Market Reports

Wheat

Wheat markets rallied sharply during the week, driven largely by escalating Middle East tensions that propelled crude oil higher and injected a geopolitical risk premium into grain markets. Chicago, Kansas and MATIF futures all reached multi-month highs before turning volatile as energy prices fluctuated. Currency moves, weather developments and ample global supplies tempered the rally.

Key Factors:

• The escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel and regional allies pushed crude oil briefly towards $120/barrel as the geopolitical risk premium continued to increase, lifting wheat alongside broader commodity markets. Wheat, traditionally sensitive to geopolitical instability due to heavy import dependence in the Middle East and North Africa, attracted speculative and fund buying.
• Most commodity futures put in a strong performance over the week, with Chicago wheat surging to nine-month highs, gaining sharply across several sessions, while Kansas wheat outperformed due to drought concerns in the U.S. Plains. MATIF futures climbed to their highest level in around seven months, at one point reaching above €210/mt, before retreating as energy markets cooled.
• Surging oil and fuel prices supported agricultural markets through inflationary pressure and biofuel demand expectations. However, subsequent easing in crude prices and uncertainty around global inflation introduced volatility, producing large intraday price swings across wheat and corn markets.
• Despite rising futures, European sentiment remains cautious. Large old-crop stocks and the widening May–September carry indicates comfortable supplies. Buyers remain hesitant amid volatility, while rising prices may encourage farmer selling and continued circulation of distressed Black Sea cargoes.
• Weather developments remain mixed globally. Rains are slowing Brazil’s harvest but, improving Argentine prospects, while U.S. drought conditions may ease with incoming rainfall. Global wheat supply remains broadly adequate, limiting sustained upside despite geopolitical risk.
  
  

Outlook
Wheat markets are likely to remain highly volatile in the near term as traders balance geopolitical risk, energy price movements and macroeconomic pressures against comfortable global supply. Currency shifts and fund positioning will remain key drivers, while attention will likely remain focussed on ongoing Middle East developments for direction.

Malting Barley

Trade activity in malting barley continues to be very lack luster with the majority of buyers not willing to chase the wheat markets higher. Good carryover stocks and a lack of adverse fundamental issues is allowing them to feel comfortable and more focussed on demand rather than a lack of supply. In contrast feed barley prices continue to rally and this is eroding malting premiums. After a week of dry weather here in there UK storm Eowyn is bringing strong winds and additional rainfall which could undo some of the net drying of wet soils. It is still too early to be overly concerned about a negative production event, however risk remains whilst the crop is still growing.

Key Factors

• Strong feed barley demand continues to see malting barley surpluses make their way into the feed heap.
• Long holders of barley could see an uplift if there is an issue with new crop, however this could be a risky plan.
• Aug-Dec’26 positions could see limited demand and this could impact growers needing to sell due to poor storage. Many would do well to be prepared to sell for Jan-Mar’27 positions instead.
  
  

Outlook
Near-term price increases will largely be dominated by feed price increases rather than malting. Over the medium to longer term, however, new crop production risks remain therefore all eyes should remain focused on the weather in the key EU growing regions.

