Market reports

Wheat

Wheat and corn markets have been whipsawed by shifting fundamentals, with record U.S. corn yields and production pressuring prices to fresh contract lows, while strong export demand offers limited downside potential. Soybeans have rallied on reduced acreage, while European wheat remains subdued despite tighter global exporter stocks and spot squeezes in nearby physical markets.

Key Points

• USDA shocker: Record U.S. corn yields at 188.8bu/ac and a 2m acre increase pushed production to all-time highs, lifting ending stocks to a seven-year peak and sending CBOT corn to contract lows.
• Soybeans diverge: A 2.4m acre cut in U.S. soybean area outweighed yield gains, tightening stocks and triggering sustained gains, with bulls seeking protection against further tightening.
• Wheat caught in the crossfire: Despite mildly bullish global wheat S&D—exporter stocks at decade lows—wheat tracked corn lower, with CBOT and European contracts breaking key technical support.
• Europe sluggish: MATIF and London wheat hit new lows as heavy fund shorts rolled forward, Russian and Ukrainian exports remain slow, and spot premiums do the heavy lifting in physical trade.
• Exports a backstop: U.S. corn and wheat remain the cheapest global FOB origins, spurring strong sales that could temper further downside, though large Southern Hemisphere crops loom.
  
  

Outlook
Near-term grain price action is likely to remain choppy as markets digest the USDA’s record corn numbers and shifting U.S. acreage mix. Strong U.S. export competitiveness offers some floor support, but abundant supplies cap rallies, with upcoming Pro Farmer crop tour findings and Black Sea export pace key to fresh direction.

Malting Barley

Malting markets remain quiet as harvest delays limit new information. Spring barley quality is variable but mostly within spec, although low Nitrogen is in short supply. Slow demand is capping any potential premium gains.

Key Factors

• For yet another week, malting markets are without significant activity. As the harvest paused for the rains, as did the flow of fresh information about the crop and as a result both buyers and sellers remain disengaged, waiting to see the full picture before making the next move.
• Spring barley results are once again variable from a yield and quality perspective, however the average of sample results falls inside a standard brewing spec. We are starting to see some weather impact on the later harvested crop.
• Low Nitrogen is scarce, which should support premiums for distilling grades despite slow demand.
• Demand from both brewing and distilling markets is slow, and unless this situation changes, we wouldn’t expect to see significant upside in premiums, even with a variable crop.
  
  

Outlook
Malting prices are likely to remain stable in the short term, as the market continues to pick through incoming harvest data to get a complete picture of the crop. We expect in the medium to long term, there could be further pressure to premiums unless demand turns around significantly with a healthy surplus in Europe.

Feed Barley

Harvest is nearly complete with variable spring yields. Markets stay supported despite limited consumer demand and slow exports, on a lack of farmer selling.

Key Factors

• Harvest is progressing well with a significant improvement in harvest conditions, and by the end of the week this season’s barley crop should be in the barn. Yield results for the incoming spring crop remain wildly variable.
• Nearby feed barley markets have remained supported over the last week, despite falling futures markets, driven by spot shorts and slow farmer selling. Although we have seen an improvement in spot availability as harvest resumes.
• Consumer demand is muted, with other products stealing the limelight as traders offer higher basis levels to limit demand, cautious of low liquidity.
• Export markets are slow. Similarly to the domestic market, spot shorts have supported nearby FOB prices, but the UK is not making sales due to lack of logistical supply. In several destination markets, feed barley is now trading at a premium to both corn and feed wheat, which will cap demand potential as we head into the season.
  
