ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Grain markets turned increasingly defensive after an early-week rally fuelled by expectations of stronger US-China agricultural trade. Wheat faced growing pressure from weak US exports, larger Southern Hemisphere crops and improving alternative Black Sea routes, while corn remained supported by potential Chinese demand but constrained by harvest progress and softer export commitments.

Key Factors:

• Markets initially rallied on expectations that China could commit to additional US corn and wheat purchases alongside its existing 25 MMT soybean commitment. However, enthusiasm faded as traders awaited firm evidence of new buying.
• Corn remained caught between uncertain yield results and weakening export demand. Trade yield estimates centred around 176–178 bpa, while 2026/27 commitments were running behind last year. Heavy managed-money length leaves prices sensitive to disappointing demand or stronger harvest results.
• US wheat exports remained well below last year, with shipments around 32% lower. Larger Argentine and Australian crop prospects added pressure, while a stronger dollar further reduced US competitiveness. Black Sea disruption remains supportive, but alternative export routes are increasingly limiting its impact.
• MATIF and London wheat weakened, with spreads widening as nearby demand remained subdued. EU origins are increasingly struggling to generate demand despite reduced Black Sea availability, while French and wider European crop estimates have been cut.
  
  

Outlook
Black Sea infrastructure and shipping remain exposed to further attacks, but tentative discussion of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire introduced fresh downside pressure. Meanwhile, international buyers are increasingly seeking reliable alternatives as export execution becomes more important than underlying grain availability.

Malting Barley

Attention continues to centre on crop quality and availability rather than outright production volumes. Across the UK, reports suggest a significant proportion of the English spring barley crop is struggling to achieve malting specification, raising questions over how much of the harvested tonnage will ultimately be accepted by maltsters. As a result, the market is increasingly looking towards Scotland and potentially imported origins to bridge any quality shortfall. Danish barley remains competitively priced, and, in some cases, alternative origins continue to compare favourably against domestic supplies. Despite these quality concerns, buying interest from maltsters remains relatively subdued. Most consumers appear comfortable with nearby cover and are showing little urgency to extend purchases, which continues to limit upside potential for malting premiums.

Elsewhere, feed grain markets remain well supported. Ongoing disruption to Black Sea barley exports have tightened available supply channels and helped maintain strength in feed values across Europe. While this is underpinning outright barley prices, it is also narrowing the premium available for malting quality grain. Logistics is another area being closely monitored. Persistently low river levels across parts of mainland Europe continue to hamper grain movement and increase freight costs, with limited rainfall forecasts suggesting these challenges are unlikely to disappear in the immediate term.

Key Factors:

• Questions over malting acceptance rates remain a major focus, particularly following mixed quality results from the English harvest.
• Scottish and imported barley may be required to supplement domestic supply should rejection rates remain elevated.
• Low water levels across key European transport routes are restricting grain movements and increasing logistical costs.
• Maltsters remain cautious buyers, with many appearing adequately covered for nearby requirements.
• Farmer selling remains selective, limiting spot market liquidity.
  
  

Outlook
The relationship between feed and malting markets remains critical. Feed barley continues to provide strong underlying support to outright prices, but until consumer demand improves it is difficult to see malting premiums widening significantly. Much will depend on final quality assessments and whether maltsters are forced to seek additional cover from alternative origins as the season progresses.

Feed Barley

The market remains quiet for yet another week. Origination is slow and prices remain strong as a result, albeit slightly softer on lower futures.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley values continue to show strength in a market that is tight on supply, however flat prices are slightly weaker in sympathy with lower futures.
• From a relative value perspective feed barley remains attractive, which should continue to support inclusion levels in animal feed rations.
• Forage availability remains a concern, with expectations for continued high levels of on-farm feeding. Origination is already becoming more challenging in ruminant regions as growers remain cautious given concerns around winter feed availability.
• Export markets continue to be uncompetitive despite destination values moving higher.
  
  

