Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Global grain markets traded largely sideways this week, with weather concerns across Western Europe providing support while abundant Black Sea supplies, a stronger US dollar and weaker energy markets limited broader gains. Heat and dryness have become the dominant themes, particularly for EU corn, although wheat markets remain constrained by intense export competition and generally comfortable global supply prospects.

Key Factors:

• European heat drives risk premium, as record temperatures across France and Western Europe have increased concerns over crop stress and yield losses, particularly in corn. Wheat markets have found support from production uncertainty, although harvest progress and generally respectable crop conditions have tempered more aggressive bullish sentiment.
• Black Sea exporters continue to dominate global markets, with Russian and Ukrainian wheat remaining highly competitive into global destinations, maintaining pressure on international values. Even with modest downward revisions to Russian production forecasts, expected supplies remain ample enough to underpin the region’s dominance of early-season export business.
• US markets remain weighed by favourable crop prospects. Corn conditions remain broadly supportive, with adequate moisture across much of the Midwest and little evidence of widespread stress. Wheat harvest is advancing rapidly, and, despite historically poor crop ratings, yield reports have generally met expectations, limiting upside momentum.
• Fund and macroeconomic influences remain negative, with a firmer US dollar, softer crude oil markets and continued fund selling across agricultural commodities have restricted buying interest. Concerns over Chinese demand have also weighed on sentiment, leaving weather as the primary supportive feature for grain markets.
• In Europe, corn outperforms wheat, with European corn futures have been the standout performer as heat stress, lower planted area and deteriorating production expectations tighten regional supply forecasts. Wheat has benefited indirectly from the weather story but continues to lag due to stronger global supply competition.
  
  

Outlook
Weather will remain the principal market driver as harvest expands across the Northern Hemisphere. Further heat-related deterioration in Western Europe could lend additional support to grain values, particularly corn. However, sizeable Black Sea supplies, comfortable global stock expectations and subdued demand growth are likely to keep rallies measured unless production losses become materially larger than currently anticipated.

Malting Barley

European malting barley markets have bounced from the lows following concerns of the extreme heat being experienced in Europe. Temperatures more than 40 degrees centigrade are expected to impact developing spring crops causing higher nitrogen’s and poorer quality. Demand however remains poor, but we may have seen the market low for the short term.

Key Factors:

• Farmer selling remains largely absent, which is offering some underlying support and helping to limit the downside.
• Key Drivers
  Extreme heat wave across wide areas of Europe is stressing developing spring barley crops
• Early yield data from France indicates yields 1.0-1.5t/ha below last year for both winters and springs
• Northern hemisphere harvest is underway, and we will soon gain a greater understanding of the availability in EU malting barley. Will there be the 1.4-1.5Mmt surplus which is currently forecast?
• Heatwave in the UK is expected to stress spring crops which are already suffering from a lack of rainfall over the last 3-4 months
• Minimal farmer selling continues to support prices as this lack of liquidity is impacting the ability to trade.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, European malting barley prices are expected to track sideways to slightly higher with rallies in wheat prices expected to be followed until the extent of the damage is known.

Longer term, the UK outlook remains on a knife edge. The smallest planting area for a few years combined with concerns about quality could see malting prices rally. However, the lack of overall demand could temper any rallies.

Feed Barley

With harvest now approaching rapidly, activity in the old crop barley market continues to fade. Most farm stocks have been marketed, and consumers appear comfortably covered through to the arrival of new crop supplies. Limited spot demand and a lack of export interest are keeping the market subdued, although attention is increasingly turning towards harvest logistics and the pace of farmer selling during July and August.

Key Factors:

• Old crop trade is entering its final stages, with relatively few tonnes remaining in growers’ hands and end users carrying sufficient nearby cover.
• Export demand remains absent. Continental buyers continue to focus on the impending harvest, with little appetite to secure old crop positions while cheaper new crop supplies are expected to become available.
• Domestic values remain under pressure as thin liquidity persists. The market continues to discourage additional demand, although the key question is how much barley will need to move directly off farm at harvest.
• Traditionally, export channels provide an outlet for early harvest movement, but current export economics remain uncompetitive. Without that support, any sizeable farmer selling programme could weigh on values during the opening weeks of harvest.
• Deferred positions continue to take direction from wider grain markets, particularly wheat, while physical trading volumes remain limited.
  
