Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

The USDA’s July WASDE report provided a neutral-to-supportive backdrop for grains, but the dominant market driver became the rapid escalation of Black Sea disruptions. Russian and Ukrainian attacks on ports, tankers, and export infrastructure tightened near-term wheat availability, while hot, dry weather across parts of the U.S. and Europe added further support. MATIF wheat rallied sharply and London wheat followed higher.

Key Factors

• The USDA cut U.S. corn ending stocks to the bottom of market expectations and lowered global corn stocks, while wheat saw reduced U.S. winter wheat production. However, world wheat ending stocks were broadly in line with expectations, leaving the report only gently supportive for wheat prices.
• Russia’s temporary suspension of traffic through the Don-Azov channel, combined with heavy damage to Ukrainian port infrastructure, disrupted major export routes. Around one-third of Ukraine’s grain export capacity has reportedly been affected, increasing concerns over global wheat availability.
• Hot, dry conditions across the U.S. Northern Plains and western Corn Belt continue to raise crop stress concerns, although forecasts suggest some moderation later in July. France and Spain remain under above-average temperatures, with only limited rainfall relief expected.
• MATIF December wheat rallied roughly €20/t from Friday’s open, supported by Black Sea logistics concerns, lower French production estimates, and continued fund short covering. London November wheat gained around £7/t over the same period.
• Importers are increasingly sourcing grain from the EU, Australia, and South America as Black Sea freight insurance costs rise, and shipping capacity tightens. This is improving the export outlook for the EU and adding support, despite generally healthy production prospects in parts of northern and eastern Europe.
  

Outlook
Wheat markets are likely to remain highly volatile, with geopolitical developments in the Black Sea now outweighing the relatively neutral WASDE outcome. If export disruptions persist and U.S. weather remains threatening, further upside in MATIF and London wheat is possible. Corn and soybeans will continue to trade primarily on Midwest rainfall forecasts and evolving yield expectations.

Malting Barley

The winter barley harvest is nearly complete in large parts of Europe with France reporting yields 1-1.5t/ha below normal and the UK is being very variable.

The extended hot dry weather throughout Europe is continuing to advance crop maturity and there is potential for damage to developing spring crops. 

Key Factors

• Attacks on Black Sea ports are raising concerns of grain supplies, and this has triggered a wheat lead rally.
• Continued dry weather is advancing harvest at a pace which is 1-2 weeks earlier than normal.
• Variable yields and quality being reported from both France and UK harvests.
• High screenings and poor retentions could see greater quantities of UK barley enter into the feed market.
• Minimal farmer selling continues to support prices as this lack of liquidity is impacting the ability to trade.
  

Outlook
In the near term, prices will continue to be influenced by the rally in wheat markets along with the lack of farmer selling following concerns of the state of the spring crop. 

Longer term, the market here in the UK remains dulled by the lack of demand and oversupply in Scotland. Prices will be supported by wheat market rallies.

Feed Barley

Winter barley harvest is delivering mixed yields and mainly feed-quality grain, while weak spot demand and harvest logistics are pressuring nearby prices despite firmer deferred values, with longer term barley prices expected to stay supported by a tight supply and demand outlook.

Key Factors

• Winter barley yields remain mixed but average on overall. Quality in general is acceptable as feed, with some question marks over malting barley suitability. Spring barley harvest has not yet started but will be eagerly watched by the market in the coming weeks.
• With harvest in full swing, we have seen extreme pressure on spot prices as the market struggles to execute July logistics, as there is no calculating export market to clear volumes spot. Combined with the escalation in the Black Sea, which is supporting deferred price, the spread between harvest and November has increased to over £15/mt.
• Farmer selling is picking up as prices provide a much more attractive level to sell for later in the year, which is pushing the spread vs wheat lower as barley demand remains sluggish. Although, longer term we expect this spread to remain supported given the tight S&D outlook.
  

Outlook
Prices will continue to be dictated by global geopolitics in the short term, which is currently dominating sentiment and headlines. In the longer term, we expect that barley prices will remain supported relative to wheat, given attractive pricing which should support feed inclusion, and the lowest production forecast in over a decade.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets posted another firm week overall, with strength driven by a combination of supportive energy markets, persistent weather concerns across key growing regions and renewed uncertainty surrounding Black Sea logistics as heightened tensions through the week brings concerns. While day-to-day volatility remained elevated, the broader technical picture continued to improve for oilseeds. Soybeans remained underpinned by Chinese demand and tightening global balance sheets, Canadian canola drew support from crop stress concerns, and MATIF rapeseed pushed to fresh contract highs despite encountering overhead resistance.

