Thursday 1 May 2025

Wheat

Grain markets continued to test contract lows throughout the past week, with US planting progress and favourable weather driving bearish sentiment. Speculative activity remains mixed, while limited farmer selling and sporadic consumer buying have kept European markets volatile. Old crop is phasing out as attention shifts to new crop pricing, particularly amid UK and European weather concerns.

Key Points

• US Planting and Weather have been broadly favourable, with the outlook holding much of the same. Rapid US planting progress and favourable conditions for corn, soybeans, and wheat have weighed heavily on prices, with winter wheat ratings improving to 49% good/excellent.
• Money managers extended long positions in soybeans and wheat while reducing corn exposure. Index funds have slightly cut long exposure across the Ag commodities sector as a whole.
• MATIF wheat and UK futures hit contract lows on solid crop condition reports and slow demand, but dryness in Northern Europe sits as an amber flag to encourage some market caution.
• Weak export demand persists despite US Gulf wheat pricing at multi-year lows; some minor bullish action came from US corn sales and trade optimism with China, South Korea, and India, but the rapid pace of US panting progress capped gains.
• Political volatility and weaker US GDP (-0.3%) are creating broader uncertainty, especially around global trade and demand, which is somewhat adding to the bearish ‘risk-off’ sentiment.
  
  

Outlook
With US planting progress ahead of schedule and weather mostly favourable, further downside risk persists unless fresh demand emerges. However, dryness in Northern Europe, potential excess rain in US wheat areas, and trade developments may offer the volatility needed for a market reversal in the near term.

Malting Barley

The malting barley market is fixated on the weather forecast, with dry conditions looking to persist for the next few weeks.

Key Factors

• Crops, on the whole, are looking good however the market is starting to build some weather risk into pricing. It is unlikely we will see any farmer selling at least until some rains arrive which are currently not forecast. This should keep malting barley supported for the time being.
• On the other side, demand is extremely slow. We see some price fixing happening, but not significant volumes and certainly nothing that is significantly moving the market.
  
  

Outlook

Once again, weather is the key driver and this will continue to be the focus of the market, any price direction for now will be purely down to sentiment. Expect prices to remain supported whilst conditions are dry, but this could quickly change if crops get some relief and the market returns its focus to the poor demand.

Feed Barley

Very little to report from the last week. Markets are starting to feel pressure as vessel shorts cover their requirements and start to retreat, end user demand stays thin both domestically and abroad.

Key Factors

• Export markets are quiet and buying interest in Ireland is well below replacement. Shorts are getting covered and starting to reflect this in their bids.
• Domestic usage remains good on healthy livestock margins.
• New crop basis is firming on lack of farmer selling and hot/dry conditions across the country.
• New crop levels are still uncompetitive for export, despite a surplus forecast for the 25/26 S&D.
  
  

Outlook

Old crop will likely drift sideways/lower as demand stays thin. New crop will continue to follow futures/wider grain markets, but needs to find demand relatively and is currently not pricing to do so.

Rapeseed

Another choppy week for agriculture markets, with a short week in France meaning that we only have 4 trading days on MATIF rapeseed this week due to Labour Day on the 1^st. We have seen slow development on the possibility of an agreement between the US and China, and largely focussed on the weather for the week as we are now in a key window for Europe and looking at planting progress in the US.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans have taken back any gains that we saw last week as positive harvest progress as well as a maintained lack of Chinese demand pressure prices. As of our latest report on Monday, soybeans were 18% planted vs. 17% last year and a 5 year average of 12%, and have continued to progress well since this. Argentina has now managed to make some harvest progress, now at 15% complete with average yields at 51.4 bu/acre vs. an average of 52.7. Open interest for soybeans has reached its lowest level since June last year showing that there is a lot of the trade that is apprehensive to be involved in the volatility.
• There has been some further pressure to Soyoil due to the fact that China has been seen shifting its cooking oil imports to EU origin.
• Crude oil has also moved lower this week lower as some OPEC+ members have reinforced the point that the group may accelerate oil output hikes in their meeting on Monday 5^th. There was a Reuters report that Saudi Arabia may increase its crude prices to Asia, though this would be an increase from the lowest price we have seen in three years. Kazakhstan oil exports for Jan-March averaged 1.63 million barrels per day, 7% higher than last year due to increased OPEC+ quotas. API crude stocks were up 3.8 million barrels last week vs. expectations for a 400,000 barrel increase.
• Bullish momentum for canola has waned this week after reaching new highs with higher prices both incentivising farmer selling and pressuring crusher margins. There has been some farmers start sowing early with the hot and dry weather, normally we wouldn’t expect this to start for another 10 days or so. This will help the crop to flower before the typically hot and dry late July. though we did see this last year with Saskatchewan planting reaching 12% complete by May 6^th.
• MATIF rapeseed has been a follower again this week, so we have seen prices move lower. Now that the May contract has expired, we may see some more conviction on the August contract. Overall, crop conditions in Europe have been positive, with the regions in Germany and France that were starting to look dry receiving some much needed rain. There is a very early flag for some regions in Poland, but the main focus is Ukraine which does still need some precipitation. The 7 day forecast does have some light rains which will help.
  
