Thursday 24 July 2025

Wheat

Grain markets have chopped through the week, lacking clear directional momentum. Supportive global fundamentals and slow farmer selling combined to offer brief strength, but each rally was swiftly met by technical resistance and profit-taking. Corn found limited support on weather risks and a lagging Brazilian harvest, whilst wheat faced pressure from Northern Hemisphere harvests and soft export pace.

Key Factors

• The announcement that Coca-Cola will partially replace high fructose corn syrup with cane sugar raised demand concerns. HFCS production accounts for 400mbu of US corn, with Coke using nearly 23% of this. However, confirmation from the company remains pending and market reaction has been relatively muted since.
• Russia has cut its wheat export forecast to 43–44mmt (from 45mmt), and July exports lag last year by nearly 2mmt. Ukrainian exports are similarly weak. Rising Russian FOB values indicate limited near-term supply, but this is seen as a logistical bottleneck rather than a structural issue.
• Western Europe’s wet forecast is threatening to delay harvest progress on the continent and reduce crop quality, particularly in the UK and Germany. Whilst EU soft wheat yields are trending above the 5-year average, uncertainty over protein content in French wheat is helping support nearby MATIF spreads.
• MATIF September wheat failed to hold above the key psychological level of €200/mt, whilst London wheat continues to struggle with resistance at £180/mt. Bollinger band squeezes, narrowing spreads, and channel trends suggest markets are poised for a directional breakout—but remain stuck in tight ranges for now.
• The IGC maintains a balanced corn S&D for 2025/26, projecting production of 1.276bmt against 1.272bmt demand. Wheat remains tighter, with 808mmt of output forecast vs 814mmt of demand. Yet rallies have struggled to gain traction amid harvest pressure and weak export demand.
  
  

Outlook
The path forward hinges on harvest pace, export flow recovery, and US weather. While near-term supply tightness is giving wheat some lift, rallies remain capped by strong technical resistance and lack of fresh demand drivers. Expect continued volatility with a downside bias unless bullish catalysts materialise.

Malting Barley

Harvest progress in Europe remains positive, meanwhile UK harvesting is temporarily paused due to rain. Markets continue to face low consumer demand that is suppressing prices despite limited farmer selling.

Key Factors

• There is very little to report on the week. Harvest results in Europe continue to look positive, keeping the surplus comfortably in the S&D.
• The harvest in the UK has paused as widespread rains roll through, although the winter crop is largely complete now, it is still early for harvesting springs, so this doesn’t bring any significant concern. Early spring results are mixed, but we are seeing plenty of good quality samples.
• Markets continue to struggle with slow consumer demand, which is keeping a lid on prices despite the continued lack of farmer selling.
  
  

Outlook
Unless we see a major deterioration in yields/quality for the UK spring harvest, it is likely that malting prices and premiums will continue to feel pressure as the demand deficit continues to rule sentiment, despite a pause for breath over the last week.

Feed Barley

With the winter barley harvest mostly finished in England, availability and farmer selling has paused. Spot price discounts are narrowing as farmers hold back tonnage, but deferred positions face pressure from weak demand and uncompetitive export pricing.

Key Factors

• We are seeing a pause in barley availability and farmer selling as rains hamper the progress of the spring harvest.
• The significant price discount that has existed for spot movements is starting to get squeezed out on short covering, as farmers withhold tonnage from the market.
• The deferred positions are starting to feel some more pressure from a ‘basis’ perspective, as demand is lagging, and we remain outpriced for exports demand later in the season.
  
  

Outlook
Flat price movements should continue to follow the lead of wider macro grain markets. Barley in isolation is looking expensive and we expect will need to push lower to unlock demand as we head into the season, however in the short term we could see continued support if farmers continue to hold volumes from the market.

