Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Global grain markets weakened further over the past week as improving weather across key Northern Hemisphere growing regions, advancing harvest activity and larger Black Sea production forecasts outweighed ongoing geopolitical tensions. Wheat and corn futures continued to trend lower, while UK and European markets remained under pressure from harvest expectations and subdued physical demand.

Key Factors:

• Weather and crop prospects remain the dominant market driver. Improved rainfall forecasts across the US Midwest, Europe and parts of the UK have boosted confidence in 2026 crop potential, reducing the weather premium that had supported prices earlier in the season.
• Black Sea supply continues to cap upside. Russian wheat production estimates have been revised higher, with forecasts now exceeding 91 million tonnes, while Ukraine is expected to maintain substantial export availability, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply.
• US grain markets remain under pressure. Corn futures have fallen to multi-month lows amid favourable crop conditions and strong planting progress. Wheat markets continue to struggle despite below-average crop ratings as harvest pressure builds.
• European and UK wheat values have softened. MATIF wheat has retraced sharply from spring highs, while London wheat futures have fallen towards recent lows. Improved rainfall and growing expectations for larger crops have discouraged buyers and limited support.
• Demand remains insufficient to offset bearish fundamentals. Export business has been sporadic, with importers largely well covered. While tenders from destinations such as Jordan have emerged, they have not been enough to absorb increasing harvest supplies.
  
  

Outlook
Attention will remain firmly focused on Northern Hemisphere harvest results and weather developments over the coming weeks. While geopolitical risks and isolated crop concerns persist, global supply prospects currently appear comfortable. Without a significant weather threat in a major exporting region, rallies are likely to remain corrective, with harvest pressure continuing to weigh on grain markets through June and into early harvest.

Malting Barley

European malting markets were negative again last week with forecasted rains resulting in the bearish sentiment of an oversupplied market coming to the fore. Wheat prices have eased back on lack of fresh fundamental news, and this is only lending itself to lower prices. Farmer selling remains non-existent and this is helping to support prices.

Key Factors:

• Widespread rainfall in the key exporting nations of France and UK has eased drought concerns with some areas getting 30-50mm or rain.
• American and Iran war remains in deadlock with minimal change to maintain the price risk. Consequentially the bullish sentiment is now in the price, and a lack of demand is starting to weigh on markets.
• Lack of farmer selling in Europe is helping to minimise the fall in Malting barley prices, however if demand kicks in prior to any selling, we could see a bounce in values.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, malting barley prices in Europe continue to fall on expectations of a large carryout. Looking ahead the outlook for malting barley in the UK remains uncertain. On the one hand it is supported by a lack of farmer selling and historically low planted area but in contrast the lack of demand is balancing this bullish sentiment. Longer term, it all depends on the quality of this new crop as to whether premiums will widen or not.

Feed Barley

The feed barley market remains subdued, with old crop values largely unchanged and trade volumes limited as the industry increasingly focuses on the approaching harvest. Market participants continue to monitor crop development closely, with prolonged dry and warm conditions maintaining concerns over spring barley yield potential.

Key Factors:

• Old crop feed barley prices have changed little over the past week, with liquidity remaining thin and most commercial attention now directed towards new crop positioning.
• Spring barley crops continue to face moisture stress in many areas. While recent weather has supported crop progress, concerns over yield potential persist following a challenging growing season.
• Farmer engagement remains limited, with uncertainty around production prospects discouraging forward selling and reducing available market liquidity.
• Physical trade activity is expected to remain light until harvest pressure begins to improve supply visibility and encourage greater participation from both growers and consumers.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop feed barley values are expected to remain stable through the final weeks of the marketing season. New crop pricing is likely to continue taking direction from wheat markets, although weather developments and harvest results will increasingly influence sentiment as the season progresses.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets delivered another volatile week, with strength in energy and vegetable oils increasingly offsetting pressure from favourable North American growing conditions. Escalating geopolitical tensions continued to underpin crude oil and biofuel-linked markets, while improving crop prospects weighed on grains. Canadian canola outperformed on tightening old crop supplies and energy support, while MATIF rapeseed finally achieved a technical breakout above long-standing resistance. Despite mixed daily sessions, the wider oilseed complex retains a constructive tone, supported by firm vegetable oil demand and resilient technical structures.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans remained under pressure throughout the week as favourable US weather reinforced expectations for strong crop development. Additional pressure came from another upward revision to Brazilian production estimates and continued competitiveness of South American export supplies. The market broke below key technical support at $11.62/bu before testing support near $11.48/bu, signalling a deterioration in short-term momentum. However, soy oil continued to provide an important counterbalance, with biofuel demand remaining robust and US March soy oil consumption running more than 21% above year-ago levels. While soybean futures remain trapped within a broader trading range, the divergence between grains and vegetable oils remains a key feature of the market.
• Energy markets remained the dominant external influence this week. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns surrounding Middle East supply routes injected fresh volatility into crude oil, helping futures post substantial gains despite frequent intraday reversals. Risk premium remained embedded in prices as traders assessed the potential implications for global supply flows. Stronger crude values continue to provide indirect support to vegetable oils, helping sustain positive sentiment across the oilseed complex even as grain fundamentals remain less supportive.
• Canola was one of the week’s strongest performers. Early gains were achieved despite largely favourable planting and weather conditions across Alberta and Saskatchewan. Later in the week, attention shifted towards old crop availability, with a logistical short squeeze emerging as exporters competed for remaining supplies to fulfil commitments. Nearby contracts benefited most from this tightening supply situation, while deferred contracts remained more focused on improving new crop prospects. The market continues to demonstrate strong underlying support, particularly in old crop positions.
• MATIF rapeseed spent much of the week testing the psychologically important €530/t resistance level before finally achieving a break higher. The move represents an important technical development, strengthening the broader uptrend that has been in place since early spring. While momentum indicators have yet to fully confirm the breakout, the market has successfully defended trend support so it will be important to see if we can continue to test new highs. Harvest logistics remain on the horizon, but for now the technical picture is trying to improve with the break above €530/t.
  
  

Outlook
Attention now shifts towards confirmation of recent technical developments. Soybeans remain vulnerable to favourable US weather forecasts, although strong vegetable oil demand continues to provide support beneath the wider complex. Crude oil is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, maintaining volatility across oilseeds. Canola’s old crop tightness should continue to underpin nearby values, though overall focus will be on crop development/the end of the planting campaign. MATIF rapeseed will need to hold above €530/t to validate its breakout and preserve the constructive trend heading towards harvest.

Oats

Oat markets have seen a pickup in values over the last week as higher old crop demand in the UK combine with dryness concerns in the UK to support locate domestic prices. Weaker feed barley markets have lowered feed oat prices, however with the potential lack of supply in 2026 it is possible we see greater support for oats in the coming months. 

Key Factors:

• Higher buying demand in the UK has helped support prices as millers start to be concerned about new crop production prospects.
• Very hot and dry conditions last week may have resulted in faster maturity of UK crops and may have damaged yields, although widespread rainfall this week could help supress the stress.
• Weaker grains market caused by lack of fresh bullish news is lending to lower prices given the general comfortable balance sheet.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, we may see some upside in old crop prices as consumers look to protect against new crop concerns. In the medium term the outlook is dependent on the weather over the next 6 weeks as any further damage to the UK crop will lend to a tighter balance sheet. Longer term, if oat markets do not maintain a recovery in prices, then growers will look for an alternative crop for crop 2027.

Pulses

Favourable sunshine across much of the UK has supported fieldwork and crop development throughout the spring. Following record-breaking temperatures in May, many areas have thankfully received some much-needed rainfall this week, providing welcome relief to crops that had begun to feel the effects of the prolonged dry conditions. Winter Beans have generally coped well with the lack of moisture, while Spring Beans and Peas, with their less developed root systems and smaller canopy size, are showing increasing signs of stress.

