Thursday 10 July

Wheat

Global grain markets are under pressure amid strong US and South American crop prospects, collapsing corn prices, trade tensions, and mixed weather across key growing regions. Corn has broken below critical $4/bu support, wheat harvests are advancing in the Northern Hemisphere, and soybeans are also sliding. Markets await Friday’s USDA WASDE report for clearer direction.

Key Factors

• Chicago corn broke below $4/bu, triggering bearish momentum, with near ideal US weather and an accelerated South American harvest adding supply pressure. A potential record US yield and weak global demand have pushed futures to new lows, with limited support even as ethanol production increases.
• Northern Hemisphere wheat harvests are gaining pace, especially in France and Russia. Protein concerns are surfacing, but yields are generally good. Rain is delaying progress in some regions of Eastern Europe but a dry/settled forecast further West should allow pace to accelerate. MATIF wheat is showing modest gains while UK wheat markets are quiet, awaiting harvest clarity.
• Lack of US-China trade progress and Trump’s new tariffs on Japan and South Korea — two top US corn buyers — are damaging sentiment. With a 1^st August deadline looming and no breakthroughs in sight, the market is pricing in a crop season without significant Chinese demand.
• Soybeans and related oilseed markets are struggling under perfect growing conditions in the US and the absence of trade support. Massive yield forecasts and net fund selling continue to weigh on futures, with no relief expected unless demand surprises emerge, or weather turns hostile.
• European weather remains mixed: heat returns to the West aiding harvests, while the East deals with rain. EU wheat yields are solid, potentially at the expense of protein content, but this is expected to balance out with Matif deliverable quality gaining market share as harvests advance North. Barley stands out with strong output, with Strategie Grains adding 700kmt to their production figure month on month. Export demand remains weak, further pressuring market sentiment and prices.
  
  

Outlook
Markets are consolidating ahead of Friday’s USDA report, but sentiment remains bearish, with ample supply and no demand catalysts in sight. Unless the weather shifts or trade deals surprise, corn could face further downside having punched through new lows on consecutive days this week. Wheat must compete with cheap corn, whilst soybeans need demand revival to reverse their slide.

Malting Barley

Malting markets face weak demand and price pressure with good winter barley quality, early spring barley harvests already underway, and a stable European harvest outlook.

Key Factors

• Malting markets continue to be defined by slow demand, and the outlook from the industry remains gloomy. Flat prices and premiums are coming under pressure as this lack of demand bites and sellers chase outlets.
• Winter barley is coming off the fields well, with good malting quality being seen across the board, with the exception of reports of green grains in some crops.
• The earliest spring barley cuts are starting to come in, but it is too early to make any real assessment on the crop.
• Harvest in Europe continues with no disasters reported, adding further pressure to sentiment with a comfortable S&D on the cards.
  
  

Outlook
Unless we see a major deterioration in yields/quality, it is likely that malting prices and premiums will continue to feel pressure as the demand deficit continues to rule sentiment.

Feed Barley

Harvesting progresses well under hot, dry conditions; winter barley yields are average with strong specific weights, while quiet markets and farmer reluctance keep prices stable despite weak demand and a comfortable supply surplus.

Key Factors

• Harvesting is continuing well this week with a return to hot/dry conditions following rains over the weekend.
• The winter barley crop is performing well with average yields on the whole, albeit variable by region/soil type. Specific weights are very good and have been reported as high as 72Kg/HL.
• Markets are quiet, and the farmer selling malaise continues which is keeping prices from moving drastically lower, despite a continued lack of demand.
• Exports currently do not calculate, even in the most discounted harvest position. Meanwhile domestic prices continue to trade at a healthy premium to nominal East Coast values, which to our mind makes them a compelling sell given a comfortable surplus in the S&D.
  
  

Outlook
Flat price movements should continue to follow the lead of wider macro grain markets, which today do not show much sign of life. Barley in isolation is looking expensive and we expect will need to push lower in order to unlock demand. Timing, as always, will be the question.