Rapeseed

It has been a choppy week for agricultural markets, though the focus is very much the same in potential progress towards trade deals as well as global weather forecasts. We have seen China meet with the EU to attempt to foster a more positive trade relationship going forward. China is also set to meet with the US early next week to have a similar discussion. Broadly speaking global weather events continue to lean positive towards crop production which has capped any major gains.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans have returned to lower trade this week and have confirmed a move into a downtrend. This week, rainfall has been positive again, though has not brought relief to the small area in drought. Crop conditions showed a 2% shift from good to excellent but a 4% drop in good levels.  EU soybean imports as of 20th July hit 520,000mt vs. 770,000mt for the same period last year. ANEC estimates Brazil July bean exports at 12.11mmt, lower than last week’s estimate of 12.19.

• Crude oil has had a very slow moving week this week in a relatively narrow range. On Friday, the European Union agreed new sanctions on Russian oil and energy which would include a move on price cap on Russian oil at 15% below the average market. The US Energy secretary has also said that sanctioning Russian oil to end the Ukraine war is a very real possibility. Crude stocks remain low and have fallen again this week, though less than was expected so managed to keep price next to unchanged.
• Canola prices have taken back early losses this week to climb back towards the 100 day moving average. Southern regions in the Prairies have had good amounts of rain this week which has helped relieve some plants that were in poor condition. All being well, there is potential for some upwards crop revisions in August, as long as we don’t see any significant heat stress.
• In a similar vein, rapeseed prices have also come back towards unchanged for the week on support from the wider veg oil complex. Prices are now trading within the range that we have seen for the majority of the last 4 months. In the EU, MARS observatory increased their yield estimates to 3.20 t/Ha from 3.18 t/Ha last month. In Australia, the forecast has improved and looks to bring relief to some regions which have been dry. There will have been some irreversible damage done, though this will help condition for the crop going forward.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, the picture has not changed significantly in the past week. The main point of note is the improving forecast in Australia as that was the main area for concern. Outside this the focus will remain on significant currency moves continuing to pressure out markets as China continue their plans and as groups decide how they would like to restrict Russian oil. Seasonality does still point lower for the next week before we see a lift in August as we approach the end of harvest.

Oats

Demand remains poor and prices remain flat to weaker in the oat market.

Key factors

• Good growing conditions in Scandinavia continue to aid ideas of ample milling grade oats to supply European markets, however with harvest yet to commence some risk remains.
• Bids from European millers continue to be hard to come by with German millers suggesting that they still have more Q4 oats to buy but are waiting for harvest to commence before taking any more cover.

• The potential for further bids could see prices recover if farmer selling remains poor and/or quality becomes a concern.
• Spain will be looking to buy some high-grade milling oats in the coming months but are requesting new crop samples before deciding.
• Demand for feed oats is currently very hard to find with buyers currently taking advantage of local new crop seller.
• Here in the UK prices have dropped to a level which has made sellers very reluctant, consequentially farmer selling is very poor as they look for better prices in the weeks to come.
• Quality results of both winters and springs that have been processed through our lab have been variable with some winter oat samples testing more than 10% screenings. However, it is too early to draw any true conclusions of the crop given the pool of samples processed thus far.
• Milling prices feel like they have reached a bottom given feed prices are at similar levels.
• With growing scrutiny over glyphosate use, particularly as a pre-harvest treatment, growers need to reassess their approach to ensure long-term market access.
  
  

Outlook

If the Scandinavian oat crop is harvested in good condition, then we should see prices remain at these levels, however if there is an issue and this coincides with poor UK quality then we could see prices bounce off these lows. 

Pulses

The thunderstorms of last weekend have certainly slowed progress on the Pulse harvest, although people are still cutting. Early yield data suggests it is in line with expectations on the average, although like many other crops, yields are all over the place. Whilst early analysis showed good quality, as we get further into the crop, they are heading towards the feed heap.

Key Factors

• Another quiet week on pulses as the trade is keen to understand how the quality of the coming crop looks, and what, if any, damage has been done by the recent storms. Yields are all over the place, however seeming to average around expectations. Quality is starting to be a little more variable, it will be interesting to see if the recent rainfall has done anything to increase the level of staining in beans.