  

Outlook
Market focus is steadily shifting away from old crop and towards harvest execution. Assuming weather conditions allow combines to progress normally, old crop premiums are expected to continue narrowing against new crop values. The extent of harvest selling pressure will depend largely on farmer movement and whether export demand re-emerges to absorb surplus tonnes.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets endured another volatile week, with macroeconomic influences continuing to influence agricultural markets. Crude oil retreated sharply as concerns surrounding Middle East supply disruptions eased, dragging wider vegetable oil markets lower and removing a key source of support for oilseeds. Soybeans remained under pressure from favourable US crop conditions and a lack of fresh Chinese demand, while Canadian canola and MATIF rapeseed attempted to stabilise after recent losses. Currency movements, weather developments and speculative fund activity remained the key drivers of market direction throughout the week.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans traded mostly lower though the week, pressured by favourable US growing conditions, advanced planting progress and limited fresh export demand. US crop ratings improved 1% to 66% good/excellent. The market continues to wait for meaningful new demand, particularly from China. Technically, futures remain close to contract lows at $11.00, with traders reluctant to build fresh long positions while weather remains broadly supportive. Attention is increasingly turning towards the hotter and potentially drier forecasts projected into early July, which could become more influential if realised.
• Energy markets were the dominant external influence this week, with crude oil falling sharply as concerns over potential supply disruption eased and shipping flows normalised quicker than expected. Prices managed to reach their lowest point since March. The removal of geopolitical risk premium weighed heavily on vegetable oils, particularly soyoil, reducing support across the wider oilseed complex. While uncertainty remains around global energy supply chains, markets have become increasingly comfortable with current conditions, allowing risk premiums to continue unwinding.
• Canola futures found intermittent support after reaching eight-week lows, though rallies remained limited. Delayed planting progress in Alberta continues to attract attention, with some regions significantly behind normal schedules and beyond traditional crop insurance deadlines, though this is largely offset by anticipated strong yields on favourable weather forecasts. Export business to China and currency movements provided some commercial support during the week. However, speculative funds continued reducing long exposure, with managed money length falling substantially. From a technical perspective, the market appears to be attempting to build a base around support levels, though conviction remains limited without stronger fundamental input.
• MATIF rapeseed finished the week lower overall despite several attempts to rebound from support around €509/t. The market has now broken its longer-term uptrend and continues to struggle beneath overhead resistance near €518/t. Harvest activity expanded across Europe, with early yield reports from France slightly under expectations. MARS reduced its EU yield estimate to 3.18 t/ha, below last year’s result, while hot and dry conditions across parts of France and southern Germany remain a concern. Nevertheless, harvest pressure and weaker energy markets continue to limit upside potential.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, weather will remain the primary focus across all oilseed markets. US soybean forecasts will be closely monitored as crops move into key development stages, while European harvest results should provide greater clarity on rapeseed production potential. Canola traders will continue assessing the impact of delayed planting and fund liquidation. Energy markets remain an important external driver, but with much of the recent risk premium now removed, agricultural fundamentals may begin to play a greater role in determining price direction over the coming weeks.

Oats

Oat markets continue to be in the preharvest lull, with many participants on holiday or waiting to gain a greater understanding of the crop before doing anything. Severe heat across large areas of Europe is a serious concern for spring oats which are going through key growth stages, but the impact of this weather is not known.

Key Factors:

• Heat waves across Europe with temps 36-45 degrees is causing damage to developing crops, but yet the extent of this damage is not known
• Low prices are discouraging UK farmers from selling and this is impacting liquidity and impacting trade
• High production in Spain is expected to impact demand for EU oats for the second year in a row, however a lack of farmer selling could give way to exports in the coming months
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, old crop UK prices remain supported by new crop production concerns and until the quality is known and farmers start selling it is difficult to see the market going down.

In the medium term, price direction will ultimately be determined by Scandinavian oat production and given they are the key exporting supplies of milling oats buyers will be keeping a close eye on any early supply issues.

Longer term, low prices for crop 2027 could continue to discourage growers from planting milling oats, if this trend continues for a third year in a row, then we could see the cyclical rally in 2027 that is caused in the UK by poor production.

Pulses

The weather continues to dominate pulse crops, with the current heat wave putting a lot of stress on both peas and beans. Pulse crops require further rainfall to keep things moving in the right direction and stop them dying off early, and whilst we’re still some time away from cutting the new crop, early reports on vining pea yields have been highly variable.

