ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Grain markets found some support following a bullish grains USDA report, with significantly tighter-than-expected US corn and soybean balances lifting the wider complex including wheat. Wheat strengthened, supported by robust international demand, tightening European availability and continued Black Sea uncertainty. However, improving South American crop prospects and the prospect of increased Southern Hemisphere supplies remain limiting factors. 

  

• The USDA reduced US corn ending stocks to 1.758bn bushels, below market expectations, providing a stronger fundamental backdrop for feed grains. Soybean stocks were also cut to 300m bushels. Wheat was less encouraging, with global ending stocks increasing to 280.8MMT, although prices benefited from broader grain market strength. 
  

  

• International buying activity remains encouraging, with Algeria reportedly purchasing around 700,000 tonnes of milling wheat, following a further 600,000 tonnes in October. China has also reportedly bought French and Argentine wheat. This reinforces the view that attractive global prices are stimulating demand, helping offset concerns surrounding rising global production. 
  

  

• French export availability continues to diminish, with shipments potentially reaching 4.5–5MMT by the end of December. At the current pace, France could exhaust its third-country exportable supplies by February or March. This is supporting Matif wheat spreads and nearby prices, despite increasingly competitive Russian export offers. 
  

  

• Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations have made limited progress, while attacks on shipping and export infrastructure continue to create uncertainty. Reports of Ukrainian attacks on Russian port infrastructure have reinforced concerns over export availability. Any diplomatic breakthrough could quickly remove some of wheat’s geopolitical premium, although the immediate outlook remains uncertain. 
  

  

• Corn has struggled to extend its post-WASDE recovery, with a stronger US dollar and concerns over export competitiveness limiting gains. Meanwhile, speculative positioning remains heavily reduced, following nine consecutive weeks of agricultural fund selling. US wheat positioning is particularly bearish, potentially leaving scope for short-covering should geopolitical risks intensify. 
  

  

Grain markets appear to have established a more convincing floor, with tighter US corn stocks and improving international wheat demand reducing immediate downside risks. European wheat remains particularly well supported by tightening French availability. However, developments in Black Sea negotiations, Russian export competitiveness and Southern Hemisphere harvest progress will remain decisive. Wheat currently has the stronger underlying fundamentals, while corn requires fresh demand to sustain a recovery.

Malting Barley

Market Commentary 


Recent brewer activity has seen European prices rise in recent weeks, however now that demand has been covered prices have eased in the last few days.

 
The UK malting barley market continues to show no signs of direction with minimal trade activity being reported. 
A lack of clarity around intake specifications, combined with adequate on-farm storage capacity, has encouraged many growers to refrain from entering the market. 


The UK S&D would suggest that we will need to see imports from another EU country in order to balance the books, however a potential reduction in demand could solve this issue. But as yet this remains unconfirmed.  


Looking Ahead 


The key factor for the UK market remains the ability for the market to utilise the 2026 crop and given its poor quality it is understandable that maltsters are reluctant to rush into a decision. 

A rise in £/€ is helping to reduce import parities and should the trade agree to Danish supplies we could see domestic prices fall. 
For now, the market remains finely balanced, with the eventual outcome likely to become clearer as the season progresses. 

Feed Barley

• Feed barley values continue to face downward pressure, with demand remaining subdued and futures markets moving lower. 
  
  

• Barley retains an attractive discount to both wheat and maize, maintaining its competitiveness and providing an incentive for increased inclusion in animal feed rations. 
  
  

• Export activity remains limited, with overseas values still below domestic market levels. Vessels continue to move from Scottish ports into Ireland, but securing additional export business remains challenging at current price levels. 
  
  

In the short term, feed barley prices are likely to remain closely aligned with movements in the wheat market. However, its competitive position against other feed grains should help underpin demand over the longer term, potentially supporting an improvement in relative values.

Rapeseed

Overview 

Oilseed markets have found some support this week following a volatile start, with the USDA report providing a boost to soybean prices and helping lift the wider complex. Crude oil has remained headline-driven, with easing geopolitical concerns removing some of the recent risk premium. Canadian canola has also recovered, while MATIF rapeseed continues to find buying interest around key technical support levels, despite the broader downtrend remaining intact. 

  

Key factors 

  

• Soybeans have been one of the stronger performers this week, recovering sharply after testing support levels from August. The USDA report provided a bullish input for the market, despite an increase to US production as this was in line with expectations. Higher export forecasts, up 25 million bushels to 1.720 billion, helped reduce US ending stocks by 15 million bushels to 300 million. Global ending stocks were also revised lower by 0.8mmt to 123.5mmt. This triggered a 40-cent rally on Tuesday, recovering most of November’s losses so far. However, the wider technical picture remains bearish, with prices still pulling back towards the sharp downtrend formed over the last month. 
  
