Market reports

Wheat

Global grain markets are wrestling with record supply prospects, aggressive Black Sea exports, and uncertain US yield outcomes. While technicals and seasonal trends lend some near-term support, heavy corn and wheat balances, firm competition, and currency dynamics are keeping rallies capped despite bouts of strength in Chicago.

Key Factors:

• The USDA’s September WASDE lifted US corn acreage, offsetting lower yields. Wheat output rose globally to 816.2mmt, with larger Russian, Australian, and EU crops. Overall, abundant supplies and strong Black Sea competition continue to cap market upside.
• The USDA lifted acreage to record levels, keeping 2025/26 output heavy near 16.8bn bu, though yield downgrades toward ~182–186 bpa are increasingly expected. Exports remain firm, but burdensome stocks, weak ethanol use, and HFCS demand erosion weigh on balance sheets.
• Soybean prices drew strength from US-China trade chatter, biofuel demand speculation, and yield-cut hopes. But with China increasingly sourcing from Brazil and Argentina, US export risks persist, limiting follow-through despite recent rallies tied to soy oil gains.
• Black Sea exporters, led by Russia, continue to dominate the wheat market with low FOB offers. The USDA raised world output to record levels, and carryover stocks remain heavy in Canada, France, and the EU. While US exports are above the five-year average, global competition caps upside momentum.
• Closer to home, the EU wheat output has been revised higher, with France’s crop at 33.3mmt, while corn estimates slipped on drought. Rapeseed gained from Ukrainian export tax news, but overall wheat and corn remain pressured by Black Sea supplies. UK markets see limited farmer engagement amid low volatility and weather-driven planting.
• Elsewhere, The Fed rate cuts, USD fluctuations, and Brazil’s strong real influence trade competitiveness. Seasonal tendencies suggest harvest lows may be forming into late September, but macro drivers offer only mild relief against heavy supply fundamentals.
  
  

Outlook
With record or near-record harvests across the US, South America, and Black Sea, global grain markets face a supply-heavy backdrop. Seasonal support may underpin prices into late September, but sustained rallies will hinge on deeper US yield cuts or fresh demand catalysts, as aggressive Russian exports continue to define trade flows.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets remain slow with weak demand and ongoing quality downgrades, while export prices are heavily depressed by a European surplus. Although new crop values hold a healthy premium, poor farm margins are expected to reduce the barley planted area.

Key Factors:

• For yet another week, malting barley markets are slow. The ever-looming lack of demand continues to undermine prices, despite a continuation of quality downgrades from this year’s harvest.
• Export markets are extremely depressed due to a large surplus in Europe. FOB levels and are valued much lower than domestic malting barley prices, and even feed barley in the South West where feed prices are strong. As a result, malting barley exports do not calculate.
• Notional new crop values are a healthy premium to old crop levels, which at least is required to buy acres. Even so, we are expecting a drop in barley area due to unfavourable gross margins on the farm.
  
  

Outlook
Malting barley markets show little sign of life and, in the short term at least, continue to look heavy with bids lacking. We wouldn’t be surprised to see some support later into the season, once some demand eventually returns, given the lower availability this year, and the carry on paper to new crop.

Feed Barley

Farmer selling has increased, easing liquidity but volumes remain low, keeping feed barley markets wide. Northern markets face pressure from ample supply and Scottish surplus, with limited export support before the New Year.

Key Factors:

• Farmer selling has picked up over the last week which has provided some much needed liquidity to the market, although still falls far short of ‘normal’ volumes and feed barley markets remain wide as a result.
• Feed barley remains well priced relative to other grain and fibre products which should support demand over the winter, in an already supported feed market. However, Northern markets continue to come under pressure, with supply still looking comfortable and a healthy premium trading over the non-existent export market. Malting downgrades continue to fall into the feed heap.
• Meanwhile we continue to see pressure from the Scottish surplus pushing into Northern England.
• Export business is discussed for the New Year to Ireland, which for now only calculates ex Scotland, however coverage remains high pre-Christmas and as a result there is little chance of nearby exports providing support.
  
  

Outlook
Provided the recent downtrend in wider grains markets continues, we would expect to see feed barley prices continuing to move sideways to lower in the coming weeks.

