Market Reports

Wheat

Wheat markets turned sharply lower amid easing geopolitical risk, improving US weather and rising global supply expectations, despite ongoing volatility in energy and currencies. A fragile Middle East ceasefire briefly calmed oil markets, while strong exports and tightening crop conditions offered limited support against broadly bearish macro and fundamental pressures.

Key Factors:

• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove extreme volatility across energy and grains. Oil surged above $110/barrel before retreating below $100 on ceasefire news, dragging wheat lower as risk premium unwound, though instability persists and continues to influence inflation, currencies and commodity flows.
• US wheat prices fell heavily, pressured by improved rainfall forecasts across the Southern Plains and easing drought concerns. This reduced the weather premium, particularly in Kansas markets, outweighing supportive factors such as solid export performance and declining winter wheat condition ratings.
• Global supply expectations turned more bearish, with Russian wheat production revised higher and Black Sea export offers remaining competitive. This reinforced ample supply outlooks and capped rallies, while early demand for new crop continues to favour lower-priced origins.
• European markets weakened significantly, with MATIF wheat falling to multi-week lows amid a stronger euro and declining crude oil. French wheat remains uncompetitive export-wise, with large carryover stocks and widening spreads signalling ongoing pressure to discount into global markets.
• Fund positioning shows signs of shifting sentiment. Although money managers had built sizeable long positions across grains, recent price declines and macro shifts have triggered liquidation, suggesting the bullish phase may be short-lived and increasing the risk of further downside volatility.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitics, currency swings and weather developments. While improved crop prospects and ample supply weigh on prices, ongoing conflict risk and input cost uncertainty could reintroduce volatility. Attention now turns to upcoming USDA data and whether the ceasefire holds, with short-term direction likely choppy and reactive.

Malting Barley

Markets have entered a phase of inertia over the last week caused by a complete lack of bids from both the brewers and maltsters. The expectation of another comfortable balance sheet combined with poor demand sentiment is causing a reluctance to trade. In contrast feed markets continue to be supported by strong demand as a replacement to other feed stuff commodities and with yields expected to be hampered by reduced fertiliser applications it is possible that feed barley prices stay elevated for the short to medium term. If this happens, we could continue to see low malting barley premiums.

Key Factors:

• High stocks and ample old crop supplies is resulting in zero old crop and Aug-Dec demand in the UK.
• Good planting conditions over the last few weeks has seen the completion of the English spring barley crop, with Scotland not far behind.
• Crop 2026/27 demand is estimated by the Maltsters’ Association of Great Britain (MAGB) to be 1.4Mmt, however of this it is estimated that between 300-400kmt are will be carried over from previous crop years. This will leave approximately only 1Mmt of demand to cover and would represent a 25-30% reduction vs previous years or a loss in ~500kmt of demand.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, old crop malting markets remain hard to find, and growers are more likely to get better prices as feed, but for the medium to long term prospects for malting premiums to stay low is currently more likely. However, the crop is yet to be harvested and so mother nature could help turn the tide.

Feed Barley

Markets are ticking up slightly, with tightening availability heading into the end of the season lending support to old crop barley even as export demand softens. New crop values continue to track futures while favourable planting conditions keep gains measured.

Key Factors

• Markets have ticked up slightly week on week, as farmer selling slows with attention turning to fieldwork and spring drilling, while the end of the marketing season approaches and stocks are dwindling.
• Export demand remains fairly quiet, with ongoing freight challenges still weighing on trade. Prices into Ireland are down around €4 week on week.
• New crop prices have followed futures higher, although some of those gains have eased after news of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, however the market is still uncertain on how long that will hold which is keeping the attitude risk-off.
• Strong planting progress and favourable weather are easing supply concerns, which is limiting how much barley prices can push higher on their own. We are currently not calculating into export demand for new crop.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop values are expected to remain within a steady range as the marketing season nears its end, with little indication of significant downside pressure. New crop pricing will continue to take direction from wider macroeconomic and geopolitical influences unless we see a weather event take over which will affect barley specifically.

