Market Reports

Wheat

Global grain markets found firmer footing as we approached the end of January, as wheat led a short covering rally, underpinned by a sharply weaker US dollar and renewed weather risk across the Americas and key Northern Hemisphere regions. Despite ample global supplies, price action suggests downside momentum is waning, with currencies and technicals increasingly steering near term direction.

Key Factors:

• Chicago wheat rallied to its strongest levels since early December, driven by aggressive short covering, heavy volumes and weather uncertainty around US winterkill and South American heat stress. A break above the long term technical resistance has improved sentiment, though supply remains comfortable globally.
• Currencies are dominating the macro tone, with a pronounced fall in the US dollar and strength in the Brazilian real supported US and Argentine competitiveness, while simultaneously capping European gains. The euro’s firmness continues to weigh on MATIF and UK futures, limiting follow through despite strength in global benchmarks.
• The South American outlook is mixed, with Argentina oscillating between brief rain relief and renewed heat and dryness, keeping crop stress concerns alive for corn and soybeans. Brazil’s outlook remains broadly favourable, though southern dryness and excessive northern rainfall are disrupting yield potential and harvest pace.
• Europe remains weighed down by large stocks, with European and UK wheat markets remaining structurally heavy, with ample old-crop stocks, soft basis and limited export momentum outside France. Futures struggle to sustain rallies and widening old/new-crop spreads are increasingly required to incentivise carry into 2026.
• Demand remains consistent, with US wheat export sales outperforming expectations, aided by the weaker dollar, while global buyers remain price-sensitive, highlighted by selective tender participation. Corn demand is steady, but large inventories continue to cap upside without a clearer weather-led supply shock.
  
  

Outlook
Markets appear to be transitioning from outright bearishness to a more range-bound, weather- and currency-driven phase. Wheat has technical momentum, but rallies will be tested by burdensome stocks and exporter competition. Sustained upside likely requires a confirmed weather event or further dollar weakness; otherwise, volatility rather than trend may dominate near term.

Malting Barley

Liquidity in the old crop malting barley market remains poor, with very limited fresh demand emerging. The negative demand outlook continues to weigh on prices, resulting in minimal trading activity for both old and new crop positions.

Key Factors:

• Some short covering in the old crop market have taken place over the past week, with a small number of FOB cargoes being washed out. However, low malting premiums combined with high feed prices, are discouraging fresh malting sales from farm suppliers.
• New crop trading has been minimal, which is unsurprising given the lack of buying activity from end users. Demand for July – December 2026 remains subdued, with maltsters expected to rely on carry-in stocks to meet their requirements.
• In the UK, old crop malting barley sales remain weak, as growers continue to favour feed barley due to poor premiums. The weak demand outlook for the 2026/27 crop is also discouraging spring barley plantings, with many growers opting for wheat, which offers more attractive gross margins.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, upside potential remains limited by weak demand. However, uncertainty surrounding new crop production could lead to sharp price movements should quality issues arise in the UK and Scandinavia.

Feed Barley

Another flat week for feed barley, with falling liquidity a key theme on old crop. Meanwhile, we are seeing some consumer coverage on new crop.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley markets have once again flatlined over the last week, as a stable origination price floor keeps selling ideas firm. Meanwhile, demand for exports to Ireland has taken a step back.
• Globally, barley continues to look relatively expensive versus other products in destination markets. However, international demand from China, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa remains engaged, which is drawing down the recently harvested bumper Southern Hemisphere crops.
• As prices have paused in the UK following a strong start to the year, we have seen a slowdown in farmer selling.
• New crop basis remains supported relative to recent levels, as expectations for the spring barley area remain low. Despite a narrower spread, flat prices are looking attractive to consumers, and some coverage has taken place over the last week.
• Weather will be a key watchpoint as the weeks progress. With the smallest barley area in over a decade forecast, any delays or weather issues during spring crop planting could add volatility to barley prices.
  
  

Outlook
Feed barley markets look relatively stable for the time being, with a balanced S&D outlook and domestic demand and feed on farm usage remaining steady, albeit with a slower buying appetite over the last week. Today, a significant rally looks unlikely without further support from macro markets.

