Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Global wheat markets spent the week under pressure as improving crop prospects across Europe, the Black Sea region and parts of North America outweighed concerns over poor US winter wheat conditions. Speculative fund selling, weak export demand and expectations of higher global production kept futures near multi-month lows, although markets found technical support and stabilised ahead of the USDA WASDE report.

Key Factors:

• Speculative selling dominated market sentiment, with managed money continued aggressive liquidation across agricultural markets and Chicago wheat shorts expanding significantly. Persistent fund selling weighed on futures- pushing markets into key technical support levels and oversold conditions.
• Global weather has broadly favoured grain production this week, with timely rainfall improving prospects across the US Corn Belt, parts of Europe and Brazil, while Black Sea crop outlooks remained favourable. Improved moisture conditions have generally offset concerns surrounding dryness in some Russian spring wheat areas and parts of North America.
• Ahead of this evening’s USDA WASDE, global supply expectations have increased, with traders anticipating higher wheat production forecasts from Russia, Ukraine, the EU and the US, with consensus expecting global wheat output to rise by around 5 million tonnes in the June WASDE update, reinforcing a bearish supply outlook, albeit the end of month quarterly stocks numbers will be a bigger market watchpoint.
• Adding to the increasing sentiments of building stocks, demand remains subdued. Export flows continue to disappoint, particularly for US wheat, where sales lagged last year’s pace. Import tenders from Tunisia, Jordan and other buyers provided some support, but lower futures prices have yet to trigger a meaningful increase in global purchasing activity.
• UK and European cash markets have remained buoyant though, despite weaker futures. Physical wheat markets remained relatively tight, particularly for old crop supplies, supporting basis values across the UK, Germany and the Baltics. However, farmer selling remained limited as lower futures prices reduced grower engagement and liquidity.
  
  

Outlook
Attention now shifts to tonight’s USDA WASDE report and the Northern Hemisphere harvest. While technical support and short covering may generate periodic rallies, the broader market remains burdened by improving production prospects, sluggish demand and substantial speculative short positions. Weather during harvest and any material revisions to Black Sea or U.S. crop estimates will be key determinants of near-term price direction.

Malting Barley

European malting barley markets continued to trend lower last week, with multiple trades concluded at softer levels. The absence of any significant production concerns across Scandinavia, Germany and France has weighed on sentiment, reinforcing an already oversupplied balance sheet and a lack of direct demand from maltsters and brewers. Farmer selling remains largely absent, which is offering some underlying support and helping to limit the downside.

Key Factors:

• Favourable weather conditions across key exporting regions, including Denmark, Germany, France and the UK, have increased confidence in production prospects and encouraged selling pressure.
• At the same time, the continued lack of buying interest from the brewing and distilling sectors is keeping pressure on the EU balance sheet, which is currently forecast to hold a surplus of 1.4–1.5 MMT of malting barley.
• Feed barley values have also declined amid a lack of fresh bullish drivers and a broadly comfortable global grains balance sheet.
• Limited farmer engagement across Europe is helping to restrict further price declines in malting barley; however, weakening feed markets are inevitably dragging malting values lower, with current premiums becoming increasingly difficult to justify.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, European malting barley prices are expected to track the broader bearish tone across grain markets, given the anticipated large carryout. Looking ahead, the UK outlook remains uncertain. If a genuine production issue emerges, current pricing levels may be justified to maintain domestic supply and limit export competitiveness. However, if production proves sufficient, values will likely need to fall by approximately £10/mt to remain competitive in export markets. For now, the situation remains finely balanced.

Feed Barley

The old crop marketing season is effectively complete, with farmers largely sold out and consumers well covered ahead of harvest. Domestic prices remain defensive amid low liquidity, while absent export demand could lead to harvest pressure if significant farm movement is needed in July and August.

Key Factors:

• The old crop marketing campaign is about complete as the new harvest season is now only weeks away, and on the whole consumers are covered and farmers are sold up.
• Export markets do not exist for old crop today, as continental buyers eye up an inverse heading into harvest and will wait for combines to roll to buy some cheaper material.
• The UK domestic market is priced defensively, and for another week liquidity is low, and the market is trying to ration demand. The interesting dynamic will be whether there is much requirement for fast as available movement from farm, as the normal facilitator of this is the export market, which today is comfortably £10 from calculating. If significant volumes are required to move Jul/Aug, then we should see some harvest pressure.
  