  

• Crude has seen significant pressure this week, falling $5.77 on Monday alone as markets continued to remove some of the geopolitical risk premium. Comments from Trump suggesting further strikes on Iran were unlikely while discussions continue have helped ease supply concerns. Middle Eastern crude premiums have also returned to pre-conflict levels, while Saudi Aramco reduced its December selling price to Asian consumers by $2/barrel. Despite improved supply conditions in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to leave energy markets sensitive to further headlines. 
  
  

• Canola has managed a recovery this week, closing $13 higher on Tuesday after finding some support from Japanese importers pricing ahead of the USDA report. Year-to-date export disposals have reached 2.2mmt, 55% above last year’s pace and 6% above the three-year average. West Coast stocks remain above average. We have also seen farmer selling increase as prices attempt to recover some recent losses, suggesting there is still plenty of nearby supply to work through. 
  
  

• MATIF rapeseed has showed some resilience despite pressure from falling crude oil prices. The €518 level has now been tested multiple times intraday and continues to provide strong technical support, with Friday’s recovery followed by another bounce from €519 on Monday. Tuesday’s session saw prices recover well following the USDA report, although the wider downtrend remains in place. First resistance now sits around €530-535, which will be an important level to overcome if we are to see a more meaningful recovery. Improving crush margins and increased UK consumer interest are also helping provide some underlying support, with buyers looking to take additional coverage at these levels. Overall the downtrend remains in play. 
  
  

  

Outlook 

Attention now turns to whether soybeans can maintain their recovery following the USDA report, with the next move likely to depend on export demand and wider market sentiment. Crude oil remains sensitive to developments in the Middle East, although easing concerns have reduced some of the recent premium. Canadian canola will continue to watch export demand and farmer selling, while MATIF rapeseed needs a sustained move above €530-535 to challenge the current downtrend. The €518 support remains key. 

Oats

General market liquidity in the UK remains relatively slow with limited volumes of oats reported to be trading. The lack of overall supply is the general cause of this. 


Scandinavian supplies are less available following a strong bought of selling, therefore import parities for oats into the UK have increased. This is partly negated by the rise in £/€, however high fuel prices and rising oat values have still seen a net increase in prices.  


Millers are trying to accommodate the poor quality UK crop and this is important as some customers have an inelastic demand for UK oats and therefore cannot be supplied with imported oats from the EU. 


Feed oats have seen greater interest in recent weeks and this has seen prices rise relative to wheat. This is partly due to the rise in fibre alternatives but also the high milling price is seeing more feeds being blended away. 


Looking Ahead 


The overall UK oat supply and demand position remains tight, high production losses combined with the poor yields will see further requirements on imports to balance the books. 


Looking towards harvest 2027, early indications suggest that oat plantings will decline again as wheat and OSR prove to offer greater gross margin returns. 


Further reductions in domestic production will strengthen the underlying supply issue and this could offer support to oat prices over the coming 12 months. 


Imports are currently the key, so all eyes should remain on import parities. 

Pulses

With little interest pre-Christmas and 27Q1 feeling like a lifetime away, there is very little engagement in the pulse market at the moment. A steady stream of pulses are making their way from farm, but there seems to be little fresh impetus. Limited feed demand is keeping the market ticking over, however the focus of the market still seems to be the prospects for CY27 seem to be at the fore with plenty of questions around drilling progress and planting intentions. 

Key Factors 

• Another quiet week for feed demand, with what little interest there is focussed around 27Q1. Beans maintain their generally uncompetitive levels compared to alternative raw materials, such as rapeseed meal and soymeal, across several feed formulations, leaving buyers reluctant to increase inclusion rates. Poultry remains the most active outlet, however there is a limit to how much they can take at the price, meaning pulses continue to be scrutinised from a financial point of view. 
  
  

• Winter bean drilling continues to progress well, with the extended good weather allowing for rapid progress to be made. The crop already in the ground continues to look well, helped by the good weather and generally excellent seedbed conditions. With getting beans established into a strong seedbed being half the battle to achieving a good crop, it is also worth considering marketing options for the coming crop. A range of alternatives are available through your farm trading representative, from pools and futures-linked contracts to outright cash deals, alongside associated seed and fertiliser packages. For now, however, attention should remain firmly on establishing the crop correctly, with seedbed preparation, soil indices and early nutrition all important considerations. The PGRO remains a useful source of guidance and technical information as the new crop gets underway. 
  