• Values are relatively stable for now, but remain under pressure further forward – alternative feedstuffs such as Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal are still aggressive in to compound diets, combined with cheap wheat on the cereal leg, feed beans into the UK domestic market need to come c. £25/mt to get a look in.
• UK combinable pea harvest has started early. While initial yields are below last year’s, the early crops have generally performed well. However, wet weather over the past week may affect the yield and quality of the remaining crop. There is also concern that later crops could follow the trend of declining vining pea yields, though it’s still too early to be certain.
• Scattered showers are likely to slow harvest progress, and the impact of the recent heatwave on the crop remains unclear.
• Overall quality of the pea crop is still being assessed based on early samples but so far look well. Consumer demand has slowed but is starting to pick up, although it remains below levels seen in previous years, putting short-term pressure on prices.
  
  

Outlook
Harvest continues to rumble on for Pulses, although other crops are starting to be prioritised where they are less sensitive to standing in the field a little longer in less than ideal conditions compared to cereal crops. The trade continues to execute a mix of new and old crop in to homes with movement becoming king. Expect nearby pressure to remain and sit on the values as harvest and movement pressure continue to be the key drivers.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As the oilseed rape drilling window approaches, it is essential to ensure seed bed conditions are ideal to give the crop the best possible start. A critical factor in achieving successful establishment is varietal choice. Our carefully selected OSR portfolio is designed to perform well across a range of drilling timings and agronomic conditions, providing flexibility and reliability for growers.

Key Factors

• Vigorous Hybrids for Later Drilling: For later drilling, selecting a vigorous hybrid is vital to ensure robust establishment. Our go-to vigorous varieties, Duplo and Aviron, consistently deliver strong performance. Duplo, one of DSV’s triple-layer varieties, offers resistance to TuYV, pod shatter, and Phoma stem canker (Rlm7 multigene). It has proven high yielding across the country, with reports of 5t/ha achieved on a Norfolk farm.
• Early Drilling Options: For early drilling slots, DK Excited is a standout variety available on an establishment scheme. The scheme is designed to support farmers under challenging conditions. DK Excited combines excellent establishment potential with a robust disease resistance package. This variety is available for fast delivery.
• Establishment Scheme: Hinsta from KWS is also available on the establishment scheme (like DK Excited) and ranks as the third highest yielding variety on the Recommended List. It boasts a comprehensive disease resistance profile, making it a dependable choice.
• Cereal Seed Outlook: In cereals, new varieties such as KWS Vibe, KWS Scope, and RGT Hexton are becoming increasingly scarce, driving demand for alternatives like SY Cheer, Beowulf, Bamford and Champion. Meanwhile, LG Caravelle and LG Capitol remain popular barley choices, with LG Capitol performing particularly well in the latest AHDB harvest results.
  
  

Outlook
As drilling approaches, it’s critical to monitor seed bed conditions closely and select varieties that align with your requirements. Whether you are planting early or later, our portfolio provides reliable options to help you maximize yield potential and manage disease risk effectively.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
European prices hold steady near recent lows as strong LNG flows and flexible storage targets ease supply concerns; US futures dip on mild weather and high output.

Key Factors

• European gas futures hovered around €33/MWh, their lowest in over two weeks, with supply outlook stable despite extended maintenance at Norway’s Troll field.
• LNG imports remain strong, outpacing Asian demand and helping rebuild EU storage, now above 65% (vs 83% last year).
• Germany, Italy, and France are at 57%, 77%, and 73% storage respectively.
• EU lawmakers extended the deadline to reach 90% storage from September to December, reducing seasonal pressure.
• US gas futures fell below $3.1/MMBtu, the lowest since April, on forecasts for less intense heat and strong production.
• Output in the Lower 48 reached 107.2 bcfd, surpassing June’s record, while LNG exports rose to 15.8 bcfd as facilities recovered from outages.
  
  

Outlook
EU gas markets remain calm as storage fills steadily and LNG inflows stay robust. In the US, softer weather forecasts and surging supply continue to weigh on prices, even amid seasonal demand.

Ammonia
Prices hold steady with a firm undertone as regional supply shifts and curtailment risks balance the market.