  

Outlook
We expect prices to remain supported in the short term as shorts continue to chase requirements, however outside of the spot position demand is slow and deferred basis values could feel some pressure when farmer selling resumes. Flat prices, as always, will remain at the mercy of global macro markets.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets navigated a choppy week as traders balanced bullish USDA surprises with shifting geopolitical risks. Soybeans rallied on lower-than-expected US ending stocks, while ongoing concerns around Chinese demand kept a cap on gains. Crude oil remained under pressure amid demand concerns and rising supply forecasts. Canadian canola saw volatile swings after China imposed a hefty import duty, prompting rapid price recalibration. MATIF rapeseed took back losses, buoyed by the wider veg oil complex and positioning against competitive Canadian seed flows.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans enjoyed their strongest run since early July, gaining on USDA data showing lower-than-expected new crop stocks despite a modest yield increase. The surprise came from reduced harvested acres, tightening the balance sheet. Political noise – including Trump’s comments asking China to quadruple US imports – added speculative fuel. Prices pushed through technical resistance, with momentum supported by meal strength, though Chinese demand uncertainty remains a cap on rallies.
• The crude oil market remains on the defensive, logging multiple down sessions as the IEA lifted its global supply growth forecast. Expectations of +2.5 million bpd output this year, alongside sluggish demand projections, weighed on sentiment. Traders eye US-Russia and US-China talks for potential shifts in crude flow dynamics, with Russian flows still uncertain. Technical charts show crude struggling to hold above key moving averages, keeping a bearish tilt intact.
• Canola saw a midweek 75.8% Chinese import duty which sent futures sharply lower as funds unloaded long positions. The selloff reset prices enough to boost domestic crush margins, prompting crushers to lock in volumes. With China now largely out of the picture for Canadian seed, the market is exploring alternative homes, including Japan and the EU. Volatility remains high, with spread action against MATIF closely watched to gauge competitiveness.

• MATIF rapeseed demonstrated resilience, showing a strong rejection from lows under €465 due to external volatility. Strength in the veg oil complex, combined with strategic positioning to absorb potential Canadian inflows, supported prices back to the level we saw previously. The MATIF/Canola spread has widened by over $20 in two days, and now is circa $10–20 away from opening Europe as a viable outlet for Canadian origin. Australian crop prospects remain favourable, but the GMO share tempers EU import appeal.
  
  

Outlook
The coming week will hinge on trade diplomacy and follow-through from the USDA report. Soybeans face a tug-of-war between tighter stocks and demand uncertainty. Crude oil’s bias stays soft unless talks shift supply expectations. Canola will test its ability to attract non Chinese buyers, while MATIF’s ability to sustain support hinges on spread competitiveness. Technical levels remain pivotal as funds reassess positioning in a headline-driven environment.

Oats

Oat markets may have found a floor price, whilst uncertainties remain about quality and production in Scandinavia.

Key Factors

• European oat markets have seen limited trade activity over the last week with millers holding out for fresh harvest data from the key export nations of Finland and Sweden.
• Prices have remained static with largely a big spread between bids and offers as suppliers are loathed to sell at these low levels in case there is a production issue, and consumers are loathed to buy given the expectation of potential harvest pressure.
• Feed oats remain largely untradeable with farmers being loathed to lock into such low prices. Bids are few and far between as importers are currently satisfying requirements with domestically supplied harvest oats.
• Here in the UK the oat harvest is expected to be largely complete in England/Wales by the end of the week. The 4^th heat wave in as many months is going to aid this harvest progress and will ensure that there are minimal mycotoxin issues.
• Quality to date is well below last year with pass rates of min 48kg max 8% screenings and max 2% admix is 66% vs 90% last year. This means there is going to be a greater supply of feed oats and with the high claims farmers could face it is likely that supplies will be fed on farm rather than making their way into the milling market.
  
  

Outlook
European milling markets still await the results of the Scandinavian harvest.

Pulses

UK pulse markets remain quiet as harvesting progress is steady, but improving weather and the completion of most cereal crops means the focus is likely to swing back to pulses. Yield averages are holding, but quality is trending lower—particularly in beans—while pea results are increasingly weather-affected. Demand remains muted, constrained by cheaper feed alternatives, although signs of renewed buying interest are emerging.