Key Factors:

• New crop bean interest is starting to pick up a little as we near the start of harvest, although overall is still steady, and the focus is still primarily from the poultry sector. As in previous weeks, beans continue to take direction from movements in London Feed Wheat futures, although this is likely to correlate less as we get in to harvest.
• Pea crops across Europe are now entering a critical period, with the early harvest having commenced in France. Recent high temperatures, combined with a lack of meaningful rainfall since mid-March, have had a notable impact on both crop quality and yield, with production currently reported to be below last year’s levels. The remainder of Europe is expected to begin harvest shortly, which will provide a clearer picture of overall crop performance across the region.
• Here in the UK, vining pea harvest has started, yields are mixed to start,  although expectations remain that results will improve as harvest progresses. However, the prolonged heatwave currently affecting much of the country, with temperatures reaching as high as 36°C in southern regions, is likely to place additional stress on spring crops. As a result, it will take time before the full impact on crop health, quality and yield can be accurately assessed.
• In the meantime, there appears to be a lack of consumer demand for both old crop and new crop supplies. Whilst there are known gaps to be filled between the two crop years, buyers seem reluctant to commit further at present, preferring to assess crop quality and harvest progress before extending coverage.
• As highlighted in recent market updates, social media communications and through the awareness campaigns issued by PGRO, growers should remain alert to the potential presence of Pea Bruchid Beetle. We strongly encourage all growers to follow the latest guidance and recommendations that have been circulated. Growers seeking guidance on crop management should make full use of the extensive technical and agronomic support available through PGRO, as well as Keith Costello’s latest crop bulletins. Members have access to a wide range of resources, while farm trading representatives can provide further information on accessing relevant advice and support.
  
  

Outlook
Pulse markets are entering a critical phase as prolonged heat and limited rainfall threaten yield potential across both UK and European crops. Harvest results over the coming weeks will provide greater clarity on production prospects, while buyers remain cautious pending quality assessments. Weather will remain the key market driver, with rainfall needed to support late crop development and underpin confidence in new-crop supply.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As planning for autumn rotations gets underway, attention is quickly shifting toward securing seed. With several new headline varieties in short supply, early conversations and early orders will be crucial to guarantee access to the latest genetics.

Key Factors:

• Trials Days
  Across June and July, ADM is partnering with leading plant breeders to host a series of Trials Days throughout England. These events give growers the chance to walk plots, compare current Recommended List varieties with the next wave of candidates, and gather practical insight ahead of autumn decisions.

Upcoming dates:  

2 July – Limagrain, Rothwell  

7 July – KWS, Yorkshire

Alongside variety performance, the days offer the opportunity to discuss disease pressure trends, new breeding technologies and market direction with breeders and ADM Agriculture specialists. Get in touch to book your place.

• Winter OSR

OSR continues to stand out as one of the strongest contributors to farm profitability, delivering reliable gross margins while also supporting wider agronomic goals. Its role in reducing grassweed pressure, interrupting cereal disease cycles and improving soil structure remains a major advantage.

Success starts with selecting the right genetics. ADM’s OSR portfolio is built around high output, strong oil content, agronomic reliability and robust disease resistance.

Check out our OSR portfolio here – ADM Seed Catalogue.

• OSR Establishment Scheme

To help manage early-season risk, ADM Agriculture offers an internal Establishment Scheme on selected high-performing hybrids. This provides added confidence and supports strong establishment in the field.

• Companion Crops for OSR

Fenugreek, buckwheat and berseem clover remain popular choices of companion crop species for OSR. Companion crops help support establishment by providing distinct odours and canopies to help deter flea beetle, plus nitrogen fixation with legumes. 

• Winter Wheat

Several notable newcomers are joining the winter wheat market this season:

Sparkler – Joint-highest Septoria tritici rating among Group 4 feeds and the highest-yielding Group soft on the RL.

KWS Aintree – A new Group 4 hard feed delivering consistently high yields across regions and seasons.

• Small Seeds

Demand for small seeds continues to build as growers prepare for summer drilling. Whether you’re planning grass leys, environmental mixes, game cover or bespoke blends, your ADM Farm Trader can help identify and secure the right mixture for your system. We have several mixtures available for fast delivery including summer cover crops and companion crops.

