Thursday 28 August

Wheat

Grain markets posted a choppy week, with bullish US export demand and supportive spreads early on giving way to renewed pressure from record crop ideas and rising global supply forecasts. Corn anchored the sentiment, whilst soybeans struggled for traction without Chinese demand, and wheat swung on export flows and Black Sea competition.

Key Factors

• The Pro Farmer crop tour pegged US Corn yields at 182.7bu/ac vs the USDA’s latest estimate of 188.8bu/ac, trimming output estimates. This is still a record-large production figure, but below the USDA’s latest estimates in the August 25 WASDE. New crop exports surged to 657mbu, the fastest in four years, whilst managed money cut CBOT Corn shorts to -145k contracts. Technical support at $4.01–$4.07/bu is now in focus.
• Early support from a bean oil rally pushed whole bean prices to two-month highs, though a lack of Chinese buying left new crop sales down 22% year on year. As with the Corn, Tour yields of 53bu/ac are still a record-large, but undercut the USDA’s 53.6bu/ac. Weather turning favourable caps near-term upside.
• In the US, SRW remained the cheapest FOB, underpinning sales, while Chicago outperformed Kansas as demand stayed firm. Global supply sentiment weighed, with Russia lifted to 86m t, Australia close to 34m t, and Canada seen at 36m t. EU wheat exports down 48% year on year despite larger crop, though French data incomplete.
• Coming closer to home, in Europe MATIF tracked lower, with Dec’25 getting near contract lows. EU corn yields have been trimmed to 6.93mt/ha. In both Europe and the UK, firmer basis numbers are a reflection of farmer reluctance to sell, which is also keeping London supported near the £170/t level, despite sluggish trade.
• Finally, on the Macro/Geopolitical, overview, Euro weakness has only offered limited support. Black Sea origin pressure remains, with Russian export values softening and weighing heavy on the market. Buyers, including Iran, re-entered wheat markets, though overall demand remains patchy.
  
  

Outlook
Despite strong US exports, ample global supply and favourable US weather reinforce a bearish undertone. Wheat may retain relative strength on export competitiveness, but Black Sea offers loom. Corn will likely trade within a $4.00–$4.20/bu range as farmer selling and technicals set the range. Basis-driven support underpins European and UK values in the near term, but rallies look capped into September.

Malting Barley

Malting barley prices are falling despite low farmer selling, with premiums over feed seen as sufficient amid weak demand, and pressure coming from a healthy European surplus.

Key Factors

• Malting barley markets continue to feel the pressure, and prices are once again lower on the week, despite a lack of farmer selling.
• Premiums are still more than £20 depending on location, which the market views as a sufficient level against a market struggling for demand.
• The malting barley FOB market continues to be forced lower again by continental traders, confident of the EU surplus, which continues to undermined domestic prices.
• Low Nitrogen (max 1.65%) barley remains in short supply and is attracting a premium over max 1.85%, which hasn’t existed for the last few seasons.
  
  

Outlook
Malting barley premiums are likely to come under further pressure, in the short to medium term at least, as demand remains confident of the available supply. Longer term we might see some support later in the season, depending on how much disappears into the feed heap.

Feed Barley

Feed barley prices are falling due to oversupply in the North, steady demand, and competition on the export market from corn and cheaper Baltic/Scandinavian exports.

Key Factors

• Feed barley values are coming under pressure as spot availability improves and first hand demand stays relatively quiet. This is particularly true in the North, where the poor malting quality in Scotland has led to an oversupply of feed barley, which is undermining feed prices in Northern England as the barley looks for an outlet.
• The export market is slow, and despite one or two coasters trading in the last few weeks, we are generally not connecting with demand. Feed barley is not finding much destination demand due to competition from corn, and we still see Baltic/Scandinavian origin undercutting UK prices.
• Farmer selling remains slow which is keeping prices relatively overvalued.
  
  

Outlook
With continued pressure coming to futures markets, we expect to see feed barley prices to continue to drift, particularly in the deferred positions where traders have more time to cover their sales.