Rapeseed

Agricultural markets have mostly been in selloff mode this week as the focus has been Trump’s letters that spell out what each country can expect in the form of reciprocal tariffs on 1^st August if a trade deal is failed to be formed. The only exception to this is China who have been given a deadline of 12^th August – possibly an indication that a trade deal is expected before then and that the US are keen. We also have another USDA release on Friday which has prompted some position squaring, though for the soybean complex there is not any significant change expected.

Key Factors

• Soybeans have fell to trade at 3 month lows this week as weather forecasts continue to support crop development across growing regions. Crop conditions have seen another shift of 1% from good to excellent and remain at 66% good/excellent. The group of Tariff letters that Trump has sent out included a 20% tariff on the Philippines, who was the number 1 buyer of US meal in 23/24, this helped meal hit a new contract low and pressure the wider complex.
• Crude oil has managed to hold onto its gains this week despite a bearish API report as tensions in the Red Sea have kept the trade on edge. EIA forecast 2025 crude oil production at 13.37 million barrels per day vs. a previous forecast of 13.42 million, though this would still be a record high. We did see some support from when news broke of OPEC+ agreeing to lift its quotas by 548,000 barrels per day in August, much higher than the expected 411,000 that we have seen for the past few months. They have also hinted that we may see another 550,000 barrel per day cut for September.
• Canola has taken back any gains that it has made this week as US trade concerns leak into Canadian markets. Trump has mentioned that Canada’s restrictions on the import of US eggs/poultry/dairy is a significant trade impediment between the two, so Canada have light ground to tread. We have seen some crusher covering when board margins recovered to new highs, though we have seen a proposal from the Senate Committee to limit the RIN valuation to only 50% on Canadian canola imports which will limit crushers profitability.
• MATIF rapeseed has followed the wider complex’s downward trajectory this week as EU crop conditions continue to come in positively with notably France and Ukraine being responsible for an additional circa 200kmt due to improved yields. In Romania, harvest has progressed at a record pace and is mostly complete, coming in mostly in line with expectations on a crop which is 1mmt larger than last year. We have also seen further pressure from the EUR/USD again this week, which has been responsible for a good portion of losses.
• In the UK, harvest is starting to get underway, though is very widespread so far with variable yields, though overall the feedback has been positive.
  
  

Outlook
The month of July is so far living up to expectations and features decent harvest pressure, so if we see conditions continue as they are, there is little sign of this changing. The main point of support is that Australia remains very dry, though high stocks in Canada and good production is offsetting this. It is likely that the focus will remain on logistics for another week as well as positive weather forecasts.

Oats

UK Oat harvest has started, with quality reported to be good, but demand remains poor.

Key Factors

• Good growing conditions in Finland continue to encourage good production prospects however parts of Southern Sweden are less encouraging due to lack of rain.
• Large areas of Germany and France continue to see sub normal rainfall and recent heat waves are likely to have advanced crops and could impact both quality and yield.
• Spain is expected to produce 1.3-1.4Mmt of oats in 2025, which is 30-40% up on last year. This should see them a seller of feed oats, however with quality largely 45kg/hl we could see imports of milling oats in the coming months.
• Milling oat demand remains generally slow however it is not surprising as most millers are waiting for harvest results before taking extra cover.
• Here in the UK some crops of  winter oats have been harvested and early reports are of good specific weights and good quality. Some spring crops are likely to fair much worse with large areas of key growing regions receiving less than 50% of their normal rainfall (1st Mar-20th Jul).
• Another heat wave this week will be the 3rd in less than 4 weeks (since 16^th June’25), this is going to continue to mature crops faster than normal and is likely to damage grain fill on crops that have had insufficient moisture. This could result in higher screenings and more feed oat quality.
  
  

Outlook
Unknown impacts from the lack of rainfall remains an unanswered question, however with high temperatures in large areas of Europe we should soon get greater clarity very soon as harvest progresses. If we have lots of feed grade it is going to need to force its way into markets in order to attract demand.

