ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Summary

Grain markets have entered September on a firmer footing, with Black Sea disruption, tightening European supplies and concerns over US crop potential supporting prices. Heavy speculative buying has amplified the move, although Australia’s improving crop outlook and the prospect of restored Black Sea flows provide counterweights. Markets remain highly headline-driven and vulnerable to sharp reversals.

Key Points

Black Sea risk remains central: Attacks on Ukrainian ports and Russian infrastructure are disrupting flows, while Ukrainian and Russian exports are running well below last year. Turkey’s attempts to broker improved shipping routes offer potential downside, but near-term progress appears limited.

European wheat fundamentals are tightening: French and wider EU production estimates have fallen sharply, while EU exports are running ahead of last year. Demand for higher-protein French wheat is particularly strong as buyers seek alternatives to disrupted Russian supplies, supporting North European basis levels.

US weather is becoming increasingly important: Hot and dry conditions across the Central and Southern Plains, Delta and parts of the Midwest threaten crop potential. Corn production estimates are already below USDA forecasts, while soybean and corn condition ratings have weakened as crops mature ahead of normal.

Speculative positioning is providing significant support: Funds have become markedly more bullish across wheat and corn. Corn managed-money length is estimated above 445,000 contracts, potentially a record, while wheat shorts have been sharply reduced. This adds momentum but leaves markets exposed to profit-taking.

Alternative supply provides a bearish counterweight: Improved Australian rainfall has lifted the 2026/27 wheat crop forecast to around 29.9–32 MMT, while Kazakhstan expects higher exports. Russia also holds substantial stocks and is seeking to increase Baltic shipments, although these routes cannot fully replace lost Black Sea capacity.

Outlook

The market remains caught between geopolitical supply disruption and improving production prospects elsewhere. Black Sea developments will continue to drive headline volatility, while US finishing weather and European export demand offer further support. With speculative positioning already heavily bullish, any meaningful improvement in Black Sea logistics or better US crop estimates could trigger a sharp correction.

Feed Barley

Feed barley remains firm and competitively priced, with forage concerns limiting grower selling and supporting domestic demand.

Feed barley prices will remain exposed to global geopolitical volatility, although attractive relative value and strong FOF demand should provide underlying support to UK prices.

Rapeseed

Weekly Oilseed Rape Market Update

Oilseed markets have generally pushed higher over the past week, helped by renewed strength across the soybean complex, sharply firmer crude oil and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Soybeans have broken through several technical resistance levels, while soybean oil has been the standout performer following supportive US biofuel policy news. Rapeseed has followed the broader oilseed complex higher, although improving European planting conditions and increasingly overbought technical indicators are starting to temper some of the bullish momentum.

• Soybeans: CBOT soybeans have had a constructive week, helped by continued US export demand, including further Chinese buying, alongside less favourable finishing weather for the US crop. Crop ratings slipped to 58% good/excellent, while recent estimates point towards a 52.6bpa yield. Technically, the market has broken through several resistance levels, trading above the 9-day moving average and second swing resistance. Momentum remains positive, although the market is now becoming overbought and is meeting resistance around $13.30/bu. Soybean oil has been particularly strong, reaching a six-week high following supportive EPA biofuel announcements and moving towards 70¢/lb. 
  
  
• Crude oil: Energy markets have provided an important tailwind for vegetable oils. Crude initially moved higher following tighter-than-expected US stock data before geopolitical risk accelerated sharply as tensions between the US and Iran increased. By Tuesday, crude had surged $4.45 to close at $90.22/barrel. The technical picture remains bullish, with prices trading above the 9-day moving average and second swing resistance. However, RSI is now above 70, signalling increasingly overbought conditions. Resistance sits around $93.15 before the next upside target at $94.48/barrel. 
  
  
• Canadian canola: Canola participated in the wider oilseed rally, gaining C$5.70 and finishing around C$805/t earlier in the week. That left the market sitting directly against overhead resistance and, importantly, it has not yet produced the convincing technical breakout needed to extend the move. From here, the market needs another catalyst from soybeans, vegetable oils or energy to generate fresh buying interest. A move towards and eventually through the C$840 area would provide much stronger confirmation that the underlying trend is continuing rather than simply testing the top of the recent trading range.
  
  
• MATIF rapeseed: MATIF rapeseed has remained well supported by strength in the wider oilseed and vegetable oil complex. Prices briefly pushed above €540/t, although the market still needs a more convincing close through resistance to confirm another leg higher. Fundamentally, recent French rainfall has helped planting and establishment, but the return of hotter and drier weather is raising concerns around emergence. Australian production is forecast at 7.3mmt, around 5% below last year, while changing Black Sea trade flows are also helping French exports clear accumulated port stocks. 
  
  

Outlook

The overall oilseed picture remains constructive, with soybeans, soybean oil and crude all maintaining positive technical trends and continuing to offer support to rapeseed. However, several markets are now approaching overbought territory and important resistance levels, so some consolidation would not be surprising after the recent rally. For MATIF rapeseed, a sustained move through recent resistance would strengthen the bullish case, while failure to hold current levels could see the market settle back into its previous trading range.