Rapeseed

This week’s markets have been shaped by shifting demand signals, geopolitical uncertainty, and changing weather patterns across key producing regions. Soybeans swung between gains and losses as traders balanced the lack of Chinese demand with support from Soyoil. Crude oil volatility continues to ripple through the wider complex as conflict in Ukraine and US sanctions threats dominate headlines. Canadian canola remains pressured by favourable weather, while MATIF rapeseed has struggled for direction but ended similar to where we were a week ago.

Key factors

• Chicago soybeans traded in a choppy fashion this week, swinging on a mix of demand worries and favourable weather. Chinese buying remains noticeably absent, with fresh purchases from China continuing to focus on Brazil rather than the US. Crop condition ratings rose to 69% good/excellent – the best since 2020 – suggesting a strong yield outlook at 53.6 bushels/acre. That said, volatility in Soyoil and Meal added short-term pressure, keeping futures rangebound with little momentum to break higher.
• Energy markets remain a key driver for the veg oil complex. Crude oil tested but failed to hold above its 200-day moving average, triggering a bearish reversal midweek before recovering into Wednesday’s close. Headlines continue to swing sentiment – from talk of US-Russia energy negotiations to renewed conflict in Ukraine and potential US sanctions. Traders are also watching India closely, where tariffs due to Russian crude purchases could shift trade flows.
• Canola markets have steadily lost ground this week as earlier weather concerns faded. Initial fears of frost damage gave way to favourable conditions, with high temperatures and good soil moisture encouraging crop development. Commercials are gradually increasing production forecasts, while rains in Canada have eased stress further. Open interest positioning also shows speculative length thinning, now just 12% of total. Together, this reinforces a supply-heavy tone, weighing on futures despite occasional support from Soyoil strength.
• European rapeseed has remained rangebound, mirroring wider oilseed sentiment, though it managed to finish the week firmer. Early support from veg oils allowed prices to push back towards the €470–475 level, with EUR/USD moves adding extra lift. Farmer selling remains light, while UK consumers are content to sit back from chasing targets. Rain arriving in the UK has been well received, supporting drilling progress and improving confidence for new season plantings. Technical resistance at recent highs still caps upside.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, soybeans will remain fixated on the lack of US export sales to China, while record-large US crop potential weighs heavy. Crude oil is likely to remain headline-driven, with Ukraine, Russia, and US sanctions in sharp focus. Canadian canola faces more downside risk unless weather turns less favourable, while MATIF rapeseed should continue its rangebound trade, watching currency and planting conditions closely. In short, ample supply and geopolitical uncertainty remain the dominant themes heading into September.

Oats

Further wet weather in Scandinavia and the Baltic states continues to raise concerns over quality.

Key Factors

• Further heavy rainfall in the Baltic states over the last week is expected to see a greater percentage of oats being downgraded to feed.
• Parts of Sweden and Finland also saw rainfall last week and with more rain expected in the forecast further harvest delays should be expected. Consequentially concerns of high mycotoxin levels remain, however, yet this issue is unconfirmed.
• The demand for milling oats in Europe remains relatively poor with minimal trades being reported in the past week, although there are gaps still to cover for Q4 and onwards, however it is expected that bids will be hard to come by until the Scandinavian harvest is further ahead.
• Feed oat supplies continue to grow with downgrades from countries surrounding the Baltic Sea, but with Spain over supplied with 45-48kg/hl specific weight oats it is hard finding demand.
• Here in the UK, demand remains relatively poor with buyers largely relaxed thanks to the large carry-in of high quality oats from last year’s harvest.
• The quality of our crop is very variable with a large range of results being identified. High screenings (>6%) and low spec weights (47-49kg/hl) are becoming an ever increasing feature. 
• Yield estimates have not improved over the last week, and we could see a 25% reduction to average yields vs the 5yr average. If realised, we could see an availability of oats like that of 2023/24 which would make the 2025/26 crop the 2nd lowest in the last 9 years.
• Farmer selling remains very poor and this is likely due to the low prices and greater storage availability following very disappointing wheat harvest resulting in much lower logistical pressures. 
  
