ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Wheat markets remain dominated by escalating Black Sea disruption, with Russian and Ukrainian export infrastructure increasingly constrained. Futures have been volatile, but physical European markets are tightening as logistics deteriorate and quality supplies become harder to source. Demand has yet to shift decisively towards Western origins, while a stronger euro limits EU competitiveness and US weather offers a fresh source of volatility.

Key Factors:

• Geopolitical risk in the Black Sea is coming slightly more back to the fore, with attacks on ports and commercial vessels severely disrupting Russian and Ukrainian export flows, but also with more than 90% of Russia’s Azov-Black Sea export capacity reportedly offline. Russian exports are estimated at just 2.2 MMT this month, the lowest since 2010.
• Concurrently, we are seeing EU physical markets tighten. European futures remain volatile, but basis levels are strengthening as farmer selling slows, central European rail capacity is constrained, and low Danube water levels restrict logistics. Milling wheat is particularly firm, with Romanian bids showing a substantial premium to feed quality.
• Despite all this, demand switching remains limited. So far there is still little evidence of sustained demand moving from Black Sea origins towards the EU or US. However, Jordan’s latest purchase at roughly $277/t FOB Constanta highlights the sharply higher replacement cost facing importers.
• Looking west, US fundamentals are mixed. With the winter wheat harvest 96% complete and spring wheat conditions remain broadly strong, there is a lot of positive sentiment on one hand, however a growing number of independent estimates put spring wheat production below USDA expectations. US export inspections are encouraging, with shipments running ahead of last year, while the weaker dollar is improving export competitiveness.
• Corn and currency are adding their support though to domestic values in the US, with US corn finding some strength as initial Pro Farmer Crop Tour results point to weaker yields in key states, while improving export demand provides additional support. Meanwhile, EUR/USD has risen above 1.16, pressuring EU wheat competitiveness but making imports more attractive; a weaker dollar is simultaneously supportive for US exports.
  
  

Outlook
Black Sea logistics remain the dominant upside risk, with further disruption capable of forcing importers back into Western-origin markets. For now, sluggish demand switching and ample global stocks limit the upside, while a stronger euro weighs on EU exports. Attention will centre on whether Black Sea flows recover, US crop yields and the pace at which buyers return to the market.

Malting Barley

European barley harvest is well on its way to completion with a large proportion of the Scandinavian harvest now in the barn. Quality is generally good; however some reports are that yields are now slightly worse than previously expected. Demand from end consumers remains poor and this is causing malting premiums to fall as feed values rally. UK malting barley remains hard to trade with a lack of farmer selling and poor quality resulting in a lack of trade liquidity. However good yields and quality in Scotland is going to see a large supply being supplied into England this year and this will stem the rally in English malting barley prices.

Key Factors:

• Continued attacks in the Black and Azov seas continues to disrupt normal trade flows and this is providing support to EU grain prices.
• Hot dry conditions throughout Europe have resulted in low river levels and this is causing logistical issues for the supply of goods to end consumers.
• The potential adjustment to intake malting specifications by maltsters could increase the volume of grain deemed suitable for malting use.
• UK production remains highly mixed with wide yield variance across different growing regions. Consensus is for yields to be down overall by approximately 20%.
• High screenings and high nitrogen (protein) levels is currently seeing many heaps being downgraded to feed.
• Domestic UK maltsters continue to remain largely out of the market and taking the view that the UK market is too high vs other origins.
• Lack of farmer selling continues to support prices.
  
  

Outlook
The short-term price direction is likely to continue to be influenced by the Russia/Ukrainian war affecting supplies of feed grains. As a result, higher feed barley prices will support malting barley markets with a rising tide floating all boats. Looking longer term, the main area which will have the greatest impact for UK growers will be whether maltsters adjust their specs to accommodate what is available. If they do, then the market will have a lot more at its disposal.

Feed Barley

Market fundamentals remain supportive, with tight feed barley availability, steady demand, poor forage prospects, and attractive feed value offsetting limited export competitiveness.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley availability remains tight, keeping physical prices supported.
• Flat prices remain steady as demand continues to come forward, particularly with firmer futures week on week.
• The forage outlook remains poor following the dry season, which should provide additional support for FOF usage.
• Prices continue to look relatively attractive versus domestic feed ratios.
• Export opportunities remain limited, with alternative origins still pricing more competitively into Europe.
  
