Market Reports

Wheat

Global wheat markets traded in a volatile, rangebound pattern, driven by shifting geopolitics and energy prices while increasingly balanced by ample global supply. Weather risks and tightening forward balances offered intermittent support, though improving forecasts and competitive exports capped rallies, leaving markets searching for direction amid macro uncertainty.

Key Factors:

• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz drove sharp swings in energy markets, feeding directly into grain volatility. However, intermittent signs of de-escalation repeatedly shifted focus back to fundamentals, creating erratic intraday price action.
• Weather remains pivotal, with US Plains drought concerns offset by improving rainfall forecasts, while excessive rain in Argentina and mixed Brazilian conditions add uncertainty. These shifting forecasts have alternately injected and removed weather premium, particularly in Kansas City wheat.
• Global supply remains relatively comfortable but is tightening at the margins. The IGC trimmed production and stocks while maintaining strong trade demand, signalling a gradual shift towards a more balanced supply-demand outlook despite near-record availability.
• European markets face structural pressure from high energy costs, currency strength, and weak demand. Russian competitiveness, supported by currency and export flows, continues to weigh on EU exports, while fertiliser costs and policy changes may influence future production decisions.
• UK markets exhibited heightened volatility and improved liquidity across the curve, with active consumer buying on dips contrasting with cautious farmer selling. Strong imports and comfortable nearby supply tempered bullish sentiment despite intermittent demand surges.
  
  

Outlook
Wheat markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term, with geopolitics and energy markets dictating direction. Attention will shift towards planting intentions, fertiliser usage, and upcoming US data. While ample supply caps upside, tightening balances and weather uncertainty suggest underlying support, leaving prices vulnerable to sharp, sentiment-driven moves.

Malting Barley

Trade activity has seen a slight uptick over the last week with some participants looking to take some cover as a consequence of the added volatility caused by the war in Iran. But the poor demand outlook is continuing to limit price increases and restrict buyers to hand to mouth activity. Feed prices remain high and this is keeping pressure on malting premiums. 

Key Factors:

• Lack of old crop malting demand continues to see growers sell surplus barley as feed rather than malting.
• Good planting conditions over the last few weeks has seen 50-60% of the English spring crop now planted in good conditions.
• Demand for Aug-Dec 2026 positions lock set to be hard to find with many maltsters reporting good cover with either old crop or existing purchases. This leaves Jan’27 onwards as the main areas of demand.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, old crop malting markets remains supported by strong feed prices, but for the medium to long term we must turn our attention to the weather and the development progress of the forthcoming crop.

Feed Barley

Feed barley prices are steady amid low activity, with slow demand and limited farmer selling, while new crop ideas soften slightly due to good planting conditions.

Key Factors:

• Old crop feed barley prices are flat on the week as the market struggles to find any bullish or bearish impetus, and once again low liquidity is the main theme.
• Ocean freight rates remain elevated which is keeping a lid on export business, meanwhile domestic consumer demand lags. On the other side of the table, farmer selling is slow.
• New crop basis continues to feel weak against recent highs, as plantings progress under favourable conditions which is giving some more security for sellers. Similar to the old crop however, farmer selling for now is close to zero, and we are unlikely to see significant downside until farmers start to make sales.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop prices are likely to start flat once again as the end of the season draws close. Once again, new crop values will broadly follow the move in global ag markets.