Rapeseed

Ag markets traded a choppy, headline-driven week, with macro sentiment dictating direction. Early strength in energy on geopolitical risk quickly reversed as ceasefire developments and OPEC+ supply increases pressured crude, dragging the wider oilseed complex lower. Currency moves, particularly a firmer EUR/USD added another layer of volatility. Overall, markets remain rangebound, with technical levels and fund positioning guiding short-term direction more than fresh supply and demand inputs.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans have continued to consolidate within a defined sideways range. Support from a weaker USD helped underpin prices midweek, while solid export inspections offered some reassurance on demand. However, the complex remains capped by South American supply, with the Brazilian harvest progressing at 82%, only marginally behind last year. Meal followed a similar path, while soyoil diverged—initially supported by crude before reversing sharply as energy markets sold off. From a technical standpoint, beans are holding within a broader consolidation pattern, with funds reluctant to build length ahead of the USDA S&D which is due this week.
• Crude has been the primary driver of volatility across the oilseed space this week. Prices initially tested the $110/barrel level on spot brent on geopolitical risk premiums but reversed aggressively following ceasefire developments and confirmation of increased OPEC+ output quotas (+206,000 bpd). A sharp gap lower set the tone, with further downside as optimism around supply routes returned. That said, the market remains highly reactive to headlines, with underlying tensions still unresolved.
• Canola has come under sustained pressure this week, breaking out of its recent tight $15 range to the downside. The move was largely externally driven, with weaker crude and broader macro sentiment triggering a wave of farmer selling once key psychological levels gave way. This has compounded losses, with the market struggling to find support. Despite this, underlying veg oil demand and previously strong crush margins remain supportive longer term.
• MATIF rapeseed has shown relative resilience but ultimately followed the wider complex lower, coming lower in line with energy markets on ceasefire news. The move represents a pullback towards key trendline support levels around €495–€489, which are now critical to hold. A stronger EUR/USD has added pressure, reducing EU competitiveness on the global stage. Despite the correction, the broader uptrend is not yet invalidated, though momentum has clearly slowed. Price action suggests a market transitioning from bullish to more neutral territory, with technical support zones now under scrutiny.
  
  

Outlook
Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to macro headlines, particularly in energy and currency markets. For oilseeds, the focus shifts back to core fundamentals, including the upcoming USDA data and South American harvest progression. Crude direction will remain pivotal for veg oil pricing, while technical levels across canola and rapeseed will guide near-term trade. Expect continued rangebound, volatile conditions, with limited conviction until a clearer fundamental driver emerges.

Oats

The oat trade is in a post Easter lull period with most millers awaiting the next flush of demand from retail customers before looking to take any additional old crop top ups or fresh new crop purchases. The rally in commodity prices caused because of the Iran war is not being directly transferred to oat markets as buyers see oats less impacted by wheat prices and more impacted by oat S&D fundamentals. However, high fertiliser abd high fuel prices combined with low oat values will start to reduce oat plantings as growers look for better gross margin crops. Planted area reductions are already expected in the key exporting nations of Scandinavia and the UK, and this increases the pressure on good yields from the crops that have been planted.

Key Factors:

• Limited buying pressure is helping to prevent any real nearby price rally; however, this is offset by minimal farmer selling therefore prices remain largely unchanged.
• Low oat prices are seeing increased demand from the UK livestock sector with compounders looking to take advantage of relatively cheap oat prices vs barley.
• High fertiliser costs are making growers question whether they should continue to plant crops that are not yet in the ground.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, old crop prices are reliant on additional demand to help push priced higher, but in the medium to long term values will be determined by new crop production.

Pulses

Weather conditions across the UK over the past week have remained variable, combining largely dry spells with intermittent strong winds. Overall, this has been favourable for fieldwork, helping to dry remaining wet areas and allowing steady progress toward wrapping up the spring drilling campaign in the near term. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to sit in the background, with markets cautiously monitoring the fragile ceasefire and looking ahead to upcoming diplomatic discussions later this week between the US and Iran in Pakistan.

Key Factors:

• Pulse markets have seen another relatively subdued week, with little change in direction. Old crop bean prices remain firm but continue to appear uncompetitive when compared to alternative protein sources in feed rations, maintaining a consistent premium of around £30–35/mt over products such as rapeseed meal and soybean meal further forward. As noted in recent reports, the overall supply and demand balance remains broadly aligned, and the market continues to function without significant disruption.
• Favourable weather conditions have supported good progress in the field, and with the outlook remaining positive, the spring bean drilling campaign is expected to conclude within the next couple of weeks. For growers still finalising cropping decisions, beans remain an attractive option – particularly given their ability to fix nitrogen, which can help reduce fertiliser requirements for following wheat crops. In addition to cost benefits, beans contribute to soil health and offer environmental advantages, including support for pollinators during flowering. Our Pool remains open for additional tonnage, alongside other contracting opportunities. These options can help manage exposure in what is often a relatively thin and volatile market, providing a more structured approach to marketing.
• The pea market continues to lack clear direction, with limited momentum on either side. Sellers holding long positions are generally reluctant to move at current price levels, while nearby demand remains largely satisfied. Some increased trade activity between Canada and China has provided a degree of support to the global market. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East are contributing to higher freight costs, which could begin to weigh on demand. Additionally, tighter conditions in energy markets are raising concerns about potential impacts on production, which may influence raw material demand over time.
• From a pricing perspective, there has been minimal movement week-on-week, with values across both UK and European markets holding steady. Most sellers remain focused on fulfilling existing contracts, while buyers are yet to show urgency in covering additional forward positions ahead of the new crop. Planting conditions in the UK remain broadly favourable, although growers without forward sales may encounter more limited opportunities to secure demand. In this context, alternatives such as linseed contracts continue to offer flexibility and may be worth considering within spring cropping plans.
  