  

• Pea markets remain relatively quiet, with the micronising sector having settled following earlier activity easing and limited fresh demand emerging. Feed demand continues to provide some support, although competition from European origins remains a challenge, with demand remaining relatively firm and providing an outlet for available tonnage. 
  
  

• European markets remain highly competitive, with competitively priced supplies continuing to put pressure on UK values and limiting opportunities for new business. 
  
  

  

Outlook 

Pulse markets are likely to remain subdued into the Christmas period, with limited feed demand and competitive European supplies continuing to cap UK values. Attention will increasingly turn towards CY27, with winter crop establishment, spring planting intentions and prospective acreage shaping the outlook. Good drilling progress is encouraging, although improved demand will be needed to support a more positive market outlook.

 

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields. 

Seed

Focus is beginning to shift towards spring cropping. With yield challenges reported across both the UK and Europe this season, availability is expected to be tight on several key spring commodities, prompting earlier‑than‑usual planning and ordering. 



Key Factors: 

• Maize Seed – Maize continues to attract early interest. Lower yields across parts of Europe have reduced overall production, directly tightening seed supply for spring drilling. Those who cannot access maize will no doubt be looking at alternative commodities including other high energy and dry matter options. 
  
  

• Spring Cereal Seed – Laureate remains the backbone of the spring barley market, supported by its strong performance and broad acceptance. A notable new entrant to spring wheat this season is STR Pace – a sprinter wheat bred from both winter and spring parentage. With no vernalisation requirement, it offers genuine drilling flexibility, performing whether sown in winter or spring. For spring oats, Merlin is our top choice as a high yielding, early maturing variety with low screenings and solid specific weight. 
  
  

• Spring Pulse Seed –We are pleased to offer: 
  
  

Butterfly and Daytona – large blue peas 

Kabuki and Adder – marrowfat peas 

These options provide strong market alignment and dependable performance. 

• Autumn Cereal Seed – Stocks remain across a broad spread of leading varieties. There are some brilliant options of good later drilled varieties available including Skyfall, LG Beowulf and Arlington. 
  
  

• Autumn Pulse Seed – Vespa remains the leading winter bean choice, offering high yield potential and consistent results on the Descriptive List. Whether growers are after a top up or require seed for a new order, we are pleased to be able to offer. 
  
  

Outlook 

As autumn progresses, attention will begin shifting towards spring cropping plans. Growers who still need to finalise autumn requirements, or who anticipate top‑ups, are encouraged to speak with their farm trader promptly to secure suitable options. For those already turning their focus to spring, early ordering is advisable given tightening availability in several key categories. 

Fertiliser

Overall Nitrogen values have continued to soften this week. Buyers remain on the sidelines, and the market is still without an Indian tender. Sentiment was further weighed on by Trump’s comments that further strikes on Iran were unlikely should peace talks progress. TTF front-month has held broadly steady in the mid-€80s/MWh, in line with last week’s levels. 

However, softer prices should not be read as a sign of cheap nitrogen availability. At current gas levels, European production remains uneconomical, and we see little prospect of curtailed capacity coming back online. Grupa Azoty’s significant Q3 loss in its fertiliser division shows this clearly, as producers were unable to fully pass elevated gas costs on to the farmgate. 

Urea Egyptian granular has corrected to $510–520/t FOB for European delivery, down from $530–540/t last week, despite reduced output. Gas curtailments have now cut Egyptian production capacity by around a third, with no clear timeline for recovery. As one of the UK’s key import origins, Egypt should keep replacement costs supported for the foreseeable future. Middle East granular was assessed at $425–435/t FOB, while Nigerian was broadly unchanged at $460–473/t FOB. 

Around 300,000t of urea remains held behind the Strait of Hormuz, with only one transit recorded since last Thursday. 

The market continues to look to India for direction. The post-Diwali IPL tender has yet to materialise, and prices are unlikely to see any meaningful correction until it does. 

Nitrates European nitrate markets remain subdued, with limited purchasing interest across the continent. UK granular AN is currently trading around £500/t for November delivery, with replacement costs continuing to reflect constrained European output. 

Outlook Overall, we view nitrogen values as steady-to-firm. The complex should remain underpinned over the coming weeks by continued uncertainty, the risk of shipping delays and tight delivery capacity. Two catalysts stand out: progress in Middle East peace talks and the timing of the Indian tender. Either could bring renewed volatility.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1957	1.3225	1.1058

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
	174-184	181-191	225-235	450-460