Rapeseed

Ag markets have traded a volatile, headline-driven week, with macro sentiment swinging on developments in the Middle East and shifting trade rhetoric. Oilseed complexes have remained broadly rangebound, though with sharp intraday moves driven by crude oil and currency fluctuations. Fund positioning has been relatively cautious, with periodic de-risking into uncertainty. While underlying demand signals remain supportive in parts, technical resistance levels continue to cap rallies across the complex.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans have lacked clear direction, trading in a choppy range as macro headlines overshadow fundamentals. Early-week pressure from weaker Chinese import data contrasted with late-week support from renewed optimism around potential US-China engagement. Soyoil has been the standout, consistently finding support at the 20-day moving average, underpinning board crush margins despite weaker meal performance. Export inspections briefly provided a bullish spark, though forward demand expectations are softening. From a technical perspective, the market continues to respect near-term support, but upside momentum is struggling to build conviction, suggesting a consolidation phase with a slight upward bias if macro sentiment stabilises.
• Crude has been the primary driver of volatility across the complex, with sharp swings reflecting changing perceptions of geopolitical risk. The market remains highly reactive, with a persistent risk premium embedded. Technically, we have transitioned from impulsive upside momentum into a more two-sided trade, with support levels now under scrutiny. Direction from here will likely dictate broader oilseed sentiment, particularly via biofuel-linked demand channels.
• Canola has shown resilience, consistently finding support at trendline levels despite bouts of macro-driven selling. Strong crush margins have underpinned demand, though recent consumer coverage has started to temper this support slightly. Seasonality is beginning to turn constructive into April, offering a favourable backdrop. However, the market’s inability to push to fresh highs is notable, suggesting some exhaustion in the rally. Price action remains technically constructive overall, but a breakout above resistance is needed to reassert bullish momentum. Energy markets continue to act as a key supportive pillar, limiting downside risk.
• MATIF rapeseed has largely tracked the wider complex, oscillating around key technical levels. Prices have repeatedly tested and held trendline support, indicating underlying resilience, though rallies have been shallow and reactive rather than impulsive. The nearby May contract is beginning to feel pressure from elevated open interest ahead of expiry, with position rolling expected to weigh on the May-August spread and erode the inverse. Seasonality remains slightly negative in the short term but improves into April. Overall, the market appears to be coiling within a range, awaiting a clearer directional catalyst.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain highly sensitive to external developments, with crude oil likely to remain the dominant influence on direction. While underlying oilseed fundamentals are not overtly bearish, upside progress will require a stabilisation in macro sentiment and clearer demand signals. Technically, most markets are holding support but lacking conviction to break higher. Into April, improving seasonality and steady demand could provide a firmer footing, though volatility is expected to persist in the near term.

Oats

Markets for oats continue to be challenging with many millers out of the market for nearby positions. Values indicated remain below the cost of production and this is inhibiting farmer selling across Europe. Activity in new crop has seen an increase in enquiries, as consumers look to take cover against price volatility brought on by the war in Iran, however farmer selling is minimal.

Key Factors:

• Export bids are few and far between given the nearby cover held by millers, plus they are hoping for lower offer prices should freight prices return to pre-war levels.
• High import prices for fibre-based products have increased the attractiveness for oats and more compounders are looking to utilise oats in formulations.
• High fertiliser costs are making growers question whether they should continue to plant crops that are not yet in the ground.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, old crop prices may see an uplift if greater demand comes from the livestock sector. In the medium to long term, we focus on the development of new crop to give our market direction.

Pulses

Another week of global unrest as the conflict in the Middle East continues, with threats of attacks on energy infrastructure from both sides over the weekend, all thankfully being abruptly walked back on Monday morning, which gave markets a brief reprieve. The weather here in the UK is still near ideal for the ongoing Spring Drilling campaign, and attention is steadily turning towards new crop. Despite a frost this morning here in Lincolnshire, crops broadly look well and progress is being made.