Key Factors

• Soybeans: CBOT soybeans finished the week with a constructive tone despite some midweek profit taking. Chinese buying remained the dominant supportive feature, with two flash sales announced during the week helping reinforce confidence in export demand. The latest USDA report was viewed as neutral to slightly bullish after global ending stocks came in below expectations, while the market largely shrugged off a modest increase to Brazil’s crop estimate from CONAB. Hot and dry weather across parts of the US Plains continues to attract weather premium as traders monitor soil moisture during a critical development period. Technically, futures are rangebound in the short term but continue to test the upper end of the trading channel.
• Crude oil: Energy markets were once again a major influence across the oilseed complex. Crude experienced significant volatility, initially surging as geopolitical tensions increased before stabilising around the $85/barrel level later in the week. Although the Strait of Hormuz remained open, reduced vessel movements and ongoing uncertainty maintained a sizeable risk premium within the market. Supportive crude prices filtered directly into vegetable oils, particularly soyoil, providing an important underlying pillar for rapeseed and canola. Traders remain highly sensitive to any developments that could affect global energy supplies, keeping volatility elevated.
• Canadian canola: ICE canola enjoyed another strong week despite a sharp midweek correction. Early gains were fuelled by increasingly hot conditions across southern Saskatchewan, where temperatures have reached levels capable of causing crop stress during key development stages. Farmer selling and speculative profit taking temporarily pressured prices after futures rallied to levels offering attractive forward marketing opportunities, but fresh buying quickly emerged. The market has now established fresh highs for the move and continues to hold a positive technical structure, with the next resistance level coming into view should weather concerns persist.
• MATIF rapeseed: MATIF rapeseed was one of the strongest performers this week, with November futures breaking to fresh contract highs before encountering expected resistance. Support came from higher energy markets, weather concerns across Western Europe and reduced optimism surrounding Black Sea sunflower production, which could limit competing vegetable oil supplies later in the season. Recent developments affecting Black Sea export logistics also added further underlying support without fundamentally altering supply expectations. From a technical perspective, the market remains within a well-defined upward trend, although having reached an initial upside target and key resistance area, some consolidation would not be unexpected if fresh bullish news begins to fade.
  

Outlook
The market enters next week with weather forecasts, energy markets and Black Sea logistics remaining the primary drivers of direction. Soybeans will continue to take guidance from US weather and Chinese buying activity, while canola traders remain focused on Canadian temperatures during a critical crop stage. MATIF rapeseed retains a constructive technical outlook but is approaching resistance, suggesting volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets assess whether enough fresh fundamental support exists to sustain the recent rally.

Oats

Similar to last week, trading activity remains subdued as consumers continue to await clearer indications from the European harvest. Farmer selling remains exceptionally limited, with the majority of transactions driven by growers looking to create storage space ahead of harvest logistics.

Key Factors

• The heatwave across large areas of Europe has accelerated crop development and increased concerns around grain quality as harvest progresses.
• The slow advance in oat prices despite a strong rally in wheat is causing farmers to hold off from selling.
• UK harvest is expected to begin around a week earlier than normal, with some regions potentially starting even sooner. However, spring crops have suffered significantly from a prolonged lack of moisture over the past four months, resulting in concerns over low specific weights and elevated screenings.
  

Outlook
In the near term, prices are likely to remain supported while uncertainty persists over new crop yields and quality, coupled with the continued lack of farmer selling. As harvest progress provides a clearer picture of production and quality, market liquidity should improve.

Scandinavian production remains a key factor for the milling oat market. Any crop issues in the region could quickly tighten supply expectations and provide support to prices.

Looking further ahead, the outlook for UK oat production remains challenging. The long-term trend of declining oat acreage is unlikely to reverse unless price levels improve and the crop offers a more attractive economic return for growers compared with alternative planting options.a

Pulses

The old crop is done, and all eyes are on the new crop. Pulse markets are waiting for yield results with bated breath, as early reports highlight variability in both bean and pea crops. Early bean results tell a story of disease and weather pressure; however, this is on a field-by-field basis. With little rain in the forecast, it is likely we will see harvest wrapped up in the not-too-distant future, especially as spring beans continue to die off in the heat.

