Thursday 21 August

Wheat

Global grains traded lower through the week despite strong U.S. exports, with Chicago wheat repeatedly hitting new contract lows. Corn steadied near $4/bu as the Pro Farmer tour confirms expectations of record yields, albeit below USDA’s record forecasts, while soybeans flattened after last week’s rally. European cash markets stayed tight & well supported on slow farmer selling, in contrast with weak futures.

Key Factors

• US exports strong but ignored: HRW wheat exports hit a 10-year high and U.S. forward corn sales a 4-year high, yet futures slid to fresh lows as record supply outweighed demand. Funds remain net short and well-positioned for a bearish market, but less aggressively than last year.
• Corn outlook mixed: Brazil’s crop estimates widened between 132–150m tons, while Pro Farmer’s early findings showed yields below USDA’s 188.8bpa projection but still record high. U.S. corn stabilised around $4/bu, awaiting clarity on final yields.
• Soybean spreads in play: Soybeans swung sharply post-WASDE, with price strength potentially encouraging acreage shifts in South America. U.S. exports remain slow, with China relying heavily on Brazilian supply. U.S. growers look to political support for export sales.
• Europe bifurcated: MATIF and London wheat futures posted fresh lows, but spot demand from North Africa, Morocco and even Thailand lifted nearby premiums, with France the beneficiary. Reluctant farmer selling kept Sep contracts firm relative to deferred positions, flattening carries.
• Geopolitics steady but unresolved: Trump’s meetings with Putin and Zelenskiy showed little movement on a peace deal, but we see little war premium left in global grain markets. Russian production estimates rose above USDA’s, while exports remain slow, allowing France to pick up business.
  
  

Outlook
Grains face heavy supply pressure with record U.S. acreage and rising Black Sea output, limiting rally potential. Corn’s ability to hold $4/bu amid yield uncertainty will be key for wheat direction. Nearby European premiums may persist, but overall the market feels oversold rather than fundamentally bullish.

Malting Barley

The malting market remains quiet with low liquidity. Harvest is mostly complete with mixed quality, but overall supply looks sufficient. The Scottish crop is underperforming, though lower distilling demand is easing concerns. FOB values are weakening amid ample European supply, while domestic prices stay supported for now by limited farmer selling.

Key Factors

• Another slow activity week in the malting market which, like feed, is struggling for liquidity.
• The harvest is now largely complete, with variable quality results, although we maintain the view that there is sufficient usable quality to supply the market.
• The Scottish crop is struggling on both Nitrogen content and screenings, but with lower distilling demand, this does not seem to be spooking buyers.
• FOB values are coming under pressure, as supply in Europe looks ample and continental traders keep looking for demand. Relatively speaking, domestic markets have remained supported on a lack of farmer selling, but we could see pressure start to creep in once farmers start to make sales.
  
  

Outlook
We expect to see malting premiums drift lower, in sympathy with lower FOB markets given a comfortable supply (barring some regional/quality imbalances). However, as this premium gets squeezed, flat prices become more susceptible to a feed/futures driven rally.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets are slow due to limited farmer selling and sluggish demand. Nearby prices are easing with better supply, as are deferred values as sellers start to hunt more keenly for demand.

Key Factors

• Feed barley markets have been once again very slow over the last week, primarily because of slow farmer selling which once again is starving the market of liquidity.
• Nearby prices are coming under some pressure however, as nearby availability improves, giving the shorts some room to breathe.
• Domestic consumers are, overall, sidelined. We are not seeing a great deal of consumer interest going forward into the winter, and merchants remain keen to sell deferred prices in ahead of the eventual arrival of supply. The North, in particular, is feeling some pressure as the Scottish malting crop struggles to make quality bringing a flood of feed barley onto the market.
• Export markets are generally slow, although we have seen some small quantities trade over the last week for Aug-Sep. Deferred export demand remains a long way away as today’s barley prices still look uncompetitive vs other products.
  
  

Outlook
We expect that feed barley prices will remain rangebound in the short term, unless we see a major move in futures. We don’t see considerable downside to prices with such slow origination, however upside is also limited with demand lagging and pressure to wider grain markets.