Key Factors:

• Old crop bean values are again broadly unchanged, maintaining their streak of being less competitive against other feedstuffs in the ration, whilst being more competitive on the spot, this rapidly drops away to the usual c. £30–35/mt premium to alternative proteins such as rapeseed meal and soybean meal further forward. With a broadly balanced Supply and Demand picture though, this indifference to being competitive on price is correct, as it is rationing demand primarily into the mainstay consumer of the poultry sector, and not much else, which given the overall supply picture, is required.
• A spell of fine, settled weather across the UK has given fieldwork a real lift, with growers making the most of conditions to get fertiliser on and tidy up with sprays ahead of drilling. Momentum is clearly building, and the spring workload is shaping up to move quickly. Beans are featuring prominently in many plans, not least because the recent firmness in fertiliser values has sharpened their appeal. Their ability to fix nitrogen remains a clear advantage, particularly when looking to ease input costs for the following cereal crop. Beyond the cost considerations, beans continue to earn their place in the rotation. They contribute to improved soil structure and bring environmental benefits too, supporting pollinators during flowering. With the right management approach, they can still deliver both reliable yields and solid margins. For those intending to drill beans but weighing up how best to market them, our Pool is still available for additional tonnage, as well as a couple of other contracting options, speak to your Farm Trader for more information. These offer a practical option for navigating what can often be a thin and unpredictable market, helping to spread risk and provide a more structured route to sale.
• The pea market remains in a state of limbo, with long holders reluctant to sell near market lows and short-term bias remaining well covered. Trade flows between Canada and China have shown renewed activity, providing some support to global movement, although ongoing developments in the Middle East have added further pressure on freight costs. This, in turn, is likely to weigh on demand in the weeks ahead. Recent reports suggest that production may begin to slow due to tightening supply in oil and gas markets, which could have a knock-on effect on raw material demand, a key factor to monitor as we move forward.
• From a pricing perspective, the market has remained largely static week-on-week, with little change observed across both the UK and Europe. Sellers continue to focus on executing existing contracts while awaiting buyer interest to fill remaining gaps before the arrival of new crop supplies. Looking ahead, conditions in the UK remain favourable for spring planting; however, those without forward contracts may find it increasingly difficult to secure demand. Alternatives such as linseed contracts remain available and could offer a viable option for those seeking flexibility in upcoming planting decisions.
  
  

Outlook
Markets may remain volatile as geopolitical risks and freight costs influence demand, but near-term fundamentals appear balanced. Attention is shifting firmly to new crop, with favourable UK planting conditions supporting progress and acreage decisions. Beans retain structural appeal within rotations, while pea markets remain uncertain amid hesitant trade. Forward demand may prove harder to secure, making risk-managed marketing strategies and flexible cropping options increasingly important in the weeks ahead.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As spring seed demand intensifies, remaining floor stock is tightening across key varieties, making timely decisions more important than ever. With strong opportunities this season in both spring and autumn crops, now is the ideal moment to secure the best‑fit options for your rotation to ensure the best fit for performance, profitability and rotational resilience on farm.

Key Factors:

• Fast‑moving spring seed availability: Limited stocks of Laureate, Lynx, Butterfly and other key spring varieties are available for immediate dispatch to support any last‑minute requirements.
• Linseed as a strong break crop: Bingo (Spring Linseed) remains a standout option, topping the AHDB List for yield and offering early maturity with a robust disease profile. Linseed provides an excellent gross margin and valuable soil health benefits. Speak to your Farm Trader about current contracts.
• Demand for popular maize varieties is increasing, and availability is already tightening for many of the early maturing varieties. Whether growing for grain, forage or AD, our portfolio covers a wide range to ensure the right fit for your system. For more details, refer to our maize catalogue.
• As plans develop, attention is also turning to grass leys, environmental mixtures, fodder beet and a wide range of small seeds. Supply remains good, and we can help tailor options to your system.

• Looking ahead to the autumn, new to the 2026/27 AHDB Recommended List, KWS Fowlmere is one of the most exciting launches for the coming autumn. As the earliest‑maturing winter wheat on the RL and delivering class‑leading specific weight among Group 4 hard wheats, it offers growers a rare combination of timeliness, high performance and risk reduction. Its ultra‑early harvest, strong yield potential and robust agronomic package make it ideal for protecting quality and easing harvest pressure.
• LG Defiance also generating strong interest with market‑leading yield potential and an impressive disease resistance package, LG Defiance is another key variety to consider when planning for Autumn 2026.
  
