Thursday 27 November 2025

Wheat

Global grain markets remain heavy despite brief geopolitical rallies, with record Southern Hemisphere crops, competitive Black Sea pricing and soft export demand keeping wheat under pressure. Futures in Europe and the UK have repeatedly broken support, while US markets stay range-bound. Weather uncertainty persists, but ample global supply continues to dominate market direction.

Key Factors:

• Southern Hemisphere supply swells, with record Argentine wheat estimates and sharply higher Australian wheat, barley and canola forecasts reinforcing an already comfortable 2025/26 balance sheet. Quality concerns linger in Argentina, but volumes remain burdensome for global prices.
• Geopolitical tensions remain across global markets, especially around the Black Sea, although Russian and Ukrainian grain remains the most competitive, with Russia’s aggressive export pricing pressuring global benchmarks. Renewed threats to Ukrainian shipping briefly revived a “war premium,” but fundamentals remain overwhelmingly supply-driven.
• US markets have remained steady but capped following the Thanksgiving shutdown at the end of last week. US wheat is subdued amid global competition, while corn gains support from strong export and ethanol demand. The soy complex remains mixed, reflecting shifting Chinese buying and improving South American weather. Low river levels and deep cold is restricting logistics.
• European and UK markets have tested lower, with MATIF and London wheat repeatedly breaching key support levels amid stronger currencies, weak export performance and heavy global availability all weighing on sentiment. French wheat continues to struggle in North Africa, while UK markets remain thin, basis-driven and distorted by nearby shorts.
• Turning to Currency markets, they are offering some limited influence in our commodity markets, with EURUSD strengthening above 1.16 curbing EU export competitiveness, while a firmer GBP limited UK gains. Currency moves added noise, but failed to outweigh the dominant supply-side pressures across the cereals complex.
  
  

Outlook
With record Southern Hemisphere crops arriving into a well-supplied global market, grains are likely to remain defensive. Geopolitics may spark volatility, but sustained rallies appear unlikely without meaningful export demand improvement or significant weather disruption. Markets now look to next week’s December WASDE, as well as Christmas logistics and early 2026 crop development for fresh direction.

Malting Barley

Old-crop barley remains sluggish with limited supply and demand but is propped up by stronger feed values, while new-crop interest is picking up as malting buyers cover early needs amid expectations of tighter supply next season.

Key Factors:

• Old crop markets are once again slow and the same themes remain – slow supply and elusive demand. Prices are nominally supported on higher feed values over recent weeks, and we could see this trend continue later in the season, as a large carry to new crop exists and the malting barley S&D is losing supply to feed.
• New crop is seeing some more action again, and we see malting buyers in the market covering early brewer requirements. With a lower supply forecast next year on shrinking acreage, some upside could be on the cards if demand persists.
  
  

Outlook
We continue to see limited short-term upside given sluggish demand, but with feed markets providing support, downside risk appears limited, and a late-season squeeze remains possible if supplies of quality barley tighten.

Feed Barley

East Coast barley values are easing amid reduced export competitiveness, while UK domestic demand keeps prices steady week on week.

Key Factors:

• East Coast values are drifting as nearby shorts cover their execution requirements, and barley is now uncompetitive into feed rations in EU destination markets, which is stifling first-hand demand.
• UK domestic prices hold firm with continued feed demand and slower farmer selling ahead of Christmas.
• New-crop outlook unchanged, with barley tracking wheat and little fresh news this far out.
  
  

Outlook
We expect a continuation of sideways price action in the run up to Christmas, as export demand falls away yet domestic demand remains – regional spreads are likely to widen as a result. Significant price movement will need the help of a macro-market move, which doesn’t feel likely today.

Rapeseed

A choppy week across global commodity markets saw oilseeds struggling to build sustained momentum, with currency moves, South American weather, and ongoing geopolitical tensions guiding sentiment. The stronger EUR/USD repeatedly pressured European markets, while mixed crude oil trade added to the noise. Soybeans continue to battle between export demand concerns and variable South American forecasts, while Canadian canola and MATIF rapeseed both tested key technical levels as charts move into more corrective territory.