  

Outlook
The outlook for feed barley looks supportive, although continuing the theme of recent weeks, geopolitics and macro news will likely be the driver of any significant price action. Overall, domestic feed barley remains very wheat centric and is relatively following values closely.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets have continued to push higher this week, although the tone remains mixed. Soybeans have had a strong week, with Pro Farmer tour results highlighting weaker yield potential and further Chinese buying adding support. Canola has also seen strong volatility, while MATIF rapeseed continues to attempt a grind higher towards July highs. Crude remains relatively quiet, with shipping disruption providing support but a lack of fresh catalysts limiting momentum.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans have had a strong week, with the market breaking back above $12 as shorts were stopped out. Early Pro Farmer results have pointed towards lower pod counts and weaker yield potential, although results remain mixed as the tour progresses. Further Chinese buying has added fundamental support, with further USDA sales announced during the week. A sharply weaker US dollar has also provided an additional tailwind. Brazilian farmer selling increased as prices rallied, limiting some of the upside, but the technical picture remains constructive.
• Crude has continued to edge higher, although the market is considerably quieter than the volatility seen earlier in the summer. Brent gained support from continued slower shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with hopes of a near-term improvement fading somewhat. However, increasing Chinese crude supply and the recent rise in US stocks have provided counterweight. Technically, the market appears to be waiting for a fresh catalyst before establishing a meaningful direction, with recent price action remaining relatively rangebound.

• Canola has seen the largest swings this week, initially rallying strongly before falling $21.40 in a day, then recovering most of that loss. Improving weather and better soil moisture have encouraged yield optimism, with the Farmers Sentiment Index putting good/excellent crop conditions at 70%. Despite this, the broader technical structure remains positive. Strong volume on the latest recovery is encouraging, although the previous high around $840 remains the key resistance level to watch.
• MATIF rapeseed has continued its gradual recovery, with prices now slowly edging closer towards the July high. Seasonality has been a supportive factor, though does turn around now for the next two weeks. One of the main fundamental focuses is now European rainfall, particularly whether improved precipitation can support new crop establishment and begin to ease river logistics. The forecast is moving in the right direction, although conditions remain far from normal.
  
  

Outlook
The short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish across the oilseed complex, with soybean crop concerns and Chinese demand providing the strongest support. Both Canola and MATIF rapeseed are approaching the challenge of highs made in July. Crude remains more neutral and is likely to follow the next major headline. European rainfall and logistics will be increasingly important for rapeseed as we move towards new crop.

Oats

EU trade has seen a pickup in trade activity over the last week with several sellers taking advantage of fresh supplies coming to market because of the Scandinavian harvest. Decent crops in both Finland and Sweden should see sufficient supplies being available into the EU, however a lack of water in EU waterways is causing logistical issues and increasing domestic prices for tonnages available over land. The issues in the Black Sea continue to increase feed grain prices and this is supporting feed oat markets which in turn is helping to support milling oat prices.

Key Factors:

• Poor pass rates in the UK because of the drought is seeing a greater proportion of supplies ending up in the feed market.
• High feed grain values and a lack of forage because of the drought is increasing the inclusion of oats in farm feed rations thereby tightening free market availability.
• Small grain harvest sees many growers have ample storage space to allow them to hold onto their grain, consequentially farmer selling is poor.
• Quality indicators are currently below last season’s performance. Recent laboratory results show only 65% of samples meeting the >48kg weight and <8% screenings criteria, representing a similar pass rate to last year.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term we are likely to see grain prices to be influenced by issues surrounding the Russia/Ukraine war along with the war in Iran. A strong incentive to the upside will only add support to feed oat prices and this will in turn support milling values.Looking further forward the UK may need to prices itself at import in order to prevent any exports. Should millers be able to utilise imported oats then we will see a floor enter this market with a greater liquidity likely to lower prices.

Pulses

With almost all beans in the southern half of the UK now cut, attention is turning to the standing crop in the northern half of the UK to see how yields are fairing further north. This week has started to bring a reprieve with a cumulative rainfall of 15mm so far this week here in Lincoln. Whilst bean prices continue to track London up and down, steadily increasing availabilities will likely start to sit on prices in the coming weeks. However, in the meantime, one eye is firmly being kept on the London wheat market for guidance around where deferred values are likely to track.