  

Outlook
Both spring and autumn offer excellent opportunities this season, and securing seed at the right time will help maximise performance and ensure the best fit for your rotation. For tailored advice or to secure supply, please contact your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

Geopolitical disruption sustains elevated European prices while US softens on seasonal demand decline. 

Key Factors: 

• European natural gas futures rebounded toward €55/MWh after recent declines, with markets remaining highly sensitive to ongoing uncertainty around a potential Middle East ceasefire. 

• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, continuing to restrict LNG flows from the region and sustaining a structural supply shock in global gas markets. 

• Qatar’s LNG infrastructure remains offline following earlier strikes, with repair timelines now estimated at three to five years, removing a critical source of global supply for the foreseeable future. 

• Europe faces increasing competition with Asia for LNG cargoes as both regions look to secure supply, particularly ahead of the European storage refill season. 

• EU gas storage levels are critically low at around 28%, the lowest for this time of year since 2022, leaving the region highly exposed to further supply disruption. 

• US natural gas prices have softened to around $2.93/MMBtu as the market transitions out of winter demand, with the latest storage withdrawal expected to be the final draw of the season. 
  
  

Outlook 
European gas markets remain structurally tight and highly exposed to geopolitical developments, with limited storage and restricted LNG supply likely to keep prices elevated and volatile. In contrast, the US market is entering a softer seasonal phase, with strong domestic supply and reduced demand expected to cap prices unless global LNG dynamics materially tighten further. 

Ammonia

Global benchmarks continue to rise as Middle East disruption persists and additional outages tighten supply further. 

Key Factors: 

• Ammonia prices continue to strengthen as the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, with regional supply still effectively locked out of the global market due to ongoing disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. 

• The removal of Middle Eastern tonnes continues to tighten global balances, particularly across East of Suez markets which had previously relied on these flows. 

• Indian buyers are increasingly turning to Chinese material as an alternative source of prompt supply, reflecting the urgency to secure tonnes ahead of rising seasonal demand. 

• Additional supply constraints are emerging in Asia, with planned turnarounds in Southeast Asia set to reduce available production in the coming weeks. 

• Yara’s Pilbara ammonia plant is now offline following a power outage and is expected to remain shut for approximately two months, removing further supply from the market. 

• The combination of logistical disruption, unplanned outages and seasonal demand is tightening availability across both basins. 
  
  

Outlook 
Ammonia markets remain firmly bullish with supply constraints continuing to build. With Middle East exports still restricted and additional outages in Asia, prices are expected to move higher in the near term. Any meaningful easing will depend on the restoration of trade flows or a material increase in alternative supply, both of which currently appear unlikely. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Muted European demand softens sentiment, but AN remains structurally tight on Russian export restrictions. 

Key Factors: 

• European demand has yet to materially recover, keeping both ammonium sulphate and broader nitrate markets relatively soft week on week and adding pressure on producer inventories. 

• Limited field activity and delayed applications continue to weigh on near term buying interest, particularly across key Western European markets. 

• Ammonium sulphate values remain under pressure from subdued demand, though underlying global supply remains tight enough to prevent sharp declines. 

• Ammonium nitrate continues to diverge from the broader complex, with prices remaining firm and trending higher globally. 

• The key driver remains the unofficial Russian export ban on ammonium nitrate, which has significantly reduced available supply into export markets. 

• Russian domestic demand is prioritised during peak application season, further tightening global availability and supporting international prices. 

• Ongoing outages, including the Dorogobuzh plant, continue to restrict production capacity and reinforce the tightness in AN supply. 
  
  

Outlook 
While AS and broader nitrate markets may remain relatively subdued in the short term due to weak European demand, ammonium nitrate is expected to stay firm given ongoing supply constraints. If Russian export restrictions persist or are extended, further upward pressure on AN prices is likely despite softer demand elsewhere in the complex. 

