ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Global grain markets remained volatile over the week as persistent Black Sea disruption continued to underpin wheat prices, but abundant global supply, subdued export demand and favourable US weather repeatedly capped rallies. Markets increasingly shifted their focus towards Northern Hemisphere harvest progress and next week’s USDA report, with price direction remaining highly sensitive to geopolitical developments.

Key Factors:

• Black Sea tensions remained the dominant market driver, with continued attacks on ports, vessels and export infrastructure supporting wheat. However, futures became progressively less responsive as traders judged much of the disruption to be already reflected in prices.
• Global wheat fundamentals stayed broadly bearish. Improving Russian production prospects, expectations for larger Australian supplies and weak international buying offset geopolitical support, leaving export demand as the market’s principal weakness.
• Corn markets came under sustained pressure from favourable US weather, strong crop development and rising South American production estimates. Robust export sales and steady ethanol demand offered support but were insufficient to change the broader bearish outlook.
• European grain markets struggled to find direction. Harvest progressed across the continent and UK, while weak physical demand, a stronger euro and constrained exports weighed on MATIF and London wheat despite ongoing Black Sea uncertainty.
• Market sentiment remained highly reactive to macro events. Energy prices, currency movements and shifting geopolitical headlines continued to drive intraday volatility, while traders increasingly reduced risk ahead of the USDA August supply and demand report.
  
  

Outlook
Attention now turns to the USDA August report, alongside US weather forecasts and developments in the Black Sea. Unless export demand improves or geopolitical disruption intensifies further, ample global grain supplies are likely to limit sustained price gains, although volatility is expected to remain elevated as harvest progresses across the Northern Hemisphere.

Malting Barley

The malting barley harvest has now started in Scandinavia where initial yields are reported to be average to slightly above average. Quality is slightly higher in nitrogen at ~1.5% but very much in line with demand requirements. Elsewhere in Europe the harvest is complete, yields are certainly well down on normal, and protein and retentions are higher than normal. Wheat driven price rallies are helping to support feed barley prices and consequentially malting barley selling ideas are rising away from consumer buying targets. Consequentially we are seeing minimal trade with first hand buyers (maltsters/brewers) currently.

Key Factors:

• Continued attacks in the Black Sea region are disrupting supply lines, and this is supporting EU prices as it is expected that Europe will pick up the demand.
• Below average yields and variable quality throughout large parts of Europe have eroded a fair portion of the malting barley surplus, but maltsters could flex intake specs to make more supplies available.
• UK quality is very variable and well below average in both quality and quantity. Winter barleys yields are typically down 15% as an average with springs very range bound with some areas in line with their average and others 50% down.
• High screenings and poor retentions could see greater quantities of UK barley enter the feed market.
• UK Malting barley buyers continue to site lack of demand and a need to see more spring samples before making any decisions about procurement.
• Minimal farmer selling continues to support prices as this lack of liquidity is impacting the ability to trade.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, prices will remain affected by wheat lead market movements with feed barley prices setting the floor for malting markets. Looking further forward, the UK malting barley market will need to establish how lenient it is going to be on its intake specs. Should they remain very strict then we will need to see a significant flow of barley down from Scotland and perhaps the odd cargo from Denmark. However, if specs are flexed then we could see premiums fall significantly as demand remains generally sluggish.

Feed Barley

England’s barley harvest has delivered mixed yields and quality after a challenging season, with feed barley demand expected to remain supported by competitive pricing despite weaker overall prices and uncompetitive export prospects.

Key Factors:

• The winter barley harvest is now completed in England, a mixed bag overall but did not perform too badly given the challenging season. The spring barley harvest continues, and we see the same theme of mixed yield and quality week on week. However, we still have not seen enough samples to make confident assumptions on the feed/malting split.
• Feed barley prices continue to feel strong, however flat prices are lower week on week as futures come under pressure.
• Barley is pricing competitively into feed rations, which should keep demand supported as we head into the winter.
• Export markets, once again, still do not calculate vs other cheaper origins available.
  
  

Outlook
It is looking as though barley prices will remain strong, unless we see a continuation of the last weeks’ pressure in futures markets, which will continue to take the lead from geopolitical events.