Key Factors:

• Soybeans have slowly moved lower through the week, Chinese purchasing remains slow for now, though the USDA maintain that they are on pace to hit 12 mmt by February. South American weather turned more favourable, weighing on the market, though crop forecaster Dr Cordonnier did trim Brazil’s estimate by 1mmt. Open interest has fallen on long liquidation, bringing futures back to key support areas. With $11.11 acting as support and the market repeatedly failing to push through, a decisive break could expose downside risk toward $10.55. Meal and oil spreads were mixed but did little to shift the overall tone, which remains heavy unless export demand improves.
• Crude oil was volatile but largely directionless, oscillating between geopolitical support and fundamentally bearish signals. Escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine brought intermittent war premium back into the market, but this was offset by concerns around overextension and a bearish API inventory build of +2.48 million barrels, against expectations for a draw. Despite brief rallies, the market continues to struggle for follow-through, with traders waiting for clearer signs on both global demand trends and whether peace negotiations can gain meaningful traction.
• Canadian canola has nor broken key trendline support as the market lacked fresh bullish catalysts. Early in the week, crush margins held firm, but momentum faded and values slipped below major moving averages. Market positioning ahead of the StatsCan release added selling pressure, amplified by a fresh wave of farmer selling as prices retreated below target levels. Expectations for the StatsCan report are for a 1.25mmt upward revision in production to 21.25mmt for 25/26.
• MATIF rapeseed experienced a back-and-forth week, capped repeatedly by resistance near €483–484 while managing to hold support around €475 until late in the period. Pressure from strength in the EUR/USD, larger Australian supply expectations, and softer soy/veg oil markets weighed on values. The contract recovered briefly midweek, but failed to sustain gains and returned to a lower trade. Prices are now tracking toward the 100-day moving average at €476.50, with a confirmed break pointing to further downside toward €470 before stronger support re-emerges.
  
  

Outlook
The near-term outlook across oilseeds remains cautious, with markets lacking a clear catalyst to reverse recent technical weakness. Soybeans will hinge on export demand and South American weather consistency, while crude oil is likely to continue trading headline-to-headline. Canola and MATIF rapeseed face seasonal supply pressure and softening chart structures. However, solid underlying veg oil demand and tightening crush margins could help stabilise values if macro headwinds ease.

Oats

Oat markets continue to see minimal trade, but the tide may be turning.

Key Factors:

• European buyers have continued to be largely absent from the market in recent weeks and this has helped to keep prices low. In contrast farmer selling has been poor and this is lending to minimal price action in the milling oat market.
• Demand into 3^rd country for nearby positions has helped add some support to prices but we will need to see this continue in order to see prices rise.
• Feed oats have seen some trade activity at levels in line with where they have been trading over the last few months at equivalent to £125 FOB UK.
• Here in the UK, trade activity has generally been lack luster with millers reluctant buyers for Dec/Jan positions with hopes of lower prices.
• Demand from the feed sector is starting to have an increasing interest at these levels so we could start to see this market bottom out. 
• Farmer selling is certainly very poor and given the lower plantings forecast for crop 2026 some will be contemplating rolling their stocks into new crop.
  
  

Outlook

All in all it feels like prices have reached a level where they cannot push much lower, but given the large UK surplus it comes down to a need for cash or logistical space in order to push prices lower.

Pulses

The Christmas lull is certainly in the air across the Pulse market, with little interest for either side of the festive period. Consumers are broadly disinterested, with the scant attention beans can garner together being on the current Australian harvest which is underway. Closer to home, they also have few friends at this current price point, being too expensive for most consumers to consider them.

Key Factors:

• Another quiet week for UK feed Beans this week, with near zero reported trade, with the market again broadly devoid of activity. With Feed bean values stubbornly remaining c. £25/mt away from competing against other feedstuffs such as Rapeseed Meal, their general attractiveness in to UK feed rations is negligible. Feed demand remains consistently flat, with little fresh interest.
• The Australian new crop harvest has again continued to gather pace this week, with new crop bulk exports starting to show in the line-ups. The big question now is around Australian elevation capacity, and with all arable crops looking to show good exportable surpluses, could there be a fight over what to export? Regardless, North African buyers are still keen to see what Australian new crop quality looks like, which is keeping any potential interest in UK/Baltic beans muted.
•  Pea market seed minimal trading activity as both buyers and sellers maintain firm price expectations. Buyers remain extremely hand-to-mouth, purchasing only as needed. Although seasonal logistics have improved slightly, global pulse markets are largely steady this week. In the UK, domestic demand continues to trail, pressured by cautious feed buyers and weak export interest.
•  Pea Buyback contracts are now in very short supply, as most processors and merchants have already covered their 2026 crop requirements. New contract opportunities are limited, with the few remaining offers focused mainly on niche varieties or specific quality specifications.
  
  

Outlook
There is little on the horizon to suggest any support to beans, and it is likely they will continue to track sideways to lower for the foreseeable. With continued uncompetitiveness into domestic feed rations, and bean boats starting to appear in Australian line ups, there is little to in the outlook which could offer support to bean values, with things looking to remain much the same for now.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yield.

Seed

The new AHDB Recommended List has been released this week, offering fresh insight for growers reviewing variety choices for the 2026/27 season. This year’s List brings several promising new additions across key crop groups, further strengthening the options available for both yield potential and agronomic resilience.