Urea

Urea rally accelerates as Middle East supply remains absent and North African benchmarks surge. 

Key Factors: 

• Urea prices are expected to continue climbing as supply from the Arab Gulf remains largely absent due to ongoing disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. 

• The removal of Gulf exports continues to tighten global availability at a time of active seasonal demand, particularly from the US and Australia, with additional support from Europe. 

• North African markets are now leading price discovery, with Egyptian granular urea sold at $800/t FOB for April loading, marking a sharp increase from $760/t earlier in the week. 

• Mopco and Abu Qir collectively sold 12,000 tonnes at this higher level, confirming continued upward momentum in global benchmarks. 

• Algerian supply is also tightening, with reports suggesting AOA has reduced urea output to around half of typical levels, further constraining available tonnes into the market. 

• The rapid price progression highlights the lack of replacement supply, with buyers increasingly forced to secure cargoes at elevated levels. 

• Strong demand from key import regions continues to underpin the rally, with limited elasticity as application windows approach. 
  
  

Outlook 
Urea markets remain firmly bullish with upward momentum accelerating as supply constraints deepen. With Middle East tonnes still largely unavailable and North African production tightening, prices are expected to remain elevated with further upside risk in the near term. Any stabilisation will depend on a restoration of export flows or a material increase in alternative supply, neither of which appears imminent. 

Phosphates

Phosphate markets continue to push higher as supply tightness outweighs demand destruction. 

Key Factors: 

• Prices are rising again this week as the market contends with an exceptionally tight supply outlook across the coming months. 

• Ongoing disruption to Middle East supply chains and constrained global availability of finished product continue to underpin the rally. 

• High raw material costs, particularly sulphur and ammonia, are adding further upward pressure by increasing production costs across the phosphate chain. 

• Logistics constraints and elevated freight rates are compounding supply issues, limiting the movement of available tonnes. 

• Poor affordability is beginning to impact buying behaviour, with demand destruction expected in some regions as fertiliser prices outpace crop returns. 

• Despite this, the scale of supply tightness is expected to outweigh any reduction in demand, keeping the market structurally firm. 

• India remains a key focal point, with FACT and HURL closing tenders for NP and NPK supply, where any confirmed business is expected to reflect significantly higher price levels than previous trades. 
  
  

Outlook 
Phosphate markets remain firmly bullish in the near term, with further price increases likely as supply constraints persist across both production and logistics. While affordability will increasingly cap demand, it is unlikely to reverse the trend given the severity of the current supply shortage. 

Potash

Potash remains stable as broader fertiliser markets surge, with strength largely isolated to Brazil. 

Key Factors: 

• Potash continues to act as an outlier within the fertiliser complex, remaining relatively stable while nitrogen and phosphate prices have risen sharply. 

• Freight rates have increased significantly, up around 30–35% in many cases, reflecting broader logistical pressures, though this has not translated into major supply disruptions. 

• Trade flows remain largely intact, including through the Red Sea, with no significant interruption to global potash supply chains. 

• MOP prices are broadly unchanged across most regions, highlighting the balanced supply picture relative to other nutrients. 

• Brazil remains the key exception, where prices have risen more than 15% over the past six months, driven by sustained demand and restocking. 

• Suppliers are increasingly targeting $400/t CFR into Brazil by the end of Q1, supported by continued buying interest and tighter local availability. 

• India’s annual contract negotiations are ongoing, with a settlement expected by mid April, which will provide further direction for global pricing. 
  
  

Outlook 
Potash markets are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term, with price direction largely driven by regional demand rather than global supply shocks. Brazil will continue to be the primary driver of any upside, while other regions remain relatively quiet. The key watchpoint is India’s contract settlement, which will help set the tone for pricing into the second quarter. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1561	1.3361	1.1560

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Mar26	147-157	170-180	196-206	430-440