Rapeseed

Ag markets saw choppy but generally supportive trade over the week, with volatility driven by weather risk, currency swings, and geopolitics. Early strength from winterkill concerns and firmer energy markets gave way to midweek pressure from a weaker US dollar pressuring EU markets and improved South American forecasts, before renewed speculative buying emerged late on. Oilseeds continued to take their lead from energy and meal markets, while currency movements remained a key determinant for European prices and UK ex-farm values.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans struggled to establish a clear direction but remained rangebound with a firm underlying tone. Strong US export sales early in the week provided support, although shipments continue to lag the five-year average. South American weather dominated sentiment: improving rains in Brazil and Argentina initially capped rallies, with harvest progress in Mato Grosso running well ahead of normal. However, renewed heat and dryness later in the week reintroduced weather premium, helping prices test key technical levels such as the 100-day moving average. Strength in soymeal improved board crush margins, offsetting relatively flat soyoil and allowing beans to hold ground despite overhead resistance.
• Energy markets were a consistent source of support for oilseeds. Crude oil posted solid gains overall, driven by a combination of geopolitical risk and supply disruptions. Comments from President Trump regarding Iran injected fresh risk premium, while winter storms across the US temporarily knocked out an estimated 15% of national crude output. Further support came from weather-related export shutdowns in Mexico. Although OPEC+ is still expected to maintain its pause on output increases, these near-term supply issues have kept bullish momentum intact and helped underpin vegetable oil values.
• Canola futures experienced volatility but managed to hold their upward trend. Farmer selling increased when we hit $14/bushel targets, though deliveries remain well behind average. Late-week trade was encouraged by signs of Chinese demand returning, with attention now turning to the next psychological target near $15/bushel.
• MATIF rapeseed maintained an upward bias despite notable currency headwinds. The contract broke above key resistance around €475 early in the week, confirming the broader uptrend, before experiencing modest pullbacks driven largely by EUR/USD strength and weaker rapeseed oil values. Importantly, prices in USD terms continued to improve, highlighting the distorting impact of currency on European values. A late-week pullback in the euro allowed MATIF to regain momentum and close above €477, though upside now looks more limited with significant overhead resistance at €484. Attractive UK ex-farm prices have encouraged increased farmer selling into rallies.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, volatility is likely to persist. Soybeans remain sensitive to South American weather and US dollar direction, with technical resistance still capping rallies. Crude oil continues to provide underlying support but remains headline driven. Canola’s upside will depend on sustained Chinese demand and clarity on trade policy risks. For MATIF rapeseed, the trend remains positive but stretched; further gains may attract increased farmer selling, keeping rallies in check unless energy markets or currency move decisively in its favour.

Oats

Very little trading activity has been reported over the past week, with a general lack of both buyers and sellers contributing to a stagnant market.

Key Factors:

• Demand from Turkey is expected to continue, although a recent burst of buying activity may see importers pause temporarily before returning to the market in the next few weeks.
• Feed oat demand remains generally weak. However, limited farmer selling in Spain is creating some opportunities for nearby sellers, particularly where favourable freight rates can be secured.
• In the UK, low domestic prices continue to restrict farmer selling, with many growers choosing to store them for a rainy day or feed them to livestock rather than purchasing more expensive alternatives.
• New crop prospects remain uncertain, with lower plantings expected due to weak spot prices and poor gross margins. As a result, growers are maximising alternative crops to improve overall returns.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, a significant price rally is likely to depend on sustained export demand or the emergence of new crop production concerns.

Pulses

Another steady week for pulses, with little engagement from consumers or producers alike. Beans values are unchanged and remain uncompetitive, whilst the pea market still looks to have a bearish outlook off the back of improving China/Canada relations. Overall, consumer engagement remains weak, within minimal activity, either on a direct or third party basis.

