Market reports

Wheat

Grain markets continued to weaken across US, European, and UK exchanges amid macroeconomic instability, strong currency fluctuations, and favourable global crop weather. Despite bullish moves in soybeans driven by US-China trade optimism, wheat and corn remain under pressure due to strong production prospects and limited fresh demand.

Key Factors

• Currency pressure continues to be a big driver in these markets, with the euro’s climb to a 3.5-year high against the US dollar has intensified pressure on euro-denominated grain prices. This strength has reduced the competitiveness of European exports, contributing to MATIF wheat contracts falling to fresh lows. Technical analysis shows €207–€200/t as key support zones for Sep’25, with downside momentum still intact unless reversed by a significant external catalyst.
• US Crop Progress has been helped along by favourable weather across the US Midwest has allowed corn planting to reach 12% complete – above both last year and the 5-year average. Soybeans and spring wheat are also advancing well. With no major weather disruptions expected into early May, the usual springtime risk premium in grain prices is fading, keeping pressure on futures despite seasonal expectations of volatility.
• Soybeans have emerged as the outlier in an otherwise bearish grain complex, supported by renewed Chinese demand for Brazilian beans and signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China. Trump’s comments about reducing tariffs and retaining Federal Reserve Chair Powell further buoyed market sentiment, helping push soybean futures to two-month highs.
• Wheat remains the weakest link, with US, MATIF, and London wheat futures all hitting contract or seasonal lows. Despite recent dips in winter wheat crop ratings, forecasts for widespread US rain – especially in the HRW wheat belt – are weighing heavily on prices. In Europe, dry weather continues but hasn’t been enough to offset global bearish sentiment or the drag from a strong euro.
• May’25 London wheat futures have experienced sharp losses, dropping nearly £7/t in one session ahead of First Notice Day. A large open interest remains, raising uncertainty around how contracts will settle. Traders are increasingly referencing the more stable Nov’25 contract for pricing decisions, as price discovery becomes complicated by technical movements and limited liquidity in the nearby market.
  
  

Outlook
With US and South American weather remaining supportive for crops and macroeconomic headwinds persisting, grains are likely to remain under pressure near term. Technical levels offer potential support, but without fresh bullish catalysts or weather scares, wheat and corn may drift sideways-to-lower, while soybeans may find continued strength from geopolitical developments and Chinese demand.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets, for another week, are close to non-existent. Crops are looking well after recent rains, although there is a moisture deficit, and we need consistent rains to keep the spring barley in good condition.

Key Factors

• Recent rains have provided relief to the crop, and overall spring barley’s are looking well. Although the weather forecasts turns drier for the next few weeks – one to watch.
• Once again demand is very slow, and the market remains gloomy about prospects heading into the new crop year.
  
  

Outlook
As is always the case at this time of year, watching weather maps is the main objective of the market. Today, crops are looking well and have benefited from recent rains. It is likely that markets will drift as premiums remain healthy and demand slow.

Feed Barley

Another exceptionally quiet week for feed barley. Old crop exports have halted as slow farmer selling keeps UK selling ideas high, meanwhile a few stocks are starting to push onto the market in France/Baltics at cheaper levels. New crop is quiet with no considerable farmer selling or consumer activity to report.

Key Factors

• French and Estonian barley is offered to Ireland at below UK replacement levels, taking the legs out of export demand.
• Domestic consumers are slow, but trade shorts are keeping a bid under the market against a reluctant farmer.
• New crop basis continues to feel pressure as sellers look to position themselves ahead of the harvest. EU Black Sea origin is much more competitive into export markets for Jul/Aug, which should undermine harvest levels.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop feed barley prices will likely stay flat, with not much trading going on, although on paper there is a good surplus that should hit the market before harvest. New crop prices should stay under pressure with slow demand, but not until we see farmers starting to make sales. Big-picture market trends will continue to be the main driver of flat prices.

