Market Reports

Wheat

Global grain markets have swung this week between optimism over potential Chinese buying and the reality of ample supplies, with speculative positioning and currency moves driving volatility. Chicago wheat and soybeans found intermittent support, while European markets struggled under a firm euro and heavy stocks. The February WASDE delivered few surprises, reinforcing a broadly comfortable global balance sheet.

Key Factors:

• President Trump’s suggestion of increased Chinese soybean buying sparked short covering and speculative gains, though Brazilian offers remain significantly cheaper. Futures continue to hinge on confirmation of Chinese demand, with talk of additional purchases offset by doubts over execution.
• February’s USDA report brought only marginal adjustments. Global wheat stocks dipped slightly month-on-month but remain well above last year. Corn ending stocks eased modestly, while Brazil’s soybean crop was lifted again, reinforcing expectations of ample South American supply.
• Chicago wheat rallied at times on fund short covering, with managed money still holding a sizeable net short. Technical resistance levels are coming into focus, while export demand remains respectable, particularly in the US and Argentina.
• European markets have been weighed on by both currency and stocks, with MATIF wheat trading within a defined €187–198 range, capped by a stronger euro and sluggish exports. EU ending stocks rose above 15 MMT, while French inventories rebuilt amid softer demand. London wheat remains pressured by comfortable UK supplies and limited export competitiveness.
• Argentine and Canadian wheat exports increased, intensifying competition into Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Black Sea logistics remain uneven, though Russian crop conditions are reported stronger year-on-year. South American soy and corn supplies continue to anchor global feed grain values.
  
  

Outlook
Absent of a clear surge in Chinese buying or a material weather threat, global grain markets appear rangebound. Large exporter stocks in the EU and Black Sea, alongside rising South American production, should cap rallies, though fund short covering and currency swings may inject further short-term volatility.

Malting Barley

Trading activity in malting barley remains limited, with very little new demand emerging for old crop. As a result, there appears to be little prospect of the premium over feed barley increasing in the near term. Weak demand sentiment continues to weigh on the market, leaving buyers hesitant to commit to forward purchases unless they have corresponding sales in place.

Key Factors:

• Firm feed barley values are helping to absorb surplus old crop malting barley. This is unsurprising given the poor premium available and the logistical need to keep stocks moving. That said, some holders with length in the market are still hoping for a late-season lift in premiums, particularly if quality downgrades become more widespread.
• New crop business remains slow. End users are unwilling to secure cover without confirmed sales, particularly given the significant long positions held across the malting barley sector last year. The memory of those positions remains fresh, reinforcing a cautious “once bitten, twice shy” approach to buying strategies.
• In the UK, old crop malting barley is effectively untradeable due to the absence of meaningful bids. Although January’s wet weather may lend some underlying support, the market is likely to struggle for upward momentum until feed prices soften and clearer demand emerges.
  
  

Outlook
Short-term upside appears limited. However, production risks remain — a single adverse weather event could quickly shift the balance. Attention will therefore remain firmly on weather developments in the months ahead.

Feed Barley

Feed barley remains steady on export support and tightening supply. We see limited new crop trade amid wet weather concerns and heightened caution as a result.

Key Factors:

• The feed barley market has once again held steady over the last week. We have seen continued albeit sporadic export interest to both Ireland and Portugal, which is helping to keep prices firm on the East Coast.
• Domestic markets have drifted slightly, as barley’s competitiveness in the ration drifts, which is pushing it out of feed formulations. However, underlying support still remains from the tightening S&D and we do not expect significant downside.
• New crop remains illiquid, as concerns grow over the extremely wet conditions which if prolonged will delay the planting of an already small spring barley crop. Farmers are not looking to make new crop sales in any significant fashion with so much time until harvest, meanwhile consumers continue to put on moderate coverage, although defensive basis is keeping significant buying activity from taking place.
  
  

Outlook
It remains difficult to see much downside to old crop feed barley prices whilst export demand continues to calculate against a tightening S&D, however significant upside also looks limited without a change in the fortunes of global ag products. New crop is likely to remain defensive from a basis perspective, however once again flat prices will be dictated by the global feed grain outlook as the Northern Hemisphere comes out of winter.

Rapeseed

It’s been another choppy week across ag markets, with plenty of back-and-forth trade but little in the way of fresh fundamental direction. Headlines around US trade policy, veg oil demand optimism and ongoing geopolitical tensions in crude have underpinned sentiment, while technical resistance levels have capped rallies. Funds have been active with bouts of short covering, and farmer selling has picked up into strength, particularly where psychological price targets have been met.