Outlook
Feed barley prices will remain exposed to global geopolitical volatility, although attractive relative value and strong FOF demand should provide underlying support to UK prices.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets have remained choppy this week, with both rapeseed and canola struggling to establish fresh highs despite several attempts. Soybeans initially rallied as traders positioned ahead of the US-China summit, before giving back much of the move as the dollar strengthened. Canola remains capped by improving Canadian supply expectations, while MATIF rapeseed continues to trade within a narrow range. Crude oil has added further volatility, with sharp moves in both directions as the market assesses changing supply and logistics risks.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans have experienced another volatile week. The US harvest is progressing slowly following recent rainfall, providing some short-term support, while Brazil continues to look well supplied. ABOVIE has increased its 2026 Brazilian ending-stock estimate by 3.1% from August, adding to the longer-term supply narrative. Chinese August imports also showed US beans losing some share to Brazil, although expectations around the US-China meeting have kept demand headlines firmly in focus. For the remainder of the week the focus will be on what progress Trump and Xi make.
• Crude has provided plenty of volatility across the vegetable oil complex. Prices initially moved lower through the week, with Brent falling sharply as indications of improved movement through the Strait of Hormuz eased some immediate supply concerns. However, Thursday saw a strong reversal, with crude gaining $4.76 from the previous close and interacting positively with moving-average support. This gives the chart a more constructive short-term appearance and could provide support to vegetable oils if the move develops further. For now, energy remains a key source of headline volatility.
• Canola has again failed to break convincingly above the $840/bushel area, with improving production expectations keeping a lid on the upside. Last week’s StatsCan figures increased both 2025/26 output and 2026/27 sowings, confirming a larger supply base than previously expected. Harvest progress is also improving as western Canada turns drier, allowing farmers to concentrate on getting crops off. Cash values remain attractive around $19/bushel for harvest delivery, although producer selling has been relatively limited. Interestingly, physical selling appears to be increasingly hedged against soyoil and meal futures, highlighting the importance of crush margins to the current market.
• MATIF rapeseed remains firmly rangebound, with repeated attempts to break higher but no sustained move through overhead resistance. European fundamentals show a relatively tight carryout, although it is gradually easing and some Ukrainian tonnage is moving slowly. Australian crop prospects continue to look favourable, providing another source of potential supply. UK crusher coverage is described as good through the remainder of 2026 and improving into Q1 2027, limiting the urgency for fresh buying. Technically, the market needs a clear break from the current range to establish the next direction.
  
  

Outlook
The next few sessions could prove important, particularly with the US-China summit providing a potential catalyst for soybeans and the wider oilseed complex. Until a decisive move occurs, rapeseed and canola are likely to remain caught in sideways consolidation, with harvest selling and crusher coverage limiting momentum. Crude oil could provide additional direction following its latest technical reversal. For rapeseed, a sustained break above €560/t would improve the technical picture, while another failure could leave the market vulnerable to further range trading.

Oats

The oat market continues to be characterised by extremely limited liquidity, with many growers focused on fulfilling existing commitments rather than actively marketing additional tonnage. Lower yields and mixed quality have left little surplus grain available, resulting in a notably quiet cash market.

At the same time, processors are beginning to look beyond harvest and position themselves ahead of the seasonal increase in demand that typically emerges during the autumn and early winter months. This has helped maintain underlying support despite relatively limited trading activity.

European logistics remain a challenge. Restricted water levels across parts of the continent are continuing to complicate the movement of imported oats, particularly from Scandinavia, and have contributed to elevated transport costs.

Feed markets are also playing an important role. Strong demand for forage and alternative feed ingredients has helped support wider grain values, creating a firmer backdrop for oats. However, with UK prices now trading around import parity, the market may struggle to move substantially higher in the short term without a fresh catalyst.

Key Factors:

• Limited farmer selling continues to restrict available market liquidity.
• Many growers are prioritising contract fulfilment following a challenging harvest.
• Processors are gradually increasing coverage ahead of stronger seasonal demand later in the year.
• Feed grain strength is supporting overall oat values and encouraging inclusion in livestock rations.
• Scandinavian imports remain an important source of potential supply for consumers.
• Broader geopolitical uncertainty continues to lend support to agricultural commodity markets.
  
  

Outlook

As harvest pressure in Scandinavia begins to fade, the market may lose one of its key sources of selling activity. Should this coincide with the expected increase in consumer demand through October and November, there is scope for prices to strengthen during the final quarter of the year.

Looking further ahead, crop economics remain a concern. Many growers continue to favour winter wheat over oats due to perceived improvements in profitability and risk profile. If oat plantings decline again for the 2027 harvest, the UK could become increasingly reliant on imported supplies to satisfy domestic demand.

Pulses

Crop availability and quality remain under assessment following a variable season, with the market still working to establish a clearer picture of the crop position. Beans continue to take some direction from London Wheat, although the relationship is becoming less direct as beans increasingly detach from the day-to-day volatility seen in the wheat market. Overall sentiment remains cautious, with underlying fundamentals beginning to have more influence on price direction.

Key Factors:

• UK domestic values remain the main reference point, with limited competitiveness for UK beans into international markets at current price levels. Export interest is therefore largely restricted to occasional, specific requirements, while competitively priced Baltic supply and continued availability from origins such as Egypt and Australia are keeping pressure on UK-origin export opportunities.
• In terms of domestic demand, it seems largely centred around the poultry sector, with consumers still very comfortable buying beans on a hand-to-mouth basis where required. However, there is currently limited appetite for forward cover, with buyers generally reluctant to commit beyond their immediate requirements. This is keeping overall demand measured and leaving the market largely focused on nearby needs.
• Attention is increasingly turning towards the next crop, with winter cereal drilling progressing and OSR looking well established across many areas. Bean establishment will follow as drilling windows open, with current soil moisture conditions providing a generally supportive backdrop. Given the importance of establishment to both crop performance and subsequent soil condition, growers will be focused on seed-bed preparation, soil indices and appropriate nutrition ahead of drilling. Ongoing uncertainty around future fertiliser costs also reinforces the importance of getting the crop off to a strong start.
• There is very little new news to report in the pea market this week, with buyers largely remaining on the sidelines and traded volumes continuing to run at subdued levels. Prices are unchanged, we are still feeling the pressure from Eastern Europe and Canada.
• Looking ahead- the market remains well supplied and demand is yet to show any meaningful improvement. With alternative origins becoming more acceptable in UK market, we would expect feed pea prices to come under pressure as sellers compete for limited demand and buyers remain reluctant to commit to significant volumes.
  