Rapeseed

Markets have been choppy this week, swinging between optimism on US-China trade talks and pressure from macroeconomic moves. Soybeans remain at the mercy of US–China politics and shifting USDA numbers, while crude oil continues to trade headlines from Ukraine–Russia tensions and OPEC supply concerns. Canola is starting to feel the weight of harvest pressure and weak exports, also spec money remains active. MATIF rapeseed has attempted to move higher, though come into trouble at the 50 day moving average, with €470 is trying to act as a key technical pivot. UK farm selling has been steadily emerging around £400 ex.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans traded in a wide range, with support from strong non Chinese demand and a weaker dollar midweek, but losses late on as the Fed’s rate cut briefly boosted the dollar and EPA biofuel policy disappointed the market. The EPA have announced that they will be seeking public advice on how much of their recent exemptions should be placed onto larger refineries. Weekly export inspections were robust, nearly double the previous week, highlighting demand outside China. The trade now waits for Friday’s Trump–Xi talks, with hopes from the trade that soybeans will be a topic of conversation. The technical picture remains mixed, with rallies struggling to hold above short-term resistance.
• Crude oil price action has been headline-driven, with Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining capacity giving intermittent support. However, the failure to hold above the 200-day moving average and the formation of a ‘dark cloud cover’ candlestick pattern now suggest a possible reversal to the downside. Traders note congestion just below current levels that must be broken to confirm reversal. For now, the market is rangebound, and sentiment is fragile as demand signals are weighed against geopolitical risks.
• Canola has been volatile, gaining on fund buying early in the week as commercial positions flipped net long for the first time in months, but falling back heavily under pressure from soyoil weakness and a bearish macro backdrop. Rain across Prairie regions has delayed harvest, but large supply expectations and sluggish exports are capping any rallies. Basis levels remain weak, meaning flat prices offer little incentive for growers to sell beyond the minimum required. Speculative flows continue to dominate direction.
• MATIF rapeseed has been trading tightly around €470, with rallies capped by the 50-day moving average and dips finding support at the same level. Sympathy with soy and veg oil markets has kept price action lively, though technical momentum remains tilted to the downside. UK farm selling has been slowly coming forward at £400 ex for spot movement, with £410 ex still a target for many. The inability to take out previous highs points to consolidation rather than breakout for now.
  
  

Outlook
Soybeans remain headline-driven, with Friday’s Trump–Xi talks likely to dictate next week’s tone. Crude oil must clear resistance to break higher, but the risk of further Russian infrastructure hits keeps volatility elevated. Canola looks heavy under harvest pressure and weak demand, leaving funds in control of direction. MATIF rapeseed is consolidating, with €470 trying to act as support, any break of technical levels could set the next trend, but for now range-trading is expected with trouble to sustain any upside.

Oats

Scandinavian oat harvest closes in on completion, with quality results still to be determined.

Key Factors:

• Some heavy rainfall was received in Sweden and Finland over the last week, and this has delayed some crops in Finland from being harvest, however the vast majority is already safely in the barn.
• Quality in Sweden is reported to be good and production in Finland is anticipated to be in line with last year’s crop of 1.2Mmt.
• Demand for milling oats in Europe appears to be quiet with a number of buyers reporting to be well covered through now until Q1 of 2026.
• Feed oat prices continue to fall week on week with the weight of sellers in nearby positions fighting for limited demand. 
• Some trades of feed oats have been reported into Spain over the last week, but this is likely to be old crop oats from Scandinavia which has high specific weights.
• Here in the UK milling demand continues to be slow with most buyers reluctant to be aggressive in taking advantage of the very low prices.
• Farmer selling is exceptionally poor and with high demand for fibre in the livestock sector it is expected that milling oat prices will be supported to avoid losing supply to the feed sector.
• Low prices are also starting to take their toll on new crop with growers considering other crops which may show better returns than oats.
  
  

Outlook
Quality uncertainty of the EU crop continues to add an element of support to the milling market, however it is the appetite of farmer selling that will determine whether prices continue to fall or not.

Pulses

A steady week for pulses, with little change as they remain uncompetitive, away from more niche sectors. Human Consumption markets are muted, with the recent firming of GBP making the UK less attractive as an origin, with the spectre of a large Australian crop looming large over prices post Christmas.

Key Factors:

• The large Aussie new crop forecasts continue to weigh on the market, with buyer’s very much spoilt for choice both domestically and on the export front, with little urgency to cover against a plethora of alternatives, both bean and non-bean, regardless of whether we’re looking at HC or feed markets.
• Domestic demand remains sluggish, with UK prices holding stubbornly flat and offering little incentive for buyers. Cheaper NGFI feedstuffs, both homegrown and imported, continue to dominate rations. Beans still need to discount by roughly £30/t to compete effectively and draw interest beyond their core poultry sector outlets.
• The pea market has shown little movement over the past week, as buyers maintain conservative in their short-term procurement strategy.
• Feed prices seem to have stabilised week-on-week the abundant stockpiles in Canada still remains a concern given the little selling opportunities in the global market.
• In contrast, there has been strong demand for next year’s buyback contracts, owing to the gross margin opportunities available. Globally everyone will be looking to see Canadian planting intentions next season and what that may mean for global production.
  
  

Outlook
The prospect of a large Australian crop continues to weigh on export markets, with the firming GBP compounding this sentiment further. With cheap alternative feedstuffs in the feed sector, beans have plenty of work to do to find their place.


PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

The OSR drilling window is now starting to draw to a close – although mild temperatures look set to remain in place in many regions through September – we may see a limited addition to the OSR planted area – and for anybody looking for hybrid seed – we still have limited stocks available for immediate collection or next day delivery.

As we now move into the start of the main drilling window for autumn cereals – we are well placed to help with the selection and delivery of the right variety and seed treatment for your individual situation.  

With the 2025 AHDB winter wheat harvest results rolling in, it’s time to review how key varieties have performed across the groups so far. This year’s data provides a clear snapshot of yield outcomes amid changing disease pressures—particularly yellow rust—helping growers make more informed seed and management decisions for the coming season.

