Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Agricultural markets have shifted from macro-led strength into a more corrective, two-way phase. Energy volatility, Middle East diplomacy and speculative positioning have driven much of the recent price action, while improving weather across parts of Europe and the US has tempered supply concerns. Wheat has softened more decisively, while corn remains comparatively better underpinned by export demand.

Key Factors:

• Macro and energy remain dominant, with crude oil volatility linked to developments around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has been the principal external driver. Higher energy prices supported vegetable oils and broader agricultural sentiment earlier in the period, although the subsequent retreat in oil triggered broader liquidation across grain markets.
• Corn remains firmer on underlying support, as US corn has remained relatively resilient. Export inspections and cumulative shipments continue to run well ahead of last year, while planting progress has broadly tracked seasonal norms. However, speculative length remains elevated, leaving futures vulnerable to bouts of profit-taking and macro-driven selling.
• Wheat remains fundamentally heavy though, coming under greater pressure as improved moisture across parts of the US Plains and Europe reduced some weather premium. Even so, crop conditions remain uneven, particularly in Kansas and Oklahoma, where yield expectations remain weak and abandonment risk continues to attract market attention.
• Europe is moving towards a more comfortable supply profile, with grain markets increasingly reflecting improving production prospects. French rainfall has stabilised sentiment, MATIF deliverable stocks have risen sharply, and official forecasts point to firmer wheat and corn output. Old-crop physical markets nevertheless remain comparatively tight in selected regions.
• Black Sea competition continues to cap rallies though. The international wheat trade remains active, but export business continues to favour competitively priced Black Sea origins. Rising Russian availability, stronger Canadian stocks and reduced import needs in parts of North Africa reinforce the view that global wheat balances are not sufficiently tight to sustain recent highs.
  
  

Outlook
Near term, grain markets are likely to remain rangebound but highly headline sensitive. Weather across the US Plains, Midwest and Europe will be critical, while speculative positioning leaves futures exposed to abrupt volatility. Corn should remain comparatively supported by demand, but wheat will require a renewed weather threat to rebuild risk premium.

Malting Barley

Grain markets are beginning to shift away from the recent downtrend and show signs of stabilisation. While Europe still appears to have adequate malting barley availability on paper, most spring crops are only in their early growth stages, leaving significant exposure to weather-related risks. Any serious yield issues could quickly spark a wave of buying as end users move to secure supply and limit downside risk. Broader strength in global grain futures is also providing supportive momentum for barley values.

Key Factors:

• Prolonged dry conditions and limited rainfall have expanded areas of very dry soils across much of England.
• Robust Chinese demand for French feed barley has pushed French prices higher, indirectly lifting overall barley valuations through spillover effects.
• The UK’s relatively small spring barley acreage reduces flexibility if production falls short this season.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, malting barley prices have recovered from recent lows, largely driven by a lack of farmer selling interest. Looking further ahead, the outlook remains uncertain and highly dependent on weather patterns and whether buyers’ step in early or wait, potentially competing in a more constrained market later.

Feed Barley

The feed barley market remains quiet, with limited farmer selling and weak consumer demand keeping trade subdued. Dry weather concerns continue to cause concern for the new crop from the supply side; however demand remains minimal.

Key Factors:

• The old crop feed barley market has been exceptionally quiet over the last week. Buying and selling is at a stand-off, as on farm stocks are all but gone, meanwhile consumer interest has fallen.
• New crop markets are similarly sluggish. We have seen some small relief from the recent dry spell, however further rains are needed urgently to support the spring crop. Farmer selling is slow as a result. Domestic prices are not attracting much consumer demand, despite pressure from falling futures week on week.
• Export demand is limited, for both old crop and new crop. Ireland remains the main target for UK exports, however coverage here is good and buying targets sit well below today’s replacement.
  
  

Outlook
We see limited downside for old crop prices given tightening stocks, while new crop remains driven by broader macro factors; the barley–wheat spread is unlikely to weaken significantly until farmer selling picks up, with ongoing dry conditions expected to provide continued support.

Rapeseed

Agricultural markets reversed direction this week as easing geopolitical tensions and ongoing trade discussions pressured energy markets and triggered a pullback across oilseeds. Crude oil fell sharply after last week’s rally, reducing support for vegetable oils and slowing speculative buying.

