Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Global grain markets drifted lower this week as improving weather across the US Plains and Black Sea region, alongside weaker crude oil prices, which all combined to weigh on sentiments. Wheat futures remained rangebound amid thin liquidity, while concerns over hot and dry conditions in Western Europe limited downside pressure. Markets continue balancing comfortable global supply expectations against geopolitical and weather-related risks.

Key Factors:

• Wheat markets remained technically weak, with CBOT and MATIF futures pressured by improved US rainfall forecasts, favourable Black Sea crop conditions and softer energy markets. Large Russian and Ukrainian production expectations continued to cap rallies despite ongoing concerns around dryness in parts of France and Central Europe.
• European wheat retained export competitiveness, although wider MATIF carries and strong Black Sea supply prospects reduced nearby support. Russian wheat values strengthened on tight domestic stocks and a firm rouble, while EU exports remained solid, led by Romania, France and Germany.
• UK wheat trade stayed exceptionally quiet, with low liquidity dominating both old and new crop markets. Consumers remained relaxed on nearby cover amid expectations of increasing imports through summer, while growers cautiously explored forward sales opportunities supported by attractive carries into 2027.
• Weather remained the principal market driver. Warm, dry conditions across Western Europe contrasted with improving moisture forecasts for the US Plains and Black Sea region. Record May temperatures accelerated crop development in the UK, though forecast rainfall next week should support yield potential at a critical stage.
• Broader macroeconomic and geopolitical developments continued influencing agricultural sentiment. Volatility in crude oil linked to Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz negotiations spilled into grain markets, while traders also monitored evolving US-China relations and shifting global trade flows.
  
  

Outlook
Grain markets appear likely to remain rangebound in the near term, with weather forecasts, energy markets and Black Sea production prospects continuing to dictate direction. While global wheat supply expectations remain broadly comfortable, persistent dryness in parts of Europe and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could still inject periods of volatility as Northern Hemisphere harvest approaches.

Malting Barley

After a long weekend of hot dry weather across the UK which has continued into this week, we see stressed spring barley crops with aborted tillers and crop losses.  Weather across wider Europe is also hot and dry.

Key Factors:

• We have seen continued hot dry weather across the UK over the weekend, and the dryness is forecast to persist throughout the remainder of this week and into the weekend, although temperatures look to be cooling a little into next week.  On the back of the dry weather, we hear reports of stressed spring barley crops and crop losses. 
• Farmer selling remains absent from the market for a further week and looks set to continue until they see how the crops develop into the harvest period.
• Maltsters remain absent from the market and have not been prompted by the dry weather to re-enter with any demand and are still comfortable with the supply.
  
  

Outlook
In the short-term prices are supported by the continued dry weather and lack of farmer selling and prices have firmed this week.  Although, overall, the outlook for malting barley remains uncertain, with the flip side being the lack of demand and comfortable supply across the wider EU market.

Feed Barley

Old crop feed barley is flat with very little trade as attention shifts to new crop, while ongoing heat stress in spring crops is raising yield concerns and keeping farmer selling slow.

Key Factors:

• Old crop feed barley prices are flat and there is little trade to report, and the market is moving its attention onto new crop.
• Warm conditions continue to cause some concern for the spring crop, which has had a stressful growing season to date, and yield cuts are much discussed. Farmer selling is slow as a result, which is keeping the inactive. We do not see much activity now before harvest when hopefully liquidity picks up.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop prices are likely to remain rangebound through to the end of the season. New crop values will continue to follow wheat prices until we see greater liquidity on physical trade.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets traded with a firmer undertone this week despite continued macro volatility and weakness in energy markets. Soybeans are trying to stay optimistic from US/China Tariff talks, though positive weather is also in the focus. Crude oil saw significant two-way trade as geopolitical tensions fluctuated, injecting volatility into veg oils. Canadian canola maintained its bullish structure on delayed planting concerns, while MATIF rapeseed continued to consolidate near recent highs with technical resistance still limiting further upside momentum.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans traded back towards support this week, as energy markets lead lower alongside positive weather prospects. The market continues to react positively to recent trade discussions between the U.S. and China, with hopes tariffs could ease. Strong crush margins, currently near record highs, continue to underpin the complex and support nearby demand for meal and oil. South American fundamentals remain mixed; Argentina’s harvest continues to outperform expectations with yields at multi-year highs, while Brazilian export estimates edged slightly lower week-on-week. Technically, beans remain within a range.
• Energy markets remained extremely volatile throughout the week with crude oil experiencing sharp intraday reversals driven by ongoing negotiations surrounding the Strait and wider Middle Eastern tensions. Reports out of Iran have raised hopes towards some form of resolution, though we continue to see disagreements between both sides. Despite this correction, vegetable oils remained relatively resilient, facing a more controlled fall than crude. Palm oil production data from Indonesia showed lower monthly output, although rising stock levels limited upside enthusiasm. Overall, the veg-oil market continues to take direction from both crude and geopolitical headlines.
• Canadian canola futures continued to outperform this week with nearby contracts pushing toward fresh contract highs. Delayed planting progress across the Prairies remains a key supportive factor, with Saskatchewan and Alberta both significantly behind their respective five-year averages. The trade remains increasingly sensitive to any further weather disruptions heading into June. Fund positioning also remains supportive despite some evidence of minor long liquidation earlier in the week. Technically, November futures continue to trade with a bullish bias and are attempting to break out above major congestion resistance around the CAD $768 level. A convincing close above resistance could trigger another leg higher and encourage additional momentum buying from speculative trade.
• MATIF rapeseed maintained its upward trend overall but continues to encounter heavy resistance near recent highs. Front month futures gained ground earlier in the week before consolidating into a tighter technical range. The market remains supported by strength in Canadian canola and generally firm veg-oil values, although weaker crude oil prices limited upside follow-through. From a chart perspective, rapeseed remains trapped within recent congestion, with the market needing a convincing close above key resistance levels to encourage fresh technical buying and confirm a breakout from the current range-bound pattern.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain highly headline driven with traders continuing to monitor developments surrounding US/China trade relations, energy markets and Northern Hemisphere weather. Canadian planting progress and Prairie moisture forecasts will remain critical for canola direction, while MATIF rapeseed continues to take guidance from both canola and broader veg-oil strength. Soybeans should remain supported by strong crush economics and the prospect of renewed Chinese demand, although volatility is expected to stay elevated across the entire oilseed complex.

Oats

The UK oat market continues to trade quietly, with activity remaining subdued as the season draws to a close. Buyer engagement has been limited, while growers also appear reluctant sellers, resulting in a thin and largely inactive market. Firm feed barley prices continue to provide underlying support to oat values, helping to maintain the feed floor despite demand failing to develop in any significant volume. Attention remains firmly focused on weather conditions, which continue to shape market sentiment. Although parts of the UK received some much-needed rainfall this week, concerns persist over crop development and overall yield potential following the prolonged dry spell. Until there is greater clarity around production prospects, the market is expected to remain cautious with little appetite for aggressive positioning.

Key Factors:

• Market liquidity remains limited, with muted buyer interest continuing to be offset by restricted grower selling.
• Dry conditions across large areas of the UK are maintaining concerns around crop stress and yield potential, although growing conditions in Spain remain comparatively favourable following improved moisture levels.
• Elevated feed barley values continue to lend support to oat prices, though stronger feed demand has yet to materialise.
  
  

Outlook
Nearby old-crop values are showing modest signs of firming as tighter spot availability begins to emerge, although overall buying interest remains subdued. Looking further ahead, market sentiment retains a cautiously supportive tone, underpinned by firm feed grain markets and ongoing uncertainty surrounding new-crop production potential.

Longer term, unless oat prices improve sufficiently to enhance grower margins, there is an increasing risk that acreage may shift towards alternative crops offering more competitive returns.

