Market Reports

Wheat

Global grain markets remained under pressure as record Northern Hemisphere crops, favourable South American weather and intense Black Sea competition weighed on values. Currency swings amplified regional divergences: a softer dollar briefly supported US markets while stronger European currencies eroded export competitiveness. USDA updates confirmed ample wheat supplies, steadier corn fundamentals and subdued soybean demand.

Key Factors:

• Record-large Canadian crops, expanding Argentine and Australian output, and favourable Brazilian weather reinforced an oversupplied global grains environment. Wheat remained the heaviest market, with Black Sea exporters maintaining dominance and Argentina’s tax cuts pushing prices to multi-year lows.
• US corn was the relative bright spot, supported by strong export sales and tighter WASDE stocks. Soybeans lagged despite sporadic Chinese buying, while wheat stayed range bound. USDA baseline projections showed acreage shifting from corn and wheat into soybeans for 2026/27.
• European wheat markets softened under a firm euro and aggressive international competition. French crop conditions remained exceptional, but export premiums struggled to attract offers. UK futures hovered near key support with limited farmer selling and sluggish cash-market liquidity.
• A weaker US dollar lent temporary support to American export competitiveness, while stronger EUR and GBP weighed on European grain pricing. Expectations of US rate cuts and stabilising eurozone outlook shaped market sentiment across all exchanges.
• The WASDE confirmed record global wheat production and modestly tighter US corn stocks. Argentina’s broad export tax cuts further pressured world values.
  
  

Outlook 
With global supplies abundant and South American weather broadly favourable, grain markets face continued downside risk into early 2026. Seasonal farmer selling, currency trends and geopolitical developments, particularly in the Black Sea, will shape short-term volatility. Any price rallies are expected to attract selling, given comfortable balance sheets and persistent export competition.

Malting Barley

Old-crop malting barley remains subdued but underpinned by feed values and low crop-26 expectations over recent weeks.

Key Factors:

• Old-crop trading is quiet once again, with the familiar pattern of slow farm selling and weak demand. Values are being held up by the feed market prices over the last month.
• New-crop activity has picked up over the last few weeks, with malting buyers stepping in to cover early brewing needs. With acreage expected to shrink next season, a tighter supply picture is undoubtedly on the cards.
  
  

Outlook
Short-term upside remains limited due to sluggish demand, but current feed markets are cushioning the downside, and a late-season squeeze is still possible if availability of quality barley tightens.

Feed Barley

Markets have softened slightly over the past week as domestic and export demand eases, despite a slowdown in farmer selling as Christmas approaches.

Key Factors:

• Markets have tracked sideways to slightly lower over the last week as demand on the export markets drift away. We are seeing inverted markets in European destinations heading into the New Year, reflecting the logistical squeeze on the nearby.
• Domestic values are holding relatively steady, but the tone is feeling softer as demand drifts.
• Origination has slowed significantly as farmers start to think about closing the doors for the Christmas Holidays.
  
  

Outlook
We anticipate prices to remain range-bound heading into Christmas as interest for feed barley softens, but farmer engagement remains slow.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets spent the week trading in choppy ranges as South American weather, shifting macro sentiment, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty shaped direction across the complex. Soybeans weakened early as US sales lagged targets and Brazilian rainfall improved, while crude oil extended its downward drift on renewed supply concerns. Canola and rapeseed both probed key technical support zones, with heavy global stocks tempering rallies. Headline flow stayed light, but shifting currency moves and fund positioning influenced daily sentiment.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans saw a breakthrough support, pressured by improved Brazilian rainfall, sluggish US export pace, and repeated failure to sustain rallies after flash sales to China. Prices have moved halfway toward the next downside target before stabilising on Wednesday’s renewed export interest. Argentina’s unexpected cut to its export tax to the lowest since 2007 encouraged farmer selling and added weight to nearby values. For now, the focus will remain on whether US commitments can close the gap to the 12mmt pledge by late January.
• Crude oil has continued in a choppy sideways trade as the market weighs an expected over supply next year with a lack of progress between Ukraine and Russia. We have seen Iraq restore production at one of Lukoil’s oil fields which is one of the largest in the world, though focus quickly returned to headlines.
• Canola spent most of the week under pressure following the StatsCan production increase, with global stock burdens from Australia and Canada prompting questions over export timing and logistics. Prices briefly hit fresh lows before attracting short covering, with RSI readings flashing oversold. A meaningful bounce mid-week suggested potential longer-term support near the same level that triggered a reversal back in September. However, heavier-than-usual volumes show active repositioning from both funds and commercials therefore it will be key to see how we interact with this level.
• MATIF rapeseed has also seen some weakness through the week and has fallen to key support before seeing a boost higher after sentiment improved on confirmation that the Netherlands will extend RED III to 2035, offering a modest boost to the biofuel demand outlook. Currency continues to play a key role and has added further pressure following US Fed rate cut.
  