Key Factors:

• New crop trading remains relatively subdued, with values continuing to take direction from movements in London Feed Wheat futures. Market participants are largely maintaining a cautious approach, preferring to wait for a clearer picture of crop development and yield potential before extending significant forward commitments.
• Sentiment in the old crop Bean market has strengthened as the season draws to a close. Tight availability and reduced market liquidity continue to underpin prices, despite overall trading volumes remaining relatively modest. Stocks are still moving into the market at a steady pace, although the recent rise in values is beginning to dampen buyer interest. Higher prices are encouraging some consumers to delay purchases and limit additional coverage. Growers holding remaining old crop stocks may wish to consider taking advantage of current market strength while these firmer values remain available.
• Overall, new crop Bean prospects remain reasonably positive, particularly for Winter-sown crops, which have shown greater resilience to the prolonged dry spell than many cereal crops. However, moisture remains a key requirement moving forward, and this week’s rainfall should help replenish soil reserves and support further development. Reports indicate that Spring Beans are under greater pressure, with crops in some regions noticeably shorter than normal. There have also been reports of plants beginning to flower at relatively low heights, which could signal reduced yield potential due to fewer pod-bearing sites. Encouragingly, a return to more typical rainfall patterns could still support additional vegetative growth and improve yield prospects.
• Pea crops are facing similar challenges, with dry conditions increasingly affecting crop development. Alongside moisture concerns, growers are reporting heightened pest pressure, particularly from Pea Moth and, more notably, Pea Bruchid. We would encourage all growers to remain vigilant over the coming weeks to help protect crop potential. Should Bruchid populations become more widespread, there is a significant risk to both crop quality and marketability across the UK. Early monitoring and timely management will be crucial in minimising any impact.
  
  

Outlook
Buyer demand remains cautious, with most attention still focused on fulfilling outstanding old crop requirements rather than extending new crop coverage. Growers seeking guidance on crop management should make full use of the extensive technical and agronomic support available through PGRO, as well as Keith Costello’s latest crop bulletins. Members have access to a wide range of resources, while farm trading representatives can provide further information on accessing relevant advice and support.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

June marks the start of one of the busiest periods in the arable calendar, with growers turning their attention to variety choice, trial visits and planning for the season ahead. With Trials Days and Cereals taking place over the coming weeks, growers will have valuable opportunities to assess performance, compare genetics and gather insight to support decision‑making for autumn drilling.

Key Factors:

• Trials Days: Throughout June and July, ADM will be hosting a series of Trials Days across England in partnership with some leading plant breeders. These events provide the chance to view current Recommended List varieties alongside exciting new candidates for future seasons.

Key dates:

24 June – DSV, Flawborough

2 July – Limagrain, Rothwell

7 July – KWS, Yorkshire

These days offer an excellent opportunity to see how varieties perform locally and to discuss disease pressure, new options and markets with breeders and ADM specialists. Get in touch to book into one of our slots.

• Winter OSR: OSR continues to deliver one of the strongest gross margins on farm, making it an important crop for many rotations this autumn. Beyond its financial return, OSR provides significant agronomic benefits, reducing grassweed pressure, breaking cereal disease cycles and supporting soil health. Success starts with selecting the right variety. The ADM portfolio is built around high yield potential, strong oil content, robust disease resistance and reliable agronomic traits.

Highlighted varieties include:

Karat – Joint highest gross output in the East/West region; strong disease package including Rlm12.

Daymon – New candidate with high oil, strong vigour and excellent stem canker resistance (RlmS + Rlm7).

LG Atom – New Limagrain hybrid with pod shatter resistance, TuYV and CSFB resilience.

LG Academic – Consistent on‑farm performer with strong standing power and the LG stem health tag.

Explore the full range in the ADM Seed Catalogue.

OSR Establishment Scheme: To help manage early‑season risk and support successful establishment, ADM offers an internal Establishment Scheme across selected high‑performing hybrids. This provides growers with added confidence and helps secure the best possible start to the crop.

• Winter Wheat: Several notable new varieties are entering the market this year:

Sparkler – Joint‑highest Septoria tritici rating in Group 4 feeds and the highest‑yielding Group 4 soft on the Recommended List.