Pulses

Whilst the weather across the UK has been glorious from a personal perspective, we could do with additional rainfall over the coming weeks to help the bean crop to keep pushing on and make some positive progress. Winter beans are holding up well in these conditions, although the smaller plant size of both spring beans and peas mean they are showing some signs of stress with the lack of moisture. New crop trade is thin, with prices still primarily reflecting the movements in London Feed Wheat futures whilst the trade waits for the crop to be more established before committing to push volume one way or the other.

Key Factors:

• Old crop bean markets are seeing a firming of sentiment into the end of season, mainly driven by low liquidity as we enter the closing months of the season. Activity remains slow and steady, although beans are still out there and steadily coming forward. The recent pop in prices because of this low liquidity are rationing fresh demand, and potentially even turning off some established demand. It is certainly worth growers looking to place any remaining old crop beans sooner rather than later and capitalising on these firmer values.
• New crop beans are making decent progress in the fields, especially winter drilled crops, holding up comparatively well compared to cereal crops in the prolonged dry spell we have experienced. More rainfall would certainly be welcome though, as spring drilled beans are looking a little sicklier, with reports of crops being shorter than normal, and even some Spring crops coming into flower despite only being 18 inches out the ground. The lower crop height is a potential yield flag, with fewer pod sites, however with further rainfall this could soon change.
• Pea crops, much like spring bean crops, are coming under stress due to the lack of rainfall. In addition to this, there are growing reports of higher levels of pest activity, notably pea moth and worryingly pea bruchid, which certainly has the potential to cause significant issues across the UK crop if it manages to get a foot hold into the arable area. Buyers are still reluctant to push their coverage further, still focussing on closing out the last of their old crop shorts.
• Ultimately, if you have any questions or concerns around your crop which is currently in the ground, it is well worth engaging with the PGRO who have a wealth of agronomic resources available to levy payers. If you would like sign posting to these, please reach out to your farm trading representative who will happily sign post you to where to access it.
  
  

Outlook
Pulse markets remain weather-driven, with timely rainfall over the coming weeks critical to stabilising Spring Bean and Pea yield potential after prolonged dry conditions. Winter Beans continue to outperform, although trade activity remains cautious as buyers await clearer crop prospects. Old crop values should stay supported by tight nearby liquidity, while pest pressure and crop development will remain key watchpoints heading into summer.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

This coming season brings a wave of opportunities across OSR and winter cereals, with strong market drivers and exciting new varieties shaping decisions.

Key Factors:

• Winter OSR: OSR continues to deliver one of the strongest gross margins on farm, making it a key crop to consider in rotations this autumn. Alongside its financial performance, OSR provides valuable agronomic benefits, reducing grassweed pressure, breaking cereal disease cycles and improving soil structure. Success starts with choosing the right variety. Our ADM portfolio is carefully selected for yield, oil content, disease resistance and strong agronomic traits. Explore our top picks in the ADM Seed Catalogue.
•  OSR Establishment Scheme: To support growers and reduce early‑season risk, ADM offers an internal Establishment Scheme across a selection of our highest‑performing varieties. This helps to manage risk and achieve the highest possible output.

• Winter Wheat: Several exciting new varieties are entering the market this year. Sparkler brings the joint‑highest Septoria tritici resistance rating within the Group 4 feeds. LG Defiance offers a yellow rust rating of 8 with consistently strong yields across regions. KWS Fowlmere stands out for its exceptionally early maturity, helping growers spread and manage harvest workload more effectively.
• Small Seeds: Demand for small seeds is building as growers plan for spring and summer drilling. Whether it’s grass leys, environmental mixtures, game cover or something else, get in touch with your ADM Farm Trader to secure your standard/ bespoke mix.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, the outlook remains positive, with strong varietal performance and stable demand in the market. Timely decision‑making and early engagement will be key to securing the best options and maximising opportunities this season.