Pulses

The pulse harvest is starting to get underway across the UK, with the recent heat waves having started the process of killing off winter beans across the South East. With further hot and dry weather on the cards, expect this trend to continue. Peas are similarly dying off and coming ready for harvest, as crops are coming ready.

Key Factors

• Pulse activity has been limited this last week, although there are some reports of early cut Winter Beans being fit on Thursday 3^rd July! Surprisingly early, but with the recent heat waves, it has started the ball rolling for Winter Beans to die off in some areas.
• Bean values are coming under pressure in the face of new crop Beans starting to threaten to come to the market. Buyers remain generally disinterested, and growers will no doubt start to feel the pressure of where to place this early crop. London wheat continues to hunt for sentiment, remaining comparatively rangebound in the mid-170’s, keep Bean prices relatively static. UK beans are still not competitive against either the Baltic for export, or other feedstuff options on the domestic footing. As with previous weeks, UK feed beans still need to come down c. £25/mt to become competitive against commodities such as rapeseed meal.
• This week we saw a slight uptick in activity for combinable peas, with early harvests beginning across some regions. It remains too soon to draw firm conclusions on yields, but initial quality looks promising. Vining pea yields are appearing slightly lower week to week, especially in later crops but that was to be expected.
  Consumer demand remains subdued, with limited interest in both feed and new crop peas. New crop bypass peas are finding  it particularly difficult to find a home, with minimal market engagement so far. While some consumers are expected to have gaps to fill, significant movement is unlikely until they return to the market until we see more harvest activity.
  
  

Outlook
Winter beans are now more or less made across the south of the UK, and it is now a matter of waiting for them to be fit to harvest, although some have already got going. With much the same regarding next week’s weather forecast, expect Pulse crops to continue to move towards being fit to harvest, even if it is early.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

At ADM, we take pride in offering a robust portfolio of oilseed rape varieties tailored to meet diverse growing conditions, challenges, and farmer requirements. Our OSR selection combines high-yield potential, strong disease resistance, and sound agronomic traits, ensuring growers have reliable options for every situation.

Key Factors

• Vigour for Early Advantage: Vigorous varieties help OSR crops establish quickly and outpace early pest pressures. Our preferred choices, Duplo and Aviron, exhibit outstanding vigour both in autumn and spring, giving crops a strong start.

• Maximising Yield: For those prioritising maximum output, Maverick stands out as the highest-yielding variety on the AHDB Recommended List, making it the ideal candidate for pushing yield boundaries.
• Strong Disease Resistance: Maintaining clean crops throughout the season is essential for consistent performance. Varieties like LG Academic, DK Excited, and Hinsta not only deliver high yields but also offer resistance to TuYV and pod shatter, helping protect your investment.
• Premium Oil Content: Achieving high oil content boosts premiums at the crush. Our candidate variety Karat shines here with an impressive 46.8% oil content and strong yields across both East and West regions.
• Conventional Variety Choices: For growers preferring conventional options, Pi Pinnacle and Campus remain popular and reliable favourites.
• Companion Cropping Benefits: Enhancing OSR with companion crops such as buckwheat, berseem clover, and fenugreek can help confuse pests and improve soil structure—both factors contributing to healthier crop establishment.
  
  

Outlook
As drilling time approaches, ensuring optimal conditions is critical for successful establishment. A fine, firm seedbed with well-drained and moist soils gives the best start for OSR seeds. Some growers have found earlier sowing advantageous to gain a head start before peak beetle migration. However, it is important to balance this with disease risk awareness, including verticillium and clubroot. Alternatively, with milder autumns due to climate change, later sowing into early to mid-September (location dependent) can allow crops to reach the ideal 8-10 leaf stage before winter.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
European prices edge up on heat and supply confidence; US futures slide on surging output and persistent storage surplus.