Key Factors

• Ammonia markets remain stable this week, with an overall bias to the upside driven by ongoing supply constraints.
• Maintenance at Ma’aden has concluded, improving Middle East availability, though tightness is expected in Southeast Asia as Parna Raya prepares for an upcoming outage.
• Output in North Africa remains restricted, with potential gas curtailments in Trinidad drawing close market attention due to their possible impact on ammonia production and exports.
  
  

Outlook
While some regional production is returning, risks of disruption elsewhere continue to support a steady to firm market profile heading into August.

Nitrates and Sulphates
AN holds flat as buyers wait for clarity from urea; AS eases slightly as recent momentum fades.

Key Factors

• Ammonium nitrate remains stable, with buyers largely inactive and waiting for clearer signals from the urea market.
• UK AN shows little movement, with limited appetite and restricted imports beginning to raise early concerns about Q4 availability.
• European producers remain comfortable, supported by steady domestic demand and no pressure to lower prices.
• Ammonium sulphate is showing signs of softening, as last week’s urea-led substitution support begins to ease.
  
  

Outlook
Nitrate markets are expected to stay flat in the short term, with potential volatility returning once urea finds clearer direction. Sulphates may drift lower if substitution demand continues to weaken.

Urea
Market pauses as traders weigh short-covering risk against softening spot interest ahead of India’s next move.

Key Factors

• India’s RCF finalised its tender on 17 July, confirming 1.464 million tonnes for shipment by 22 August.
• India is expected to require around 2.2 million tonnes by the end of September, with a follow-up tender likely in the 1 to 1.5 million tonne range.
• In the US, NOLA urea peaked at $442 per short ton FOB on 18 July but has since eased, with limited trade as the season winds down.
• Egyptian producers are seeing little export interest this week. Production is running at 70 to 80 percent of capacity, with peak domestic demand absorbing some volume.
• Offers at $500 per tonne FOB are largely ignored, with limited buying interest in the $470s.
• Traders running short books are hesitant to wait too long, fearing a renewed rally if India re-enters. Meanwhile, producers may start lowering offers to manage rising inventory.
  
  

Outlook
The market is in a holding pattern, caught between low spot demand and the looming possibility of another Indian tender. Any decisive move from India or aggressive short covering could quickly shift momentum.

Phosphates
Prices continue to climb, though pace may slow as buyers resist and tender activity pauses.

Key Factors

• DAP and MAP prices have not yet peaked, with further upward movement expected in the near term.
• Indian importers are likely to pause new tenders briefly, while Brazilian buyers are pushing back against current MAP levels.
• US and European demand remains subdued, adding weight to slowing momentum.
• Market participants are watching closely for updates on possible Chinese export quota expansions.
• In the US, a July TSP barge traded at $652 per short ton FOB NOLA on 21 July, just above last week’s assessment of $650.
• DAP spot values rose to $740 per short ton FOB NOLA, up from $725–735 the previous week and from $555–562 in December 2024.
• August–September DAP barges traded on 18 July at $745 and $748 FOB NOLA.
  
  

Outlook
While fundamentals remain tight, particularly for TSP and DAP, a temporary slowdown in buying activity from key regions may moderate the pace of increases. However, overall direction remains upward unless Chinese export supply opens significantly.

Potash
Market steadies as demand softens, but Indonesia tender could reignite momentum.

Key Factors

• After several weeks of gains, potash prices have levelled off as global demand begins to ease.
• The market is now focused on the Pupuk Indonesia tender, which has the potential to influence pricing despite the seasonal slowdown.
• Suppliers have submitted counteroffers around $400 per tonne CFR, with the buyer’s response expected to shape the next direction.
• Broader activity remains limited, but sentiment stays cautiously firm as participants await a trigger.
  
  

Outlook
Price action is likely to hinge on the outcome of the Indonesia tender. A strong result could break the current plateau and restore upward pressure heading into late Q3.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1535	1.3580	1.1768

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
July25	140-150	153-173	200-210	395-405