Market Reports

Wheat

Global grain markets weakened overall amid a bearish USDA report confirming ample wheat and corn supplies, though volatility persisted due to geopolitical tensions and shifting weather patterns. While US wheat found intermittent support from Plains dryness, strong global stocks, currency pressure in Europe, and improved weather outlooks broadly reinforced a softer price environment.

Key Factors:

• The USDA report set a bearish tone, with US and global wheat ending stocks exceeding expectations. Increased production forecasts across Russia, the EU, and Argentina reinforced the perception of abundant global supply, pressuring prices across major exporting regions.
• Weather remains a key driver, with improving rainfall forecasts in the US Plains easing earlier drought concerns, though persistent dryness in Kansas and surrounding states continues to lend intermittent support to Kansas City wheat.
• European wheat markets faced additional pressure from a stronger euro, reducing export competitiveness. Combined with large regional stocks and Black Sea competition, this has pushed Matif futures towards multi-month lows.
• Corn markets were comparatively stable, supported by solid export demand and steady US balance sheets, though higher global stocks and weaker crude oil limited upside momentum.
• Geopolitical developments, particularly US and Iran tensions and volatility in energy markets, contributed to choppy trading conditions, influencing fund flows and short-term sentiment across agricultural commodities.
  
  

Outlook
The market remains delicately balanced between weather-driven support and fundamentally bearish supply dynamics. While near-term volatility will hinge on US Plains weather and geopolitical developments, the weight of ample global stocks and strong competition suggests the path of least resistance for wheat prices remains to the downside.

Malting Barley

For another week we see a total lack of engagement in the malting market with no bids from the maltster and very little farmer selling. 

Key Factors:

• Plantings are reported at 99% complete in England and 75% in Scotland for barley, with favourable warmer and showery weather in the forecast providing good growing conditions.
• With ample old crop supplies and high stocks, we see no demand from maltsters until at least January 2027.
• With firm feed values we are seeing a continued squeeze on premiums.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop malting markets are difficult to find, and we are seeing balances moving on as feed barley at good values.  We may see some further malting barley interest in April/June as small top ups may be needed but if these appear they will be limited. For new crop, there is still a long way to go until the crop is in the barn, if we see any crop issues then this could stimulate the market.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets are finding some support on firmer wheat prices, and a slow pace of farmer selling, particularly on old crop positions as the end of the year looms and on farm stocks start to run dry.

Key Factors:

• Markets are slightly higher week on week, largely driven by slow procurement from farm with stocks now running tight.
• Following strength in wheat prices, barley is now trading at a much more attractive level relatively, which could support demand.
• Export markets are still tricky and buying interest is difficult to come by at competitive levels however buyers from Ireland, Portugal and the Netherlands are kicking tyres in the UK on old crop, which has the potential to provide support if destination prices improve.
• Dry conditions have led to a good planting programme over recent weeks, however the market is starting to worry about dry conditions impacting the crop. New crop domestic demand is subdued, meanwhile the export floor remains a way away.
  
  

Outlook
We do not see much downside to old crop prices with dwindling stocks. New crop looks once again like more of a macro story from a flat price perspective. Expected downside to the barley-wheat spread is limited until farmer selling improves.

Rapeseed

Ag markets traded a choppy, headline-driven week with macro sentiment swinging between risk-on and risk-off. Energy remained the key driver, with crude volatility around the $100/barrel level influencing veg-oil direction and, in turn, oilseed pricing. Currency also played a pivotal role, with EUR/USD strength capping upside in MATIF. Despite intermittent strength, markets repeatedly tested support levels, highlighting underlying indecision as traders balanced geopolitical developments, demand signals, and seasonal supply pressure.