Key Factors:

• Another week of UK feed bean markets seeing little reported trade, with values still nominally unchanged and beans trading around £30-35/mt above competing feedstuffs such as Rapeseed Meal for the early summer, leaving feed beans largely uncompetitive in rations. At these values compared to other feedstuffs, beans still run the risk of losing the few friends they have in the poultry sector.
• Australian new crop is flowing into North Africa, and UK and Baltic origin beans still look less attractive, especially with the recent firming of GBPUSD hindering export competitiveness. Ramadan is approaching, and so the shipment window for pre-Ramadan arrival is almost shut.
• Pea market has seen little activity this week with several of the trade attending a large trade event in Dubai.  There seems to be lots of trade discussions around the renewed China and Canada trade flow but very little business trading.  As mentioned last week, it will all come down to price. Consumer interest remains limited. UK domestic demand is limited but improved on last week, but essentially the market needs to clear its long before buyers step back in for volume.
• Pea buyback contracts are all done, most processors and merchants have locked in their 2026 volumes.
  
  

Outlook
The outlook for pulse markets remains on the bearish side of neutral this week, with support lacking from both the feed and human consumption sectors. Beans are still uncompetitive versus alternative feedstuffs, whilst a backlog of Canadian peas is likely to start flowing in to China as the two nations relations continue to improve.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Processing of spring cereals and pulses has now commenced, aligning with the recent release of our Spring Seed Catalogue. This provides a timely opportunity to review the range of varieties available and how we can support growers in making informed varietal decisions for Spring 2026 drilling.

Varietal choice remains a critical component in setting crops up for a successful season. Achieving the right balance between yield potential, disease resistance and end-market demand continues to be vital when selecting varieties.

Key Factors:

• Across the spring cropping portfolio, well established and trusted varieties continue to dominate, underpinned by their consistent performance, strong agronomic reliability and wide market acceptance.
  Laureate remains the benchmark variety in spring barley for the malting and brewing sectors, supported by the continued strength of RGT Planet and the dependable agronomic profiles of Skyway and CB Score.
  In spring oats, Merlin and Isabel remain the leading choices, valued for both on farm consistency and strong end market support.
  Lynx spring bean continues to perform strongly and remains one of the most popular options available.
  For spring peas, the 2026 offering delivers a broad and versatile range across Marrowfat, Large Blue and Yellow pea varieties, with all seed supplied with Nuello iN as standard. This treatment enhances early vigour, supports establishment and maximises yield potential, and is also available as an optional addition across other spring-sown crops.
• Our maize portfolio spans early to late maturing varieties, allowing growers to match selections to their farming system, location and end use. The range supports forage, biogas and grain maize production.
• As spring approaches, attention is also turning to grass leys, environmental mixtures, fodder beet and other small seed crops.
• It is not too early to be considering winter seed requirements, with several of the new varieties already seeing strong demand. KWS Fowlmere stands out as a particularly interesting addition to the winter wheat Recommended List. Its ultra early maturity and class leading specific weight among Group 4 hard wheats make it an exciting prospect for the coming season.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, demand for proven, reliable varieties is expected to remain, particularly where performance consistency and end market security align. At the same time, interest in newer genetics offering agronomic and harvest advantages continues to build. Early engagement and forward planning will be key to securing preferred varieties and ensuring crops are well positioned to perform in Spring 2026 and beyond.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

Prices rebound as cold weather and low storage lift supply concerns. 

Key Factors: 

• European natural gas futures climbed more than 3% to near €40/MWh, approaching the highest level since June 2025, driven by cold weather expectations and critically low storage levels. 
• EU gas inventories have fallen to around 44% full, among the lowest seasonal levels since 2022, with particularly low stocks in Germany, France and the Netherlands. 
• Earlier freeze-related disruptions to US LNG production tightened supply into Europe, where more than half of LNG imports were sourced from the US last year. 
• EU policymakers are increasingly concerned about reliance on US LNG and are exploring diversification options. 
• US natural gas futures rose above $3.80/MMBtu amid volatile trading, as forecasts showed mixed temperature signals for early February. 
• US inventories are estimated to have drawn down more than 230 bcf last week, above the seasonal norm, although overall stocks remain around 5% above the five year average. 
  
  

Outlook 
Natural gas markets remain highly weather-driven and volatile. In Europe, low storage levels and ongoing LNG supply sensitivity keep prices biased to the upside during cold spells. In the US, near-term direction hinges on weather consistency and the pace of production recovery, with sharp price swings likely to persist as traders react to storage data and forecast changes. 