Soybeans moved back below $12/bushel as favourable U.S. planting conditions and weather improved crop expectations, although soy oil remained relatively firm despite weaker energy prices. Across the oilseed complex, increased farmer selling and adjustments in fund positioning added to market volatility following the recent rally. Attention is now turning to upcoming U.S.-China discussions, which could influence future soybean export demand.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybean futures closed sharply lower on the week. Soybean meal was marginally weaker, while soy oil held its gains until recent days. The divergence between beans and products was notable, with soy oil remaining firm even as soybean futures came under pressure. A pause in speculative fund buying, combined with increased farmer selling, contributed to the setback in soybean prices, although the pressure currently appears more corrective than structural. Improved US planting prospects and supportive weather conditions continue to underpin expectations for larger soybean acreage this season. At the same time, market participants are monitoring potential developments in US and China trade relations, with President Trump expected to meet President Xi next week. Any renewed purchasing commitments for US soybeans could provide fresh support to export demand.
• Crude oil remained the dominant macro driver for agricultural markets this week. WTI futures have now fallen sharply from recent highs, effectively reversing the approximately $10/barrel rally recorded last week within a single trading session. The decline in energy prices reduced support for vegetable oil markets and dampened broader commodity sentiment, particularly after speculative buying accelerated during the previous rally linked to geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US AND Iran relations.
• Canadian canola prices closed modestly lower yesterday, tracking the wider market, although trading volumes remained relatively subdued as farmers focus on preparations for spring planting. Weather conditions are gradually improving, increasing confidence that crops will be seeded under favourable conditions.
• European rapeseed futures on MATIF eased back from last week’s highs as improving weather conditions across Europe supported crop outlooks, particularly for sunflower production, which had been under increasing stress due to dry conditions. Currency movements also remain an important factor for European markets. The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar yesterday, adding additional pressure to euro-denominated oilseed prices and impacting export competitiveness.
  
  

Outlook
Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in energy markets, macroeconomic sentiment, and geopolitical headlines over the near term. While the recent correction has eased some speculative excess, underlying oilseed fundamentals remain relatively supportive, particularly given tight global vegetable oil balances.

Trade discussions between the U.S. and China will also remain closely watched, with the potential for renewed export commitments to support soybean demand sentiment. However, stronger farmer selling, improved crop prospects, and softer crude oil values may continue to limit upside momentum in the short term.

Oats

Oat markets remain subdued, with sentiment dominated by expectations of sufficient supply and therefore little urgency among buyers to push prices higher. With spring planting now completed, attention has shifted firmly to weather developments across major exporting regions.

Key Factors:

• Weak demand is limiting any meaningful upward price movement, though this is balanced by minimal farmer selling, keeping the market relatively steady overall.
• Very dry conditions across large parts of the UK and Europe are raising concerns about yield potential, with Spain standing out as a partial exception.
• Elevated feed barley prices are making oats comparatively attractive, helping to establish a price floor in feed markets.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, old-crop oat values are unlikely to rally strongly under current demand conditions. However, if dry weather persists, sellers may choose to hold onto stocks longer, waiting for clearer signals from upcoming crop development and supply expectations.

Pulses

The bank holiday brought some much-needed rain, which whilst limited, is a start. Growing conditions for the new crop continue to be broadly supportive, aside from a general lack of precipitation on the horizon, and crops look well for now, pricing continues to track London Feed Wheat futures as it hunts for sentiment. Old crop beans continue to be slow, although they continue to steadily tease out as the end of the crop year approaches.

Key Factors:

• Bean markets have again been muted for the last week, with little engagement from buyers or sellers, with only the odd load changing hands. Pricing has firmed slightly because of the low liquidity, although it feels more like a lack of engagement than a lack of available tonnage, as loads keep making their way to market. Old crop beans remain a premium over imported feedstuffs, a trend that continues into the new crop. However, this will do little to dampen the appetite of the poultry sector, which has a voracious appetite for beans compared to the larger species.
• Turning to new crop beans, reports from across the UK suggest both Winters and Springs are looking well, dare we say even good! They have weathered out the dryness until now and are proving resilient, cereal crops may have been under irrigation across the south of the UK lately, however beans are holding up a little better, and are now only just starting to show the early signs of stress. If we start to see more meaningful precipitation in the forecasts though, we haven’t yet hit the point where the crop will be significantly stunted as a result.
• The global pea market remains broadly balanced, with prices holding largely unchanged week on week. Trade continues to be shaped by uncertainty around the US and Iran situation and ongoing anti-dumping measures, both of which are weighing on market sentiment. Buying interest remains cautious, with most activity focused on nearby spot requirements or short-term coverage rather than forward commitments. As attention gradually shifts towards the new season, the direction of prices will likely depend on how supply prospects and logistical conditions develop over the coming weeks.
• In the UK, trading remains relatively subdued. Most buyers appear comfortably covered in the near term, with only limited pockets of demand expected ahead of new crop availability. Planting has now been completed. Recent rainfall has been welcome, although further moisture would still be beneficial. Weather will remain the key factor from here. For those with peas in the ground, our latest round-up from Keith Costello is available to read.
  