Pulses

Pulses

The UK bean harvest is drawing to a close, with only the far north still to clear. The transition from field to store is now shifting the market’s focus towards availability, quality and demand rather than harvest progress itself. London wheat remains the main reference point for bean values, but with fresh crop increasingly accessible, the burden of additional supply is likely to become more evident as we move further into autumn.

Key Factors

• The bean market remains caught between limited demand and a steadily improving supply position. Human consumption business is particularly challenging, with UK origin unable to compete comfortably with Baltic and Australian beans into Egypt. Large Egyptian inventories are adding to that pressure. Quality is another hurdle, as bruchid damage, splits and broken beans continue to limit the proportion of the crop suitable for human consumption. Feed values are now approaching to import parity.
  
  
• Recent rainfall has been a welcome change following the drier conditions seen through much of the summer. While moisture levels have improved in places, the benefit is as much about preparing soils for the next cropping cycle as it is about the current crop. Growers are now turning their attention towards autumn drilling and next year’s pulse area, with rotation, gross margin and agronomic benefits all likely to feature in those decisions. The ongoing uncertainty over UK CBAM provides an additional variable.
  
  
• There is little to provide a fresh catalyst in peas. Harvesting across the UK and much of Europe is now largely finished, leaving the market to digest a crop characterised by notable differences in yield and quality between regions. Canadian harvest activity is progressing, with early reports suggesting production may not quite match earlier expectations. More representative samples and continued harvest progress should help establish the true supply position.
  
  
• The international market is showing some tentative signs of life, but this has yet to translate into meaningful additional volume. Buyers remain reluctant to take substantial positions while quality and specification remain uncertain, while sellers are also weighing up the merits of releasing recently harvested crop. The result is a market that remains relatively thin and cautious rather than one driven by strong conviction from either side.
  
  
• Looking ahead, the key question is whether demand can keep pace with the increased availability of new crop. With harvest virtually complete, more beans will progressively become available to the market and this could cap rallies unless buying interest strengthens. London wheat is likely to continue setting the tone, but the underlying pulse balance suggests upside will be difficult to sustain without a clear improvement in demand.
  

Outlook

With harvest largely complete, rising bean availability is likely to cap rallies unless demand strengthens, with UK feed values approaching import parity and human consumption demand subdued. London wheat should remain the key directional influence, while pea markets await clearer signals from Canadian supply. Improving international buying interest could provide support, but the underlying balance points to limited upside through autumn.

Seed

Now that we’ve entered September and OSR drilling is underway across much of the UK, growers have a broad selection of strong variety options in both OSR and winter cereals to choose from. 

Key Factors:

Oilseed Rape

For those needing fast turnaround, we can offer quick delivery on Karat, Duplo, LG Atom and several other hybrids within our OSR portfolio. Consignment stocks are positioned across the UK, giving convenient collection points for last‑minute or top‑up orders. 

Still weighing up the right fit for your farm? Here are a few standout choices:

• Atom – A vigorous Limagrain hybrid with high yield potential and CSFB resilience characteristics.
• Karat – Joint highest gross output on the Recommended List, supported by excellent stem health.
• Pi Pinnacle – A reliable conventional option with consistent performance.
  
  

For growers facing cabbage stem flea beetle pressure, companion cropping continues to be a valuable tool. Fenugreek, buckwheat and berseem clover can help support establishment by creating distinct odours and canopy structures that may deter flea beetle activity, while also contributing to nitrogen fixation.

Winter Wheat Seed

Top choices for this season include:

• KWS Scope – Strong, stiff straw, high yields and well suited to early drilling.
• KWS Arnie – A clean, high‑yielding Group 2 with robust agronomics.
• LG Defiance – One of the highest‑yielding Group 4 hards, with good yellow rust resistance and a strong disease package.
• Sparkler – Excellent Septoria rating and the highest‑yielding Group 4 soft.
• Bamford – A market‑leading Group 3 with dependable performance.

Small Seeds

Whether you’re looking for an SFI mixture, a grass ley, a companion crop or something more tailored, we can help you choose a mix that suits your system. Get in touch to explore options.

Outlook

With drilling progressing, timely decisions on variety choice will help set crops up for a successful season. Our farm traders are on hand to discuss requirements.

Fertiliser

Overview and Geo-politics

Global fertiliser markets continue to navigate significant geo-political frictions, elevated energy costs, and strengthening agricultural pressures. Logistical disruption remains centred on the Middle East, where commercial vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be impeded. Ten bulk vessels carrying over 520,000 tonnes of non-Iranian urea remain trapped inside the Persian Gulf. To mitigate exposure to the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, vessel operators are increasingly utilising longer, more cautious transit paths, such as the southern Omani passage. This reduces prompt vessel availability globally, meaning that even when theoretical supply exists on paper, physical execution delays are preventing the market from balancing rapidly.

The EU natural gas price rose further again this week, hitting €71.8/MWh on Tuesday keeping domestic European ammonia and nitrate production under significant pressure. Brent crude oil also pushed higher up 9.49% on last week sitting at $96.8/bbl, the higher end of the 52 week range (58.72-126.41).