  

Outlook
The market is likely to continue in a steady holding pattern in the near term, with limited price volatility and a broadly balanced supply and demand outlook. Focus will remain on the final stages of spring drilling and any changes in buyer engagement as the new crop approaches. Geopolitical developments and elevated freight costs may begin to influence demand, while trends in the energy sector will remain an important factor to watch for wider market implications.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As we near the end of the spring cereal drilling period and begin to turn attention towards other crop options, including maize establishment and autumn planning, seed demand and availability are continuing to evolve. Below is the latest update on current stock positions and key variety highlights to support timely decision-making.

Key Factors:

• Spring seed availability: Availability is tightening, with limited stocks of Laureate, Butterfly and a small number of other key varieties remaining for immediate dispatch.
• Maize seed: Our portfolio spans a wide range of maturities and end uses. Stocks are becoming increasingly limited, so early booking is recommended to avoid disappointment. Our game maize offering includes popular all-season blends, as well as later-maturing varieties for extended cover and feed.
• Small Seeds: Demand for grass leys and environmental mixtures is continuing to build. Supply remains strong, with options available to suit a range of different requirements. We offer standard mixtures, bespoke blends, and straight components.
• Winter OSR: Our top pick list of OSR varieties is robust, featuring selections chosen for their performance, traits, and characteristics. Key varieties include:

• Daymon (DSV), a new candidate variety delivering impressive yields, particularly in the Northern region, alongside high oil content.
• LG Atom, an exciting new Limagrain variety offering consistency and a strong set of agronomic traits.
• Karat, joint highest for gross output in the East/West regions on the AHDB Recommended List, providing excellent gross margin potential.
• LG Academic, a long-standing top performer known for its consistency and Limagrain’s stem health trait.

• We are also pleased to introduce the ADM Establishment Scheme, designed to support growers through the early stages of OSR development on selected top-pick varieties. Please contact your farm trader for further details.
• Autumn Cereals: KWS Fowlmere and LG Defiance are two of our leading choices for the autumn drilling season. KWS Fowlmere offers a unique package, including very early maturity (-2), helping to ease harvest pressure. LG Defiance is a dependable, high-yielding variety supported by an excellent disease resistance profile, including a rating of 8 for yellow rust.

Outlook
Looking ahead, availability is expected to remain tight in certain areas, particularly where demand continues to build. Early engagement and forward planning will be key to securing the right varieties and maximising performance opportunities for the season ahead.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

Geopolitical volatility keeps Europe supported while US remains pressured by weak seasonal demand. 

Key Factors: 

• European natural gas futures rebounded to around €46.5/MWh as renewed escalation in the Middle East raised doubts over the durability of the US brokered ceasefire. 

• Israeli strikes on Lebanon have added a new layer of uncertainty, with conflicting interpretations over whether the ceasefire extends beyond Iran. 

• Iran has again disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining pressure on global LNG flows and limiting supply visibility. 

• Qatar is reportedly preparing to restart output at its LNG facilities, though any meaningful recovery depends on safe passage through the Strait, which remains uncertain. 

• European markets remain structurally tight with continued reliance on LNG imports and limited storage buffers following the winter period. 

• US natural gas prices have softened to around $2.72/MMBtu, near multi month lows, as warmer weather reduces heating demand. 

• Above average temperatures through late April are driving stronger storage injections, with inventories now projected to move further above seasonal norms. 

• US markets remain largely insulated from global disruption due to strong domestic production and LNG export capacity already running near maximum levels. 
  
  

Outlook 
European gas markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with any disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to support prices. Partial recovery of Qatari supply may ease some pressure, but sustained normalisation depends on stabilising shipping routes. In contrast, the US market remains fundamentally soft, with seasonal demand weakness and strong supply likely to cap prices in the near term. 

Ammonia

Ammonia remains structurally tight despite ceasefire, with supply recovery expected to lag disruption. 

Key Factors: 

• Global ammonia benchmarks are expected to remain elevated through April as the Strait of Hormuz disruption enters its sixth week, continuing to restrict a significant portion of global supply. 