KWS Aintree – A new Group 4 hard variety delivering impressive yields across multiple seasons and regions.

• Small Seeds: Demand for small seeds continues to build as growers plan for spring and summer drilling. Whether you require grass leys, environmental mixtures, game cover or bespoke blends, your ADM Farm Trader can help secure the right mix for your system.
  
  

Outlook
As growers attend Trials Days and view varieties in their local conditions, decisions around autumn cropping will begin to take shape. Varietal selection remains one of the most influential factors in achieving a successful crop, and early engagement will help secure the best options for 2026 drilling.

Fertiliser

Ammonia

Global ammonia markets remain structurally tight, with last week’s failed IPL tender reinforcing the lack of available prompt supply at commercially workable levels. 

Key Factors: 

• Last week’s IPL ammonia tender was ultimately scrapped after receiving offers for less than half of the requested volume, highlighting the ongoing shortage of available tonnes in the global market. 
• The gap between buyer expectations and seller pricing remains significant, underlining how elevated replacement values have become across East of Suez markets. 
• The tender result has reinforced broader market sentiment that the global ammonia balance remains structurally short despite some softening in adjacent nitrogen markets such as urea and nitrates. 
• Attention is now shifting toward whether IPL returns with a revised or fresh tender in the coming weeks, which would likely provide another important indication of true market clearing levels. 
• Supply flexibility remains limited due to ongoing regional outages, constrained Middle East availability and reduced prompt spot liquidity. 
• Demand across East of Suez markets remains persistent, particularly from India and wider Asian buyers competing for limited cargoes. 
• While softer sentiment has emerged in parts of the wider nitrogen complex, ammonia continues to trade independently due to its significantly tighter underlying supply fundamentals. 
  
  

Outlook 
Ammonia markets are expected to remain under upward pressure in the near term. The failed IPL tender has reinforced how limited global prompt supply remains, and unless meaningful additional availability emerges, sellers are likely to maintain firm pricing expectations across key import regions. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

European nitrate markets continue transitioning into new season positioning, while uncertainty persists around UAN pricing direction. 

Key Factors: 

• European nitrate markets continue absorbing new season CAN offers issued last week by Yara and LAT, helping establish clearer pricing structure for summer business. 
• Additional LAT Nitrogen AN offers for late summer and early autumn delivery have also entered the market, further contributing to price discovery ahead of the next application cycle. 
• Market participants are gradually engaging with these levels, though underlying demand remains relatively measured and cautious. 
• UAN pricing direction remains far less certain, with producers and buyers both closely monitoring developments in the wider nitrogen complex. 
• Sentiment in urea markets continues to play a major role in shaping UAN expectations, particularly given substitution dynamics and relative nutrient economics. 
• At the same time, continued upward pressure on natural gas and ammonia costs is maintaining elevated production economics for nitrate producers across Europe. 
• These input cost pressures are limiting the potential for meaningful downside in producer pricing despite relatively subdued seasonal demand. 
  
  

Outlook
European nitrate markets are expected to remain broadly stable as the market continues absorbing new season CAN and AN offers. UAN direction remains more uncertain, with pricing likely to remain heavily influenced by developments in urea sentiment alongside ongoing strength in gas and ammonia costs. 

Urea

India returns with fresh tender demand while China reopens exports at historically high price floors. 

Key Factors: 

• China has reopened its urea export window, with producers receiving quota allocations and new price floors set for prilled urea and granular grade. 
• The first-round allocation is estimated at around 3 Mt, significantly larger than last year’s initial 2 to 2.4 Mt allocation, but the much higher price floors reflect the tighter global market since the Middle East conflict began.
•  China’s return adds potential supply relief, but at these floor levels it is unlikely to be aggressively bearish for global pricing.
•  Domestic Chinese urea prices have already rebounded following the export allocation announcement, reversing recent weakness as downstream buying interest improved. 
• India’s NFL has issued a fresh 1.7 Mt import tender for shipment by 20 July, with offers due 8 June. 
• The tender calls for 800,000 t to the east coast and 900,000 t to the west coast, with suppliers required to declare origin, loading port and any loading restrictions. 
• The origin requirement remains important given continued sensitivity around Arab Gulf logistics and recent disruption to Middle East supply chains. 
• Egypt has softened this week, with some producers targeting around $675/t FOB compared with $700 to $730/t FOB last week.
  