  

Outlook
PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Winter cereal drilling is now underway across the UK, with moisture finally returning to soils after a dry summer. Seed production continues at full pace, and deliveries are going out daily. Alongside cereals, drilling of cover crops and grass leys is progressing well as conditions improve.

Key Factors:

• Winter Wheat
  We have strong availability across several leading varieties, including:
  Arlington (Group 1) – A new high‑quality milling option.
  Vibe (Group 1) – A popular choice for growers seeking quality.
  Bamford (Group 3) – The market leader, widely recognised for its versatility and dependable yields.
  Defiance – A new Group 4 hard wheat with robust disease resistance

Contact your farm trader for full availability and delivery timescales.

• Winter Barley

Feed barley availability is tightening rapidly, with stocks now extremely limited. Craft remains available – a well‑established variety trusted by growers for its reliability.

• Winter Oats

Mascani continues to be the leading winter oat option, supported strongly by both growers and end users for its consistency and market acceptance.

• Winter Beans

Vespa remains our recommended winter bean variety, sitting among the highest‑yielding options on the Descriptive List.

• Hybrid Barley

KWS Inys and SY Quantock continue to be popular choices this season, offering high yields alongside the recognised hybrid advantages – strong vigour and valuable grass‑weed suppression.

• Small Seeds

Demand for small seeds remains strong. Whether you require a grass ley, SFI‑aligned mixture, cover crop, or a bespoke option, we offer a wide portfolio of mixtures and straights to suit all systems.

Outlook
Availability is expected to tighten further across key commodities and varieties. Timely booking is essential to secure requirements. As always, varietal choice should be aligned with end‑market needs, location, soil type, and seed‑bed conditions to maximise crop performance.

Fertiliser

Surging natural gas prices and Middle east instability continue to heavily impact global fertiliser markets. In Europe natural gas prices have pulled back slightly to €72/MWh on Wednesday, their lowest level since September 4^th as renewed US-Iran talks revived hopes for a diplomatic resolution. Tehran also reportedly signalled a willingness to open the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days if Washington eases military pressure.

Europe’s gas storage facilities are around 69% full, well below the 85% five-year seasonal average opening the market up to vulnerability ahead of the winter heating season.

Consequently, production curtailment continues this week, Spanish producer Fertiberia has halted ammonia and urea production at its Huelva plant which usually produces 400,000 tonnes of ammonia and 250,000 tonnes of urea. Czech group Agrofert is considering similar cuts.

Trump recently signed a Russia sanctions bill, which will give him the power to levy tariffs of up to 100% on the top five purchasers of Russian oil and gas – most significantly China and India.

CF are pulling their Nitram price later today, much earlier than usual. We expect to have a new figure next week with the figure pushed higher.

Urea
Global granular urea markets showed mixed activity, firming in certain regions while US prices retreated slightly and remained steady in the low $450’s/st dampened sentiment comes from slight easing in the energy market volatility and renewed hopes of a diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran. Mopco sold 10,000t granular urea at $535/t FOB for October shipment from Damietta to a nearby destination, the producer confirmed 21 September. Baltic Sea granular spot up $10 to $410-450/t FOB week on week.

Nitrates and Sulphates
The sulphates market maintained upward momentum largely driven by uncertainty surrounding China’s second round export quota. A reported ammonium sulphate sale into Brazil at $260/t CFR strengthened bullish sentiment, while limited spot availability in the US and Europe tightened global granular supply. Baltic ammonium nitrate availability remains exceptionally tight, heavily influenced by supply risks following recent drone attacks on Russian nitrogen facilities.

Ammonia
Global ammonia markets were mixed, with East of Suez prices tightening and Northwest Europe remaining illiquid. In Europe, although gas costs theoretically dropped slightly to roughly $833-834/t for ammonia production, producer margins remain under intense pressure. With domestic production curtailments underway, European import demand is expected to climb if natural gas prices sustain their current high and volatile levels.

Potash
Global potash markets experienced mixed pricing trends this week. Brazilian standard MOP prices continued to decline due to bearish sentiment and weak demand, as buyers are largely covered ahead of the upcoming soybean planting season. In India, MOP port inventories increased by 14% week-on-week, reaching 500,000t. Chinese domestic MOP demand remains sluggish, and inland port prices have dropped early this week due to climbing port inventories and strong imports, which were up 75% year-on-year by August.

Outlook
Near-term global nitrogen pricing will be heavily dictated by the timing and volume of India’s impending urea purchase tender. Volatile European natural gas prices and unresolved geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will continue to cast a shadow over production margins and international trade flows. Phosphate markets are bracing for further downward price pressure as demand slows, though tight global availability and persistently high sulphur prices are expected to limit the downside.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1626	1.3220	1.1367

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Sept26	176-186	198-208	235-245	465-475