Rapeseed

Agricultural markets have been mixed this week as traders balance optimism over crop conditions with uncertainty surrounding geopolitics and energy markets. The Pro Farmer crop tour has confirmed expectations for strong US soybean yields, while South American exports continue to weigh on sentiment. Crude oil remains range-bound, with prices influenced by shifting expectations around Russian supply. Canola and MATIF rapeseed have struggled under speculative selling and currency moves, though short-term technical support levels have provided some stability.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans traded both sides of unchanged this week. The Pro Farmer tour suggested pod counts remain well above average, reinforcing expectations of strong yields. Export sales offered brief support, though large Brazilian shipments and weaker EU demand remain headwinds. Technically, soybeans remain capped by resistance near recent highs, with downside momentum tied closely to energy market signals for biofuel demand. Soyoil has found some pressure from news that the USDA will no longer support solar and wind projects on productive farmland, this brings fears that the Trump Administration may not be as supportive of greed diesel as initially expected.
• Crude oil prices also fluctuated within a narrowing range, with gains capped by expectations that Russian supply could return should peace negotiations advance. Reports of Indonesia’s plans to expand refining capacity added some longer-term optimism, though near-term sentiment remains cautious. The focus for crude will remain on any fresh news surrounding Russia/Ukraine talks.
• Canola has been less volatile this week, first breaking below its 200-day moving average before stabilising as speculative selling slowed. Reports of frost in parts of Eastern Canada helped slow selling, though overall crop conditions remain favourable. Commercial buying interest and firm crush margins have acted as a counterbalance. There have been reports that COFCO have bought a Panamax of Australian canola that is destined to China which would be the first purchase of its kind since 2020, though the validity of this purchase is uncertain.
• MATIF rapeseed futures have remained between €470 and €480 so far this week, as currency movements and imported supply dynamics dictated price action. EU crush margins have come under some pressure, while Canadian meal continues to compete aggressively into the region since still being subject to Chinese tariffs. Despite downside momentum earlier in the week, a pause in EUR/USD strength has helped control additional losses, leaving the market consolidating around key technical support.
  
  

Outlook
The oilseed complex faces a balancing act in the coming week. Soybeans look heavy with Brazilian competition and strong US crop prospects, while crude oil direction will remain pivotal. Canola will need fresh demand or weather threats to convincingly recover above broken chart support, while MATIF rapeseed seems likely to remain range-bound until either currency or trade flows shift.

Oats

Wet weather in Scandinavia and the Baltics raises concerns of high mycotoxins and potential losses in milling quality.

Key Factors

• Heavy rain in Scandinavia and the Baltic states over recent weeks and in the forecast are expected to result in some downgrades to feed, however this is yet to be quantified given that harvest is still ongoing.
• Milling oat trades continue to be largely unreported, with buyers largely pricing up existing supply contracts rather than fresh business, something that is more likely to feature in September/October once the main consumers come into the market.
• Feed oat supplies are expected to increase, and this is weighing on markets into Western Europe, bids are few and far between but given the low prices farmers are reluctant to lock into below cost of production values and this is helping to stem the negative price action currently.
• Here in the UK, the quality of our crop is becoming increasingly evident. Samples that we have analysed through our TASSC assured lab are revealing a greater proportion of substandard milling oats with both low specific weights and high screenings being the main issues.
• Yields are widely reported to be disappointing with the average likely to be close to a 25% reduction to the 5yr average and with oat prices being so low this could see less supplies making their way to the market with farmers preferring to feed their oats on farm rather than buying other feed products.
• Farmer selling in general is very poor and unless we see a strong pickup in prices, we could see farmers shut the door until later in the season, the disappointing wheat crop is enabling them to do this as storage is no longer an issue.
• Demand from millers and feed compounders alike anecdotally remain relatively poor and with a large carry-in of high quality milling oats we could see spot prices remain low in the short term.
  
  

Outlook
Poorer quality than initially expected in the key EU exporting nations could have a positive impact on European milling markets, however it remains unknown whether this potential lower supply is offset against a lower demand. But we can conclude that feed oats will remain hard to sell.

Pulses

The UK pulse harvest continues to rumble on, with cereals now complete affording them more of a focus. Yields continue to be highly variable, but the average continues to be nothing to write home about. Demand remains stagnant, with other feedstuffs far more appetising from a price perspective.

Key Factors

• Bean quality is very variable at the moment. Low moistures correlate to high levels of broken/split beans within the HC markets, and staining has started to increase where beans stood in the rain.
• Another steady week on domestic feed bean values, with rapeseed meal still than standout buy, meaning beans need to be c. £20/t cheaper delivered. Interest is still largely confined to poultry buyers, who can afford to pay these inflated levels.
• Early-cut pea crops showed good colour, however bleaching levels are increasing, a reflection of the heat stress the crop has experienced.
• EU pea yields continue to look positive and exceed forecasts. Consumer interest is showing signs of returning, although the market is still quiet.
  
  

Outlook
With harvest coming to a close on pulses, the focus will continue to be on quality and understanding what is out there. Later harvested crops do appear to be of a lower quality, and so expect a steady flow into the feed heap, despite the promising start.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

With all eyes on the weather forecast looking for some signs of precipitation – many growers are still optimistic regarding the potential to drill winter oilseed rape this autumn for Harvest 2026. OSR in gross margin terms still represents one of the highest margin opportunities on farm, and although the crop has had challenges over recent years, average yields are higher for 2025 than we have seen for some time. It is key to drill to conditions and there is plenty of trials data from breeding companies in relation to the ability to sow successful crops right into the middle of September.