  

Outlook
Near term direction across oilseeds hinges on South American weather, export demand follow-through, and broader risk sentiment. Soybeans remain vulnerable if US sales fail to accelerate, while crude oil’s sideways trade continues to dictate the tone for vegetable oils. Canola and rapeseed sit on important technical floors that must hold to maintain a constructive year-end tone with a focus on the large Canadian and Australian crops. Any deterioration in South American crops or shift in macro conditions could provide the next catalyst for sustained recovery.

Oats

3rd country demand stems the slide of EU milling oat prices, but how long will it last?

Key Factors:

• European milling oat markets have gained some recent demand into Turkey over the last few weeks which has helped to absorb some nearby supplies and prevented the decline in prices.
• Fresh demand into the EU for oats in general remains poor with many customers reporting to be nicely covered, however it is expected that their remains positions in Q1 and Q2 to cover.
• Feed oats continue to trade into ARAG for limited tonnages and due to the limited demand, it is likely that prices will remain low whilst supplies are available.
• Here in the UK, low £/€ is enabling sellers to compete into export markets and this has seen a few trades over the last few weeks. Prices have consequentially been supported but based on current S&D their looks to be a healthy supply of oats needing a home.
• Low oat prices and questions over the actual production estimates could see the 2025/26 carry out reduce but this will not be known until later in the season.
  
  

Outlook
The fall in milling oat prices has stopped for now, but more demand will be needed or reductions in supplies for prices to see a strong rally.

Pulses

The pulse market struggled to gain much traction this week, the Christmas break is clearly insight and activity is expected to be limited on either side of the festive period. Consumer interest remains muted, with attention largely focused on the ongoing Australian harvest. Domestically, beans and peas continue to struggle to attract demand at current price levels, which remain too high for most buyers.

Key Factors:

• Another subdued week for UK feed beans, very limited reported trades and minimal overall market activity. Feed bean prices remain around £25/mt above alternatives leaving them unattractive for inclusion in feed rations.
• The Australian new crop harvest has continued to accelerate, and bulk export shipments are beginning to appear in port line-ups. Quality and is better than expected and priced more competitively vs. UK origin for Q1 2026. The main question now concerns export capacity, given large exportable surpluses across multiple arable crops, competition for shipping slots could emerge.
• Trading in the pea market remains minimal as both buyers and sellers hold firm on pricing. Buyers continue to purchase only on a short-term, as-needed basis. In the UK, domestic demand remains non-existent, constrained by cautious feed buyers and limited export interest.
• Availability of pea buyback contracts is now extremely limited for 2026.
  
  

Outlook
There is little to suggest any near-term support for bean prices. Values are expected to remain flat to slightly weaker in the coming weeks. With beans still uncompetitive in domestic feed formulations and Australian shipments beginning to build, the market outlook remains largely unchanged, with limited upside potential in the short term.