Key Factors

• As harvest progresses, we have seen a dip in bean quality and more splits and broken beans in the samples, reflecting lower harvest moistures. Moisture and staining remain acceptable, but the downtick in quality is likely to expand feed volumes.
• Domestic feed bean values are steady, but rapemeal remains over £20/t cheaper delivered, leaving beans needing a £25/t price cut to compete locally and £10/t for export parity. Interest is still largely confined to poultry buyers.
• Early Pea yields were strong but have dipped recently in line with expectations for late-season weather.
• Early cut pea crops showed good colour; later lots are exhibiting more bleaching and stress damage. The current heatwave will likely reduce soaking performance in some parcels, requiring a close watch.
• Despite a smaller planted area, EU pea yields have exceeded forecasts. Consumer interest is returning, with buyers beginning to assess availability for the new season, hinting at a potential shift in demand sentiment.
  
  

Outlook
With harvesting likely wrapped within a fortnight, attention will shift to marketing a mixed-quality crop into a market dominated by cheaper substitutes. Any sustained improvement in buyer appetite—both domestic and EU—will depend on relative pricing, quality outcomes, and the ability to differentiate from competitively priced feed alternatives.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

OSR drilling is underway across the UK, and achieving the right seedbed conditions is crucial for giving crops the best possible start. One of the key elements to successful establishment is selecting the right variety. Our expertly chosen OSR portfolio is built to perform across a wide range of drilling windows and agronomic conditions, offering growers both flexibility and dependable performance. Increasingly, some growers are also turning to companion cropping—not only to improve nitrogen but also to help deter CSFB.

Key Factors

• For growers targeting maximum yields, Maverick and Karat are standout choices, offering exceptional yield potential along with high oil content. Karat is currently a candidate variety showing strong trial performance and will be available in limited quantities this year. It is on floor ready for delivery.
• Establishment Schemes: DK Excited is included with every pack sold, while Aviron, Academic, and Hinsta are available in limited quantities. Establishment scheme varieties help to reduce risk of growing OSR.
• For fast delivery, we offer a variety of options including hybrids like DK Excited, Hinsta, and Duplo, alongside conventional varieties such as Campus and Pi Pinnacle. Convenient collection points are available at multiple locations, including Hemswell, Thriplow, York, Peterborough, and others to suit your needs.
• Companion Cropping: Using species like fenugreek and buckwheat can help deter flea beetle, while clover provides valuable nitrogen benefits. We offer both mixtures and straight seed options to suit your requirements.
• Winter Wheat – No major surprises have emerged from the AHDB results so far, with performance remaining steady and consistent across most regions. KWS Dawsum is delivering solid results, backed by dependable on-farm performance and some excellent samples. It remains a favourite among growers—and for good reason. In Group 3, KWS Solitaire is once again showing solid performance. With clean crops and consistent results across multiple sites, it continues to reinforce its reputation as a dependable soft wheat option. Looking ahead, several promising candidate varieties are gaining attention. KWS Aintree impresses with its high yield figures, while LG Defiance offers a well-rounded package featuring excellent disease resistance and strong agronomic balance.
  
  

Outlook
This season’s market presents both opportunities and challenges. Success will depend on securing quality seed, effectively managing disease pressures, and embracing the latest agronomic innovations. Growers who plan ahead and collaborate closely with trusted suppliers will be best positioned to navigate market stability and achieve strong, resilient crops in 2025/26.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
European gas steady near two-week lows as strong supply offsets weather risk; US rebounds on near-term demand uptick.

Key Factors

• EU futures hovered around €32.5/MWh, supported by robust Norwegian pipeline flows, strong LNG imports above seasonal norms, and subdued Asian demand, particularly from China.
• EU storage stood near 72% versus 87% a year ago, with Germany at 64%, Italy at 83%, and France at 80%.
• Traders are watching the 15 August Trump–Putin Alaska meeting for signs of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal that could ease sanctions on Russian energy.
• US futures rose above $2.8/MMBtu, rebounding from an eight-month low on forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks, stronger LNG flows, and tropical storm risk.
  