  

Outlook
Unless we see significant delays to harvest, it is likely that old crop levels will erode down towards new crop pricing. Deferred positions will continue to track the wheat market until physical liquidity picks up.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets experienced another volatile week, with outside market influences continuing to dominate direction. Energy markets remained highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, creating significant intraday swings across the vegetable oil complex. Soybeans struggled under the weight of strong South American competition and generally favourable weather, while canola and rapeseed corrected from recent highs before finding support later in the week. Technical levels remained influential, with several markets testing key moving averages and trendline support zones as traders looked for fresh direction ahead of major reports.

Key Factors:

• Chicago soybeans spent most of the week under pressure, recording eight consecutive lower closes before staging a modest recovery on Wednesday. The market continued to battle a lack of fresh Chinese demand and aggressive South American competition, with Brazil expected to export a substantial 14.38mmt during June. Soymeal remained the weakest component of the complex as Argentina’s harvest nears completion and crusher availability increases, while speculative length in meal continued to unwind. Despite the softer tone, downside momentum appeared to be fading toward the end of the week, with support from firmer soyoil values and anticipation surrounding USDA and CONAB updates giving prices a breather.
• Energy markets remained a major driver of oilseed sentiment throughout the week. Crude experienced sharp daily swings as traders reacted to evolving Middle East headlines and concerns surrounding regional supply flows. While Chinese crude imports fell to their lowest level since 2018, supporting a more cautious demand outlook, the market continued to find support from broader supply uncertainty. Volatility remained elevated, with rallies often driven by geopolitical developments before profit-taking emerged. The resulting strength in vegetable oils helped provide intermittent support to the wider oilseed complex.
• Canola endured a significant correction after reaching contract highs, but the market showed resilience as prices repeatedly found support around the 20-day moving average after the significant drop. Strong crush margins continued to underpin commercial buying interest, though margins are struggling to reach any further highs. Fund activity also shifted during the week, with fresh buying emerging following several weeks of liquidation. Weather remains a key focus, with adequate moisture supporting crop establishment, although traders are beginning to monitor whether additional rainfall could become excessive in some regions. Technically, the market continues to hold a constructive higher-low pattern despite struggling to regain upside momentum.

• European rapeseed largely mirrored movements in canola and energy markets, trading lower early in the week before recovering strongly from support. Production prospects across Europe and the Black Sea region remain generally favourable, limiting enthusiasm on rallies and keeping harvest pressure firmly on traders’ radar. However, the market responded positively after repeatedly defending trendline support, culminating in a strong bounce on Wednesday. Attention is increasingly focused on the €530 level, which remains an important resistance area. A successful break higher could improve technical sentiment considerably, while failure may encourage renewed consolidation towards €509 as harvest approaches.
  
  

Outlook
Attention now shifts towards todays USDA and CONAB updates, which could provide the next directional catalyst for soybean markets. Weather will remain critical across North America, particularly for canola development as crops move deeper into the growing season. Energy markets are likely to continue influencing vegetable oils, although volatility may remain elevated as traders assess ongoing geopolitical developments. For rapeseed, nearby harvest pressure is approaching, but strong support levels and resilient crush demand continue to provide an underlying floor to prices.

Oats

Oat markets have remained relatively quiet over the past week, with buyers waiting for clearer demand signals before engaging, while sellers continue to wait for increased farmer participation. Although reduced production in parts of the EU could provide support to milling markets if supply issues arise in key regions, current crop conditions are broadly stable. Weaker feed barley markets have exerted downward pressure on feed oat values; however, with limited urgency from either side, bid-offer spreads remain wide and trade is subdued.

Key Factors:

• Strong demand has tightened the UK 2025 balance sheet, which is likely to support old crop prices as harvest approaches.
• Dry conditions across the UK from March through to the end of May have impacted yield potential, and despite recent rainfall, uncertainty remains around the development of any secondary tillers.
• More broadly, the absence of fresh bullish news continues to weigh on grain markets, although milling oats remain driven by their own supply and demand dynamics.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, old crop prices could remain supported if demand persists and millers look to secure cover ahead of what is currently seen as a less promising new crop. In the medium term, market direction will depend on global production and demand developments. The UK remains competitively priced and could become an active exporter, should demand materialise. Longer term, planting intentions for the 2027 crop will be key. Without sufficient price incentives, growers may look to alternative crops offering more reliable returns. Another season of sub-cost production values would likely accelerate this shift.