Seed

As growers begin planning for the season ahead, ADM’s spring and autumn seed portfolio provides a focused overview of the strongest variety choices for 2026. From high performing spring barley and peas too important changes on the new AHDB Recommended List for autumn cereals, growers have a refreshed set of options designed to maximise yield potential, enhance disease resilience and support robust on farm decision making.

Key Factors:

• Spring seed: Laureate remains the leading spring barley for 2026, dominating malting and brewing markets, while RGT Planet continues to perform strongly on brewing contracts and Skyway and CB Score offer robust agronomic packages for challenging conditions. Our pea portfolio: Kabuki, Adder, Daytona, Butterfly and Concerto, provides growers with strong options across Marrowfat, Large Blue and Yellow types, though buyback availability is tight and early commitment is recommended; all pea seed for 2026 will be supplied with Nuello iN to support establishment and yield potential. ADM’s maize range covers a full spectrum of maturities, ensuring options suited to forage, biogas and grain production systems.
• Autumn seed: The new AHDB Recommended List was released last week, offering fresh insight for growers reviewing variety choices for the 2026/27 season. This year’s List brings several promising new additions across key crop groups, further strengthening the options available for both yield potential and agronomic resilience.
• One notable update concerns winter wheat disease rating. The RL has revised scores following the emergence of a new yellow rust strain capable of overcoming the YR15 resistance gene, previously regarded as a strong defence and present in roughly a third of listed varieties. While some varieties have seen significant reductions in their ratings, many still retain robust levels of resistance overall. These changes highlight the importance of reviewing the latest data and considering disease management strategies alongside variety selection.
• In winter wheat, new Group 1 variety Arlington offers strong agronomics (although is still awaiting full UKFM approval), Skyfall-like flexibility and OWBM resistance, but seed will be scarce until 2027 drilling. Among feed wheats, KWS Aintree stands out for high treated yield (with careful yellow rust management), LG Defiance for strong treated and untreated performance and suitability as a second wheat, and KWS Fowlmere for its very early maturity. Soft wheat Sparkler adds high yield and robust Septoria resistance. These sit alongside ADM favourites such as KWS Vibe, Bamford and KWS Scope.
• In winter barley, LG Capitol continues to impress with top-end feed yields, hybrids like Inys and Quantock offer vigour for blackgrass or marginal land, and Craft remains the leading malting option.
  
  

Outlook
As we move towards Spring 2026, aligning seed choice with both agronomic priorities and market expectations will be key to securing performance and profitability. With increasing pressure from weather variability and end-market standards, investing in well-proven genetics, supported by the right seed treatments, remains one of the most effective ways to build resilience into next season’s cropping plan. The new AHDB RL brings some exciting new additions to the table. Many of this year’s standout new varieties are expected to see strong early demand, with seed likely to sell out quickly.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European prices hit fresh seven-month lows; US futures ease on mild-weather revisions. 

Key Factors: 

• European futures fell toward €27/MWh, extending the year-to-date decline to roughly 45% and marking a fall of more than 90% from the 2022 crisis peak. 
• US-led ceasefire discussions between Ukraine and Russia have lifted expectations of a potential easing of sanctions on Russian energy, though no agreement has been finalised. 
• Warmer than normal conditions continue to depress heating demand. EU gas storage is 72% full as of 7 December, well below the EC’s 90% winter target. 
• In the US, futures pulled back toward $4.6/MMBtu as forecasts turned milder through 23 December. 
• Production in the Lower 48 remains strong at 109.7 bcfd, exceeding last month’s record and keeping storage levels around 5% above seasonal norms. 
  
  

Outlook 
European prices are expected to remain under downward pressure in the near term unless weather turns sharply colder or geopolitical risk escalates. In the US, mild-weather forecasts and strong production continue to cap upside momentum, though any sustained cold pattern could quickly tighten balances. 

Ammonia

Prices hold firm for now as the market awaits clearer confirmation of new supply. 