Fertiliser

Ammonia

Global ammonia markets remain structurally tight, with last week’s failed IPL tender reinforcing the lack of available prompt supply at commercially workable levels. 

Key Factors: 

• Last week’s IPL ammonia tender was ultimately scrapped after receiving offers for less than half of the requested volume, highlighting the ongoing shortage of available tonnes in the global market. 
• The gap between buyer expectations and seller pricing remains significant, underlining how elevated replacement values have become across East of Suez markets. 
• The tender result has reinforced broader market sentiment that the global ammonia balance remains structurally short despite some softening in adjacent nitrogen markets such as urea and nitrates. 
• Attention is now shifting toward whether IPL returns with a revised or fresh tender in the coming weeks, which would likely provide another important indication of true market clearing levels. 
• Supply flexibility remains limited due to ongoing regional outages, constrained Middle East availability and reduced prompt spot liquidity. 
• Demand across East of Suez markets remains persistent, particularly from India and wider Asian buyers competing for limited cargoes. 
• While softer sentiment has emerged in parts of the wider nitrogen complex, ammonia continues to trade independently due to its significantly tighter underlying supply fundamentals. 
  
  

Outlook 
Ammonia markets are expected to remain under upward pressure in the near term. The failed IPL tender has reinforced how limited global prompt supply remains, and unless meaningful additional availability emerges, sellers are likely to maintain firm pricing expectations across key import regions. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

European nitrate markets continue transitioning into new season positioning, while uncertainty persists around UAN pricing direction. 

Key Factors: 

• European nitrate markets continue absorbing new season CAN offers issued last week by Yara and LAT, helping establish clearer pricing structure for summer business. 
• Additional LAT Nitrogen AN offers for late summer and early autumn delivery have also entered the market, further contributing to price discovery ahead of the next application cycle. 
• Market participants are gradually engaging with these levels, though underlying demand remains relatively measured and cautious. 
• UAN pricing direction remains far less certain, with producers and buyers both closely monitoring developments in the wider nitrogen complex. 
• Sentiment in urea markets continues to play a major role in shaping UAN expectations, particularly given substitution dynamics and relative nutrient economics. 
• At the same time, continued upward pressure on natural gas and ammonia costs is maintaining elevated production economics for nitrate producers across Europe. 
• These input cost pressures are limiting the potential for meaningful downside in producer pricing despite relatively subdued seasonal demand. 
  
  

Outlook
European nitrate markets are expected to remain broadly stable as the market continues absorbing new season CAN and AN offers. UAN direction remains more uncertain, with pricing likely to remain heavily influenced by developments in urea sentiment alongside ongoing strength in gas and ammonia costs. 

Urea

India returns with fresh tender demand while China reopens exports at historically high price floors. 

Key Factors: 

• China has reopened its urea export window, with producers receiving quota allocations and new price floors set at $660/t FOB for prilled urea, $670/t FOB for granular grade and $680/t FOB for prills destined for India. 
• The first-round allocation is estimated at around 3 Mt, significantly larger than last year’s initial 2 to 2.4 Mt allocation, but the much higher price floors reflect the tighter global market since the Middle East conflict began.
•  China’s return adds potential supply relief, but at these floor levels it is unlikely to be aggressively bearish for global pricing.
•  Domestic Chinese urea prices have already rebounded following the export allocation announcement, reversing recent weakness as downstream buying interest improved. 
• India’s NFL has issued a fresh 1.7 Mt import tender for shipment by 20 July, with offers due 8 June. 
• The tender calls for 800,000 t to the east coast and 900,000 t to the west coast, with suppliers required to declare origin, loading port and any loading restrictions. 
• The origin requirement remains important given continued sensitivity around Arab Gulf logistics and recent disruption to Middle East supply chains. 
• Egypt has softened this week, with some producers targeting around $700/t FOB compared with $730 to $750/t FOB last week, although activity has been heavily curtailed by the Eid holiday. 
• Previous Egyptian trades remain much higher, with NCIC reportedly selling 5,000 t at $860/t FOB and earlier business at $865/t FOB Adabiya, highlighting how thin and uneven price discovery remains. 
  
