Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Global grain markets rallied sharply after the USDA’s May WASDE report projected materially tighter 2026/27 wheat supplies, outweighing earlier expectations for broadly comfortable balances. Wheat futures surged across the USA and Europe before consolidating, while corn remained comparatively inactive due to comfortable supplies. Energy volatility linked to Middle East tensions and persistent lack of farmer engagement added further support to prices.

Key Factors:

• The USDA sharply reduced 2026/27 global wheat production forecasts, with output falling nearly 25mmt year-on-year. Global ending stocks were revised lower for both the current and coming seasons, triggering near limit-up moves in CBOT wheat and strong gains in MATIF and London futures- supported by strong volumes. Ending stocks in the world’s 8 major wheat exporters are expected to drop around 13% year on year, and this key barometer of global availability fed the bullish surge. To fresh contract highs for US markets and equal highs in Europe early in the week.
• Corn fundamentals remained comparatively bearish-to-neutral. Larger South American crops, especially in Argentina and Brazil, lifted global production and ending stocks, although stronger industrial demand and tighter wheat supplies continued to lend indirect support to feed grain markets.
• Energy markets remained a major macro driver. Brent crude held above $100/barrel for much of the period amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing inflation concerns and supporting agricultural commodities through higher fuel and fertiliser cost expectations.
• European and UK wheat markets stayed structurally tight despite improved rainfall. UK farmer selling remained limited after recent dryness, with basis firming to keep wheat flowing and old crop is now trading at a big inverse to new crop. UK markets continued to face poor liquidity, with some northern regions effectively capped by import parity pricing in the remaining old crop slots ahead of an anticipated early harvest.
• Funds maintained an aggressive long position across agricultural markets, particularly in wheat, corn and soybean oil. However, analysts increasingly warned that wheat’s premium over corn could eventually ration demand, raising the risk of a sharper correction if speculative positions begin to unwind.
  
  

Outlook
Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to weather, energy prices and geopolitical developments following the WASDE shock. While tighter wheat balance sheets underpin prices near term, improving Northern Hemisphere weather and ample corn supplies could temper further gains. Attention now shifts to Black Sea production prospects, Chinese demand and the pace of speculative fund participation.

Malting Barley

European malting markets returned a negative result over the last week with recent rains reigniting the bearish sentiment of an oversupplied market. Wheat markets may have rallied however the expectation of another good crop across Europe combined with diminished demand has weighed on prices. That said strong feed barley prices continue to add underlying support.

Key Factors:

• Widespread rainfall in the key exporting nations of France, Denmark has helped dampen dryness concerns and built confidence of production.
• Robust Chinese demand for feed barley continues to add support to barley prices, with some sales looking likely to be covered in France in Q3.
• The UK’s relatively small spring barley acreage is adding pressure to production prospects with many key areas continuing to suffer from exceptional dryness.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, malting barley prices in Europe have dropped from the highs, however UK prices are being supported by the lack of meaningful rainfall. Farmer selling is consequentially very poor. Looking ahead the outlook for malting barley in the UK remains uncertain. On the one hand it is supported by strong feed prices but on the other it is weakened by poor demand. But if areas do not receive the rain required then we could see a good reason for higher prices.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets remain quiet with limited old crop supplies supporting prices, while new crop values have firmed on weather concerns and stronger futures, though export demand remains uncompetitive versus domestic markets.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley markets have been almost totally without activity over the last week, for both old crop and new crop positions.
• Old crop values are flat week on week on thin trade. On farm stocks are running thin, and we see little downside in the short term as a result, particularly as firm wheat markets make barley look more attractive. We are not seeing any fresh export business.
• New crop values are higher, as futures rally post Tuesday’s USDA report, and basis holds firm on slow farmer selling. Liquidity is particularly poor on concerns over crop prospects, following a very dry spell which is stressing spring crops. Recent rains will have provided some benefit, however is it too little too late?
• New crop export markets are again not calculating, as domestic demand looks a much better sell. If we see a significant pickup in farmer selling, we could see basis drop as a result to buy some demand.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop prices are likely to remain supported in the short term on low supply and attractive pricing. New crop values will continue to follow wheat prices until we see greater liquidity.

Rapeseed

Ag markets traded with a firmer undertone this week, though volatility remained elevated as macro headlines continued to dictate direction across the oilseed complex. Attention centred on the USDA report, ongoing US, China discussions and developments around US and Iran negotiations, all of which fed directly into energy and vegetable oil markets. Soybeans remained well supported by robust crush demand, while Canadian canola and MATIF rapeseed continued to respect key technical support levels despite increasingly choppy trade. Currency movement and strong global crush margins also remained constructive for European rapeseed values.