Rapeseed

Over the past week, oilseed markets remained volatile, with macro sentiment and energy markets continuing to dictate direction despite mixed agricultural fundamentals. Improved US weather pressured soybean, while renewed Chinese demand offered intermittent support. Crude oil remained highly reactive to geopolitical headlines, creating swings across vegetable oils. Canadian canola showed some limited strength as dry Prairie conditions persisted, while MATIF rapeseed stabilised after testing key technical support.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans traded with a softer tone overall as beneficial rainfall across key US growing regions improved crop prospects and extracted some weather premium, despite forecasts expected to turn drier later in the month. Weekly crop conditions held steady, suggesting recent moisture has relieved some stress during pod filling. Export demand remained supportive, with China purchasing over 1.2mmt of US soybeans, although the market struggled to build momentum from these sales. Farmer selling remained subdued at lower price levels, indicating producers are reluctant sellers, but with record Brazilian production estimates continuing to weigh on longer-term sentiment, buyers remain comfortable waiting for opportunities.
• Energy markets continued to experience significant headline-driven volatility. Prices swung sharply throughout the week as markets reacted to changing commentary surrounding Middle East negotiations, before settling little changed overall. While underlying US oil fundamentals remain tight, traders continue to focus primarily on potential supply disruption risks and shipping flows rather than traditional supply and demand indicators. This ongoing uncertainty continues to influence vegetable oil markets, although volatility has eased compared with recent weeks.
• ICE canola recovered well after early weakness on a short week, finding support despite a public holiday interrupting trade. Dryness across southern growing areas remains a concern, although average daytime temperatures have prevented conditions from deteriorating more rapidly. Chinese demand has also become more supportive as improving crush margins increase the competitiveness of Canadian origin. Technically, the market respected longer-term moving average support before recovering, suggesting buyers remain active on dips while crop development continues to be closely monitored.
• MATIF rapeseed experienced another volatile week, initially breaking below its longer-term trendline before finding support around the 100-day moving average and the psychologically important €505 area. Although attempts to regain the previous uptrend have so far been unsuccessful, the market has stabilised and moved back into €510-525 trading range for now. Weakness in vegetable oils and fluctuating energy markets continued to sway direction, but seasonal tendencies are beginning to improve, and speculative selling appears to be slowing. With harvest pressure gradually fading, attention is increasingly turning towards logistics, inland waterway disruptions and whether technical support can continue to hold.
  
  

Outlook
Markets are likely to remain driven by a combination of weather, export demand and wider macro sentiment. US forecasts will remain critical for soybeans as crops progress through key development stages, while crude oil is expected to continue influencing vegetable oils through broader market sentiment. Canadian canola will remain sensitive to Prairie weather, and MATIF rapeseed now needs to hold recent support levels.

Oats

Trade remains hard to establish with many Scandinavia market participants still on holiday. Farmers are also not selling, and this is not helping consumers who are trying to take some cover ahead of the seasonal buying period of Oct/Nov. Feed markets are also being supported by the rallies in wheat prices and this is helping to add a floor to milling oat values.

Key Factors:

• Significantly below average yields in the UK following the dry growing season could see a much tighter balance sheet than previously anticipated. 
• High feed wheat and barley prices are supporting demand for feed oats, and this may see greater on farm feed usage in the UK especially if quality is below spec.

• Farmer selling remains very slow with many growers’ content on storing their oats given the general comfort in logistical pressures. 
• Sample pass rates to date through our lab are well below last year with only 57% achieving >48kg/<8% screenings which is 10% down on last year.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, strong wheat prices will continue to support oat prices as consumers look to take advantage of the discounted feed oats. The lack of farmer selling could also add support as consumers and merchants look to fill stores post-harvest. Looking further forward, UK oat markets could need to price itself out of export competitiveness to maintain domestic demand requirements. Finally, the production and quality of the Scandinavian harvest will ultimately drive the EU market, especially if the UK needs to price itself closer to import parity.

Pulses

The pulse market remains relatively unchanged this week, with very little fresh news to influence price direction. Market participants continue to focus on wider macroeconomic developments, particularly the potential impact of geopolitical events on global freight markets and foreign exchange movements, both of which remain key variables for import and export competitiveness.

Key Factors:

• The Winter bean harvest continues to make further headway, with the northern half of the UK not a million miles away from wholesale harvesting, as many have already dipped in to some of the early fields. We are seeing growing reports of Springs cut in the southern half of the UK, although unsurprisingly as you head further north, more are holding on. Yields and quality continue to be highly variable, although as a trend, the typical things we see tend to be high levels of broken/split beans, elevated levels of admix (primarily weed seeds), high levels of insect damage and a variability and mottling of colour across the face of many heaps – unsurprisingly everything so far has fallen within an 11.5-13.5% moisture range.
• Whilst there are some loose Human Consumption interest, UK quality and values do not align to compete. The mentioned variability in colour causes issues when processing beans for export as they result in a non-homogenous sample, and the high levels of broken/split lead to higher loss rates and associated deductions on intakes for growers when pushed through the cleaning lines. On top of this, the Baltic bean crop is nearing harvest, and prices are aggressively lower than the UK. Whilst Baltic Feed beans are a significant discount vs UK, Human Consumption beans have reportedly traded at a 15-20EUR/mt premium, which would still translate to a significant discount compared to UK Feed, let alone Human Consumption. In short, if we look at UK beans in isolation, based on the samples coming through the lab so far, there should be a healthy premium for those which make a Human Consumption grade due to a comparatively low pass rate, HOWEVER, when the global prices are factored in, both UK Feed and Human Consumption are significantly over-priced, and so it is unlikely we’ll see significant volumes of UK export business written this year, and that business which is will be at a negligible premium to the domestic market in all likelihood.
• It may only be 6^th August, and conditions are obviously exceptionally dry out there right now, however it is time to start thinking about the coming drilling campaign. For those considering drilling beans, engage with the PGRO resources and talk to your agronomist. With the correct level of nutrition, beans can offer strong yields and a healthy gross margin, whilst leaving fields in great shape for following cereal crops. The key pieces of preparation are getting on top of your indices early and getting them into a good quality seed bed.
• The bean market is still doggedly tracking London Wheat Futures up and down on the new crop, although nearby beans continue to trade their own story – something which it is likely the more deferred positions will start to do in the not-too-distant future too.
• Turning to peas, harvest is now almost complete across the UK and Europe, with yields and quality remaining highly variable. While some areas have performed well, overall production has been inconsistent and quality assessments continue as more samples become available.

• Market activity remains quiet, with little buying interest currently as consumers continue to work through old crop stocks. Sellers are focused on final quality analysis and storage, while buyers await a clearer picture of available specifications.

• Near-term price direction will depend on the final quality split between feed and human consumption grades and the timing of buyers returning to the market once old crop inventories have been exhausted.

• As harvest progresses, growers should continue to monitor crops for Pea Bruchid Beetle where relevant and follow the latest PGRO technical guidance. Farm Trading representatives remain available to discuss crop quality, marketing opportunities and wider agronomic support.
  
  

Outlook
Attention will remain firmly on harvest progress and the quality profile of both beans and peas over the coming weeks. While buyer activity is expected to stay cautious in the near term, clearer supply data should improve price discovery. Export competitiveness, domestic demand, currency movements and wider geopolitical developments will remain the key factors shaping market direction as the harvest campaign draws to a close.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Production is now underway for both wheat and barley, and OSR deliveries are progressing well across the board. While recent pockets of rain have been welcomed, further moisture will be essential for successful OSR establishment and, shortly after, cereal drilling.

As harvest draws to a close for many growers, variety decisions are now front‑of‑mind. Our ADM seed catalogues are available to support confident, well‑informed choices for the 2026/27 season.

Key Factors:

Oilseed Rape 

Winter oilseed rape continues to be one of the strongest contributors to farm profitability, and success starts with selecting the right genetics.

ADM Agriculture’s OSR portfolio is built around:

• High output and excellent oil content
• Strong agronomic performance
• Robust disease resistance packages
  
  

To support confidence at establishment, we offer a sale‑or‑return option on Duplo OSR, allowing customers to return up to 75% of their seed if conditions do not come right.

Establishment schemes are also available across several leading varieties:

LG Academic, Karat, LG Atom – via the ADM Establishment Scheme

DK Excited, DK Excentric – via the Bayer Establishment Scheme

For growers facing cabbage stem flea beetle pressure, companion cropping remains a valuable tool. Species such as fenugreek, buckwheat and berseem clover can help support establishment by creating distinct odours and canopies that may deter flea beetle activity, while also contributing to nitrogen fixation.

We also have consignment stocks positioned around England for collection when weather windows open. Speak to your farm trader for locations. Several varieties are available for next‑day delivery for growers needing rapid turnaround.

Winter Wheat Seed

KWS Scope (Group 4 Hard) is emerging as a standout option, combining:

• The stiffest straw package available in a feed wheat
• Excellent yield potential
• A strong agronomic profile
• Suitability for early drilling
  
  

In treated trials, KWS Aintree led the pack with a 2026 mean yield of 111%, showing exceptional consistency across all six sites (110–112%).

Other strong performers this season include RGT Hexton and KWS Arnie, both demonstrating impeccable cleanliness throughout the year.