Key Factors

• New crop beans are starting to gather harvest pace, with reports of winter beans being cut across the southern half of the UK. Yields and quality are both unsurprisingly variable, especially for this point in the season, with early reports ranging from c. 2.5mt/ha-5mt/ha.
• The first samples have already passed through the lab, and quality is variable, although the seeds are showing signs of being smaller and more pinched than usual. Buyers are limited for new crop currently, instead favouring holding off to see where the crop goes.
• The pulse market remains in a holding pattern, with buyers waiting for clearer harvest yield and quality data, while sellers focus on harvest progress and sample assessment before offering larger volumes.
• Early indications show UK and European pea yields are highly variable, with some areas close to average and others reporting significant reductions. Crop quality remains the key unknown at this stage.
• India continues to source substantial volumes of Canadian yellow peas, leaving surplus export supply, although lower-than-expected European production could absorb some of the excess later in the season.
• Attention is beginning to turn to the 2027 planting season, with strong grower interest in increasing pulse acreage. Buyers, however, are waiting for final production and quality data before establishing new crop benchmarks.
• As harvest continues, growers should remain vigilant for Pea Bruchid Beetle where applicable and continue following PGRO technical guidance. Farm Trading representatives remain available to discuss quality, marketing opportunities, and agronomic support.
  

Outlook
The pulse market remains in a holding pattern as harvest expands and clearer yield and quality data emerges. Early bean and pea results are highly variable, with disease, heat and moisture stress affecting some crops more than others. With limited rainfall forecast, harvest is expected to progress rapidly, and market direction should become clearer over the coming weeks as production, quality and export availability are better understood.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

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Key Factors

• Winter OSR
• Success in OSR starts with the right genetics, drilling into adequate moisture, and making use of establishment schemes, companion cropping, and close agronomic monitoring. OSR remains a high‑margin crop and setting it up for a strong season begins with soil conditions and seed choice.
• ADM Agriculture’s OSR portfolio is selected to deliver:
• High output
• Excellent oil content
• Strong agronomic performance
• Robust disease resistance
• To explore the full range, please view our 
• Oilseed Rape Catalogue
• Winter Cereals
• Following another season of extensive trial assessments across multiple sites and growing conditions, several varieties have continued to impress.
• RGT Hexton has once again stood out, maintaining excellent cleanliness and delivering consistently strong performance across trial locations. This variety really seems to hold its own in lighter soils and droughty conditions. 
• KWS Fowlmere is another variety worth considering. With a maturity rating of -2, it offers something genuinely different, maturing significantly earlier than any other Recommended List variety while also delivering excellent specific weight.
• KWS Arnie has also generated significant interest this season. It has remained notably clean, particularly against yellow rust, during a year when disease pressure has been exceptionally high.
• In winter barley, newly recommended hybrid SY Barnabus looks set to provide a yield step-up for current Kingsbarn growers, combining exceptional yield potential with outstanding specific weight.
• Small Seeds & Cover Crops
• For growers planning to drill a summer cover crop, we offer a wide range of mixtures for fast delivery, providing multiple soil and rotational benefits. We also supply companion crops suitable for OSR, helping to deter flea beetle and support nitrogen fixation.
  

Outlook
As harvest progresses and planning begins for autumn drilling, variety selection and rotational decisions remain critical drivers of crop performance and profitability. With continued disease pressure and increasingly variable weather, choosing the right genetics will be more important than ever.

Fertiliser

Nitrates and Sulphates 

Activity returns as Brazilian demand improves and urea stability supports sentiment.

Key Factors

• After a quiet period, buying interest has started to return, led primarily by renewed Brazilian demand. 
• Sentiment across both nitrates and sulphates has shifted firmer as urea appears to have found a floor after its recent correction. 
• The stabilisation in urea is helping restore confidence across the wider nitrogen complex, reducing buyer expectations of further near-term downside. 
• Nitrate values are beginning to find support after recent pressure, with buyers showing more willingness to engage where seasonal demand remains. 
• Sulphate markets have also firmed across most regions, with Brazil providing a clearer demand signal after a period of weaker liquidity. 
• The improvement in activity suggests some buyers may now be moving to cover delayed requirements rather than continuing to wait for further price falls. 
  