• A two week ceasefire announced on 7 April between the US and Iran has introduced the first pathway toward potential reopening of the Strait, though operational details remain unclear and physical flows are unlikely to resume immediately. 

• Around 21% of global seaborne ammonia trade typically transits the Strait, with the six week disruption estimated to have removed approximately 370,000 tonnes from the market. 

• The supply shock is compounded by production outages across key regions. Maaden has shut two ammonia lines in Saudi Arabia, QatarEnergy remains offline and Iranian production has been disrupted again following further strikes on energy infrastructure. 

• Even if the Strait reopens, logistical constraints including tanker availability and elevated war risk insurance premiums are expected to delay any meaningful recovery in exports. 

• East of Suez markets remain particularly tight, with Chinese export activity limited and additional outages including Yara’s Pilbara plant, Petronas maintenance and upcoming turnarounds at PT ESSA reducing available supply through Q2. 

• In Northwest Europe, the market remains tight with limited import options and continued reliance on Algerian supply, while domestic production remains viable at current gas prices. 

• The Tampa contract settled sharply higher at $775/t CFR for April, up $160/t month on month, reflecting the scale of the global supply shock. 
  
  

Outlook 
Ammonia markets are expected to remain firmly supported in the near term, even with a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The combination of logistical delays, ongoing production outages and strong seasonal demand means supply recovery will be gradual. Prices are likely to remain elevated through Q2, with a more meaningful correction expected only later in the year as global supply normalises and additional capacity comes online. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Demand weakness caps upside in Europe, but AN remains structurally tight on Russian supply constraints. 

Key Factors: 

• European nitrate price forecasts have been revised slightly lower as subdued demand and ample inventories following pre CBAM buying continue to weigh on market activity. 

• Delayed application due to weather and regulatory uncertainty has further reduced near term demand, leaving producers struggling to stimulate buying despite higher input costs. 

• Elevated gas prices have not translated into stronger pricing power, as buyers remain resistant and well covered on inventory. 

• German CAN is expected to remain relatively firm through April at around €430/t CIF, though sentiment remains weak with farmers reluctant to commit and distributors avoiding long positions. 

• UAN prices in France are forecast to edge slightly higher in April before declining into May, reflecting the seasonal tapering of demand and sufficient stock levels. 

• Russia’s one month export suspension has removed a major source of global AN supply, significantly tightening availability across export markets. 

• Baltic AN prices have been revised higher to around $440/t FOB in April, with further firming expected due to limited alternative supply. 

• Ongoing drone strikes on Russian nitrogen infrastructure, including outages at key plants, are further constraining production and export availability. 

• The US market remains exposed to these dynamics due to reliance on Baltic AN imports, with some farmers already delaying planting decisions in response to higher fertiliser costs. 

• In the US, UAN prices are expected to hold near current levels in April before declining into May as the application season concludes, although demand remains supported by strong crop acreage expectations. 
  
  

Outlook 
Nitrate markets present a mixed picture. European markets are likely to remain subdued in the near term due to weak demand and high inventory levels, but structural supply constraints, particularly in ammonium nitrate, are keeping global markets tight. The key risk remains further disruption to Russian supply, which could extend the current period of tightness and push prices higher despite otherwise soft demand conditions. 

Urea

Urea markets remain firmly supported as Middle East disruption collides with emerging May–June demand competition. 

Key Factors: 

• Global urea prices are expected to remain supported in the near term, with supply tightness from the Middle East conflict continuing to underpin the market. 

• The effective disruption to Arab Gulf exports has removed a significant portion of global supply, with up to 30% of exports impacted if the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. 

• Demand dynamics are shifting. While Europe is largely covered and the US has secured tonnes through April, concern is now building around US requirements for May and June, with limited vessels currently on route. 

• Australia is emerging as a major pressure point. The country is heavily import dependent and typically sources over 70% of its April to July requirements from the Middle East, leaving it highly exposed to current disruption. 

• Limited availability from alternative suppliers such as Indonesia and Malaysia is restricting replacement flows, forcing buyers to seek tonnes from less traditional origins including Nigeria and Oman. 

• India remains a key demand driver, with IPL issuing a fresh 2.5 Mt tender for shipment through to mid June. At the same time, uncertainty persists around roughly 500,000 tonnes from previous RCF business that remains stranded or delayed. 

• Although Iranian production has resumed and ceasefire discussions have raised hopes of partial reopening of the Strait, logistical recovery is expected to lag and supply flows remain uncertain. 

• Competition between the US, India and Australia for May–June tonnes is expected to intensify, shifting the market into a more acute demand driven phase. 