Outlook
As growers attend Trials Days and see varieties performing under local conditions, autumn plans will begin to take shape. Variety choice remains one of the most influential decisions in achieving a successful crop. Engaging early will help ensure access to the best genetics for drilling in 2026.

Fertiliser

Nitrates and Sulphates

European nitrate markets remain under pressure as seasonal demand fades and increased competition weighs on producer pricing, while the UK market has moved sharply lower following fresh producer offers. 

Key Factors: 

• European CAN markets continue to soften, with German CAN 27 falling to €355-380/t CIF inland as increased competition and subdued seasonal demand weigh on prices. 

• Producer offers remain towards the upper end of the range, though lower priced imported Greek tonnes have introduced further downward pressure into the market. 

• In the UK, pricing has weakened significantly following fresh new season offers. Yara has issued new Extran 33.5 offers today at £410-420/t, representing a meaningful reduction from previous market levels and providing a clearer benchmark for the domestic market. 

• Other UK AN offers have also softened, with spot values now ranging between £460-485/t delivered depending on supplier and region. 

• International AN markets remain mixed, with FOB values ranging from approximately $340-390/t depending on destination and availability. 

• Tunisia’s GCT tender attracted five offers ranging from approximately $460/t CFR to above $600/t CFR, highlighting the wide divergence in supplier pricing and freight economics. 

• Baltic availability remains relatively tight, supported by improving domestic demand and the early stages of seasonal restocking. 

• On the regulatory front, proposed changes to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism continue to be monitored. Falling urea prices have reduced the likelihood of any temporary CBAM suspension being triggered, with both urea and UAN now sitting below the proposed intervention threshold. 
  
  

Outlook 
Nitrate markets are expected to remain under pressure in the near term as seasonal demand continues to fade and lower priced offers filter through the market. The latest UK Extran pricing provides a clear indication that producers are becoming increasingly competitive ahead of the new season. While regional supply remains generally balanced, softer urea values and cautious buyer sentiment are likely to continue weighing on nitrate prices through the remainder of June. 

Urea

Global urea markets have entered a period of consolidation as supply chains normalise following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while seasonal demand remains subdued across most major importing regions. 

Key Factors: 

• Urea prices have stabilised following the sharp correction seen through June, with market activity remaining limited as buyers and sellers await clearer post summer demand signals. 

• Physical exports from the Middle East continue to recover. At least eight urea laden vessels carrying approximately 335,000 tonnes have transited the Strait of Hormuz since 19 June, with floating inventories falling to around 525,000 tonnes from a peak of approximately 1.2 Mt in mid April. 

• The reopening of Hormuz continues to improve global supply availability, easing some of the logistical constraints that supported prices earlier this year. 

• Egypt has revised its export levy structure, replacing the previous fixed $90/t export duty with a 10 percent ad valorem FOB levy. At current market prices this significantly reduces the tax burden on producers and improves export competitiveness. 

• Egyptian granular urea is now assessed around $425/t FOB, a sharp correction from the $780 to $810/t FOB levels seen during the height of the Middle East disruption in early May. 

• US sanctions relief has also improved market access for Iranian petrochemicals, allowing US dollar denominated purchases of Iranian urea and ammonia through to 21 August. As Iranian production continues to recover, these tonnes are expected to flow primarily into Brazil, India and other emerging markets rather than the US. 

• Globally, prices have stabilised around $410 to $450/t FOB across the Middle East, with Brazilian values holding around $400 to $410/t CFR and US NOLA recovering marginally to $355 to $360/st FOB. 

• Demand remains subdued across most regions. Europe has seen very limited activity amid the current heatwave, while many market participants are delaying purchases ahead of next week’s IFA conference. 

• China continues to maintain minimum export prices of $500/t FOB into India through 20 July, providing an important floor to global pricing despite softer international sentiment. 

• India’s NFL tender has now largely concluded, securing 1.7 Mt at $444.90/t CFR east coast and $449.30/t CFR west coast, leaving no major immediate demand catalyst for the market. 
  
  

Outlook 
Urea markets are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term. Improving Middle East logistics and recovering Iranian exports continue to increase global supply availability, while subdued seasonal demand limits upside potential. However, Chinese export floor prices and lower Egyptian export taxes should help establish a firmer price floor, with the market now looking towards post harvest demand and the outcome of the IFA conference for its next directional catalyst. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1588	1.3160	1.1357

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
June26	140-145	170-180	214-224	425-435