Pulses

The last week has seen continued rainfall across much of the UK, which pulse crops are certainly benefitting from. Whilst the beans seem to still be a tale of two halves between the winters and the springs, springs are looking better than they did a week ago. As the old crop market steadily winds down, we are starting to see the odd blip of interest in the new crop as harvest approaches and trade confidence in the prospects of the coming crop improve.

Key Factors:

• New crop bean trade remains subdued, although as harvest continues to steadily draw nearer and the crop prospects look less negative following the recent rainfall, there appears to be a little more confidence in the crop. Ultimately though, beans continue to take direction from movements in London Feed Wheat futures.
• Sentiment in the old crop Bean market is starting to wobble after having firmed in recent weeks. This is primarily being driven by dwindling old crop demand where a combination of firmer prices and slower origination has turned many consumers off for the remainder of the season. The atmosphere of low liquidity remains, however beans are still coming forward, although prices are starting to feel under present. Growers holding remaining old crop stocks may wish to consider taking advantage of current market strength while these firmer values remain available.
• The old-crop pea market is now largely finished for the season, with only a few gaps remaining to be filled between old-crop and new-crop supplies. However, buyers are currently sitting on the sidelines. As with the beans, recent rainfall has certainly benefited crop development. That said, crops that failed to establish properly earlier in the season are likely to suffer and may experience some yield deficits. In contrast, later-drilled crops that have received adequate moisture generally look promising.
• As we move forward, it is important to remain vigilant with pest management, particularly regarding moth activity and bruchid beetle. Growers should monitor crops carefully, especially where beetle populations may have developed during the flowering period. Further information and guidance can be found on the PGRO website.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, recent rainfall has improved pulse crop prospects and boosted confidence in the new-crop outlook, although winter and spring beans remain variable. Trade activity is expected to increase as harvest approaches, while old-crop demand continues to fade. Market direction will remain closely tied to feed wheat values, and growers should maintain vigilance against bruchid beetle and moth pressure to protect yield potential.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As growers begin planning autumn rotations, focus is turning to seed requirements. With limited availability of some new key varieties, early ordering will be essential to secure the new options.

Key Factors:

• Trials Days – Throughout June and July, ADM will be hosting a range of Trials Days across England in collaboration with leading plant breeders. These events offer a valuable opportunity to compare established Recommended List varieties alongside promising new candidates for future seasons.

Key dates:

24 June – DSV, Flawborough

2 July – Limagrain, Rothwell

7 July – KWS, Yorkshire

These events provide a practical insight into local variety performance, as well as the chance to discuss disease pressures, emerging genetics and market opportunities with both breeders and ADM specialists. Contact us to reserve a place.

• Winter OSR – OSR remains one of the most profitable crops in the rotation, continuing to deliver strong gross margins across many farms this autumn. Alongside its financial benefits, it plays an important agronomic role, helping to reduce grassweed burdens, break cereal disease cycles and improve overall soil condition.

Choosing the right variety is key to success. The ADM portfolio focuses on high output, strong oil content, dependable agronomic performance and robust disease resistance.

Featured varieties include:

Karat – Joint highest gross output in the East/West region, supported by a strong disease profile including Rlm12.

Daymon – A new candidate combining high oil content, excellent vigour and strong stem canker resistance (RlmS + Rlm7).

LG Atom – A new Limagrain hybrid offering pod shatter resistance, TuYV protection and resilience to CSFB.

LG Academic – A reliable on-farm performer with excellent standing power and LG’s stem health tag.

For full details, see the ADM Seed Catalogue.

• OSR Establishment Scheme – To help reduce early-season risk, ADM Agriculture offers an internal Establishment Scheme on selected high-performing hybrids. This provides added reassurance and supports a strong start in the field.
• Winter Wheat – This season sees several exciting new winter wheat varieties entering the market:

LG Defiance – Combines strong yield potential with a solid disease resistance package, including good yellow rust resistance plus specific weight.

Sparkler – Offers the joint-highest Septoria tritici rating among Group 4 feeds and stands as the highest-yielding Group 4 soft on the Recommended List.

KWS Aintree – A new Group 4 hard feed delivering consistently high yields across regions and seasons.