  

Outlook
Recent rainfall has supported crop prospects, and UK pulses enter the new season in generally resilient condition. Markets remain thin and cautious, with prices shaped more by limited engagement than tight supply. From here, weather will be the key driver: further meaningful precipitation would underpin yield potential, while global pea trade will continue to watch supply developments, logistics and wider geopolitical uncertainty for clearer price direction.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Many crops across the UK are progressing well as they move through key growth stages, with most now looking for a welcome spell of rainfall to maintain momentum. Maize drilling continues, supported by the warmer temperatures we’ve enjoyed over recent weeks.

Key Factors:

• Winter OSR: Our new ADM Seed Catalogue is now live, showcasing our top OSR varieties alongside their agronomic strengths and disease packages.
• OSR Establishment Scheme: ADM are pleased to support OSR growers with our internal establishment scheme. Available on a selection of our strongest varieties to help manage risk and achieve the highest possible output.
• Winter Wheat: Sparkler remains a standout option for autumn drilling, offering the joint-highest Septoria tritici resistance rating within the Group 4 feeds. With Septoria still one of the most damaging foliar diseases in winter wheat, Sparkler’s robust genetics provide valuable security for yield and performance. LG Defiance is another strong option in our portfolio, offering both exceptional yield performance and a robust disease package, holding up particularly well to yellow rust.
• Maize: If you require top-up seed or have new maize requirements, please contact your ADM Farm Trader. We have options available for fast turnaround.
• Small Seeds: Attention is shifting towards grass leys, environmental mixtures, game cover, and a wide range of small seeds as plans develop for the season ahead.
  
  

We offer:

• A broad selection of mixtures and straights
• Fast delivery
• Bespoke seed mixtures tailored to your farm’s needs
  
  

Outlook
Demand remains strong across several crop sectors, and availability is already tightening for some new autumn varieties. To secure the right options for your rotation, we recommend speaking with your ADM Farm Trader soon.

Fertiliser

Ammonia

Global ammonia markets remain structurally tight, with fresh Southeast Asian outages adding further upward pressure. 

Key Factors: 

• The May Tampa contract settled at $825/t CFR on 4 May, up $50/t month on month, highlighting the continued strength across the global ammonia market. 
• The ongoing closure and disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to underpin the market, maintaining tight global availability and restricting prompt supply flows. 
• Southeast Asian supply is set to tighten further following the start of PT ESSA’s PAU turnaround on 6 May, with the outage expected to last around five weeks. 
• The loss of regional tonnes comes at a particularly sensitive time for East of Suez buyers, where supply flexibility is already extremely limited. 
• India and East Asia are expected to feel the greatest impact, with buyers likely forced to compete more aggressively for available cargoes. 
• Alternative supply options remain constrained, while ongoing logistical uncertainty and elevated risk premiums continue to limit market fluidity. 
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia markets are expected to remain firmly supported in the near term. The combination of continued Middle East disruption and additional Southeast Asian outages is likely to keep supply tight and prices elevated, particularly across East of Suez markets where procurement conditions remain challenging. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Markets remain broadly flat as seasonal demand fades and producers begin signalling new season direction. 