Feed Barley

Feed barley prices are slightly firmer week on week, although on thin volumes as the market digests volatility in global energy and FX markets. Weather conditions are improving which brings the prospect of spring drilling after months of rain.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley markets are slightly firmer on the week, although prices have managed to shrug off the continued macro volatility caused by the ongoing conflict in Iran.
• Freight markets remain extremely firm, meanwhile GBP:EUR has climbed back to early Feb highs, which is hampering export trade in the short term. However, there is still demand over the next few months to Ireland and the UK currently looks like the most competitive origin.
• TMO (Turkey) announced a tender for 175Kmt Mar/Apr shipment, which is expected to clear out most of the remaining stocks available in the Black Sea. It is not expected that N. EU origins will feature.
• Domestic markets have slowed, and consumers are sitting out of the market for now. Although we do see continued consumer activity on new crop positions where barley continues to trade at a discount to wheat of approx. £10-15/mt, and consumers look to hedge off the risk of further escalation in the Middle East.
• Conditions are improving and we are seeing farmers get onto the land at last, if the weather remains favourable we should progress well with spring drilling over the coming weeks.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop markets feel well supported in the short term on a fairly tight balance sheet, despite freight challenges and a firming FX rate. New crop will continue to follow the wheat market, which will take it’s lead from the developing situation in Iran.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets traded through an increasingly volatile but broadly supported week, with macro headlines dominating price direction. Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz injected a significant risk premium into crude oil, spilling directly into vegetable oils and biofuel-linked markets. While early strength pushed markets toward recent highs, bouts of profit-taking and outside market pressure triggered sharp intraday reversals. Currency moves, particularly EUR/USD weakness, and fluctuating crush margins also played key roles in shaping rapeseed and canola price action.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybean futures experienced a choppy week, initially riding the broader commodity rally before struggling to sustain upside momentum. Early strength was driven largely by spillover support from surging crude oil and the associated rally in soyoil, though the market repeatedly failed to hold intraday highs. Fundamentally, US export competitiveness continues to face pressure from cheaper South American supplies. Though at the same time, the Brazilian harvest pace remains slower than normal, with AgRural estimating completion around 51%, compared to last year’s 61%, which has limited aggressive selling from origin. The latest USDA WASDE report delivered few surprises, showing slightly higher US soybean imports offset by increased crush demand thanks to strong processing margins. This kept the balance sheet broadly neutral, leaving funds to focus on macro drivers. Technically, soybeans continue to trade within a trend, with rallies encountering overhead resistance while downside moves are finding support from firm meal demand and underlying veg-oil strength tied to the energy complex.
• Crude oil was the primary driver of volatility across the oilseed complex this week. Prices surged sharply following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, with spot Brent briefly touching near $120/barrel before retreating into a wide trading range. Logistical disruptions and concerns over the ability of Gulf producers to move stored supplies forced a large geopolitical risk premium into the market. At the same time, conflicting headlines added to volatility. Trump’s comments that the conflict will be over sooner than expected did remove some risk premium despite comments of increased severity of attacks. Policymakers have also stepped in, with the IEA confirming that member countries plan to release around 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, while G7 ministers discussed coordinated action. Although this release should ease short-term supply concerns, the scale of intervention highlights the severity of disruption to global oil flows. As a result, energy markets remain highly headline-driven, and this volatility continues to transmit directly into vegetable oils and oilseed crush economics.
• Canola futures broadly followed the direction of vegetable oil and energy markets, though the contract also encountered periods of technical resistance. Prices initially pushed higher alongside crude oil before struggling near levels last seen in June, triggering rounds of technical selling as overhead resistance held firm. Strong domestic crush margins remain the key supportive fundamental factor in Canada, keeping processor demand elevated despite the presence of relatively comfortable stocks. However, the recent pullback in soyoil temporarily removed some headroom from board crush margins, slowing the bullish momentum. On the downside, a dip in on-farm prices below CAD 16.50/bushel attracted farmer selling and hedge pressure, contributing to the correction before reverting to higher trade. The underlying demand from the biofuel and crush sector continues to provide structural support whenever the market retraces.
• MATIF rapeseed futures mirrored the volatility seen across the wider oilseed complex. Prices initially strengthened alongside the surge in crude oil before encountering a sharp technical rejection of highs, producing a notable reversal pattern mid-week. Pressure came from weaker vegetable oil markets at the time as well as a temporary rebound in the EUR/USD, which reduced export competitiveness for European rapeseed. However, the market later recovered strongly as crude oil rallied again and the euro resumed its downward trend against the US dollar, providing additional support to EU prices. From a technical perspective, rapeseed continues to trade within an accelerated uptrend, though key resistance levels remain in focus. For the May contract, the market needs to convincingly clear the €524 area, while the August contract faces resistance near €508 in order to keep the sharper trend going.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain heavily influenced by geopolitical headlines surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East tensions. Crude oil will continue to be the key driver for vegetable oils and therefore oilseed crush margins. Currency movements and South American harvest progress will also shape sentiment. While the broader trend remains supportive, particularly if energy markets stay elevated, volatility is likely to remain high with technical resistance levels still needing to be cleared before a sustained rally can develop.

Oats

Trade of oats continues to be very limited with UK consumers reportedly covered on old crop until Jun/Jul’26. Low prices remain a sticking point for long holders who would rather hold than sell at a loss. The low prices could also see a greater on farm feed usage figure and this may result in a smaller surplus than the market had previously estimated. New crop has seen limited trades as farmer selling has been held off until either prices rise or crops are well established.