  

Outlook
China’s export reopening provides additional supply, but elevated price floors limit the bearish impact. India’s fresh 1.7 Mt NFL tender should provide the next major directional signal, while Egyptian softness may prove temporary if Indian demand absorbs available tonnes at firm levels. 

Phosphates

Global phosphate markets remain fundamentally tight, though affordability pressure is increasingly slowing spot activity and price momentum. 

Key Factors: 

• Global DAP and MAP spot market activity is expected to remain relatively subdued this week as buyers become increasingly cautious at elevated pricing levels. 
• While the supply side remains exceptionally tight, affordability concerns are beginning to materially slow both purchasing activity and the pace of further price increases. 
• India, the key global DAP import market, recently secured commitments for around 1.3 Mt under its latest tender, leaving importers primarily focused on vessel booking and allocation rather than fresh purchasing. 
• The large Indian procurement programme has temporarily reduced immediate spot demand, helping calm some short-term market momentum.
•  Brazil, the key MAP import market, continues to show very limited appetite for fresh business due to poor affordability and tightening credit conditions. 
• Brazilian MAP prices have now remained broadly unchanged for more than a month following an aggressive 42% rally during the first four months of the year.
•  In the US, phosphate prices continue to move higher, though domestic benchmarks remain below prevailing international levels. 
• The disconnect between US and international pricing continues encouraging some market participants to evaluate re export opportunities where logistics allow.
•  Despite softer activity levels, the broader market remains structurally tight due to ongoing Chinese export restrictions, constrained Saudi logistics and elevated sulphur and ammonia costs. 
  
  

Outlook
Phosphate markets are expected to remain fundamentally supported, though affordability concerns are increasingly acting as a brake on fresh buying activity. Supply remains exceptionally constrained globally, but slower demand from India and Brazil may temporarily stabilise price momentum in the near term. 

Potash

Potash markets remain broadly stable as tighter supply is increasingly offset by concerns around future demand destruction. 

Key Factors: 

• Global potash prices remained broadly stable this week, with limited fresh directional momentum across most regions. 
• The recently concluded India contract settlement at $383/t CFR failed to provide any significant additional boost to market sentiment despite representing a higher year on year benchmark. 
• Similarly, Pupuk’s tender for 20,000 tonnes of standard MOP generated little market reaction, reflecting relatively balanced short-term fundamentals. 
• Supply availability remains relatively tight in several regions, supported by ongoing logistical constraints and disciplined supplier positioning. 
• However, market participants are increasingly focused on the potential for demand destruction during the second half of the year. 
• Rising fertiliser costs across nitrogen and phosphates are beginning to pressure overall farm budgets, even though potash remains comparatively more affordable. 
• Buyers in several regions are becoming more cautious around forward commitments at current levels, particularly where crop economics remain under pressure. 

• Supplier sentiment remains relatively firm, though the market currently lacks a strong catalyst for aggressive upward movement. 
  
  

Outlook
Potash markets are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term. Tight supply continues to provide support, but growing concerns around second half demand destruction are limiting upside momentum. The market remains balanced for now, with future direction likely to depend on how demand evolves across key agricultural regions through summer and early autumn. 

Offers 

We currently have Urea available in the Sep–Dec window.

We have also now purchased more Piamon, and we have 27N 12SO₃ to offer, so please keep pushing both products. Momentum has been good and we want to keep that moving. 

On liquids, we continue to see steady demand as new season market continues to develop. 

One further point to keep front of mind is Fibrophos. This continues to look like a bigger opportunity, particularly as a product that can positively affect grower margins. We have already had some excellent success this year with both new and existing accounts, so please mention it where you can. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1564	1.3416	1.1597

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
June26	154-163	182-190	220-230	440-450