• Small Seeds

Interest in small seeds continues to grow as growers plan for summer drilling. Whether for grass leys, environmental schemes, game cover or tailored mixtures, your ADM Farm Trader can provide guidance and secure the right mixtures to suit your system.

Outlook
As growers attend Trials Days and assess varieties under local conditions, plans for autumn cropping will become clearer. Variety choice remains one of the most critical factors in achieving a successful crop, and engaging early will help ensure access to the best genetics for the 2026 drilling season.

Fertiliser

Ammonia

Global ammonia markets remain structurally tight, with limited prompt availability and ongoing production disruptions continuing to support elevated prices. 

Key Factors: 

• The gap between buyer expectations and seller pricing remains significant, underlining how elevated replacement values have become across East of Suez markets. 

• The failed Indian ammonia tender has reinforced broader market sentiment that the global ammonia balance remains structurally short despite some softening in adjacent nitrogen markets such as urea and nitrates. 

• Supply flexibility remains limited due to ongoing regional outages, constrained Middle East availability and reduced prompt spot liquidity. 

• Demand across East of Suez markets remains persistent, particularly from India and wider Asian buyers competing for limited cargoes. 

• While softer sentiment has emerged in parts of the wider nitrogen complex, ammonia continues to trade independently due to its significantly tighter underlying supply fundamentals. 

• Additional support is now emerging from Europe, where summer maintenance programmes are beginning to reduce regional ammonia availability. 

• In Bulgaria, Neochim shut down its ammonia unit on 2 June, followed by nitric acid and nitrate production, with gas consumption halted until 1 July. 

• In Croatia, Petrokemija suspended ammonia and urea production in late May, with no confirmed restart date currently announced. 

• Further maintenance and production curtailments are also occurring across Europe, including facilities operated by Grupa Azoty and LAT Nitrogen, with some outages expected to extend through June and into August. 

• These maintenance programmes are reducing spot availability at a time when global ammonia balances were already tight, providing additional support to international benchmarks. 
  
  

Outlook 
Ammonia prices are expected to remain firm in the near term. Persistent demand across Asia, limited prompt availability and ongoing production outages in both Europe and other key producing regions continue to support a structurally bullish market. While urea and nitrates have shown signs of softening, ammonia fundamentals remain significantly tighter and are likely to keep values elevated through the summer maintenance period. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Global sulphate markets have come under increasing pressure as falling urea prices reduce nitrogen substitution economics and buyers remain reluctant to build inventory in a declining market. 

Key Factors: 

• Ammonium sulphate markets have weakened considerably over recent weeks as lower urea prices have reduced the competitiveness of amsul on a nitrogen value basis. 

• Standard amsul values in China have fallen sharply to $225-235/t FOB from $255-260/t FOB at the end of May, reflecting both weaker demand and growing export pressure. 

• Brazil has been the most heavily affected market, with compacted amsul values falling from $285-295/t CFR in April to around $240-245/t CFR. 

• Despite low inventories of both urea and amsul, purchasing activity remains cautious as participants expect further downside. 

• Demand support may emerge from recent tenders, with Pupuk Indonesia seeking 100,000 tonnes and HURL in India seeking up to 60,000 tonnes of ammonium sulphate. 

• Ammonium nitrate markets have shown greater resilience than sulphates, although activity remains selective and seasonally subdued. 

• GCT in Tunisia has entered the market with a tender for a minimum of 100,000 tonnes of AN for July to November delivery, providing some support to forward demand. 

• European nitrate pricing has remained relatively stable, with CAN and AN values broadly holding despite softer nitrogen sentiment elsewhere. 

• Export demand into Latin America and Africa continues to provide some support for AN values, though buying remains measured rather than aggressive. 
  
  

Outlook 
Sulphates remain under the greatest pressure, with falling urea prices continuing to undermine demand and weigh on global values. Nitrates are proving more resilient, supported by relatively balanced supply and periodic tender demand, though broader seasonal weakness is limiting upside potential. Unless urea stabilises and buying confidence returns, the nitrate and sulphate complex is likely to remain under pressure in the near term. 

Urea

Market sentiment remains fragile as China’s policy reversal creates uncertainty around global supply availability and price direction. 

Key Factors: 

• China removed minimum export prices on 6 June before reinstating them only days later, creating significant volatility and uncertainty across the global urea market. 

• The reinstated floor prices have pushed Chinese prilled urea back to $480-500/t FOB, while new India specific floor prices have been set at $500/t FOB for prills and $510/t FOB for granular and AGU material. 