Key Factors:

• Soybeans – CBOT soybeans posted a constructive week overall, finding support from strong global crush demand following this week’s USDA update as well as resilient meal values. The USDA report confirmed another record Brazilian soybean crop projection for 26/27 at 186mmt, though the market largely focused on increasing demand offsetting increasing supply – overall showing lower than expected global ending stocks. Meal futures showed notable strength throughout the week, while soyoil remained more volatile due to swings in crude oil and broader vegoil sentiment. Technically, soybeans continue to trade with a firm bias, supported on pullbacks as funds remain reluctant to build aggressive short positions while crush margins stay historically strong.
• Crude oil – Crude oil experienced another volatile week with large daily swings driven by developments surrounding US/Iran negotiations and broader geopolitical logistics concerns. Early week pressure quickly reversed as optimism around negotiations faded, keeping uncertainty around shipping routes and supply flows firmly in focus. Despite some late-week profit taking, the energy complex remains highly headline sensitive, with traders continuing to price in logistical risk premiums and potential disruptions to global trade flows.
• Canadian canola – Canola futures traded in an erratic range, though continued to hold major technical support around the 50-day moving average and broader trendline levels. Record Canadian crush margins remained the primary supportive factor, particularly as canola oil demand stayed firm throughout the week. However, price action became increasingly two-sided with repeated reversals suggesting uncertainty near current levels. Some long liquidation emerged ahead of the USDA report, while weaker soyoil sessions also reduced crusher buying interest at times. Even so, underlying fundamentals remain supportive.
• MATIF rapeseed – MATIF rapeseed futures posted another firm week overall, although the market failed to convincingly form a new high. Prices continued to respect trendline support, helping maintain a constructive upward structure despite increasingly volatile intraday trade. Support came from stronger outside markets, a softer EUR/USD, and continued tightness in non-GMO supply availability for old crop. European crop conditions remain mostly favourable overall, although concerns persist in parts of Ukraine. Australian non-GMO rapeseed also remains largely uncompetitive due to strong domestic crush margins, leaving European origin more heavily relied upon for nearby demand coverage.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain highly headline driven with macro developments continuing to steer direction across the oilseed complex. Traders will closely monitor developments from ongoing US and China discussions alongside any further progress in Iranian negotiations, particularly for their influence on crude oil and vegetable oils. Technically, both canola and MATIF rapeseed still hold constructive chart structures, though recent choppy trade suggests momentum may be slowing near resistance. Soybean crush demand remains supportive, but volatility and rapid fund repositioning are likely to persist in the short term.

Oats

Oat markets continue to be illiquid with neither buyer nor seller looking to push for trades. Strong feed barley prices are helping to support the feed base for oats and if this brings about greater demand it is difficult to see why oats should maintain their current levels. Dryness is currently the biggest challenge for the UK market and until we gain clarity in one direction or the other it feels things could remain in a state of inertia.

Key Factors:

• Low demand is being offset by lack of selling pressure and prices remain illiquid as a result.
• Very dry conditions across large parts of the UK continue to raise concerns over yield potential and production potential. Spain however remains the key exception.
• Elevated feed barley prices remain a strong driver for supporting oat markets, but we are yet to see this demand flow into the market.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, old-crop oat values are starting to see some upside with some shorts starting to appear in the market. In the medium term the outlook is more buoyant with strong feed markets possibly combining with poor production prospects. Longer term, if growers do not see significant price rallies it is likely that they will look to substitute oats for another crop that offers greater returns.

Pulses

With further rainfall over the last week, Pulse crops continue to look positive, having not seen as much stress as some cereal crops. The growing conditions for the new crop remain supportive, with further precipitation forecast. New crop pricing continues to track London Feed Wheat futures as the underlying bean values hunt for sentiment. With old crop beans remaining slow, the trade is steadily filling in the remaining pieces of demand with little fresh sales being made into the end of the season.

Key Factors:

• Bean markets have continued to drift sideways over the past week, with activity remaining notably thin and only sporadic loads changing hands. Limited liquidity has lent underlying support to prices, although the firmer tone appears more reflective of muted participation than any genuine shortage of supply, with tonnage still steadily surfacing into the market. Old crop beans continue to command a premium against imported feed alternatives, a dynamic that is also carrying forward into the new crop position. Demand from the poultry sector remains a key underpinning factor, with inclusion rates continuing to outpace those seen across the larger livestock sectors.