Key Factors

• Export interest has been put on hold momentarily due to the impact of high freight rates due to the Iran war, however with some consumers still needing to fill gaps it is likely that the wheat price rally could trigger some panic buying.
• Feed oats are now at such a low level in the UK that compound feed millers are looking to use as much as they can, which should support milling prices.
• Fresh wet weather as a result of the recent storm, combined with the rally in fertiliser prices, could see some growers hold off from planting crops that are not in the ground.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, it is difficult to see oat prices rallying strongly due to the general sentiment of wide availability here in the UK but a strong pick up in feed usage could change that. In the medium to long term planting areas have reduced significantly in the majority of the worlds key producing areas which could lead to a rally in prices if there are any production issues.

Pulses

Another week of continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been the main driving factor in commodity markets around the world, with fears that it could escalate further in to a wider regional conflict as Iran continues to attack its neighbours in the Gulf, including reports of various vessels being attacked with ‘unknown projectiles’ in the Strait of Hormuz, including the Thai flagged MAYUREE NAREE bulk carrier 11nm north of the Omani coast and 2 tankers near the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr. However, pulses have again remained remarkably stoic, with little change to values over the last week.

Key Factors:

• As we often open with at this stage of the report, there has been little change to old crop values, with beans maintaining a low level of competitiveness against other feedstuffs in the ration – holding on to a relative value of c. £10–15/mt above workable inclusion levels on the nearby, whilst further forward they are c. £30–35/mt premium to alternative proteins such as rapeseed meal and soybean meal, with little signs of this changing any time soon. However, arguably this continued malaise of a price action is correct, as where bean stocks are not plentiful this season, the price is rationing demand primarily in to the mainstay consumer of the poultry sector, and not much else.
• We continue to see favourable weather patterns across the UK and the Spring Drilling campaign romping away, especially on lighter land, and the heavier not much further behind as the increased amounts of daylight, warming temperatures and steady wind help dry it out. Spring beans are the unsung hero of the spring cropping options, offering a great alternative in the rotation, helping improve soil structure whilst sequestering nitrogen for following cereal crops, and when partnered with the appropriate agronomy and input schedule can return a strong yield and subsequent gross margin. For those planning on drilling beans but stuck on the marketing options, our marketing Pool remains open for additional bean contracts — a useful route to manage exposure in what is often an illiquid and difficult-to-read market.
• The pea market remains relatively quiet, with overall sentiment continuing to track closely alongside developments in the bean sector. Demand in the UK is still muted, while attractively priced Canadian peas continue to find their way into the wider European market. Much of the trade’s attention is still centred on the relationship between Canada and China. Shipments of Canadian yellow peas were noted ahead of the Lunar New Year period, and the weeks ahead should offer a clearer indication of whether Chinese buyers resume more typical purchasing patterns through their usual supply channels.
• Within the UK, buying activity remains limited as the market gradually works through existing inventories before new demand is likely to emerge. Pea buyback programmes have now come to an end, though some growers are still weighing up their marketing strategies for the new crop. For those exploring alternative spring cropping options, contracts for spring linseed continue to be offered.
  
  

Outlook
Despite escalating Middle East tensions, pulse markets have remained largely stable. Bean values continue to sit broadly above competitive feed levels, limiting demand mainly to the poultry sector. UK spring drilling is progressing well, with beans remaining an attractive rotational option. Pea markets remain subdued amid strong Canadian supply and uncertain Chinese demand, though clearer trade flows and fresh buying interest may emerge as the season develops.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As the spring drilling season gathers pace, it’s a good time for growers to review seed availability and consider opportunities for the months ahead.

Key Factors:

• For those needing spring seed at short notice, we currently have a small amount of stock available for immediate dispatch. This includes varieties such as Laureate, Lynx, along with a limited selection of other spring options.
• With maize drilling just around the corner, supply for some of the most popular varieties is beginning to tighten. Despite this, overall supply across the portfolio remains in a good position. Full details of the varieties we offer can be found in our maize catalogue.
• If you’re planning spring sowings of grass leys, environmental or stewardship mixtures, fodder beet, or other small seeds, now is a good time to discuss requirements and availability so we can help secure the right options.
• Looking ahead to autumn cropping, several exciting new wheat varieties are available, including LG Defiance, LG Challenger, Sparkler, KWS Aintree and KWS Fowlmere. Each offers different strengths to help suit a range of farm requirements and growing conditions.
• There are also some interesting new oilseed rape varieties emerging, including Karat from NPZ. Karat is an exciting addition to the AHDB Recommended List, featuring joint highest gross output in the East/West region, high oil content and the new Rlm12 resistance to Stem Canker.
  