• The rapid policy reversal has increased uncertainty around how much Chinese volume will ultimately reach export markets and at what price levels. 

• India remains the key focal point. NFL’s 1.7 Mt tender closed on 8 June after attracting 33 offers, demonstrating that global supply remains available despite ongoing market concerns. 

• Initial indications suggest many offers were submitted well below $450/t CFR, though official tender results remain outstanding. 

• The reinstatement of Chinese floor prices could potentially reduce the volume available into India at lower price levels, increasing uncertainty around final awards. 

• Fixed price business remains limited in both regions as buyers wait for greater clarity on the Indian tender outcome and Chinese export policy. 

• In the US, NOLA urea values recovered modestly to $387.50-410/st FOB after earlier weakness, suggesting downside momentum may be slowing. 

• Australia continues to secure supply through government backed initiatives, with an additional 31,000 tonnes of Malaysian urea supported under the national fertiliser security programme. 
  
  

Outlook 
Urea markets are expected to remain stable to slightly firmer in the near term, with the NFL tender outcome providing the next major directional signal. China’s reinstated floor prices reduce the likelihood of aggressive downside pressure, while uncertainty over export availability may ultimately prove supportive if Indian demand absorbs significant volumes. The market remains well supplied for now, but sentiment is becoming increasingly dependent on policy decisions rather than underlying fundamentals alone. 

Phosphates

Global phosphate markets remain fundamentally tight, though affordability pressure is increasingly slowing spot activity and price momentum.

 

Key Factors: 

• Global DAP and MAP spot market activity is expected to remain relatively subdued this week as buyers become increasingly cautious at elevated pricing levels. 

• While the supply side remains exceptionally tight, affordability concerns are beginning to materially slow both purchasing activity and the pace of further price increases. 

• India, the key global DAP import market, recently secured commitments for around 1.3 Mt under its latest tender, leaving importers primarily focused on vessel booking and allocation rather than fresh purchasing. 

• The large Indian procurement programme has temporarily reduced immediate spot demand, helping calm some short-term market momentum. 

• Brazil, the key MAP import market, continues to show very limited appetite for fresh business due to poor affordability and tightening credit conditions. 

• Brazilian MAP prices have now remained broadly unchanged for more than a month following an aggressive 42% rally during the first four months of the year. 

• In the US, phosphate prices continue to move higher, though domestic benchmarks remain below prevailing international levels. 

• The disconnect between US and international pricing continues encouraging some market participants to evaluate re export opportunities where logistics allow. 

• Despite softer activity levels, the broader market remains structurally tight due to ongoing Chinese export restrictions, constrained Saudi logistics and elevated sulphur and ammonia costs. 
  
  

Outlook 
Phosphate markets are expected to remain fundamentally supported, though affordability concerns are increasingly acting as a brake on fresh buying activity. Supply remains exceptionally constrained globally, but slower demand from India and Brazil may temporarily stabilise price momentum in the near term. 

Potash

Potash markets remain broadly stable as tighter supply is increasingly offset by concerns around future demand destruction. 

Key Factors: 

• Global potash prices remained broadly stable this week, with limited fresh directional momentum across most regions. 

• The recently concluded India contract settlement at $383/t CFR failed to provide any significant additional boost to market sentiment despite representing a higher year on year benchmark. 

• Similarly, Pupuk’s tender for 20,000 tonnes of standard MOP generated little market reaction, reflecting relatively balanced short-term fundamentals. 

• Supply availability remains relatively tight in several regions, supported by ongoing logistical constraints and disciplined supplier positioning. 

• However, market participants are increasingly focused on the potential for demand destruction during the second half of the year. 

• Rising fertiliser costs across nitrogen and phosphates are beginning to pressure overall farm budgets, even though potash remains comparatively more affordable. 

• Buyers in several regions are becoming more cautious around forward commitments at current levels, particularly where crop economics remain under pressure. 

• Supplier sentiment remains relatively firm, though the market currently lacks a strong catalyst for aggressive upward movement. 
  
  

Outlook 
Potash markets are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term. Tight supply continues to provide support, but growing concerns around second half demand destruction are limiting upside momentum. The market remains balanced for now, with future direction likely to depend on how demand evolves across key agricultural regions through summer and early autumn. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1589	1.3366	1.1534

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
June26	154-163	177-185	220-230	440-450