Rapeseed

A short week with no major moves in market prices over the last few days. The trade remain apprehensive on the potential changes in U.S tariffs on China but are reluctant to react until anything is confirmed. U.S weather shows sign of improvement at the detriment to planting progress.

Key Factors 

• Soybean Market Volatility: A small gain in price action this week. Rain across the Midwest and Southern plains will help soil conditions but will equally delay plantings. However this isn’t a concern at the moment given the current planting pace is ahead of last year of 8% vs 7%.
• Vegetable Oils & Biofuels: Energy markets dipped in recent days following rumours that OPEC members wish to increase production from June 2025 onwards. Talks between Iran and the U.S seem to prove positive though created little price action. Veg-oil markets slowly grind higher but remain apprehensive over the EPA’s next move on mandates which are due to be discussed at the end of the month.
• Canola & Rapeseed Dynamics: Canola prices are back within touching distance of recent highs finding support from stronger U.S value but struggle to break nearby overhead resistance. No further news on Canadian/China trade discussion over the last few days. MATIF rapeseed struggled to make any major gains. May futures expire at the end of the month at a big premium to August. Currency fluctuation continues to impact short-term price direction. Recent EU rain have raised new crop yield aspirations to exceed the 5 year average, which could weigh on prices in the coming months.
• Market Uncertainty & Tariffs: Whilst trade discissions are still ongoing there is no certainty of relaxation of sanctions just yet, despite recent rumours.  Outside markets remain anxious of changes which will increase market volatility in the short-term which will impact Ag markets.
  
  

Outlook
In summary, the recent up-tick higher is likely to be capped until any new news is released.  U.S planting progress on soybeans is ahead and there are few concerns over harvest progress in South America.  Outside market direction will remain volatile, especially FX, which will likely impact Agriculture prices.  MATIF rapeseed struggled to make any gains this week, May futures expire at the end of the month at what looks like a large premium to August.

Oats

European oat markets have remained quiet as we enter the tail end of the season, waiting for the New Crop to start to show some signs of life. 

Key Factors

• We continue to see improving weather conditions across Sweden, Finland, Germany, France and the UK, helping to replenish much needed soil moisture reserves, especially in Scandinavia. Further south in Iberia, Spanish cereal crops are looking in exceptional condition.
• Feed oat markets have remained quiet over the last week, with bids few and far between. With cereal prices under pressure across the board, oats are not as attractive in diets as they once were.
• UK market activity remains quiet. Buyers are not yet quite ready to look at the new crop, and so oats remain generally undiscussed. Until we see stronger retailer demand, this is unlikely to change.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, steady as she goes for New Crop Oat demand, with recent rainfall stemming potential weather worries for now. However, it is still a long way until harvest, so watch this space.

Pulses

Following a short week, pulses have had another quiet week, with little interest. The recent rainfall has helped Spring beans off to a solid start, with standing winter crops looking in fine fettle. The forecast continues to look supportive towards crop establishment.

Key Factors

• We have started seeing the first of the Egyptian New Crop beans being cut, with quality looking good. The harvest has started a couple of weeks earlier than normal, with hotter than usual temperatures speeding ripening. GBP’s continued strength is proving a hurdle for new crop demand, as are the firm domestic prices, although we will likely see demand start to firm in the coming months.
• The continued rainfall is helping beans along nicely. Winter-sown crops still look healthy, whilst the Spring drilled crops are emerging and starting to grow with a good level of vigour. Certainly one to watch, as this crop is starting to look like it could have some strong yield potential.
• Another week of comparatively firm New crop bean premiums. The continued weather pattern of good amounts of sun mixed with rain showers is helping the crop to establish for a strong start. The underlying wheat price is a touch weaker, but the movement is again minimal, and the flat remains relatively unchanged. However, it’s likely we will see new crop bean values gradually slide lower in the coming weeks off the back of improved new crop sentiment and lower underlying wheat values, especially with imported feedstuffs continuing to provide strong competition in the feed sector.
• Whilst there is still a small amount of old crop demand for May and June, it feels like the market is winding down into new crop. The new crop planting campaign got off to a great start and initial emergence looks positive. We now need the weather to stay favourable and  waiting consumer interest to build.
  