Key Factors: 

• Near-term downside pressure is building, but spot values remain supported by ongoing uncertainty around global supply flows. 
• Market sentiment has stabilised somewhat amid increasing indications that GCA is producing well, though the exact timing and consistency of output remain unclear. 
• The absence of confirmed incremental supply from GCA, the Middle East, or Trinidad continues to limit sellers’ willingness to adjust offers lower. 
• Buyers remain cautious, expecting clarity in the coming weeks but still acknowledging the risk of tightness if new volumes are delayed. 
  
  

Outlook 
Prices are likely to stay relatively firm until the market receives definitive confirmation of sustained additional supply. A clearer view on GCA output will be the key driver in determining whether the expected softening materialises before year-end. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Nitrates firm on tightening supply and CBAM uncertainty; sulphates remain rang bound as demand lags. 

Key Factors: 

• Sulphate values are expected to remain broadly range-bound, with Chinese production cuts and steady delivery demand supporting the caprolactam premium but failing to generate sustained upward momentum. 
• Brazilian buying interest remains weak, limiting any near-term upside in AS despite reduced Chinese output. 
• Nitrate prices continue to find support from tightening European supply as producers focus on January–February positions. 
• CBAM uncertainty is adding an additional layer of firmness to nitrate sentiment, with buyers increasingly cautious about delaying purchases into Q1. 
  
  

Outlook 
Sulphates should stay stable at current levels unless Brazilian buying rebounds, while nitrates look set to remain supported into early Q1 as supply tightens and regulatory headwinds guide buyers into the market. 

Urea

Market quietens as India steps back; limited Brazilian demand may curb further weakness. 

Key Factors: 

• The global urea market is expected to continue its subdued state for the remainder of this week as European demand continues to fade heading into year-end. 
• India is unlikely to issue a new purchasing enquiry before January, removing the primary source of near-term demand and leaving the market without a clear directional anchor. 
• Producer offers continue to soften in most regions, reflecting the absence of buying interest and increased willingness to negotiate amid rising inventories. 
• Some late-month demand may emerge from Brazil as buyers’ position for the Safrinha corn season, which could provide a modest floor for prices and slow the pace of decline. 
  
  

Outlook 
Prices are poised to drift lower through December unless Brazil absorbs more volume than expected. A meaningful recovery is unlikely before India re-enters the market in early 2026. 

Phosphates

Spot demand remains weak; prices continue to ease despite tight availability and rising sulphur costs. 

Key Factors: 

• Spot liquidity in the DAP/MAP market has been thin for several weeks, with falling demand outweighing the impact of limited global availability. 
• Brazil’s MAP market is now at a 17-month low, yet lower prices have not sparked renewed buying, underscoring weak affordability and muted farmer engagement. 
• Suppliers continue to face rising upstream sulphur costs, placing pressure on margins and increasing resistance to further price erosion. 
• Despite this, any deals concluded this week are expected to reflect additional price declines, given the lack of meaningful demand across key import regions. 
  
  

Outlook 
Further softening is likely through year-end. Prices should eventually find a floor given constrained global supply and elevated input costs, but in the near term the market remains firmly biased to the downside. 

Potash

Muted global activity, with Brazil showing the first signs of renewed strength while other regions soften. 

Key Factors: 

• Market activity remains quiet heading into the holiday period, with limited spot trading across most regions. 
• Brazil is the notable exception, where potash prices have begun to firm. Deals for January delivery have reportedly reached up to $370/t CFR as import shortfalls and improved farmer confidence support buying. 
• In the US, some trades have occurred at lower levels, with NOLA pricing slipping to around $306/st CFR, reflecting softer domestic demand and ample supply. 
• Elsewhere, buyers remain largely inactive, waiting for clearer pricing signals and contract developments. 
  
  

Outlook 
Near-term activity is expected to stay slow, but Brazil’s improving demand could provide the first sign of a floor in global pricing. Other regions are likely to remain stable-to-soft until post-holiday demand returns and negotiations for 2026 contracts advance. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1427	1.3410	1.1735

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Dec25	145-157	154-169	195-205	405-415