  

Outlook
With strong options available for both this spring and the coming autumn, early planning and timely decisions will help ensure the best fit for your rotation and help maximise crop performance. For growers considering oilseed rape in their rotation, new varieties and improved traits are continuing to strengthen the crop’s potential as a profitable and resilient break crop.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

Middle East conflict drives sharp rally as LNG supply disruptions tighten global balances. 

Key Factors: 

• European natural gas futures surged back above €50/MWh on Wednesday, rising more than 60% since the start of March as escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens global LNG supply. 
• Qatar Energy halted operations at its LNG facilities following attacks linked to the conflict, removing supply from a producer responsible for roughly 20% of global LNG exports. 
• The closure of the Strait has intensified competition for alternative LNG supplies, particularly US cargoes, which have become central to Europe’s strategy to replace Russian gas. 
• European storage levels remain tight at around 29.4% of capacity, roughly 20 percentage points below the same period last year, leaving the region more exposed to supply shocks. 
• US natural gas prices have remained comparatively stable around $3/MMBtu as strong domestic production and high storage levels continue to cushion the market. 
  
  

Outlook
Gas markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Continued disruption to LNG supply routes through the Persian Gulf could sustain elevated European prices and tighten global balances. However, the US market remains relatively insulated due to strong domestic production and infrastructure limits on export capacity, keeping Henry Hub significantly below international benchmarks for now. 

Global ammonia outlook turns sharply bullish as Strait of Hormuz disruption removes a major share of seaborne supply. 

Key Factors: 

• Global ammonia markets have shifted abruptly higher after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted maritime transit for roughly 27% of seaborne ammonia trade. 
• The outlook changed rapidly after the March Tampa contract settled at $615/t CFR on 27 February, with the Middle East conflict erupting immediately afterward and halting price discovery for Gulf cargoes. 
• Middle East FOB prices are now expected to approach $600/t in March, around $144/t above February averages, with values likely to remain elevated into April near $590/t before gradually declining in later years. 
• Northwest Europe is also facing rapidly tightening conditions. Algerian offers have already risen above $650/t FOB and a reported sale around $750/t CFR NWE has been heard. Regional prices could reach $800/t CFR during March. 
  
  

Outlook
The ammonia market has entered a period of acute supply tightness driven by geopolitical disruption and limited spare global capacity. With roughly a quarter of global seaborne trade effectively immobilised and European production under pressure from higher gas costs, price risk remains firmly skewed to the upside. If production outages begin to emerge in either the Middle East or Europe, the market could tighten further even if maritime traffic through the Strait eventually resumes. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Nitrates rally ends prolonged flat period as energy costs and urea surge tighten supply. 

Key Factors: 

• Nitrate markets have turned sharply firmer after several weeks of subdued activity as rising gas costs and the global urea rally triggered by Middle East tensions begin to feed into nitrogen pricing. 
• European producers including Yara and LAT Nitrogen withdrew offers amid the escalation in the Middle East, leaving the market temporarily without clear price signals while producers reassess margins. 
• Europe entered the spring season with relatively low available supply following earlier inventory drawdowns and delayed applications caused by poor weather. 
• In the US, CF Industries has implemented multiple price increases as spring demand accelerates and nitrogen prices track the global urea rally. 
• CAN prices in Europe are also supported by rising carbon compliance costs as EU ETS free allowances continue to be phased out, increasing production costs for nitrate producers. 
• Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian nitrogen infrastructure have further constrained export availability, contributing to higher Baltic AN prices currently estimated around $410/t FOB. 
  
  

Outlook
The nitrates market has shifted from a flat to a tightening structure as higher energy costs, rising ammonia and urea benchmarks and constrained supply begin to push prices upward. European and US markets are expected to remain firm through the peak spring application window, with the key upside risks linked to further geopolitical escalation, gas price volatility and potential disruptions to Russian nitrogen supply. 

Urea

Hormuz effective closure continues, stopping major export flows, sending global urea prices sharply higher. 

