi-exclusive to ADM, Karat is an excellent choice for those looking to maximise yield and explore new options.
  • Maverick continues to deliver strong results and is expected to maintain one of the highest yielding varieties on the Recommended List.
  • Both LG Academic and Hinsta show promising results in gross output and seed yield, based on current harvest data.
• In cereals, availability of new varieties such as KWS Vibe, KWS Scope, and RGT Hexton is becoming increasingly limited. This scarcity is driving strong demand for trusted alternatives like SY Cheer, Beowulf, Bamford, and Champion.
• We still have availability of the new KWS Solitaire – a Group 3 variety offering high yields and a robust disease resistance package, including Orange Wheat Blossom Midge (OWBM) resistance.
  
  

Outlook
As we approach drilling season, it’s crucial to ensure the seed bed is fine, firm, and free from compaction to give your crop the best possible start. Alongside good seed bed preparation, selecting the right variety plays a vital role in setting your crop up for optimal yield performance.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
European prices rebound on tightening supply and geopolitics; US futures slide to new low amid strong output and cooling demand.

Key Factors

• European gas futures climbed toward €35/MWh, recovering from a 12-week low of €32.36 on July 24.
• Supply concerns re-emerged as Norway’s Troll field cut flows by 5 mcm per day and the Hammerfest LNG restart was delayed by three days.
• Warmer weather is forecast across Northwest Europe, lifting near-term cooling demand.
• US President Trump has shortened his ceasefire deadline for Russia to 10–12 days, raising the risk of new sanctions that could disrupt LNG flows into Europe.

• Egypt is expected to ramp up LNG imports over the coming years, tightening long-term global balances.
• In the US, futures fell to $3.02/MMBtu, the lowest since April, as production surged to 107.5 bcfd in July, topping June’s record.
• Near-term demand has weakened due to cooler weather and lower power sector gas burn, weighing on sentiment.
• Outlooks for mid-August are beginning to show returning heat, which could revive gas demand and provide some support.
  
  

Outlook
Europe’s gas market is regaining some risk premium as supply concerns and geopolitical tensions build. US prices remain under pressure in the short term, but August heat and recovering LNG demand could support a rebound.

Ammonia
Prices surge on tightening western supply; Tampa jumps $70 per tonne for August.

Key Factors

• August’s Tampa contract was settled at $487 per tonne CFR between Yara and Mosaic, up sharply from $417 in July.
• The $70 per tonne increase reflects tightening supply in the Western Hemisphere, with North African availability remaining limited.
• Additional upward pressure is coming from reported output constraints in the US Gulf and growing concerns over potential natural gas curtailments in Trinidad.
• Eastern markets remain steady, but the firming tone west of Suez is lifting sentiment globally.
  
  

Outlook
With Western supply tightening and price signals turning bullish, ammonia is likely to remain supported through early August. Further gains will depend on the persistence of production constraints in key regions.

Nitrates and Sulphates
Momentum stalls as buyers pull back; markets now watch urea tender impact.

Key Factors

• Nitrate and sulphate markets eased last week as recent urea-driven gains lost traction, with buyers stepping back to reassess.
• A new Indian urea tender has added a layer of uncertainty, with most participants awaiting its outcome before re-entering the market.
• In Ukraine, demand for ammonium nitrate continues to strengthen, reflected in fresh tenders. Domestic producers have halted UAN production to prioritise AN output, producing 55,000 tonnes in June.
• Across Europe, summer seasonality continues to weigh on liquidity.
• Brazilian activity remains subdued following a burst of buying activity earlier in the month.
  
  

Outlook
The market remains cautious and reactive. Traders are likely to stay sidelined until clearer signals emerge from the urea tender and broader nitrogen direction into August.

Urea
Market steadies as India returns; firm global benchmarks contrast with muted European interest.

Key Factors

• India’s IPL has issued a new tender for up to 2 million tonnes of urea for shipment by 22 September, helping to stabilise market sentiment after weeks of demand absence.
• In France, harvest is winding down but granular urea buying remains limited. Offers range from €465 to €480 per tonne FCA Atlantic coast, with little volume reported.
• Urea remains price-competitive versus ammonium nitrate at €430 per tonne CPT, though some producers may be willing to negotiate to unlock demand.
• In the US, strong barge activity pushed September urea values to $460 per short ton FOB NOLA, up from $430–442 last week. Nearly 20,000 short tons changed hands, with most believed to be linked to redirected Russian cargo.
• UK imports continue to face upward pressure from FX movement. The GBP/USD has dropped below 1.3300, raising granular urea import costs by over £20 per tonne since early July due to stronger US macro performance and UK economic softness.
  
  

Outlook
India’s return should lend near-term support, but European demand remains hesitant. Currency volatility and freight sensitivity will remain key price drivers into August.

Phosphates
Prices surge as supply dries up; India tenders again while NOLA remains at highest levels since 2022.

Key Factors

• Global phosphate prices are expected to rise further in the near term, with supply exceptionally tight and few alternatives available.
• Affordability remains a concern, but buyers are largely compelled to engage as physical product becomes increasingly scarce.
• RCF in India has floated a new tender for phosphate rock and DAP/MAP, with submissions closing 8 August.
• The tender seeks two shipments of 35,000 tonnes of rock with minimum 29% P₂O₅, alongside DAP/MAP cargoes.
• At US NOLA, DAP barge prices jumped to $820 per short ton FOB on 30 July, with multiple trades recorded in the $805–820 range for August and September.
• Supply at NOLA is described as “near-absent,” with few forward vessel line-ups and minimal fresh arrivals reported.
  
  

Outlook
With physical availability at its thinnest in over a year, prices are likely to remain under upward pressure through August. A potential price reversal in Q3 will depend on improved supply and buyer affordability—neither of which appears imminent.

Potash
Bearish tones emerge in Brazil, while Indonesia sets a modest new benchmark.

Key Factors

• The potash market is showing early signs of softening, particularly in Brazil, where buying interest has eased ahead of the corn season in September.
• Many Brazilian participants are now aiming to hold prices steady, contributing to a more cautious, wait-and-see sentiment across the market.
• Globally, pricing has held relatively flat, but the latest Indonesian tender outcome has now set a new benchmark.
• Pupuk Indonesia awarded 246,000 tonnes of standard MOP at $383/t CFR, slightly above last week’s top range of $380/t CFR.
• Despite the higher settlement, the market response has been muted, with little expectation that this tender will significantly lift broader pricing.
  
  

Outlook
With Brazil on pause and the Indonesian tender now behind, prices are expected to stay stable-to-soft in the short term. A clearer direction may emerge in September, as planting demand ramps up in key markets.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1599	1.3235	1.1406

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
July25	145-155	153-173	200-210	400-410