Outlook
Nitrates and sulphates are expected to hold a firmer tone in the short term if urea continues to stabilise and Brazilian demand remains active. While the market is not aggressively bullish, the recent shift in sentiment suggests downside pressure has eased, and prices may now consolidate at stronger levels.

Urea 

Prices have corrected lower on weak demand and returning Middle East supply, but renewed Hormuz risk and firmer Atlantic business are rebuilding upside risk.

Key Factors

Fundamentally, urea still lacks a major global demand driver, with recent pressure coming from the return of Middle East supply and softer buying interest across several import markets. 

Despite the broader correction, fresh instability in the Middle East and renewed strain between the US and Iran have brought Strait of Hormuz transit risk back into focus.

This has reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium, with participants wary that prices could quickly escalate again if vessel movement through the Gulf becomes restricted.

US NOLA has firmed, with July barges trading at $405 to $408/st FOB and an October barge at $416/st FOB.

The July NOLA import line up is around 226,000 t, including Venezuelan and Algerian supply, but the market still found support as buyers stepped back in.

Egyptian granular urea has moved sharply higher, with Mopco selling 10,000 t at $520/t FOB for August shipment to Europe, up from $490/t only a few days earlier and $440/t the prior market week.

Helwan also sold August tonnes higher at $510/t FOB, reinforcing the upward move in Egyptian pricing.

Algerian values have followed, with AOA selling 20,000 t at $514/t FOB for August shipment, while Sorfert placed tonnes at $505/t FOB into Europe.

North African strength suggests replacement values into Europe have moved materially higher, despite the wider global market still lacking strong demand depth.

Outlook
Urea prices may remain volatile in the near term. Without a major demand driver, the market still has downside vulnerability, particularly if Middle East flows remain smooth. However, firming NOLA and rapid gains in Egypt and Algeria show that sellers have regained momentum west of Suez. Any deterioration around Hormuz could quickly shift the market from cautious to sharply bullish again.

Phosphates 
Markets west of Suez remain subdued, but potential Mosaic production cuts and stronger Indian import requirements are beginning to rebuild underlying support. 

Key Factors

Phosphate markets west of Suez remain quiet, with limited demand and subdued trading activity continuing to restrict price momentum. 
Mosaic’s announcement that it plans further production cuts in the US and Brazil may help tighten regional availability and provide some support to prices. 
Sentiment in India’s DAP market is turning more bullish amid expectations of strong import requirements. 
Limited DAP availability could strengthen the Indian market once buyers return, although this has not yet translated into fresh enquiries or concluded business. 
Developments in the Middle East remain an important market risk, particularly given the region’s role in phosphate and sulphur supply. 
Participants are monitoring whether renewed instability could disrupt product flows, increase freight and logistical costs or place further upward pressure on phosphate production economics. 

Outlook

Phosphate markets remain subdued in the immediate term, particularly west of Suez, but the underlying tone is becoming more supportive. Mosaic’s planned production cuts, stronger prospective Indian demand, and limited DAP availability could tighten balances once purchasing activity resumes. Middle East disruption remains the principal upside risk, particularly if it affects phosphate exports or sulphur availability.

Potash 
Prices remain stable across the major markets, although softer Southeast Asian demand and continued buyer resistance in Brazil are limiting upward momentum. 

Key Factors
Granular MOP demand is beginning to weaken in Southeast Asia following the purchase of Belarusian material by Thailand at $425/t CFR. 
The Thai transaction provides a fresh regional price reference, but buying interest is now starting to moderate. 
Brazilian MOP prices remain steady at $390 to $405/t CFR. 
Buyer resistance in Brazil remains strong, restricting suppliers’ ability to achieve higher prices. 
Healthy Brazilian inventories are also reducing the urgency for buyers to secure additional tonnes. 
European suppliers indicate that prices are positioned to increase during Q3 due to limited availability for prompt delivery. 

Outlook Potash prices are expected to remain steady in the near term as softer Southeast Asian demand, strong Brazilian buyer resistance and healthy inventories limit immediate upside. However, Europe is developing a firmer outlook for Q3, with constrained prompt availability likely to support higher prices as buyers return to the market. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1802	1.3537	1.1465

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
July 2026	145-150	175-188	200	445-455