Key Factors:

• Chicago beans gained early through the week, with the market Pricing itself to only compete for Chinese demand. The trade remains conscious that increased exports to China will likely displace business elsewhere. The USDA report was largely neutral for beans, with no significant balance sheet shifts, and Brazilian production was nudged higher in line with expectations. Brazilian farmer selling remains behind last year’s pace at 33.9%, suggesting potential export pressure ahead. Technically, the market is consolidating after last week’s 60-cent rally, with late-session recoveries indicating underlying support but momentum indicators flattening. Veg oils found independent strength on US biofuel tax credit optimism, though Indian protests over potential US soyoil imports add a political dimension to demand prospects.
• Crude has traded within a defined range but retains a firm undertone, repeatedly bouncing from trendline support. Prices were pressured by optimism around a potential US-India trade deal and supported by continued efforts from the US and EU to restrict Russian and Iranian oil flows. Geopolitical risk remains elevated, with talk of additional US naval presence in the Middle East adding further risk premium. While indirect US-Iran talks have shown limited progress, the market remains sensitive to any escalation. From a technical standpoint, the market’s ability to recover late in sessions and defend support levels keeps the broader structure constructive, though without a decisive breakout higher.
• Canola has repeatedly tested the $665–670 resistance band but failed to achieve a clean breakout. Farmer selling increases around $15/bushel on farm have capped rallies, while positive crush margins continue to underpin the market and keep a bid underneath. December stocks came in slightly below trade expectations but remain historically comfortable. Chinese crush margins have softened, tempering export enthusiasm in the short term. Funds remain approximately 40kmt net short, and we have seen intermittent short covering contributing to volatility. Technically, the market remains in an upward channel, recently finding solid support at trendline levels. Momentum has slowed, but there are no clear reversal signals at present.

• MATIF May futures briefly broke above €485, which now acts as near-term support, but the market has twice failed to sustain moves through €490. The August contract continues to lag, remaining trapped within the broader €450–470 range and limiting new crop upside. Farmer selling has ticked up into strength yet underlying tight UK old crop stocks provide background support. We are currently trading mid-channel within the upward trend, suggesting scope for support if outside markets remain firm. However, repeated rejection at €490 highlights the need for fresh bullish input to trigger a technical breakout and open the path towards the next resistance band.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain technically constructive but capped by clear resistance levels across the complex. Soybeans need renewed export momentum to push higher, while crude’s direction hinges on geopolitical developments. Canola and Matif rapeseed are both supported by firm crush margins and relatively tight old crop supplies, yet farmer selling and fund positioning will dictate near-term volatility. A decisive break above resistance levels would likely invite fresh buying; failure may encourage consolidation.

Oats

Trade activity has been subdued over the past week, with current price levels discouraging growers from selling.

Key Factors:

• New buying interest from Turkey has paused, which is not unexpected considering the volume of oats traded over the previous six weeks. Nonetheless, with favourable tariff arrangements still in place, further demand could reappear in the coming weeks.
• Feed oat demand has strengthened recently, with fresh buying interest from Spain and Western Europe. Baltic supplies have tightened, and elevated freight costs — driven by storm conditions and ice — mean buyers are likely to face significantly higher prices to secure additional volumes.
• In the UK, low prices continue to restrict activity. Farmers remain unwilling to commit to values below their cost of production and are instead holding out for improved returns.
• While new crop prospects are still uncertain, reduced plantings will likely increase market sensitivity to any growing season issues, potentially adding upward pressure if production concerns arise.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, the market appears to have found a floor. Attention will increasingly turn to new crop developments to provide clearer direction.

Pulses

Other than the excitement of World Pulse Day at the start of the week, both pea and bean markets have remained subdued over the past week, and prices have seen little change, with no notable participation from buyers or sellers. Feed beans don’t compete into most feed rations, whilst pea markets are still weighed down by comfortable supply and uncertain export demand. Overall, trading activity across both markets has been minimal.

Key Factors:

• Another week has passed of unchanged old crop bean values, with UK feed bean pricing seemingly wishing to mount a challenge against Larry the cat to become the most stable thing in UK politics. Prices are c. £10-15/mt too expensive for beans to compete across the Feb-Apr position, whilst they still sit around £30–35/mt above alternative protein sources such as rapeseed meal and soybean meal further forward. At this level, beans can rarely be justified in feed rations, with the market limiting old crop demand as a result.
• Today marks the 42nd official day of continuous rain in the UK. Whilst ground water levels were certainly depleted following last summer, we need to see a rapid reduction in rainfall across many areas of the UK to allow the completion of the Spring Drilling campaign. With our marketing Pool still accepting additional bean contracts, speak to your Farm Trader, as it offers a great opportunity to achieve a managed result in a typically opaque market.
• UK demand for peas remains extremely quiet, largely due to the influx of more competitively priced Canadian peas entering the EU market. Prices continue to move sideways this week, with trading activity minimal. Discussions across the market remain centred on the renewed trade agreement between Canada and China. With the first few cargoes of Canadian yellow peas have been sold into China just ahead of Chinese New Year next week, the trade is still waiting to see if Chinese buyers will switch all their demand back to more traditional trade flows. 
•  In the UK specifically, domestic demand is virtually non-existent. The market still needs to absorb existing long positions before buyers are expected to re-engage in any meaningful way. Pea buyback programmes have now concluded, though there are still participants seeking new contract opportunities. Spring Linseed contracts remain available for those wishing to secure supply.
• Regular readers will no doubt have noticed that there are only so many ways that you can skin a cat with this report. If there are any requests for a spotlight on a specific topic, please let us know!
  
  

Outlook
Pulse markets yet again lean toward a slightly bearish tone, with limited support from either feed or human consumption demand. Beans remain priced out of most feed formulations, while ample pea supplies and the prospect of Canadian product returning to China are likely to cap any near-term upside. Until demand improves or surplus stocks are reduced, markets are expected to remain slow-moving.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Selecting the right variety remains fundamental to a successful season. Balancing yield potential with disease resistance, agronomic strength, and market demand is essential when planning spring cropping strategies. Our recently launched Spring Seed catalogue will help with varietal selection. It brings together our range of spring cropping options for the season ahead.

Key Factors:

• Within the spring portfolio, established varieties continue to lead the way thanks to their proven reliability, consistent results and strong market backing.

• Spring Barley: Laureate remains the top choice malting variety, with RGT Planet continuing to perform strongly, along with Skyway and CB Score offering dependable agronomic packages and broad appeal.
• Spring Oats: Merlin and Isabel remain firm favourites, valued for their consistency and strong demand from end users.
• Spring Beans: Lynx continues to deliver dependable performance and remains a popular choice.
• Spring Peas: This year all pea seed is treated as standard with Nuello iN, promoting rapid early growth, improved establishment and enhanced yield potential. This treatment is also available as an option across other spring crops. We still have availability of large blue, white and marrowfat varieties.

• Looking ahead to Autumn drilling, there has been a few notable additions to the 2026/27 AHDB Recommended List including KWS Fowlmere, LG Defiance, LG Challenger and KWS Aintree winter wheat. As the earliest maturing variety on the RL, KWS Fowlmere is certainly one of our top picks. It delivers a leading specific weight within the Group 4 hard wheat category and is an attractive combination of performance and risk management. 
• Our maize portfolio covers early through to later maturing varieties, enabling growers to tailor selections according to systems and intended end use, whether for game cover, forage, grain or biogas production.
• With spring drawing closer, focus is also shifting towards grass leys, environmental mixtures, fodder beet and a wide range of small seeds. Get in touch to find out more about our full small seed portfolio.
  
  

Outlook
Demand is expected to remain strong for varieties with a proven track record, particularly where consistent performance aligns with secure end markets. At the same time, newer genetics offering agronomic advantages and harvest flexibility are generating increasing interest. Early planning will be essential to secure preferred varieties and to ensure crops are well placed to deliver in Spring 2026 and beyond.

Fertiliser

Urea

Urea prices should remain supported through February with a fresh India tender announcement by RCF and healthy demand from the US set to compete for supply on both sides of the Suez. Further demand competition should emerge from Australia through Q1, while question marks remain over supply from Iran, where producers continue to await the return of natural-gas feedstock.

Nitrates and Sulphates

European nitrates struggle to compete in the UK domestic as gas prices rise and current stock levels fall, while in the Baltics, nitrate prices remain stable. Ahead of Chinese New Year, sulphates should maintain their bullish momentum amid a very tight supply environment.

Phosphates

UK market is tight and many importers are awaiting vessels of DAP especially. TSP and Fibrophos are available. 

Poatsh

Potash markets have become regionally fragmented with areas like Brazil and Southeast Asia undergoing high demand and experiencing higher supplier prices, while US NOLA and Northwest Europe remain a less attractive outlet for suppliers. Looking ahead, Brazil could see higher prices as it continues to rely on expensive Canadian imports. 

Outlook

One final note. Please be aware that deliveries will tighten as we move into the spring window. Any volumes you need for spring establishment please consider getting these requirements booked as a priority.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1476	1.3624	1.1869

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Feb25	145-155	159-169	195-205	425-435