Key Factors

• European futures climbed to €34.8/MWh, a two-week high, supported by hotter-than-average weather forecasts following the region’s hottest June on record.
• Temperatures exceeded 38°C in parts of Western Europe, amplified by record Mediterranean sea surface temperatures.
• The EU relaxed its 90% gas storage deadline to December, easing short-term supply pressure.
• TotalEnergies’ CEO projected that Europe can fully replace Russian LNG by 2028 with new volumes from the US and Qatar.
• US futures fell 5% to below $3.2/MMBtu on Wednesday, marking a six-week low.
• July output in the Lower 48 hit 106.7 bcfd, surpassing June’s record.
• Storage remains 6% above the five-year norm, with another strong injection expected this week.
• LNG exports recovered to 15.6 bcfd as US plants resumed post-maintenance operations.
  
  

Outlook
European gas remains supported by heat and seasonal demand, but policy flexibility and robust LNG supply cap upside. In the US, despite strong AC-driven demand, rising output and high storage keep futures under pressure.

Ammonia
Prices stabilise as tighter supply balances support a steady-to-firm July outlook.

Key Factors

• Ammonia prices appear to have found a floor in early July following recent volatility.
• Market remains supported by a tightening supply-demand balance across both the Atlantic and Middle East–Asia corridors.
• No major new disruptions, but sentiment remains underpinned by recent constraints and steady downstream pull.
  
  

Outlook
With fundamentals more balanced, prices are expected to hold stable or firm slightly through July unless disrupted by fresh supply-side developments.

Nitrates
Market enters seasonal lull, but tight producer positions and firm urea limit downside.

Key Factors

• Nitrate demand has slowed as the market moves into the typical summer low.
• Despite softer demand, European producers report being largely sold out for July and August.
• With limited availability and support from a firmer urea complex, price reductions are viewed as unlikely in the near term.
  
  

Outlook
While activity has eased, tight producer positions and upstream nitrogen strength suggest pricing will remain resilient through the quieter summer period.

Urea
India’s tender absorbs global attention as prices surge; Brazilian farmers retreat on affordability concerns.

Key Factors

• India’s RCF received acceptances for 1.3 Mt of its 2 Mt urea tender, split across east and west coasts; the deadline has now been extended to 15 July.
• If the full 2 Mt is awarded, it will tighten short-term supply globally and solidify market strength through Q3.
• Egypt’s Mopco sold 5,000 t at $507/t FOB for 2H July shipment, up $52/t from earlier in the month.
• In Brazil, buyers have pulled back amid high prices and weak farm economics.
• Offers once seen at $450/t CFR have vanished, with Algeria FOB values now around $515/t.
• Brazil imported 2.5 Mt of urea in H1 2025, down from 3 Mt in H1 2024.
  
  

Outlook
India’s tender remains the key short-term driver. A near-full award will reinforce the current bull run, though affordability issues in Brazil highlight growing resistance in downstream markets.

Phosphates
Prices remain firm on tight supply as buyers continue to engage despite affordability strain.

Key Factors

• Global phosphate markets remain tight, sustaining upward pressure on DAP/MAP prices.
• Affordability concerns persist, but limited alternatives are keeping buyers in the market.
• No significant correction is expected until at least Q3, contingent on improved supply and increased buyer confidence.
  
  

Outlook
With few substitutes and constrained availability, phosphate prices are likely to remain elevated through the near term. Any downside will depend on tangible supply relief and easing procurement pressure.

Potash
Prices poised to rise into September peak, with upside risk if demand surprises to the upside.

Key Factors

• Potash values continue to firm, with market consensus pointing to a peak in September.
• Affordability concerns are rising, but supply tightness and steady demand are maintaining bullish momentum.
• Should H2 demand exceed expectations, further price gains remain possible beyond current forecasts.
  
  

Outlook
With sentiment strong and seasonal demand ahead, potash prices are expected to climb further through Q3. The ceiling may rise if consumption outpaces expectations.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1588	1.3586	1.1722

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
July25	130-140	145-160	200-210	380-390