Key Factors: 

• LAT Nitrogen publishing its new season AN pricing in Europe is expected to act as a key directional signal for the wider market, with other producers likely to follow in the coming weeks. 
• European nitrate markets remain broadly flat overall, with demand continuing to lack momentum as the season winds down. 
• Buyer resistance remains evident at current levels, particularly for new season discussions, limiting liquidity and delaying commitments. 
• The publication of fresh producer pricing should provide clearer market structure heading into the summer and autumn positioning period. 
• Sulphates markets also remain relatively stable, with limited spot activity and subdued underlying demand across most regions. 
• In China and India, activity is expected to remain muted through mid-week as participants return from Labour Day holidays, reducing short term liquidity. 
• Chinese ammonium sulphate pricing is expected to remain within recent ranges, with no major directional shift currently anticipated. 
  
  

Outlook 
Nitrates and sulphates are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term, with weak seasonal demand continuing to cap upside. Market focus is now shifting toward new season producer pricing and whether buyers begin re engaging once clearer pricing direction emerges. 

Urea

Prices ease from April highs, though structural tightness continues to underpin the market. 

Key Factors:

• Global urea prices have softened from the extreme highs seen in mid-April following the conclusion of India’s latest IPL purchase tender. 
• IPL secured 2.5 Mt for shipment through mid-June, absorbing a substantial amount of global availability and effectively tightening the balance through Q2. 
• Despite the obvious supply disruption caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the market is now entering a period of consolidation as immediate post India demand has yet to fully emerge. 
• Around 1 Mt of urea remains stranded west of the Strait in the Arab Gulf, continuing to restrict prompt supply and support global benchmarks. 
• Market participants are now assessing whether fresh buying from key import regions such as Australia, Latin America and the US will re accelerate pricing higher. 
• Supply remains structurally constrained, but the absence of aggressive spot demand immediately after India’s tender has temporarily reduced upward momentum. 
• Sentiment remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly any change in transit conditions through Hormuz. 
  
  

Outlook 
Urea prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the immediate term as the market digests India’s recent tender activity. However, underlying fundamentals remain tight, with significant volumes still stranded and supply disruption unresolved. Any resurgence in import demand or renewed escalation around Hormuz could quickly push prices higher again. 

Phosphates

Market activity remains subdued, but tight supply and firm seller control continue to support higher pricing. 

Key Factors: 

• Spot market activity has slowed as suppliers continue lifting offers in response to tightening availability of both finished phosphates and key raw materials. 
• Buyers globally are struggling to absorb further increases, with affordability deteriorating sharply versus underlying crop economics. 
• Despite slower liquidity, sellers continue to retain strong pricing power due to structurally tight supply conditions. 
• Feedstock constraints, particularly around sulphur and ammonia availability, continue to underpin bullish sentiment across the phosphate complex. 
• Market participants are now heavily focused on IPL’s 7 May tender for 1.2 Mt of DAP and 0.4 Mt of TSP for shipment to India. 
• The outcome of the tender is expected to provide a major directional marker for global phosphate pricing and offer clearer insight into true supplier appetite at current levels. 
• India’s return to the market is particularly significant given the already constrained global supply picture and limited export availability from several key origins. 
  
  

Outlook 
Phosphate markets remain fundamentally bullish despite subdued spot activity. Tight supply and elevated feedstock costs continue to support higher pricing, while the IPL tender is likely to act as the next major catalyst for market direction. Affordability concerns remain severe, but supply scarcity continues to dominate sentiment. 

Potash

Potash markets continue to strengthen gradually as logistics costs and firm demand support pricing. 

Key Factors:

• Potash prices are expected to edge higher in the near term across key global regions. 
• Rising freight, insurance and wider logistical costs continue to provide underlying support to supplier pricing strategies. 
• Stronger sales activity across US NOLA, Brazil and Southeast Asia is reinforcing bullish sentiment within the market. 
• Brazil remains a key driver of global pricing momentum, supported by continued import demand and seasonal purchasing. 
• Southeast Asia is also seeing firmer demand, helping suppliers maintain upward pressure despite easing freight in some areas. 
• US NOLA pricing continues to strengthen gradually as inland demand improves, and replacement costs remain elevated. 
• Unlike nitrogen and phosphates, potash supply itself remains relatively stable, with price movement being driven more by logistics and commercial positioning than outright shortages. 
  
  

Outlook 
Potash markets are expected to remain firm with a gradual upward bias in the near term. Elevated logistical costs and stronger demand across major import regions should continue supporting higher prices, though gains are likely to remain measured rather than aggressive given balanced underlying supply fundamentals. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1563	1.3590	1.1749

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
May26	153-163	178-190	210-220	480-490