• Attention is increasingly turning towards the new crop outlook, where sentiment across much of the UK remains broadly constructive. Both winter and spring beans are generally reported in solid condition, having so far coped well with the prolonged dry spell. While some cereal crops in southern areas have already required irrigation support, beans have shown comparatively better resilience, with the current rainfall we’re now seeing and forecast in the coming weeks hopefully sufficient to preserve yield potential.
• Globally, pea markets remain largely steady, with little meaningful movement in pricing from the previous week. Trade flows continue to be influenced by uncertainty surrounding the US and Iran situation alongside ongoing anti-dumping measures, both of which are maintaining a cautious tone across the market. Buyers remain reluctant to extend coverage aggressively, with most interest centred on prompt or nearby requirements rather than longer-term commitments. As the market edges closer to harvest, price direction is likely to remain closely tied to evolving crop prospects and logistical developments.
• Within the domestic market, trading conditions remain relatively subdued. Many consumers appear adequately covered through the near term, limiting fresh demand ahead of new crop availability. Planting is now effectively complete across the UK, and although recent rainfall has provided some welcome relief, further moisture will still be needed to sustain crop development through the coming weeks. Weather conditions are expected to remain the dominant influence on market sentiment from here.
  
  

Outlook
New crop pulse markets are expected to remain weather-led in the near term, with recent rainfall and supportive forecasts underpinning broadly positive new crop prospects. Beans continue to show greater resilience than cereals, while thin old crop trade and firm poultry demand are maintaining underlying support. Market direction will likely hinge on further moisture, harvest development and broader sentiment across feed grain markets.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

This coming season brings a wave of opportunities across OSR and winter cereals, with strong market drivers and exciting new varieties shaping decisions.

Key Factors:

• Winter OSR: OSR continues to deliver one of the strongest gross margins on farm, making it a key crop to consider in rotations this autumn. Alongside its financial performance, OSR provides valuable agronomic benefits, reducing grassweed pressure, breaking cereal disease cycles and improving soil structure. Success starts with choosing the right variety. Our ADM portfolio is carefully selected for yield, oil content, disease resistance and strong agronomic traits. Explore our top picks in the ADM Seed Catalogue.
•  OSR Establishment Scheme: To support growers and reduce early‑season risk, ADM offers an internal Establishment Scheme across a selection of our highest‑performing varieties. This helps to manage risk and achieve the highest possible output.

• Winter Wheat: Several exciting new varieties are entering the market this year. Sparkler brings the joint‑highest Septoria tritici resistance rating within the Group 4 feeds. LG Defiance offers a yellow rust rating of 8 with consistently strong yields across regions. KWS Fowlmere stands out for its exceptionally early maturity, helping growers spread and manage harvest workload more effectively.
• Small Seeds: Demand for small seeds is building as growers plan for spring and summer drilling. Whether it’s grass leys, environmental mixtures, game cover or something else, get in touch with your ADM Farm Trader to secure your standard/ bespoke mix.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, the outlook remains positive, with strong varietal performance and stable demand in the market. Timely decision‑making and early engagement will be key to securing the best options and maximising opportunities this season.

Fertiliser

Ammonia

Global ammonia markets remain firmly supported, with persistent structural tightness and fresh Southeast Asian disruption maintaining upward pressure. 

Key Factors: 

• The May Tampa contract settling at $825/t CFR continues to reinforce the strength of the global ammonia market and confirms ongoing supply tightness. 
• Attention is now turning toward India ahead of IPL’s tender for 521,000 tonnes of ammonia, with bids due 18 May. 
• The tender is expected to act as a key test of whether producers can satisfy Indian demand at commercially workable price levels in the current environment. 
• East of Suez markets remain particularly strained, with persistent demand coinciding with increasingly limited supply flexibility. 
• PT ESSA’s PAU turnaround, which began on 6 May, is tightening Southeast Asian availability further and removing additional prompt tonnes from the market. 
• Petronas volumes also remain absent, continuing to constrain regional supply options. 
• In the Atlantic basin, Northwest European demand is still actively absorbing limited North African tonnes, preventing any meaningful easing in market balance. 
• While urea markets have softened slightly from recent highs, ammonia continues to decouple and remain structurally supported due to the much tighter global supply position. 
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia markets are expected to remain firm with continued upward pressure in the near term. Tight East of Suez availability, ongoing turnarounds and persistent Indian demand are maintaining a structurally short market, with little indication of meaningful supply relief emerging soon. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

New season pricing begins to emerge in Europe, though underlying demand remains subdued. 

Key Factors:

•  Some market participants suggest India’s IPL may ultimately corner its ammonium sulphate tender for 300,000 tonnes, which would tighten available prompt supply and support Asian pricing. 
• Yara International has issued a fresh AN offer at €510/t CPT following reports that LAT Nitrogen sold out its earlier €495/t CPT offer. 
• The speed at which LAT’s offer reportedly cleared suggests producers remain disciplined on volume and are testing higher new season pricing levels. 
• The market is now awaiting fresh CAN and UAN offers from other European producers, which should provide clearer direction for the wider nitrogen complex heading into new season positioning. 
• Despite firmer producer ideas, underlying demand remains relatively muted, with buyers still cautious around committing at elevated levels. 
• In sulphates, Asian markets remain supported by Indian interest, though broader global demand conditions remain mixed. 
  