  

Outlook

For now, the focus will largely be on the weather as well as a trade deal between the US and China if this is something that we see. Overall, global weather forecasts look good for positive production figures which will weigh on commodity prices. From here, we do see price turn choppy for a few weeks seasonally as we move through key growing stages and this year doesn’t look to be any exception.

Oats

Oat markets in Europe have seen some activity over the last few weeks with some German millers taking cover with prices at 12 month lows. But in general activity has been relatively slow.

Key Factors

• Further dry weather in key EU oat growing areas will persist over the next week and this could become a problem if rain does not fall in May.
• A lack of rain over the last 2 months in Sweden, UK and parts of the Baltic states has enabled for good planting conditions but with crops now growing they need rain to help them realise their potential.
• Feed demand remains slow but the odd cargo of old crop has traded from Scandinavia. Demand in general however is poor.
• Here in the UK prices have been very flat with farmers hoping for better values and millers are well covered.
• Some spot short covering remains with merchants filling in existing sales.
• New crop is still wide open with many consumers having taken little cover year to date.
  
  

Outlook

The market is at 12 months low and needs evidence of the over supply from last harvest in order to push prices lower but this is reliant on farmer selling. Dry weather is also a potential flag and if it persists could result in prices firming as concerns about production start to influence buyers demand appetite.

Pulses

Pulse markets continue to be quiet as the annual end of season lull persists. Grower engagement is improving though, as is consumer interest, and if we start seeing some more precipitation in the forecast, it is likely we’ll see more confidence from sellers.

Key Factors

• Egyptian New Crop beans continue to be cut, and the quality remains good. This will no doubt keep stocks buoyed over the transition period now until UK new crop comes along, and we will no doubt start seeing some demand in to North Africa again. The strength of the GBP will likely make things a little trickier compared to this season, however as we near harvest, it is likely the firm domestic prices will start to slide, offsetting the firm GBP.
• The last week has been broadly dry across the UK, and the forecast is showing much of the same and above average temperatures. This is a small concern at this stage, as the warm and sunlight will be helping a healthy establishment, however we will certainly need to start seeing rainfall in the not too distant future to support the yield potential the area has.
• New crop bean premiums remain supported for now, however are showing signs of cracking and easing back from the recent highs. The underlying wheat price is again relatively static week on week, meaning the flat price remains relatively unchanged. However, New Crop beans are uncompetitive against competing imported feedstuffs such as Rapemeal and Soymeal by c. $35-40/mt, so there is certainly work to be done to the downside to counter the strong competition for formulation space in the feed sector.
• It’s safe to say the season is now complete with very few gaps to fill until new crop supply comes online. Crops in the ground look very healthy but it won’t be too long before we need some further rain to help replenish soil moistures. As global uncertainty continues over tariffs and trade flows consumers will be keeping a keen eye on the UK crop development over the coming weeks.
  
  

Outlook
New Crop pulse production continues to look positive, as long as we see some precipitation. The domestic currency is remaining firm, which will dampen initial export competitiveness, however this will likely be offset by a weakening in flat prices as the crop comes closer to fruition. Growers should consider the range of strategic marketing options we can offer, whilst ensuring strong crop management for optimal yields. 

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Early thoughts towards Autumn have begun, starting with winter oilseed rape with the crop planted looking well at present with values looking respectable for the farm income. Plus some exciting new varieties that have hit the market ahead of 2025 drilling.

Key Factors

• Our portfolio of OSR varieties has been carefully selected by our specialists to ensure we can offer something for a range of situations and scenarios.
• Some exciting new additions to the market and our portfolio are Karat, Maverick, Hinsta and Crusoe.
• Crusoe is a recommended variety for land infected with the common strains of clubroot, boasting a step up in yield and overall package from older clubroot varieties.
• Karat is a candidate variety from NPZ plant breeding that looks very interesting with brilliant gross output in the East/West region and high oil content.
• Hinsta from KWS has joined the list as the 3^rd highest yielding variety with a robust disease package including TuYV and pod shatter.
• Maverick – the highest yielding variety on the 25/26 Recommended List. A great opportunity to maximise profits due to its step up in gross output.
• If your needing a maize top up, we still have some varieties available plus our game maize offering consisting of both straights and blends.
  
  

Outlook
As May approaches and thoughts towards the Autumn seed requirements appear, we believe at ADM Agriculture that the spectrum of market leading products we have to offer are backed up with up to date market values and a wealth of knowledge regarding these markets. We are also pleased to offer a range of establishment.

Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 5 or speak with your Farm Trader.