Key Factors: 

• Global urea prices are expected to continue rises following the US led intervention in Iran and the subsequent regional conflict which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. 
• The disruption has removed an estimated 30% of global urea exports from the market, creating an immediate supply shock at the same time as peak seasonal demand in the northern hemisphere. 
• The closure is also expected to disrupt LNG flows from Qatar, which will impact domestic urea production in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, all of which rely heavily on LNG passing through the strait. 
• The timing coincides with the peak spring application window in both the US and Europe. European buyers are already relying heavily on North African supply from Egypt and Algeria after avoiding Russian material. 
• Additional demand remains in Europe, with France alone reportedly requiring around 150,000 tonnes for April May delivery. 
• India remains particularly exposed to the disruption. The country recently concluded a tender for 1.5 Mt and secured roughly 1.3 Mt, but around 500,000 tonnes of this volume is expected from the Middle East and may now face shipment delays or force majeure declarations. 
• India’s domestic urea production is also vulnerable due to LNG supply disruptions, raising the risk of declining domestic inventories and forcing the country to return aggressively to the import market later this year. 
• China is unlikely to return to the export market before May and may delay exports further if domestic coal prices rise, limiting the availability of additional supply in the short term. 
• Demand from other import regions including Australia, Thailand and the Philippines is expected to increase as their seasonal buying windows open, further tightening global balances. 
  
  

Outlook
Urea markets are expected to remain extremely tight in the near term as a large portion of global export capacity remains effectively locked behind the Strait of Hormuz. Prices are likely to remain elevated through the spring demand season before correcting later in the year. A more meaningful easing in the market is expected during the second half of the year as Chinese exports return, additional Southeast Asian and Russian supply becomes available and Nigeria’s Indorama third production line begins contributing new volumes. 

Phosphates

Supply scarcity and Middle East disruption push phosphate markets toward a sharp price spike. 

Key Factors: 

• Global phosphate prices were already expected to exceed last year’s highs due to exceptionally tight availability, and the Middle East conflict is now amplifying that bullish outlook. 
• The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is restricting exports from Saudi Arabia, which accounts for roughly one fifth of globally traded DAP and MAP supply and ships all volumes through the strait. 
• The conflict is also pushing up prices for key feedstocks including sulphur and ammonia, significantly raising conversion costs for phosphate producers. 
• China’s export restrictions continue to tighten global supply. Beijing has halted DAP, MAP and NP exports until at least August 2026, severely limiting global P₂O₅ availability. 
• Even when Chinese exports resume later in the year, volumes are expected to be extremely limited at roughly 1 Mt compared with 5.4 Mt exported last year, which was already a twelve year low. 
• Rising fertiliser prices combined with relatively weaker crop prices are likely to worsen affordability and trigger some demand destruction across key agricultural markets. 
  
  

Outlook
Phosphate markets are entering a period of significant structural tightness driven by restricted Chinese exports, rising raw material costs and geopolitical disruption to Middle Eastern supply. Prices are expected to move higher in the near term, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. However, worsening affordability across key agricultural markets may increasingly limit demand and prevent prices from rising indefinitely. 

Potash

MOP markets expected to remain broadly stable despite rising geopolitical risk.

 

Key Factors: 

• Potash prices are forecast to remain relatively stable in the near term even as nitrogen and phosphate markets surge due to the Middle East conflict. 
• Rising prices for nitrogen and phosphates are beginning to squeeze farmer budgets, creating downside risk for potash demand as growers often reduce or delay potash applications first when fertiliser costs spike. 
• Geopolitical tensions have had limited direct impact on potash trade flows. Unlike nitrogen products, potash exports are less reliant on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. 
• Northwest European markets remain relatively quiet due to winter logistics issues and limited seasonal demand. Some suppliers expect modest price increases during the spring application period in the second quarter. 
  
  

Outlook
Potash markets remain fundamentally better supplied than nitrogen and phosphate markets, limiting immediate price volatility despite geopolitical disruption elsewhere in the fertiliser complex. Prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term, supported by Brazilian demand and strong palm oil economics in Southeast Asia. However, continued increases in nitrogen and phosphate prices could begin to suppress potash demand later in the season as farmers prioritise spending on more immediately yield critical nutrients. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1586	1.3410	1.1574

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Mar26	145-155	164-174	195-205	445-455