Key Factors:

• Human Consumption interest remains muted on beans, with UK values comparatively unattractive for volume demand. As we have seen in previous weeks, UK beans are broadly uncompetitive against both Baltic and Australian origins into an Egyptian market which is carrying large stocks, meaning that export opportunities will be limited at best. Quality remains questionable across much of the UK growing area, with the ever-present bruchid damage again, plus high levels of broken/split beans which hamper human consumption processing. Unsurprisingly, moistures are all testing well below 15% on the samples we have received through the lab, although with the increasing rainfall, it’ll be interesting to see if this continues as more northern beans come available.
• With the recent rainfall, the depleted soil moistures will be starting to recover, albeit very slowly, and at the ideal time ahead of drilling. With attention soon turning towards the coming drilling campaign, now is a great time to engage early with the plethora of PGRO resources available to make the most of a potential pulse crop, especially with the uncertainty surrounding how the coming CBAM regulations will be applied here in the UK. With appropriate management, beans can still offer attractive yields and gross margins while providing a useful break ahead of following cereal crops.
• Turning to peas, there is very little new market news to report this week, with attention remaining on harvest progress and crop quality. Pea harvesting is complete across the UK and Europe, with yields and quality showing a mixed picture. Canada has now started harvest, with initial reports suggesting yields are slightly below expectations. A clearer view of quality will emerge as more crops are harvested and sampled.
• Global buying interest is slowly picking up, but buyers remain reluctant to commit to large volumes until there is greater certainty around quality and specification. Market activity therefore remains subdued, with both buyers and sellers taking a cautious approach.
• Near-term price direction will continue to be driven by harvest results, quality and the pace of renewed buying interest.
  
  

Outlook
As northern bean harvest progresses, rising availability is likely to weigh on prices, particularly as UK beans remain uncompetitive for export. London wheat will continue to provide guidance for deferred values, while pea markets await clearer signals from Canadian harvest results and renewed global buying. Near-term direction will hinge on crop quality, final production and the pace of buyer engagement.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Finally, some rain has hit most of the UK with more forecasted over the next week. OSR drilling has commenced for some whilst others await more moisture before they begin.  

Key Factors:

• Oilseed Rape 
  For those looking for fast delivery, we are pleased to offer a quick turnaround on Karat, Duplo, LG Atom and other varieties within our portfolio. We also have consignment stocks dotted around the UK should you wish to collect, varieties including Daymon and LG Atom to name a few.
  Winter oilseed rape continues to be one of the strongest contributors to farm profitability, and success starts with selecting the right genetics.
  
  
  ADM Agriculture’s OSR portfolio is built around:

• High output and excellent oil content
• Strong agronomic performance
• Robust disease resistance packages
  To support confidence at establishment, we offer a sale‑or‑return option on Duplo OSR, allowing customers to return up to 75% of their seed if conditions do not come right.
  
  
  Establishment schemes are also available across several leading varieties:

• LG Academic, Karat, LG Atom – via the ADM Establishment Scheme
• DK Excentric – via the Bayer Establishment Scheme
  
  
  For growers facing cabbage stem flea beetle pressure, companion cropping remains a valuable tool. Species such as fenugreek, buckwheat and berseem clover can help support establishment by creating distinct odours and canopies that may deter flea beetle activity, while also contributing to nitrogen fixation.
  
  
  
• Winter Wheat Seed
  
  KWS Scope (Group 4 Hard) is emerging as a standout option, combining:

• The stiffest straw package available in a feed wheat
• Excellent yield potential
• A strong agronomic profile
• Suitability for early drilling

KWS Aintree continues to excel with high yields across a number of trials sites. This high input, high output variety is perfect for anyone looking for a good barn filler.

Other strong performers this season include RGT Hexton and KWS Arnie, both demonstrating impeccable cleanliness throughout the year.

On the disease side, Sparkler remains a compelling option, with a septoria score of 7.2 – a key advantage given the damaging nature of septoria tritici in wheat.

• Hybrid Barley Seed
  Hybrid barleys continue to prove their value not only as a productive crop but also as a powerful agronomic tool. Its strong vigour supports weed suppression, and its deeper rooting helps maintain performance in drought‑prone seasons – a growing consideration across the UK. Varieties include Inys, SY Barnabus and SY Quantock are some of our top picks for hybrid barley, not only offering impressive yield advantages but also strong disease and agronomic packages.
  
  
• Small Seeds
  Whether you’re looking for an SFI mixture, grass ley, companion crop or something else, we are on hand to help you choosing a mix to suit your requirements. Get in touch today.
  
  

Outlook
With seed production progressing ahead of schedule and drilling decisions now coming into focus, attention will soon shift to securing timely establishment. Growers are well‑placed to move confidently into the 2026/27 season, supported by strong genetics, establishment schemes and reliable supply.

Fertiliser

Progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz has been negligible in the last week. Traffic is at a near standstill. Both the US and Iran claim to control the waterway. No negotiations are officially taking place and there are now talks of Iran prolonging the war until Donald Trump is out of office. Washington insists Tehran is running out of money, while reports of the US running out of advanced weaponry are widespread. Around 640,000/t of non-Iranian urea across 12 vessels still trapped west of Hormuz.