  

Outlook
Nitrates and sulphates are expected to remain broadly stable to firm in the near term. European producer pricing is beginning to establish a higher new season floor, though weak demand may limit the pace of further gains. Market focus now shifts to upcoming CAN and UAN offers and whether.

Urea

Market enters a quieter phase post India tender, though underlying global tightness continues to provide support. 

Key Factors: 

• Global urea markets are expected to remain relatively subdued in the near term following the conclusion of India’s large IPL tender last month. 
• With major buying programmes temporarily complete, much of global demand has moved to the sidelines while participants reassess price direction. 
• Australia remains the key exception, with importers expected to increase purchases for the winter crop application season. 
• However, amid softer pricing sentiment, Australian buyers have recently focused more heavily on formula-based purchasing rather than aggressive spot buying. 
• Concerns around US May to June import requirements have eased somewhat, with latest trade flow data suggesting demand may not be as large as initially feared. 
• Despite this moderation in demand expectations, the global market remains structurally tight due to ongoing Middle East logistical disruption and constrained prompt availability. 
• Supply flexibility remains limited, meaning any resurgence in buying activity could quickly tighten balances again. 
  
  

Outlook 
Urea markets are expected to remain quieter in the immediate term as post India demand slows and buyers adopt a more cautious approach. However, underlying fundamentals remain supportive, with the market still structurally tight and highly sensitive to any renewed demand or geopolitical disruption. 

Phosphates

Market tone softens slightly post India tender, but structurally tight supply continues to support higher global pricing. 

Key Factors: 

• India’s IPL tender outcome has shifted short term sentiment slightly less bullish than previously expected, with the importer successfully securing 1.347 Mt DAP at lower levels than many market participants anticipated. 

• Counter bids were issued at $930/t CFR west coast and $935/t CFR east coast India, with many suppliers accepting, suggesting sellers were willing to move tonnes at these levels despite the tight global balance. 
• Demand outside India remains relatively subdued. Brazil continues to struggle with affordability; the Australian season is effectively complete and US buyer appetite remains cautious at current pricing. 
• Despite softer demand sentiment, global phosphate availability remains exceptionally tight. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, severely disrupting normal Saudi export logistics. 
• Saudi producers are now increasingly rerouting tonnes through Red Sea ports such as Yanbu and Neom, though this requires significant trucking logistics and materially raises costs. 
• SABIC Agri-Nutrients sold 30,000 t DAP at $900/t FOB Yanbu for June loading into India, reinforcing how elevated replacement values remain despite weaker spot sentiment. 
• In the US, DAP and MAP prices continue climbing, with NOLA DAP barges trading up to $800/st FOB despite limited liquidity. Concerns over Saudi supply disruption continue supporting US pricing given the country’s dependence on imported phosphate. 
• Traders are also reportedly gathering US tonnes for re export opportunities, highlighting the disconnect between US domestic pricing and tighter international benchmarks. 
• Affordability concerns remain severe globally and demand destruction is increasingly expected, though current supply constraints continue to outweigh weaker demand fundamentals. 
  
  

Outlook 
Phosphate market sentiment has softened marginally following India’s tender outcome, but the underlying global balance remains extremely tight. Saudi logistical disruption, absent Chinese exports and constrained prompt availability continue supporting elevated pricing. While affordability and weaker global demand may limit the pace of further gains, the broader trend remains upward unless there is a meaningful improvement in supply availability. 

Potash

Potash markets continue to trend gradually firmer as buyers remain active and affordability relative to other nutrients support demand. 

Key Factors:

•  MOP prices are expected to rise marginally in the near term, supported by continued buying activity across key import regions. 
• Farmers are increasingly building buffer stocks while potash still remains relatively affordable compared with nitrogen and phosphates. 
• The sharp increase in pricing across other fertiliser nutrients is reinforcing potash’s relative value proposition and encouraging forward purchasing. 

• Demand remains particularly robust in major agricultural regions where buyers are attempting to secure tonnes ahead of further expected increases. 
• Suppliers remain constructive on pricing and continue to target incremental gains as market sentiment stays firm. 
• While underlying supply remains broadly stable, elevated logistics, insurance and inland distribution costs are continuing to support higher replacement values. 
• The near-term risk remains skewed to the upside as buying activity continues despite broader affordability pressures across the fertiliser complex. 
  
  

Outlook 
Potash markets are expected to remain firm with a gradual upward bias. Relative affordability versus nitrogen and phosphates continues to underpin demand, while suppliers remain confident further marginal price increases can be achieved in the near term. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1540	1.3501	1.1702

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
May26	154-165	182-190	210-220	490-500