  

Outlook
Crops expectations continue to be positive, assisted by the recent good weather. However, with the strong domestic currency, improving crop outlook and weakening ICE London wheat futures, it is likely we’ll see prices start to decline in the coming weeks. Growers should consider the range of strategic marketing options we can offer, whilst ensuring strong crop management for optimal yields. 

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As the focus moves away from spring cereal & pulse crop drilling’s, attentions are now set towards grass seed, small seed mixtures for SFI and early thoughts towards the Autumn seed requirements starting with winter oilseed rape with the crop planted looking well at present with values looking respectable for the farm income.

Key Factors:

• We are delighted to offer what we believe is a market leading portfolio of varieties including the new introductions , Maverick & Karat from NPZ Plant Breeding  & Hinsta from KWS UK. All three will support the already strong portfolio of ADM Agri oilseed rape products of which some will have limited amounts available on the popular establishment scheme.
• Grass seed mixtures \ blends for both amenity and agricultural use are available for reasonably quick delivery to suit all of your seeding requirements .
• Small seed mixtures for both SFI & game cover use continue to create interest, we have a full range of standard mixtures but if you’re looking for bespoke types then we are happy to offer these to suit your requirements .
  
  

Outlook
As May approaches and thoughts towards the Autumn seed requirements appear, we believe at ADM Agriculture that the spectrum of market leading products we have to offer are backed up with up to date market values and a wealth of knowledge regarding these markets. Please contact your local ADM Agriculture farm trader to discuss more.

This week we have launched our Small Seed Catalogue 2025, take time to browse the mixes we have on offer and their compliance to environmental schemes like SFI.

Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 5 or speak with your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
Prices steady as EU storage builds, but trade risks and mild weather weigh on sentiment.

Key Factors

• European natural gas prices held around €35/MWh as LNG imports remain firm and storage climbs to 37% post-winter.
• EU countries approved relaxed storage targets, allowing members to miss the 90% November refill goal by up to 10% if needed.
• US natural gas futures fell toward $3.0/MMBtu, pressured by record output and persistent mild weather forecasts through early May.
• US production hit a new high of 108 bcfd in April, with lower heating demand expected to support storage injections.
• Despite broader demand uncertainty, US LNG exports remain robust, reaching a record 16.1 bcfd, led by gains at Plaquemines facility.
  
  

Outlook
While European gas remains supported by stable imports and rebuilding storage, US prices may stay subdued as mild temperatures and strong production offset export momentum. Geopolitical trade friction and Chinese retaliation threats add another layer of risk as markets weigh potential hits to energy demand.

Ammonia
Global surplus continues to pressure prices despite isolated production outages.

Key Factors

• Ammonia prices extended losses in NW Europe, with values now down $167/t (−27%) year-to-date, reaching their lowest level since June 2023.
• Global oversupply remains a defining theme, with limited spot demand in both Europe and Asia despite seasonal support.
• Production disruptions persist: Trinidad continues to face gas shortages, and the 1.3 Mt/year Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) facility in Texas has yet to stabilise output.
  • A 10% US tariff on Trinidadian ammonia has cut netbacks but failed to redirect flows materially.
• East of Suez, Ma’aden’s planned 7-week shutdown of its 1.1 Mt/year plant in May will temporarily remove 120,000 t from the market, though with limited expected impact on fundamentals.
  
  

Outlook
Downward pressure is likely to persist into Q2 as supply continues to outpace consumption. European producers remain economically challenged, with spot gas prices still too high to support domestic output. Any market recovery will likely require deeper production curtailments or a meaningful rebound in demand – neither of which appear imminent.

Nitrates
AN values edge lower as spring demand wanes, but Baltic sellers remain firm.