• Price expectations have moved higher, with Middle East and Egyptian FOB values forecast around $850/t for April, with further upside risk if disruption persists. 

• Some supply side relief is expected later in Q2, with China anticipated to return to the export market from May, though volumes may be limited initially. 
  
  

Outlook 
Urea markets are expected to remain elevated in the near term as supply disruption continues to collide with emerging seasonal demand across key import regions. The market is likely to become increasingly competitive for prompt tonnes through May and June. While some easing is expected later in the year as additional supply returns, near term risks remain skewed to the upside, particularly if Middle East disruption persists or logistical constraints delay the return of normal trade flows. 

Phosphates

Supply scarcity and feedstock inflation continue to drive prices higher despite worsening affordability. 

Key Factors: 

• Granular phosphate prices are expected to continue rising, supported by exceptionally tight global availability and sustained pressure from high raw material costs. 

• China’s extended export restrictions remain a central driver, with DAP, MAP and NP exports now effectively curtailed until at least August, and broader phosphate categories also restricted. 

• Export volumes from China are now expected to fall sharply to around 1 to 3 million tonnes for the year, down from 5.4 million tonnes last year, further tightening global P₂O₅ availability. 

• The Middle East conflict is compounding supply constraints, restricting exports from Saudi Arabia, where volumes typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz. 

• Logistics remain disrupted, with vessels delayed and alternative routes such as trucking to Red Sea ports unable to fully offset lost export capacity. 

• Feedstock pressure remains a major bullish driver, with both sulphur and ammonia prices elevated, increasing production costs and limiting supply response. 

• Morocco’s OCP is expected to reduce output by up to 30% in Q2 due to maintenance, likely linked to feedstock constraints, further tightening supply. 

• Brazil continues to lead demand side pricing, with MAP values rising rapidly despite poor affordability and credit constraints, forcing buyers to secure limited available tonnes. 

• India remains largely inactive but represents latent demand, with importers awaiting subsidy clarity while maintaining relatively low stock levels. 

• The US market remains comparatively softer but is expected to move higher in response to tightening global availability. 

• Demand destruction is increasingly evident as fertiliser prices outpace crop economics, though this is insufficient to offset the scale of supply constraints. 
  
  

Outlook 
Phosphate markets remain structurally bullish with tight supply and high input costs driving continued price increases. While affordability constraints will limit demand and create periods of reduced liquidity, they are unlikely to reverse the overall trend. The key risk remains prolonged geopolitical disruption and continued feedstock inflation, which could push prices beyond current expectations. 

Potash

Logistics driven price increases emerge as freight and insurance costs begin to feed through. 

Key Factors: 

• Potash prices are expected to rise modestly in the near term, primarily driven by increased freight, insurance and logistical costs rather than underlying supply disruption. 

• Despite broader fertiliser market volatility, potash supply remains uninterrupted, reinforcing its position as the most stable nutrient within the complex. 

• Brazil continues to lead global price direction, with MOP prices breaching $400/t CFR earlier than expected and smaller transactions now occurring around $405/t CFR. 

• Suppliers are increasingly targeting levels above $410/t CFR in the coming months, supported by strong import demand and rising logistics costs. 

• Brazilian imports reached 3.1 million tonnes in Q1, up 20% year on year, as the market replenishes stocks following low inventory levels at the end of last year. 

• Southeast Asia is expected to follow Brazil higher, supported by strong palm oil prices which are improving affordability and supporting demand. 

• A forthcoming Pupuk tender is likely to provide further direction for regional pricing. 

• China presents a softer dynamic, with prices under pressure due to weaker demand as higher nitrogen and phosphate costs erode farmer purchasing power, despite strong import volumes. 

• India contract negotiations remain ongoing, with expectations of a higher settlement as delays continue, reflecting rising global price levels. 

• European markets remain relatively stable, with modest firming driven by seasonal demand and logistical constraints, though affordability remains a limiting factor. 

• US prices have softened but are expected to stabilise and edge higher as cargoes are increasingly diverted toward higher priced markets such as Brazil. 

• The key structural driver remains logistics, with elevated freight and insurance costs continuing to push prices higher even in the absence of fundamental supply shortages. 
  
  

Outlook 
Potash markets are expected to trend gradually higher in the near term, led by logistics driven cost inflation and strong demand in Brazil and Southeast Asia. While supply remains balanced, rising freight costs are introducing upward pressure across global pricing. The pace of any further increases will depend on how quickly logistical conditions normalise following the Middle East ceasefire.

 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1489	1.3396	1.1665

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Apr26	150-160	170-182	196-206	435-445