On the disease side, Sparkler remains a compelling option, with a septoria score of 7.2 – a key advantage given the damaging nature of septoria tritici in wheat.

Hybrid Barley Seed

Hybrid barleys continue to prove its value not only as a productive crop but also as a powerful agronomic tool. Its strong vigour supports weed suppression, and its deeper rooting helps maintain performance in drought‑prone seasons – a growing consideration across the UK. Varieties include Inys, SY Barnabus and SY Quantock are some of our top picks for hybrid barley, not only offering impressive yield advantages but also strong disease and agronomic packages.

Outlook
With seed production progressing ahead of schedule and drilling decisions now coming into focus, attention will soon shift to securing timely establishment. Growers are well‑placed to move confidently into the 2026/27 season, supported by strong genetics, establishment schemes and reliable supply.

Fertiliser

Global fertiliser markets remain well supported, although the rapid price increases seen through July are beginning to lose some momentum. Supply concerns continue to underpin values across most nutrients, while buyers remain cautious as they assess affordability against crop margins. Much of the market’s attention now turns to India’s upcoming urea import tender on 11th August, which is expected to provide the next major indication of pricing direction for global nitrogen markets.

Urea
The pace of price increases in the urea market has slowed this week, although the overall market remains firm. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding export availability from the Middle East continues to support international values, while confirmation that China has released a second round of export quotas could help temper further upside if sufficient volumes reach the market. The Indian tender on 11th August will be closely watched, with its outcome likely to influence pricing through the remainder of the summer. For UK buyers, replacement costs remain well supported, and whilst values appear to be consolidating, there is currently little evidence of any significant downward correction.

Ammonium Nitrate
The ammonium nitrate market continues to derive support from elevated European production costs, particularly natural gas. Ammonia prices remain considerably higher in Northwest Europe than in other regions, reflecting sustained gas prices and reinforcing manufacturers’ production economics. Demand across Europe remains relatively subdued due to ongoing dry weather in several regions, but this has done little to weaken pricing as replacement costs remain firm. UK availability remains good, although current market conditions suggest limited scope for substantial price reductions ahead of autumn purchasing.

Nitrogen Sulphur (NS) Grades
Nitrogen sulphur products continue to follow the broader nitrogen market, with sulphur values remaining firm. Tight availability of sulphate feedstocks, combined with restricted Chinese exports of ammonium sulphate, has maintained upward pressure on raw material costs. Whilst drought conditions across parts of Europe have softened immediate demand, UK interest in NS grades remains strong as growers increasingly recognise the importance of sulphur in maximising nitrogen use efficiency, particularly across cereals, oilseed rape and grassland.

Phosphates
The phosphate market remains balanced but firm. Tight global supply continues to offset relatively subdued purchasing activity as buyers remain cautious over affordability. There are signs that prices into India may strengthen over the coming weeks, which could provide further support to international values. In the UK, phosphate replacement costs remain above long-term averages, and growers who have delayed applications over recent seasons may increasingly look to rebuild soil phosphate reserves ahead of autumn cropping.

Potash
Global potash markets continue to strengthen, driven by robust international demand and limited prompt availability from major producers. Many suppliers remain heavily committed following large contract settlements earlier this year, leaving relatively little product available for immediate shipment. Although domestic Chinese prices remain under pressure due to weaker local demand, this has yet to influence international export markets. UK potash prices remain relatively stable but continue to be supported by firm replacement costs, reinforcing the importance of forward planning for autumn applications.

Liquid Fertiliser
The UK liquid fertiliser market remains closely aligned with developments in both the urea and ammonium nitrate sectors. Firm international nitrogen values continue to support replacement costs for UAN, whilst demand for liquid fertiliser remains strong across UK arable farms due to its operational efficiency and application accuracy. A significant proportion of liquid fertiliser volumes are now committed through forward purchasing and on-farm tank agreements, reducing the amount of product available on the spot market. As suppliers begin planning for the 2027 application season, growers considering liquid fertiliser are encouraged to engage early to secure both availability and competitive pricing.

Outlook
The fertiliser market remains finely balanced. Whilst the rapid upward movement seen during July has eased, global supply fundamentals continue to favour a firm market. The outcome of India’s urea tender next week is likely to provide the next significant direction for nitrogen pricing, whilst tight availability across phosphate, potash and sulphur markets continues to support replacement values. For UK growers, opportunities to secure autumn nutrient requirements should continue to be monitored closely, as current market conditions offer little indication of a significant fall in fertiliser prices over the short term.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1650	1.3464	1.1550

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Aug26	165-180	180-195	212	425-435