One notable update concerns winter wheat disease rating. The RL has revised scores following the emergence of a new yellow rust strain capable of overcoming the YR15 resistance gene, previously regarded as a strong defence and present in roughly a third of listed varieties. While some varieties have seen significant reductions in their ratings, many still retain robust levels of resistance overall. These changes highlight the importance of reviewing the latest data and considering disease management strategies alongside variety selection.

As we approach the end of 2025, growers are increasingly focused on planning their Spring 2026 cropping and securing the right seed. Making informed choices now will be crucial for achieving a productive, resilient season.

Key Factors:

• Spring Barley: Laureate is set to continue its dominance into Spring 2026, maintaining its status as the go-to variety for both malting and brewing markets due to its proven reliability and quality. Our broader portfolio also includes RGT Planet, Skyway and CB Score. RGT Planet remains a popular for brewing contracts, offering excellent grain uniformity and consistency across variable conditions. Skyway and CB Score bring strong agronomic packages, giving growers robust options in challenging conditions.
• Spring Wheat: For Group 1 milling, Ladum retains its position as our leading choice, combining competitive yields with a dependable disease resistance profile. For growers looking at Group 2 opportunities, Alicium continues to impress with its consistent protein, exceptional grain quality, and reliable Hagberg, making it well-suited to a wide range of requirements.
• Spring Oats: Our spring oat line-up, Merlin, WPB Isabel and the newcomer Caledon, offers solid choice and flexibility for growers. Merlin in particular is seeing growing interest thanks to its strong yield potential, low screenings, and dependable specific weight, making it a versatile option for growers targeting milling markets.
• Spring Beans: Lynx remains a standout choice within pulses, valued for its dependable yields, excellent standing ability and proven on-farm consistency. Its reliability across different soil types keeps it a trusted variety for those looking to strengthen their rotations.
• Peas: Our pea portfolio includes Marrowfats (Kabuki and Adder), Large Blues (Daytona and Butterfly), and Yellows (Concerto), providing growers with a strong range of options to suit different situations and market requirements. Availability on buyback contracts remains tight, so early commitment is advised. For spring 2026 drilling, all pea seed will be supplied with Nuello iN as standard. Supported by robust data from Syngenta, this treatment promotes more even establishment, improved plant health, and the potential for higher yields, helping to enhance overall crop performance and on-farm profitability.
• Maize: Whether forage, biogas, or grain production, we offer a comprehensive maize portfolio covering a full range of maturities. This ensures that there is a variety suited to every system, from early maturing options for shorter growing seasons to high-energy types designed to maximise feed value and output.
  
  

Outlook
As we move towards Spring 2026, aligning seed choice with both agronomic priorities and market expectations will be key to securing performance and profitability. With increasing pressure from weather variability and end-market standards, investing in well-proven genetics, supported by the right seed treatments, remains one of the most effective ways to build resilience into next season’s cropping plan.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas 
EU prices hit eight-month lows on warm weather and strong LNG supply, while US gas surges to three-year highs on export strength and early-winter cold. 

Key Factors: 

• European natural gas futures fell to €28 per MWh, the lowest since April 2024, as warmer weather, steady Norwegian flows and subdued Asian LNG demand kept winter risk contained. 
• US-led ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia raised the possibility of reduced conflict risk and, eventually, softer EU sanctions on Russian energy. 
• Record US LNG exports continued to weigh on both European and Asian prices, with Asian demand still muted. 
• EU gas storage stood at 75 percent on 29 November, comfortably positioned for early winter. 
• In the US, natural gas futures climbed to $4.95 per MMBtu, the highest in three years, fuelled by very strong LNG export demand and colder weather forecasts for the Northeast and Great Lakes. 
• US LNG exports rose 40 percent year on year in November to 10.7 million tonnes, while the EIA confirmed the start of winter withdrawals with an 11 Bcf storage draw. 
  
  

Outlook
EU gas prices are expected to remain soft in the near term as mild temperatures and strong LNG availability continue to outweigh geopolitical risk. Any real progress in ceasefire talks would add further downward pressure. US prices should stay firm into early December as heating demand and LNG exports remain elevated, though record production will limit the magnitude of any rally. 

Ammonia 
Global ammonia supply remains extremely tight as major outages persist, keeping prices elevated into year-end. 