  

Outlook
Questions over quality from the Baltic and Scandinavian regions remain and if confirmed we could have seen the market bottom of oat prices, but the low demand could offset any downgrades in milling supplies. Time will tell.

Pulses

The UK pulse is entering its final throws, with most crops now done, aside from beans. To underline the strange season we continue to have, there are numerous reports of the forage harvesters already in to the maize, and grain maize being but weeks away in some areas. Yields remain exceptionally variable, and quality is starting to slide. Demand is muted, with competing feed ingredients still offering better value in most rations.

Key Points

• Bean quality remains inconsistent. Very dry samples are producing higher levels of splits and damage in the HC market, while recent showers are increasing staining in later-cut crops.

• Domestic feed bean prices are broadly unchanged again. Rapeseed meal continues to dominate on cost-efficiency, leaving beans needing to discount by ~£30/t to compete. Interest is mainly from poultry buyers willing to pay current levels.
• Early-harvested peas showed encouraging colour, but bleaching is now more prevalent, highlighting heat stress during key growth stages.
• Continental pea crops are performing above expectations, with yields exceeding earlier forecasts. Consumer demand is tentatively picking up, though overall trade remains subdued.
  
  

Outlook
As pulse harvest nears completion, market attention shifts to quality assessment. Later crops are showing more issues, meaning a steady stream is likely to head into feed channels despite the strong start.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Finally, some rain across much of the UK is creating a timely opportunity for additional oilseed rape drilling. Success in late drilling depends heavily on drilling into suitable conditions, and extensive trial data from breeding companies supports the feasibility of sowing crops well into mid-September. For more insights, check out the ADM blog on late-sown OSR in the UK: ADM Late-Sown OSR Blog.

Key Factors
Considerations for successful late drilling of OSR include:

• Selecting the right genetics.
• Drilling into moisture.
• Using establishment aids.
• Incorporating companion crops such as fenugreek, berseem clover, and buckwheat.
• Monitoring crops carefully after emergence.
  
  

ADM offers a broad portfolio of top-performing varieties tailored to different farm situations. This includes the promising candidate variety Karat from NPZ UK, which has had another strong year in trials, alongside its reliable partner Maverick. LG Academic continues to deliver consistent results in official trials and on-farm performance, while Duplo from DSV has also proven successful on farms. New variety Hinsta also looks positive with good yields and a robust disease package.

For added peace of mind, establishment schemes are available with DK Excited, included with every pack sold. Other varieties such as Aviron, Academic, and Hinsta are offered in limited quantities. These establishment scheme varieties help to reduce the risks associated with growing OSR.

Many of our OSR varieties are available for fast delivery or collection at various UK locations, ensuring you can access what you need when you need it.

Outlook
With the recent rainfall across much of the UK, conditions are becoming more favourable for additional oilseed rape drilling this season. Despite some challenges faced in recent years, OSR continues to offer one of the highest margin opportunities for growers, supported by improving average yields projected for 2025. The ability to successfully drill later into September, backed by robust trial data, opens greater flexibility to optimize sowing timing and manage workloads. Selecting the right varieties, combined with careful attention to soil moisture and establishment practices—including the use of companion crops and seed treatments—will be key to maximizing crop establishment and yield potential.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
US futures sink to nine-month low on record output; EU slips as storage builds and maintenance risk eases.

Key Factors

• US futures fell toward $2.65/MMBtu, their lowest since November 2024, as production hit 108.4 bcfd in August, a fresh record.
• Storage levels remain 5.8% above seasonal norms despite summer heat, with the latest injection slightly below the five-year average.
• European futures dipped to €33.5/MWh as curbs at Norway’s Troll field proved milder than expected, easing supply fears.
• EU storage stood at 75.5% (vs 91% a year ago), with Germany at 68.6%, Italy at 87.4% and France at 83.8%.
• Geopolitical risk persists, with Kyiv targeting Russian energy infrastructure and the US threatening more sanctions if Trump’s peace talks stall.
  