Key Factors:

• The soybean complex saw two-sided trade, ultimately holding a broadly sideways pattern. Early strength was driven by meal demand, but gains were capped by ongoing Brazilian harvest pressure and uncertainty around Chinese demand. Trump’s latest words have reinforced a positive Chinese relationship which has supported the soy complex. CONAB’s Brazil production estimate near 179mmt reinforced ample supply expectations. Soyoil remained closely tied to crude, dragging the complex lower midweek before recovering on improved sentiment Strait access.
• Crude was the dominant external driver, with sharp intraday swings reflecting evolving geopolitical developments. Prices briefly pushed above $100/barrel amid supply disruption concerns, before retracing on intermittent optimism negotiations. Despite official statements partial reopening of shipping routes, actual flow through the Strait remains unclear, keeping a risk premium embedded in the market. The repeated failure to decisively break higher suggests resistance at current levels, but equally, downside is supported by ongoing logistical uncertainty. This leaves crude rangebound but highly reactive to headlines.
• Canola continued to trade within a narrow range. Early weakness was offset by modest recoveries, though rallies struggled to hold amid farmer selling and external pressure from Soyoil. The market briefly slipped below the 50-day moving average, a mildly bearish technical signal, but is in the process of trying to reclaim ground. Price action suggests consolidation rather than trend reversal, with momentum indicators neutral. A decisive close back above key moving averages would be needed to find any further upside.
• MATIF rapeseed remained technically resilient but lacked upside follow-through. Prices oscillated around trendline support, with both old and new crop contracts showing slightly different structures but similar hesitation. The stronger euro consistently capped rallies, offsetting supportive cues from the broader oilseed complex and potential policy-driven optimism around EU biofuel demand. While the uptrend technically remains intact, repeated failures to build on gains raise the risk of a corrective move if support levels give way.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain highly sensitive to macro developments, particularly energy and currency. Crude direction will continue to dictate veg-oil and oilseed sentiment, while any tangible improvement in shipping flows could ease risk premium. Soybeans face ongoing pressure from South American supply, limiting upside without fresh demand. Canola and rapeseed are technically at support. Short term, expect continued rangebound trade with volatility driven by headlines rather than fundamentals.

Oats

The oat trade is in a lull period with most millers awaiting the next flush of demand from retail customers before looking to take any additional old crop top ups or fresh new crop purchases. The rally in commodity prices caused by the Iran war is not being directly transferred to oat markets as buyers see oats as less impacted by wheat prices and more influenced by oat S&D fundamentals. However, high fertiliser and high fuel prices combined with low oat values will start to reduce oat plantings as growers look for better gross margin crops. Planted area reductions are already expected in the key exporting nations of Scandinavia and the UK, increasing the pressure on achieving good yields from the crops that have been planted.

Key Factors:

• Limited buying pressure is helping to prevent any real nearby price rally; however, this is offset by minimal farmer selling, therefore prices remain largely unchanged.
• Low oat prices are seeing increased demand from the UK livestock sector, with compounders looking to take advantage of relatively cheap oat prices vs barley.
• High fertiliser costs are making growers question whether they should continue to plant crops that are not yet in the ground.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, old crop prices are reliant on additional demand to help push prices higher, but in the medium to long term values will be determined by new crop production.

Pulses

Another week of broadly glorious weather here in the UK has helped those in the very final throws of late Spring drilling make much needed progress. Light overnight rainfall is enough to damp the dust, but after the winter deluge, things have finally dried out properly across the UK, and if anything, are bordering on being too dry. Ultimately, cool temperatures and rainfall at this point of the cropping cycle is ideal for pulse crops, assisting development and setting the plants up for a strong performance later. Geopolitical tensions continue to rumble on in the Middle East, although the market continues to remain broadly numb to the ebb and flow of negotiations.

Key Factors:

• Pulse markets have experienced another quiet week, with prices showing little overall movement. Old crop bean values are still holding firm, though they remain relatively expensive compared to other protein sources used in feed rations. They continue to trade at a premium of roughly £30-35 per tonne over alternatives like rapeseed meal and soybean meal for forward positions. As highlighted in recent updates, supply and demand remain broadly in balance, allowing the market to operate steadily without major disruption.