A Selection of Key Winter Wheat Varieties:

• Skyfall : A mainstay of the group 1 market – with a wide sowing window giving added flexibility
• SY Cheer : New in 2024 – SY Cheer has performed well in 2025 trials – and is a strong partner to the new variety KWS Vibe or alongside those well known farm favourites including Skyfall and Crusoe.

• LG Beowulf: Known for its strong disease resistance and high yield potential, making it a dependable and flexible choice for winter wheat.
• KWS Dawsum: Offers excellent standing ability, high specific weight and strong agronomics.
• Bamford: A variety with good disease resistance and grain quality, ideal for various soil types and the perfect choice of Group 3.
• KWS Solitaire: NEW for 2025 – this variety has had a very good year in trial – and offers very high yield potential – Group 3 market premiums and the addition of midge resistance to go alongside Bamford.
• Champion: Recognised for its high yield and brilliant Septoria resistance, making it a robust choice on farm.
  
  

Over yeared Stocks

• We still have some over yeared seed stocks available at a discounted price, including Buccaneer winter barley. Buccaneer is known for its strong straw, good yield, and suitability for a range of growing conditions, making it a reliable option.
  
  

Winter Beans

• Production will soon commence on winter beans as we move closer to October – varieties including Vespa and Vincent are available in limited quantities.

Outlook
Securing high-quality seed is essential to maximize potential yields and crop health for harvest 2026. Our diverse range of top-performing varieties and flexible seed options ensure growers can find the right fit for their specific needs.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas 

EU prices ease on strong supply; US futures climb on output dips but capped by weak demand. 

Key Factors: 

• European futures slipped toward €32/MWh, pressured by abundant LNG inflows and mild, windy weather cutting demand. 
• EU storage stands at 80.4% (vs 93.2% last year), with Germany 75.1%, France 89.9%, and Italy 90.1%. 
• US futures rose to $3/MMBtu, a one-week high, as Lower 48 output dipped to 107.4 bcfd in September, with a 3-month low of 105.1 bcfd expected. 
  
  

Outlook 
EU gas remains well supplied and likely rangebound, though geopolitical risks offer upside. US prices face resistance, with muted demand and ample inventories offsetting support from lower output. 

Ammonia 

Prices remain supported as supply constraints persist. 

Key Factors: 

• Ammonia prices held firm, with little downside expected into 2^nd half September. 
• Tightness west of Suez continues, with limited availability from North Africa and ongoing curtailments in the US Gulf. 
• East of Suez, balances remain steadier, but global constraints are preventing any meaningful easing in supply. 
  
  

Outlook 
Prices are likely to stay supported through September, with real relief not expected until Q4 when additional capacity and improved operating rates may emerge. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Benchmarks extend downtrend, but European producers resist. 

Key Factors: 

• Global nitrate and sulphate prices continued to soften, following weaker urea values and muted buyer engagement. 
• European producers are attempting to resist downward pressure, holding or even pushing offers higher despite limited demand. 
• In Brazil, sulphates remain weighed down by oversupply from China and logistical bottlenecks, curbing any price recovery. 
  
  

Outlook 
The broader trend remains soft in line with urea, but regional producer discipline in Europe could limit further immediate downside.  

Urea 

Market subdued as India and China hold the keys; Europe and Brazil offer partial support. 

Key Factors: 

• Sentiment stayed muted with participants awaiting clarity on India’s next tender and China’s export availability. 
• European and Brazilian demand offered some price support, though activity remained thin. 
• Iran continued to face difficulties moving September volumes, with heavy inventories pressuring offers. 
  
  

Outlook 
Until India tenders again and China clarifies its export flow, the market is likely to drift sideways with downside risk. Europe and Brazil may provide a partial floor, but not enough to spark a rally. 

Phosphates 

Chinese exporters target Ethiopia tender, but global sentiment weakens further. 

Key Factors: 

• Last week, participants awaited two tenders closing 16 September: Ethiopia (540,000 t DAP) and Bangladesh (165,000 t DAP, 110,000 t TSP). 
• Chinese exporters offered DAP at $775–780/t FOB into Ethiopia’s EABC tender, with at least six cargoes reportedly available. 
• Market sentiment remains bearish, with CFR benchmarks for DAP to India and MAP to Brazil showing further signs of softening. 
  
  

Outlook 
Despite tight availability, weaker demand and recent price declines suggest further downside risk. Chinese tender participation will be closely watched, but bearish tone dominates near term. 

Potash

Brazil-led weakness dominates, despite modest Southeast Asian gains. 

Key Factors: 

• Brazil continued to pressure global potash sentiment, with values slipping another $5/t last week. 
• Southeast Asian standard MOP edged $7/t higher, supported by firmer palm oil and a slight demand recovery. 
• Broader market tone remains flat to soft, with limited conviction behind any upside moves. 
  
  

Outlook 
Potash prices are expected to stay stable to bearish, with Brazil setting the pace. Any short-term firmness in Asia is unlikely to shift the overall trajectory.  

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1530	1.3627	1.1816

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Sept25	135-146	151-171	196-206	390-400