  

Outlook
US gas remains pressured by record production and soft demand, with only weather swings or storm disruptions offering short-term upside. Europe is focused on storage builds, with prices likely to stay rangebound unless geopolitical risk escalates.

Ammonia
Prices remain supported in the near term, though regional upside looks more limited.

Key Factors

• Ammonia markets continue to hold firm, with little sign of near-term downside.
• Achema restarted one of its two ammonia lines at Jonava, Lithuania, on 22 August after a three-month shutdown.
• The plant had previously halted production in mid-May due to volatile natural-gas costs and cheap fertilizer imports pressuring margins.
• Despite the restart, availability from North Africa and Trinidad remains constrained, underpinning western benchmarks.
  
  

Outlook
Prices should remain steady-to-firm into late August. Regional tightness west of Suez will support sentiment, though additional upside looks limited without further supply disruption.

Nitrates and Sulphates
Prices steady to soft, though European producers show resilience.

Key Factors

• Global nitrate demand remains subdued, with buyers largely inactive through the late-summer lull.
• European producers are holding firm, with price reductions less aggressive than anticipated.
• In the UK, CF has rolled out a January offer at a £5/t premium to its December level, signalling confidence in maintaining price discipline.
  
  

Outlook
Nitrates are likely to remain steady-to-soft into September, but producer discipline, especially in Europe, should limit sharp declines.

Urea
Market under pressure as US, Brazil, and Iran show weaker benchmarks.

Key Factors

• US NOLA: September barges slid sharply to $410/st FOB on 25 August, down from $423/st earlier in the week and $430–440/st just a week prior, as trade liquidity thins.
• Brazil: CFR values weakened further to $460/t, with Qatar-origin cargo offered at $465/t and bids reported as low as $450/t CFR for Vitoria. Last week’s index stood notably higher at $480–495/t CFR.
• Iran: Granular urea was marked down aggressively to $405/t FOB for prompt shipment as producers look to clear inventory, with around 180,000 t thought to be available. Pardis alone is reported to be sitting on ~300,000 t of stocks.
• Global sentiment is softening after India’s recent large tender secured volumes, while other buyers are showing resistance at current prices.
  
  

Outlook
The market is tilting bearish near term, with US and Brazilian benchmarks under pressure and Iranian material adding to oversupply. Unless India or another major importer re-enters quickly, further price slippage cannot be ruled out.

Phosphates
Stability emerges as ceiling signs appear, but supply tightness keeps prices elevated.

Key Factors

• Prices have flattened in recent weeks after months of consistent gains, with market sentiment increasingly pointing to a ceiling being reached earlier and lower than expected.
• News of additional Chinese export quota allocations last week (700,000 t DAP/MAP) has cooled bullish momentum, adding potential supply to the system.

• Despite the shift in sentiment, overall availability remains exceptionally tight, keeping prices pinned near multi-year highs even as buyers resist further increases.
• Poor affordability continues to weigh on demand, though with few substitutes available, buyers remain largely compelled to engage.
  
  

Outlook
While the market may have peaked in the near term, any significant downside is capped by supply tightness. Prices are likely to hold firm at elevated levels into early September, even as demand shows growing resistance.

Prices steady to soft as Brazil signals first decline in months.

Key Factors

• The Brazilian market, which has been the primary driver of recent strength, recorded its first price drop after months of steady gains, suggesting momentum is fading.
• Seasonal demand slowdown, particularly post-soybean, is weighing on buying appetite in Brazil and across other major regions.
• Southeast Asia is preparing for its tender season, which may provide fresh direction, while India and China continue into their peak demand windows.
• Broader sentiment remains cautious, with buyers resisting further increases and suppliers reluctant to cut aggressively.
  
  

Outlook
Prices are likely to remain flat to soft in the near term, with Brazil leading the direction. Any firming may hinge on Southeast Asian tender outcomes or stronger-than-expected seasonal buying.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1593	1.3495	1.1637

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Aug25	140-150	151-171	200-210	385-395