In direct response to the global supply chain volatility CHS Inc and Morocco’s OCP Group announced a $450 million phosphate fertiliser plant in Louisiana late last week. The facility aims to produce over 1 million tonnes annually in turn reducing the US dependency on imported phosphates by 48% if successful.

Urea

Western urea benchmarks surged aggressively, driven by immediate supply tightening from the Middle East and brisk import appetite across the Americas. In the US Gulf, NOLA barge values experienced a sharp upward correction, jumping into the upper-$440s/st FOB. Spot trades concluded between $442–449/st FOB NOLA (up more than $30/st week-on-week), with January 2027 forward barges already changing hands at $443–450/st FOB. In Brazil, CFR granular urea values climbed to $450–455/t CFR, with aggressive supplier offers reaching $470/t CFR and October paper derivatives trading up to $480/t CFR.

In North Africa, Egyptian producer Alexfert breached previous ceiling levels, selling granular urea at $505/t FOB for September loading into Europe. Middle East granular FOB indications firmed to $420–430/t FOB, while Nigerian material rose to $435–455/t FOB.

Amid seemingly ever broadening and tightening restrictions on fertilizer exports in 2026, China is reversing course on urea. After effectively halting exports in 2024, Chinese authorities have significantly relaxed urea trade restrictions.

China’s urea exports to total 6.3 Mt this year – their highest in a decade.

With wheat at ~£200/MT Nov 27, urea at £475/MT is a grain nitrogen ratio on urea of 2.37:1 – so the sale of 2.37 tonnes of wheat today will afford a tonne of fertiliser.

Nitrates and Sulphates

Ammonium sulphate (AS) firmed on strong Brazilian demand ahead of China’s 15 September CIQ export deadline. Compacted AS reached $230–240/t CFR Brazil, with southern offers testing $245/t CFR. Chinese standard caprolactam AS held at $190–194/t FOB, while compacted material hovered at $200–205/t FOB.

European nitrates remained sluggish. German CAN 27 traded at €365–385/t CIF inland, facing farmer resistance above €400/t due to cheaper urea nutrient equivalents. Baltic AN held at $330–360/t FOB. In the US, the Department of Energy awarded $5 million to Nitricity to develop plasma-based, ammonia-free nitrate production.

Ammonia

The European market faces severe margin compression. TTF gas spikes pushed Western European ammonia production costs above $920/t (before ETS and handling), compared to August averages of $799/t and 1 September levels of $880/t. With imported ammonia assessed at $680/t CFR duty-paid/free, domestic production is $100–200/t more expensive than imports. Consequently, Agrofert (2.78 Mt/yr capacity) is preparing production cutbacks across European plants as rising natural gas costs and high emissions allowance prices squeeze margins.

Phosphates

Phosphate benchmarks continue to soften East of Suez despite tight supply. DAP CFR India fell to $925/t spot, with suppliers offering flexible terms, while China DAP FOB held at $778/t. Brazil MAP CFR eased to $850/t, and US NOLA DAP barges held at $795/st FOB. Speculation that China will ease export restrictions remains unfounded; domestic autumn use and winter reserve mandates will keep Chinese exports closed through year-end.

Potash

Regional divergence persists:

• Brazil: Granular MOP declined to $390/t CFR due to high port inventories and cautious demand.
  
  
• Asia: Chinese MOP imports rose 47% year-on-year to 10.1 Mt (Jan–Jul). China’s cross-border contract rolled over unchanged at $374–377/t DAP
  Manzhouli. Southeast Asian standard MOP held steady at $402/t CFR, pending results from Pupuk’s 75,000 t tender.
  
  

Outlook

• Urea: Granular urea faces continued near-term upside in Western markets, driven by Strait of Hormuz delays, lean US fall supply, and surging European production costs. Asian prills will lag due to muted regional demand
  
  
• Nitrates & Sulphates: AS will maintain momentum through mid-September until the Chinese CIQ window shuts. Nitrates will stay closely tied to European gas volatility and farm-gate adoption of subsidy programs.
  
  
• Ammonia: European plant curtailments are imminent as gas costs exceed $920/t, driving Atlantic import demand while Asian pricing remains capped by high inventories.
  
  
• Phosphates & Potash: Phosphates will remain soft-to-stable East of Suez, supported by China’s export freeze. Potash is set to consolidate around $390/t in Brazil, with Asian contract demand providing a global floor
  
  
  

British farmers face a looming fertilizer shortage as the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz chokes off more than a third of the world’s supply. Heavily reliant on imports, the UK agriculture sector has been warned that delaying orders could trigger severe logistical bottlenecks ahead of the brief spring application window. Already battered by severe summer heatwaves, the National Farmers’ Union is urging the government to issue immediate interest-free loans to ease cashflow, warning that Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s pledged £65 million is insufficient to secure the nation’s food production. By booking cover now, farmers can bypass these looming logistical chokepoints, insulate their businesses from further global price shocks, and physically guarantee the inputs required to protect next season’s crop yields.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1655	1.3514	1.1592

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Sept26	181-191	199-214	235	450-460