• Favourable weather has allowed strong progress in the field, and with conditions expected to stay supportive, the spring bean drilling campaign should wrap up within the next couple of weeks. For growers still making final planting decisions, beans continue to offer solid appeal – particularly due to their nitrogen-fixing properties, which can lower fertiliser needs for subsequent wheat crops. Beyond cost savings, they also support soil health and provide environmental benefits, including aiding pollinators during flowering. Our Pool remains open for further tonnage, along with a range of other contracting options. These tools can help manage risk in what is typically a thin and sometimes volatile market, offering a more structured approach to marketing.
• The global pea market continues to experience instability and cautious sentiment, with the lingering effects of the US and Iran conflict still influencing trade flows and market confidence. Buyers remain hesitant to commit to forward purchases, preferring to operate on a spot, hand-to-mouth basis. Prices are largely tracking sideways but show a slightly firmer tone heading into the new crop period as supply and logistics uncertainties persist.
• Here in the UK pea market remains relatively quiet, with most buyers well covered for the short term and only minor gaps expected before the arrival of the new crop. Buybacks have been completed, and the planting campaign is nearly finished. The focus now shifts to weather conditions and crop development, which will determine yield potential and market direction in the coming months.
  
  

Outlook
Pulse markets look set to remain steady in the near term, supported by balanced supply and demand and limited price movement. Weather will be the key driver, with timely rainfall and cooler conditions crucial for crop development and yield potential. While beans retain their agronomic appeal, global pea markets may stay cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty, with sentiment likely to remain subdued until clearer signals on supply, logistics, and new crop prospects emerge.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Temperatures are steadily climbing across the UK, with growers now closely monitoring conditions ahead of maize drilling. Sowing into warm soils supports even emergence and strong early growth, setting the foundation for crop performance. Establishing varieties in well-prepared seedbeds remains one of the most important steps for a successful season.

Key Factors:

• Spring seed availability: For those needing last-minute spring seed, we still have Laureate, Butterfly, and a limited selection of other key varieties available for immediate dispatch.
• Maize seed: Our portfolio covers a broad range of maturities and end uses, from early to late varieties suitable for forage, biogas, and grain. Our game maize range includes popular all-season blends, alongside later-maturing options for extended cover and feed.
• Small seeds: Demand for grass leys and environmental mixtures continues to increase. Our offering includes everything from wild bird seed mixtures to spring cover crops and flowering blends. Supply remains strong, with standard mixtures, bespoke blends, and individual components all available to meet varying requirements.
• Winter OSR: Forward planning is key to maximising success. Securing OSR varieties early ensures access to the best-performing options, supporting overall gross margin. Our portfolio is selected based on proven performance and agronomic traits. Leading choices include Daymon (new from DSV), offering high yields, strong oil content for bonus potential, and robust disease resistance including RlmS, TuYV, and pod shatter resistance. Alos, Karat which is the joint highest-output variety in the East/West region and includes the new Rlm12 resistance.
• We are also pleased to introduce the ADM Establishment Scheme, designed to support growers during the early stages of OSR development on selected top-pick varieties. Please contact your farm trader for further details.
• Autumn cereals: KWS Fowlmere and LG Defiance remain two of our leading options for autumn drilling. KWS Fowlmere offers very early maturity (-2), helping to reduce harvest pressure, while LG Defiance delivers consistent high yields backed by excellent disease resistance, including a rating of 8 for yellow rust.
  
  

Outlook
With favourable soil temperatures and strong seed availability across most categories, conditions are aligning well for a productive planting window. Maintaining focus on variety selection and establishment will be key to maximising crop potential throughout the season.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European prices stabilise at lower levels as ceasefire hopes build, while US weakens on strong injections and soft demand.