Key Factors

• ADM Agriculture have a range of the best varieties within the portfolio to suit your farm situation – including the candidate variety Karat from NPZ UK which has had another excellent year in trial – along with its stable mate Maverick.  LG Academic has been a mainstay of the portfolio for some years – giving consistent performance once again in the official trials and on farm performance. Duplo from DSV which has also performed well on farm is available.
• Establishment Schemes are available on DK Excited and included with every pack sold, while Aviron, Academic, and Hinsta are available in limited quantities. Establishment scheme varieties help to reduce risk of growing OSR.
• We also have clubroot resistant varieties including Crusoe available for growers in areas with known problems of land infected with common strains of clubroot.
• For growers taking advantage of companion cropping options with SFI agreements – or as part of a strategy to help defer flea beetle – we have a number of straights and mixtures available for immediate dispatch.
• Next day delivery along with same day collections from various locations across the country mean that when conditions allow – we are well placed to service your requirements.
• Winter wheat processing is in full flow, and the early harvest has helped the processing thus far – however we believe that there is a still a significant proportion of the seed market to come forward and as such – prompt ordering of your required varieties/dressings will aid delivery within the required window.
• Looking at the official wheat trials – the new candidates continue to perform well – so these are worth keeping a close eye on for sowing in autumn 2026 – but the two new varieties KWS Scope and KWS Solitaire are both performing well giving solid options for those looking for a new hard feed or soft biscuit wheat respectively.
• For those looking at quality wheats – SY Cheer, Skyfall and Crusoe remain available.
  
  

Outlook
Getting harvest 26 off to the best start, by selecting the right variety, with the right seed treatment to support early development is crucial – and planning and collaborating closely with trusted suppliers will enable growers to be best positioned to navigate the opportunities and challenges that present themselves.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
US pressured by record supply; Europe steady at lows on easing geopolitical risk.

Key Factors

• US futures slipped below $2.8/MMBtu, near nine-month lows, as production averaged 108.1 bcfd in August, slightly above July’s record.
• Storage remains heavy, with inventories 7% above seasonal norms after a 56 bcf injection for the week ended 8 August.
• LNG feedgas demand averaged 16.2 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July, while hot weather supports near-term demand.
• European futures held around €31/MWh, their lowest since May 2024, as supply stayed firm and demand softened amid cooler weather.
• EU storage levels reached 74% versus 90% a year ago, with Germany at 67%, Italy at 86%, and France at 82%.
• Geopolitical risk eased after Trump proposed a trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelenskiy, fueling hopes of reduced sanctions on Russian energy.
  
  

Outlook
US prices remain under pressure from record output and robust storage, with weather offering the main upside risk. In Europe, strong supply and steady storage builds suggest rangebound trading, though peace talks could reshape energy flows if sanctions ease.

Ammonia
West supported by tight supply, East steadier on balanced fundamentals.

Key Factors

• Prices in the West were expected to remain stable-to-firm through mid-to-late August, supported by ongoing supply constraints.
• East of Suez, the market looked more balanced, with supply-demand fundamentals keeping prices steady.
• Limited North African availability continued to underpin sentiment, while buyers remained cautious amid seasonally thin demand.
  
  

Outlook
West of Suez prices should stay supported into Q4, while East of Suez stability is likely to persist unless new supply disruptions emerge.

Urea
Market steadies on India tender and China export shift; US and Brazil show early signs of softness.

Key Factors

• India’s latest tender came earlier than expected, with market focus now on how much China will release, currently estimated at 700,000 t in the third allocation round.
• Chinese restrictions on exports to India have reportedly been lifted, opening the door for additional supply.
• US NOLA barge values slipped $15/t since 14 August for September shipment as trading thinned.
  • Brazil is unlikely to absorb the ~500,000 t left over from India’s IPL tender, adding to global supply pressure.
  
  

Outlook
India’s tender should provide near-term stability but growing Chinese availability and softer demand in Brazil and the US point to downside risk into September.

Phosphates
Market steadies as buyers resist high offers; fresh China quota adds supply, but demand caps remain in place.

Key Factors

• Global availability stayed tight, but Brazilian MAP buying stalled and US buyers avoided fresh imports on poor affordability.
• India’s ceiling of $810/t CFR continues to cap DAP purchases, with HURL’s 50,000 t tender closing Today, 21 August unlikely to break above it.
• Bangladesh’s 500,000 t DAP/TSP tender was expected to absorb most of China’s remaining quota allocation.
• However, indications suggest that a second round of export quota allocation had just been released, with an additional 700,000 t of DAP/MAP understood to be made available.
  
  

Outlook
The late quota release provides short-term supply relief, but with affordability constraints and capped Indian pricing, upside remains limited. Market direction now hinges on how quickly China’s fresh volumes are placed and whether South Asian tenders lift demand.

Potash
Prices flat-to-soft as Brazilian demand fades; Southeast Asia tenders now in focus.

Key Factors

• Brazilian prices came under pressure with the end of the soybean season, reducing near-term buying appetite.
• Global demand remains subdued, with little momentum across major consuming regions.
• Southeast Asia is preparing for its tender season, which could provide clearer market direction.
  
  

Outlook
With Brazil quiet and global demand muted, prices are likely to remain flat or drift lower in the short term. Attention now shifts to Southeast Asia’s tenders for potential cues on the next move.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1547	1.3453	1.1649

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Aug25	140-150	149-169	200-210	385-395