  

Outlook
EU prices are likely to stay rangebound near term as storage builds and supply remains strong, with weather-driven demand providing the main upside risk. In the US, short-term gains hinge on weather and storm impacts, but ample production and storage temper upside potential.

Ammonia
Tight western supply drives $70/t Tampa hike; firmness expected into Q4.

Key Factors

• August Tampa contract between Yara and Mosaic settled at $487/t CFR, up $70/t from July, reflecting continued tightness west of Suez.
• Supply constraints persist in North Africa, keeping availability limited and supporting regional benchmarks.
• East of Suez, the market remains more balanced as supply meets demand, with less upward price pressure.
  
  

Outlook
Prices west of Suez are expected to remain firm into Q4, though any easing of supply constraints could temper momentum. East of Suez stability likely holds into late August.

Nitrates and Sulphates
Summer lull weighs on prices; UK import slowdown raises Q4–Q1 availability risks.

Key Factors

• Nitrates remain under pressure as global buying interest stays weak, with the European market in its seasonal slowdown.
• Sulphates also softening, pressured by abundant Chinese supply and reduced Brazilian demand due to ongoing logistical bottlenecks.
• In the UK, limited farmer purchasing has curtailed vessel fixings, creating illiquidity in the market.
• If this trend continues, Q4 and early Q1 availability could tighten, echoing supply constraints seen in the 2024 season.
  
  

Outlook
Short-term tone remains soft, but persistent UK import gaps could flip the market tighter later in the year as grower demand returns.

Urea
India’s tender sets large purchase volume; global spot markets ease on softer sentiment.

Key Factors

• IPL issued LoIs for 2.075 Mt of urea from its 4 August tender, with 1.04 Mt to the west coast and 1.035 Mt to the east coast for shipment by 22 September.
• Low offers of $530/t CFR WCI and $532/t CFR ECI were countered to secure volumes, with acceptances initially exceeding 2.6 Mt before being cut to meet the tender scope plus a 75,000 t extension.
• Egyptian produced material was responsible for three cargoes into the tender but local producers remain operating at only 70–80% capacity due to natural-gas restrictions, keeping them in no rush to sell further.
• In the US NOLA market, activity was muted with barges trading at $435/st FOB for August and September shipment — down $25/st since the start of August — as attention shifted toward CF’s UAN fill programme.
  
  

Outlook
India’s large procurement provided a floor in the short term, but subdued activity elsewhere and seasonal demand gaps could keep the market on a softer trajectory.

Phosphates
Market steadies as buyer resistance tempers earlier gains; tight availability prevents major correction.

Key Factors

• Prices have levelled off in recent weeks following strong H1 increases, with buyers increasingly resisting higher offers.
• CFR benchmarks for MAP to Brazil and DAP to India edged slightly lower last week, reflecting reduced buying appetite at elevated levels.
• Despite softer sentiment, supply remains tight and Bangladesh’s 500,000 t DAP tender will draw further tonnes from the market.
• Any significant downside appears limited in the short term, though upside potential persists if supply constraints tighten further.
  
  

Outlook
Relative price stability is likely over the next 10 days, but the market retains an underlying bullish bias due to constrained availability and upcoming tender demand.

Potash
Muted demand keeps market flat; Asia now the focal point for producer sales.

Key Factors

• Global potash prices remain under pressure, with subdued demand in key markets keeping sentiment soft.
• Producers are pivoting toward Asia as India and China move into peak application seasons (autumn and Kharif), while Southeast Asia prepares for its tender cycle.
• Weak crop prospects are weighing on demand, though firmer palm oil prices are offering some regional support.
• No major price moves expected near term, but tender activity in Asia could provide clearer direction.
  
  

Outlook
Prices likely to hold flat to slightly weaker in the coming weeks, with Asian buying the main driver of any short-term momentum.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1595	1.3570	1.1703

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Aug25	140-150	149-169	200-210	385-395