  

Outlook
China’s export reopening provides additional supply, but elevated price floors limit the bearish impact. India’s fresh 1.7 Mt NFL tender should provide the next major directional signal, while Egyptian softness may prove temporary if Indian demand absorbs available tonnes at firm levels. 

Phosphates

Global phosphate markets remain fundamentally tight, though affordability pressure is increasingly slowing spot activity and price momentum. 

Key Factors: 

• Global DAP and MAP spot market activity is expected to remain relatively subdued this week as buyers become increasingly cautious at elevated pricing levels. 
• While the supply side remains exceptionally tight, affordability concerns are beginning to materially slow both purchasing activity and the pace of further price increases. 
• India, the key global DAP import market, recently secured commitments for around 1.3 Mt under its latest tender, leaving importers primarily focused on vessel booking and allocation rather than fresh purchasing. 
• The large Indian procurement programme has temporarily reduced immediate spot demand, helping calm some short-term market momentum.
•  Brazil, the key MAP import market, continues to show very limited appetite for fresh business due to poor affordability and tightening credit conditions. 
• Brazilian MAP prices have now remained broadly unchanged for more than a month following an aggressive 42% rally during the first four months of the year.
•  In the US, phosphate prices continue to move higher, though domestic benchmarks remain below prevailing international levels. 
• The disconnect between US and international pricing continues encouraging some market participants to evaluate re export opportunities where logistics allow.
•  Despite softer activity levels, the broader market remains structurally tight due to ongoing Chinese export restrictions, constrained Saudi logistics and elevated sulphur and ammonia costs. 
  
  

Outlook
Phosphate markets are expected to remain fundamentally supported, though affordability concerns are increasingly acting as a brake on fresh buying activity. Supply remains exceptionally constrained globally, but slower demand from India and Brazil may temporarily stabilise price momentum in the near term. 

Potash

Potash markets remain broadly stable as tighter supply is increasingly offset by concerns around future demand destruction. 

Key Factors: 

• Global potash prices remained broadly stable this week, with limited fresh directional momentum across most regions. 
• The recently concluded India contract settlement at $383/t CFR failed to provide any significant additional boost to market sentiment despite representing a higher year on year benchmark. 
• Similarly, Pupuk’s tender for 20,000 tonnes of standard MOP generated little market reaction, reflecting relatively balanced short term fundamentals. 
• Supply availability remains relatively tight in several regions, supported by ongoing logistical constraints and disciplined supplier positioning. 
• However, market participants are increasingly focused on the potential for demand destruction during the second half of the year. 
• Rising fertiliser costs across nitrogen and phosphates are beginning to pressure overall farm budgets, even though potash remains comparatively more affordable. 
• Buyers in several regions are becoming more cautious around forward commitments at current levels, particularly where crop economics remain under pressure. 

• Supplier sentiment remains relatively firm, though the market currently lacks a strong catalyst for aggressive upward movement. 
  
  

Outlook
Potash markets are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term. Tight supply continues to provide support, but growing concerns around second half demand destruction are limiting upside momentum. The market remains balanced for now, with future direction likely to depend on how demand evolves across key agricultural regions through summer and early autumn. 

Offers

We currently have Urea available in the Sep–Dec window and will keep pushing at current levels while they remain available. 

We have also now purchased more Piamon, and we have 27N 12SO₃ to offer, so please keep pushing both products. Momentum has been good and we want to keep that moving. 

On liquids, we expect to see Yara today, which may bring renewed interest into that market. We are also now happy to offer our own liquid position into the open market. 

One further point to keep front of mind is Fibrophos. This continues to look like a bigger opportunity, particularly as a product that can positively affect grower margins. We have already had some excellent success this year with both new and existing accounts, so please mention it where you can. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1543	1.3425	1.1626

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
May26	154-163	182-190	220-230	475-485