Private meteorologist Indian based Skymet downgraded Indias monsoon forecast to 85% of the long-period average. This downgrade assigns a 70% probability of drought for the June-September season, which could weigh heavily on agricultural outlooks.

Mexico reinstated anti-dumping duties of $149/t on Chinese ammonium sulphate imports effective August 15. This decision was finalised after it was determined previous price undercutting caused injury to the local industry.

EU Natural Gas reaching €64/MWh again this week.

Urea
India’s RCF originally received offers totalling 5.54 Mt for the 1.7 Mt of Urea it was seeking in last week’s tender. It’s now understood that they have received acceptances totalling 1.88 Mt, indicating that they received enough viable offers to slightly exceed their original procurement goal. Chinese prilled urea is projected to take up the lion’s share of the tender (Around 1.2 Mt or 60-65%). Any potential policy shift, customs inspection delay, or export bottleneck represents likely the largest upside volatility risk in Q3. International Urea prices experienced a noticeable rebound on Tuesday largely driven by a renewed burst of liquidity in North Africa. Algeria FOB levels moving up by $ 10-15 t on the week.

Nitrates and Sulphates
The global nitrate and sulphate markets are currently experiencing a subdued period, driven by a combination of seasonal disinterest and regional climate challenges. In Europe, low river levels and drought conditions have slowed both supply and demand for NS products. Despite this European benchmark prices have remained relatively flat. In China, ammonium sulphate export prices have continued to soften as buyers push for lower levels in line with softening global urea prices. With the US market out of season and India’s major urea tender concluded, attention across the nitrogen sector is shifting as buyers look to gauge broader market direction and question the fair value for Nitrogen.

Ammonia
The global ammonia market continues to display an east-west divergence primarily shaped by European energy costs and geopolitical disruption. In Northwest Europe ammonia discussions firmed as feedstock pressures intensify with European Natural Gas Climbing back to over €64/Mwh.  Alongside this, heatwaves across Europe have accelerated gas-fired power demand for air-conditioning, these factors are slowing the rate at which inventory can be replenished and leaving storage levels under pressure ahead of the winter heating season. On the East side of the Suez, we see softening spot prices thanks to China’s domestic market being oversupplied and Hormuz complications simultaneously creating supply constraints in the west, but trapping excess supply at the export hubs, prompting downward pressure on middle eastern FOB prices.

Phosphates

The global phosphates market is closely monitoring South Asian demand this week, with attention focused on Bangladesh’s tender. Bangladesh’s Ministry of Agriculture issued a private-sector tender on August 3 to import 500,000/t of DAP, 200,000/t of TSP and 250,000/t of MOP. The tender closed 18^th August with cargo shipment required within 45 days of winning bids receiving the award. The tender arrives as global phosphate prices remain elevated due to sulphur supply constraints and restricted Chinese exports. Bangladesh has been diversifying its supply sources, including a potash supply deal with Russia signed in June. Despite exceptionally high raw-material sulphur costs and tight global supply, some sellers appear to be under pressure to reduce offers to generate liquidity.

Potash
Major suppliers have reported record second-quarter sales and subsequently raised their profit/sales forecast for the rest of H2, aided by earlier demand across Asia and Brazil caused by strong affordability relative to other nutrients and pre-emptive buying and stockpiling. In China port inventories have swelled to approximately 3.68Mt late last week according to local sources.

Outlook
Those with a bearish outlook will cite a near term demand vacuum following the conclusion of India’s major purchasing tender. Combined with heavy Chinese export availability, swelling inventories and recent downward NOLA price reaction. There is an argument that global prices could struggle to find momentum, expecting them to stay flat or weaken as excess supply seeks a home.

The bullish argument hinges on persistent supply risks, the ongoing geo-political gridlock in the Strait of Hormuz continues to trap critical shipments with next to no export ability for middle eastern producers. Surging European gas prices are keeping upward pressure on production costs and relatively attractive buying levels established post-India tender could spark opportunity for procurement in other regions.

UK CBAM is to begin 1st January 2027. We expect a larger Q4 demand as farmers bid to avoid the tax. This could see Q1 demand brought forward to exacerbate the already tight supply situation of Nitrogen fertilisers.

June import statistics are reporting Nitrogen imports are back 11% on 2025 and 34% behind June 2024. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1650	1.3607	1.1677

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Aug26	171-181	184-199	225	460-470