Key Factors: 

• Ammonia availability remains severely constrained heading into late Q4, with no meaningful easing expected until new supply is confirmed from the US, the Middle East or Trinidad. 
• Ma’aden’s MPC unit in Saudi Arabia has been offline since late August. Although the producer is signalling a December restart, market sentiment increasingly doubts this timeline. Expected output losses now exceed 300,000 tonnes by year-end. 
• Nutrien’s Trinidad ammonia plant has been shut since 23 October due to disputes over port charges and gas supply. The closure has removed 85,000 tonnes per month from the market through late October and all of November, with the outage still ongoing.
•  Nutrien is sourcing spot cargoes to meet contractual obligations, adding further upward pressure to tight Atlantic Basin availability. 
• With outages in both east and west of Suez, spot supply remains minimal and sellers hold pricing power across key benchmarks. 
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia prices are expected to stay firm through December, with upside risk if Ma’aden’s restart slips further or Trinidad’s situation remains unresolved. Only the return of Middle Eastern or Trinidadian volumes, or confirmation of new US supply, would meaningfully soften the market in the short term. 

Nitrates and Sulphates 
European nitrates stay firm while sulphates remain mixed, with Chinese supply and Brazilian demand setting the tone. 

Key Factors: 

• European nitrates values remain firm as buyers shift their focus toward February positions. Actual deal levels are now expected to land above January indications, supported by higher producer offers from Yara and LAT Nitrogen across France and Germany. 
• Producers continue to hold the line on pricing, with farmers gradually beginning to accept higher levels after several weeks of resistance. 
• In ammonium sulphate, Chinese granular and caprolactam-grade AS continue to trade at parity, reflecting ongoing production cuts in China and constrained supply. 
• Market players are watching Brazil closely. A tightening urea market may spur renewed interest in AS, though high inland freight costs and timing constraints remain barriers. 
  • Sulphates beyond northwest Europe generally remain soft, but any early-Q1 imports into Europe will fall under CBAM, effectively raising replacement costs and supporting regional values. 
  
  

Outlook
Nitrates are expected to remain firm into early 2026 as producers maintain pricing discipline and buying activity shifts into the higher-priced February window. Sulphates should stay mixed: Chinese supply caps global upside, but northwest Europe may see further strengthening if buyers turn to AS as a nitrogen alternative and CBAM-adjusted replacement costs rise. 

Urea 
Market softens as India steps back and global demand thins into year-end. 

Key Factors: 

• India’s latest tender saw IPL secure 1.56 Mt for shipment to 15 January, bringing a temporary end to the strongest demand catalyst of Q4. 
• With India now on the sidelines until its next enquiry, global liquidity has thinned sharply. 
• European demand has cooled as pre-CBAM buying winds down and warehouses remain well covered. 
• The US and Australia are not expected to re-enter the market until late December or early January, removing two potential demand anchors. 
• Producer offers are already loosening, with bids drifting lower across the Middle East, North Africa and NOLA as participants position for a softer December. 
  
  

Outlook
A steady downward correction looks likely through the remainder of December. Without India pulling fresh tonnes and with major import regions seasonally quiet, sentiment is expected to remain weak until early-January demand returns and the timing of India’s next tender becomes clearer.

 

Phosphates 
Prices slip further on weak demand despite China’s exit and higher raw-material costs. 

Key Factors: 

• Granular DAP and MAP prices continue to come under pressure as spot demand remains extremely limited across major import regions. 
• China has now effectively exited the export market, yet this has not been enough to stabilise values given the softness in global buying appetite. 
• Producers face sharply higher sulphur costs, but these increases have not translated into price support due to weak downstream demand. 
• The recent removal of reciprocal tariffs in the US has accelerated price declines in that market. 
• Liquidity remains thin, with buyers largely absent and sellers competing for scarce outlets. 
• Market attention is now on the results of Jordan’s latest DAP tender, which may help establish a clearer short-term price signal. 
  
  

Outlook
Further declines are expected in the near term, though not at a pace indicative of a sharp correction given constrained global availability. A firmer direction is unlikely until fresh demand emerges, or until early 2026 when China’s return to export markets becomes clearer. 

Potash 
Prices soften in Southeast Asia; India contract talks expected to begin soon. 

Key Factors: 

• Southeast Asia is expected to see further gradual price declines as supply remains comfortable and buyers push back against current offers. 
• Early indications suggest India may begin discussions on its 2026 MOP contract as soon as December, earlier than previously anticipated. 
• In Brazil, affordability concerns continue to hinder buying interest, keeping the market subdued even as prices hold steady on paper. 
• Global supply remains healthy, with no major disruptions reported, reinforcing the soft tone across spot markets. 
  
  

Outlook
Short-term direction remains stable-to-soft. A clearer signal will emerge once India initiates formal contract negotiations, though subdued Brazilian demand and abundant supply suggest limited upside in the near term. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1437	1.3350	1.1669

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Dec25	145-157	154-169	195-205	405-415