Ammonia

East – West divergence persists as Tampa settlement looms. 

Key Factors: 

• Length is building east of Suez, particularly in Asia, where improved availability and quieter spot demand are starting to weigh on prices. 
• West of Suez remains comparatively constrained, with limited spot liquidity keeping the Atlantic basin better supported. 
• Buyers and sellers are closely watching the February Tampa settlement, which is seen as the next major price signal for the global market. 
• Market expectations are split, with some anticipating softer values reflecting easing global tightness, while others argue for a rollover given ongoing constraint west of Suez. 
  
  

Outlook 
Near term price direction will hinge on the February Tampa settlement. A downward adjustment would reinforce the softening tone east of Suez, while a rollover would underline continued tightness in the Atlantic basin. Overall, the market is likely to remain uneven, with regional fundamentals driving price divergence rather than a broad-based global move. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Firm nitrate outlook with sulphates gradually strengthening. 

Key Factors: 

• Nitrate markets are expected to hold firm next week following the Yazoo shutdown, which has tightened availability. 
• Seasonal Baltic demand is providing additional support, with European nitrate values likely to strengthen as buyers look to secure nearby tonnes. 
• Ammonium sulphate prices are forecast to edge higher, underpinned by ongoing supply tightness in China linked to production controls. 
• European AS availability also remains constrained, limiting downside despite generally cautious buying interest. 
  
  

Outlook
Nitrates are likely to trend firmer in the near term, particularly in Europe, as supply disruptions and seasonal demand overlap. Sulphates should see a slower, more gradual uplift, with gains capped by broader demand conditions but supported by restricted supply in key producing regions. 

Urea

Firm tone building into February as demand centres re-engage. 

Key Factors: 

• Global urea prices are finding renewed support as the market tightens heading toward February. 
• US demand is expected to increase seasonally, providing a strong pull on Atlantic Basin tonnes.
•  India is widely expected to return to the market, which would absorb significant volumes and reduce availability elsewhere. 
• Supply flexibility remains limited across key exporting regions, amplifying the impact of incremental demand. 
  
  

Outlook 
Urea prices are likely to sustain a stable-to-firm trajectory into February, with upside risk if Indian tender activity materialises and US buying accelerates simultaneously. Absent a demand shock, the market looks increasingly supported rather than oversupplied. 

Phosphates

MAP strengthens relative to DAP as regional demand diverges. 

Key Factors: 

• MAP prices have moved higher in recent sessions, driven by sales into Brazil and Argentina, pushing MAP back to a premium over DAP for the first time in some time. 
• DAP prices have remained broadly steady, with India largely absent from the spot market and offering little directional influence. 
• In the US, MAP values are firming, while DAP is under pressure due to anticipated arrivals and a more comfortable near-term supply position. 
• Ethiopia retains some outstanding import requirements, though fresh clarity on timing and volumes is still awaited. 
  
  

Outlook
MAP is likely to remain better supported than DAP in the near term, particularly if South American demand persists. DAP prices may continue to lag unless India or Ethiopia re-emerge meaningfully, with any upside capped by expected arrivals in the US market. 

Potash

Brazil diverges as global MOP market remains broadly stable. 

Key Factors: 

• MOP prices are largely steady across most regions, reflecting muted demand and balanced near-term supply. 
• Brazil continues to be the outlier, with suppliers pushing offers higher despite weak underlying demand fundamentals and farmer resistance. 
• The disconnect in Brazil appears driven more by supplier sentiment and positioning than by genuine consumption-led demand. 
• Market attention is focused on the Fertilizer Latino Americano (FLA) conference in Miami this week, where discussions and potential deals could provide fresh price signals for the region. 
  
  

Outlook
Global potash markets are expected to remain stable in the short term, with limited catalysts for upside outside Brazil. Any sustained price increase in Brazil will require confirmation through executed business; otherwise, resistance is likely to re-emerge. Signals from FLA may shape near-term sentiment but are unlikely to materially change the broader stable-to-soft outlook. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1547	1.3804	1.1954

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Jan26	147-160	159-169	195-205	415-425