Key Factors:

• European natural gas futures rose to around €42/MWh but remain near multi week lows as markets increasingly price in the possibility of an extended US Iran ceasefire.
• Ongoing indirect negotiations between the US and Iran are supporting sentiment, with potential for a continuation beyond the current April 22 deadline.
• Despite this, the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted, with US naval activity and Iranian controls continuing to choke LNG flows through a route that typically handles around 20% of global supply.
• Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility is unlikely to return to full capacity until August, even under an optimistic restart scenario, limiting near term supply recovery.
• European prices are being capped by weaker demand fundamentals, with warmer weather and stronger renewable generation reducing gas consumption.
• US natural gas prices have fallen below $2.60/MMBtu, reaching their lowest levels since late October, driven by strong supply and subdued seasonal demand.
• Storage dynamics are increasingly bearish, with a 50 Bcf injection reported for early April, exceeding expectations and accelerating weekly builds.
• Mild weather conditions are expected to persist, allowing above average storage injections to continue over the coming weeks.
• The US market remains largely insulated from global disruption, supported by near record production levels and limited ability to increase LNG exports further.
  
  

Outlook
European gas markets are beginning to stabilise but remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of Qatari supply recovery. While ceasefire progress may limit further upside, structural tightness remains. In contrast, the US market is firmly in a bearish seasonal phase, with strong supply and weak demand expected to keep prices under pressure in the near term.

Ammonia

Tight global balance persists with East of Suez markets under increasing procurement pressure.

Key Factors:

• Global ammonia benchmarks are expected to edge higher as supply remains constrained across most regions despite tentative geopolitical de-escalation signals.
• East of Suez markets are particularly tight, with limited availability coinciding with a recovery in Indian demand as downstream operations resume.
• India is increasingly active in the market, and procurement challenges are becoming more evident as buyers struggle to secure prompt tonnes.
• FACT’s decision to cancel and reissue its 8,000 tonne tender highlights the lack of available supply and difficulty in achieving workable pricing levels.
• The imbalance between recovering demand and restricted supply options is intensifying competition for available cargoes.
• Ongoing constraints from earlier Middle East disruption, combined with limited alternative supply sources, continue to underpin the market.
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia markets remain structurally tight with a firm upward bias. As demand recovers across key import regions, particularly India, and supply remains constrained, prices are expected to continue edging higher. Any easing will depend on a meaningful increase in available supply, which remains uncertain in the near term.

Nitrates and Sulphates

Flat European sentiment masks a tightening global AN fundamental, while sulphates track broader nitrogen stability.

Key Factors:

• European nitrate markets are expected to remain broadly flat, with pricing held in place by ongoing uncertainty in gas markets and continued subdued demand.
• Weak field activity and cautious buying behaviour are limiting upward momentum despite elevated input costs.
• Ammonium nitrate continues to diverge from the wider complex, with global indicators expected to firm further on tightening supply.
• Ongoing constraints, particularly linked to Russian export restrictions and infrastructure disruption, continue to reduce available tonnes into the global market.
• This tightening supply backdrop is supporting AN pricing despite relatively muted demand in key regions such as Europe.
• Ammonium sulphate markets are expected to hold steady, with pricing direction closely linked to movements in urea and the broader nitrogen complex.
• Market participants remain cautious, monitoring urea price trends as a leading indicator for sulphate direction.
  
  

Outlook
European nitrate markets are likely to remain stable in the near term, constrained by weak demand and uncertain energy costs. However, global ammonium nitrate fundamentals remain firm, with supply side pressure expected to continue supporting prices. Sulphates are expected to track sideways with a slight upward bias, dependent on broader nitrogen market strength.

Urea

Market remains structurally tight with India driving price discovery and fresh Iranian disruption reinforcing upside risk.