Key Factors

• European AN prices continue to soften in late April, mirroring weak demand and broader fertiliser market caution.
• Brazilian interest for sugarcane season AN has yet to materialise at scale, with recent offers at $260/t CFR softening to sales at $240/t CFR.
• Buyers are reluctant to commit, expecting further price erosion amid stable-to-ample supply.
• Despite broader weakness, Baltic Sea producers remain well supported — some are reportedly sold out for May, highlighting tightness in key export channels.
• UK AN prices remain firm relative to international benchmarks, driven by structural spring-season tightness and continued importer caution.
  
  

Outlook
Downward pressure is likely to continue in the near term as seasonal buying in Europe fades and buyers globally stay on the sidelines. Baltic producers’ strong order books suggest some insulation from immediate softness, but broader urea-driven sentiment and global demand inertia will weigh.

Urea
Prices strengthen across regions as supply tightens and inland demand intensifies.

Key Factors

• Egypt continues to find buying interest, with Mopco selling 30,000 t for early May loading at $395/t FOB, $5/t higher than Alexfert’s recent deal. The producer is now sold out for 1H May.
• Kaltim in Indonesia has seen multiple parties bidding in the high $390s/t FOB Bontang, with levels edging toward the $400/t mark, close to Brunei’s recent $405/t FOB sale.
• In France, urea prices remain steady at €390–395/t FCA, supported by strong prompt demand from La Pallice and Bayonne. Traders report buyers are chasing larger volumes to cover farmer commitments as time runs short.
• Firm offers from North Africa and limited volumes in the distribution network are preventing any material softening in Europe despite seasonality.
• In the US Midwest, prices surged to $505–530/st FOB — up from $465–475/st — following NOLA strength and rising spring application demand.
• Urea affordability in the Midwest is now the worst for this time of year since 2012, compounded by widespread concern that not enough product is in place for the peak season.
  
  

Outlook
With prompt demand rising and physical availability tightening across key hubs, urea prices look set to remain firm through the coming weeks. Egyptian and Southeast Asian producers are now capitalising on bullish sentiment in the US and steady European offtake, though affordability will remain a limiting factor as planting windows close.

Potash
Tight supply and bullish sentiment set to lift prices through Q2.

Key Factors

• Prices are poised to increase further through Q2, supported by robust global demand and limited availability of spot tonnes.
• Market focus remains on China and India’s upcoming contract settlements, which are widely expected to define a new global price floor.
• In Southeast Asia, Pupuk Indonesia’s 175,000 t MOP tender remains unresolved — the counterbid of $330/t CFR was rejected by all suppliers, creating uncertainty over the tender’s future.
• The rejection of Indonesia’s bid suggests confidence among producers in holding out for higher values amid tight Q2 availability.
  
  

Outlook
With contract benchmarks pending in major importing countries and supply constraints persisting across key regions, potash prices are expected to continue rising. Rejected counterbids point to firm seller sentiment, reinforcing expectations for higher prices into late Q2.

Phosphates
Prices climb again as global tightness continues; India’s ceiling faces credibility test.

Key Factors

• DAP/MAP prices have surged to $700/t CFR across India, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, and Brazil amid firm demand and limited global availability.
• India’s Department of Fertilisers imposed a $675/t CFR cap on DAP deals, cancelling any contracts above this threshold.
• Market participants doubt the cap’s effectiveness, as Indian DAP stocks remain below 900,000 t and current global benchmarks exceed the government ceiling.
• DAP barge prices at NOLA climbed to $650/st FOB this week, the highest since March 2024, with the US Gulf assessment now up from $555/st in December.
• In 2024, Indian phosphate imports fell to 4.55 Mt – 26% below the three-year average and sharply lower than 2022’s peak of 7.3 Mt.
• India is unlikely to be able to repeat its slower import strategy this year due to depleted stocks and urgent demand for the upcoming Kharif season.
  
  

Outlook
India’s price ceiling may prove unsustainable amid rising global prices, tight supply, and its own pressing restocking needs. Market pressure suggests India will need to adjust its position or risk further falling behind in procurement as sellers command pricing power.



Our fertiliser specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 6 or speak with your Farm Trader.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.