Key Factors:

• Global urea prices remain firmly supported as supply tightness persists, with ongoing disruption in the Middle East continuing to restrict available export volumes.
• India’s latest IPL tender has set a strong price signal, with counters issued up to L10 WCI at $969/t CFR and L5 ECI at $966/t CFR, reflecting aggressive procurement positioning.
• Initial lowest offers came in at $935/t CFR WCI and $959/t CFR ECI, just below the previous record high of $981/t CFR set in November 2021, highlighting the elevated price environment.
• Total participation was significant, with over 5.9 million tonnes offered against a requirement of 2.5 million tonnes, though much of this volume remains conditional on origin and logistics.
• Supply into India remains highly uncertain, particularly from the Middle East, with approximately 500,000 tonnes from earlier RCF business still effectively stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz.
• IPL has now required bidders to declare cargo origin, underlining the market’s sensitivity to Gulf sourced tonnes and ongoing logistical risk.
• A fresh bearish supply shock has been avoided, with Iran instead reintroducing a ban on urea and ammonia exports from 13 April to prioritise domestic consumption.
• While some Iranian production is gradually resuming, key producers remain offline or constrained, limiting any near-term export recovery.
• Iranian FOB targets have moved higher, with producer indications around $750/t FOB, reflecting the broader strength in global pricing.
• The combination of restricted Middle East supply, uncertain logistics and strong import demand from India continues to underpin global benchmarks.
  
  

Outlook
Urea markets remain highly elevated with strong underlying support from supply disruption and aggressive demand from India. The reintroduction of Iranian export restrictions reinforces the tightness in available supply, while ongoing uncertainty around Middle East logistics continues to add risk premium. Prices are expected to remain volatile and well supported in the near term, with further upside possible if supply constraints persist or Indian demand remains aggressive.

Phosphates

Indian demand returns to the market, reinforcing an already tight global supply backdrop.

Key Factors:

• Phosphate prices are expected to move higher again this week, supported by renewed buying interest from India.
• Increased confidence around government subsidy support has brought Indian DAP buyers back into the market, reactivating a key demand centre.
• India’s return is significant given previously subdued activity and is likely to absorb a meaningful portion of already limited global supply.
• Global availability remains extremely tight, with restricted exports from key origins and ongoing feedstock pressures continuing to constrain production.
• Buyers across all regions are facing limited sourcing options, increasing competition for prompt tonnes.
• Sellers retain strong price setting power in the current environment, with little incentive to discount given constrained supply and improving demand signals.
• Affordability remains a limiting factor but is being outweighed by the need to secure supply ahead of application windows.
  
  

Outlook
Phosphate markets remain firmly bullish, with India’s return adding a fresh layer of demand into an already supply constrained system. Prices are expected to continue trending higher in the near term, with limited downside risk unless there is a meaningful improvement in global availability.

Potash

Logistics driven strength builds as demand remains robust across key import regions.

Key Factors:

• Potash prices have moved higher across key regions, primarily driven by increased freight and insurance costs linked to ongoing geopolitical disruption in West Asia.
• Suppliers remain bullish, actively targeting incremental price increases to pass through elevated logistical costs rather than fundamental supply tightening.
• Unlike nitrogen and phosphates, potash supply chains remain largely intact, with no major production or export disruptions reported.
• Demand remains a key supportive factor, with strong import activity observed across major regions including the US, Brazil and Southeast Asia.
• Brazil continues to lead price direction, supported by sustained restocking and seasonal demand, reinforcing global price floors.
• Southeast Asia demand is also strengthening, aided by improved affordability and supportive agricultural economics.
• The US market is seeing increased import flows, though pricing remains more subdued relative to Brazil, creating potential for further arbitrage driven movements.
  
  

Outlook
Potash markets are expected to continue trending modestly higher in the near term, driven primarily by logistics and sustained demand rather than supply disruption. While fundamentals remain balanced, elevated freight costs and strong buying interest across key regions should support further gradual price increases.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1492	1.3554	1.1798

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Apr26	153-163	174-186	199-209	450-460