Market Reports

Wheat

Global grain markets remain defensively positioned, with wheat struggling to sustain rallies despite periodic importer demand and weather headlines. A bearish USDA backdrop, ample Southern Hemisphere supply and intense export competition continue to cap upside, while macro factors, currencies and geopolitics drive volatility. Corn is steadier, soybeans relatively supported by biofuel optimism.

Key Factors:

• Wheat remains broadly under pressure from a sentiment point of view following last week’s WASDE, with values remaining range-bound as large supplies from Argentina, Russia and Australia dominate tenders. Saudi and Algerian buying has tightened short-term sentiment but has not offset structurally comfortable stocks or aggressive low-cost offers.
• The US market has lagged, with US wheat continuing to underperform despite cold weather risks and a weaker dollar, reflecting poor export competitiveness and ongoing fund selling. Corn exports remain robust, while soybeans outperform on strong sales, crush margins and support for soybean oil.
• European origins have shown a little more resilience, although EU prices have been buffered at times by currency weakness and logistical disruption from Ukraine, but stronger euro phases and sluggish exports are weighing. UK markets remain thin, with old-crop supplies heavy and limited urgency from consumers.
• South America still dominates the supply outlook, with favourable weather and large Brazilian and Argentine crop forecasts reinforcing perceptions of ample global availability, particularly for corn and soybeans, limiting risk premium despite localised stress in southern Argentina.
• Macro and geopolitics continue to drive volatility, with currency moves, shifting Fed expectations and renewed US – EU trade tensions linked to tariffs have amplified market swings, while easing rhetoric has periodically stabilised sentiment without changing underlying grain fundamentals.
  
  

Outlook
In the near-term, grain markets are likely to remain choppy but capped, with wheat lacking a clear bullish catalyst amid fierce export competition and comfortable stocks. Corn should stay supported by steady demand, while oilseeds may retain relative strength. Sustained upside will require either material weather disruption or a decisive improvement in global demand.

Malting Barley

Old-crop malting barley markets remain largely stagnant, with little new demand emerging. Reports of maltings closing across Europe are further weighing on sentiment, leaving the outlook for the 2026 crop looking challenging.

Key Factors:

• Some spot activity has been observed in the old-crop market over the past week, mainly driven by merchants covering short January positions. This is unsurprising given the continued lack of farmer selling, with many slow to re-engage following the festive period.
• New-crop trading has been limited but has seen some interest for January–June 2027 positions. Demand for July–December 2026 is expected to remain subdued, as end users are likely to rely on carry-in stocks rather than commit to new-crop purchases.
• In the UK, spring barley plantings remain under pressure as growers favour wheat. As a result, any production or quality issues could have a disproportionate impact on malting barley prices later in the season.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, upside potential is restricted by weak demand. However, uncertainty surrounding new-crop production means prices could move sharply higher should quality issues arise in the UK.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets are flat on the week due to weaker export demand, with farmer selling slowing as price action stagnates, while domestic demand and supported new-crop basis persist amid expectations of a low spring barley area.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley markets have flatlined on the week as export demand dwindles in the spot, however demand in domestic markets remains.
• Farmer selling is improved on pre-Christmas levels but is slower than that of recent weeks as prices become stagnant.
• New crop basis remains supported relative to recent levels, as expectations for the spring barley area remain low.
  
  

Outlook
Feed barley markets look relatively stable for the time being, with a balanced S&D on the cards and domestic demand/fed on farm usage remaining stable. Today, a significant rally doesn’t look likely without further support to macro markets.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets ended the week modestly firmer but largely rangebound, as traders still have the challenge of manoeuvring global geopolitics and volatile forex markets. A US holiday early in the week reduced liquidity, while later sessions were influenced by biofuel optimism, weather forecasts, and technical levels across oilseeds and energy. MATIF rapeseed followed external markets closely, testing but failing to decisively clear key resistance, leaving prices supported but lacking fresh momentum.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans traded in a relatively narrow range over the week, ultimately finishing slightly higher, taking back last week’s losses from a bearish USDA report. Early support came from position-squaring ahead of the US holiday and sporadic export business, including a notable meal sale to the Philippines and solid weekly export figures. However, sentiment remains dominated by the scale of Brazil’s upcoming crop, with harvest progress in Mato Grosso improving. Argentina’s hot, dry conditions added some risk premium, but not enough to materially shift the tone. Meal and soyoil were broadly steady, reflecting a market comfortable with current supply prospects but alert to any weather-driven disruption.
• Crude oil was volatile but directionless for much of the week, repeatedly failing to sustain recoveries after recent losses. Prices found technical support around the 100-day moving average, while longer-term pressure persists from expectations of higher supply into 2026. Late-week gains followed an upward revision to global demand growth forecasts from the IEA, marginally reducing the projected surplus. Currency moves and geopolitical headlines added noise rather than clarity. For oilseeds, energy markets remain an important macro input, particularly via biofuel demand expectations, but are not yet providing a strong bullish signal.
• Canola has managed to break overhead resistance, though is moving slower than what is usually expected. Canadian seed still struggles to strongly compete with Australian supply into Chinese markets, despite last week’s reduction to tariffs. Farmer psychology has shifted, with many comfortable holding seed, in anticipation of better demand, reducing short-term origination. Technically, the market repeatedly tested overhead resistance before finally closing above the 100-day moving average late in the week. This move is likely to stimulate renewed farmer selling as domestic bids improve, potentially capping near-term upside.
• MATIF rapeseed closely tracked canola and external markets, spending much of the week oscillating around key technical levels. Multiple failures at the 100-day moving average reinforced a rangebound structure, with support holding in the mid-€460s. Late-week strength was driven by gains in canola, firmer crude oil and a supportive currency backdrop. Domestically, physical markets remain quiet, with limited farmer engagement despite improved price levels. However, values are approaching attractive ex-farm levels for new crop, which could prompt increased forward selling if resistance is tested again.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, markets remain technically driven and highly sensitive to weather and policy headlines. Soybeans will continue to take cues from South American harvest progress, while crude oil’s direction will influence biofuel sentiment alongside US policy changes. Canola’s recent technical break may bring some support. For MATIF rapeseed, further rangebound trade looks likely, albeit with possibility of a wide €20 range, currency movements will remain a key variable.

Oats

Ongoing export demand into third-country destinations continues to underpin EU milling oat prices. With domestic prices remaining low, attention is turning to the size of the surplus as the market approaches the new crop.

Key Factors:

• Continued shipments to Turkey are supporting EU milling oat prices, aided by Black Sea supplies being diverted towards China. While fresh bids within the EU are limited, millers are generally well covered through existing framework agreements, and volumes are expected to move as pricing decisions are made.
• Feed oat demand into Western Europe has been steady over the past month, with cargoes originating from both Scandinavia and the Baltic states. Spain has also begun to show interest in nearby feed oat supplies, which is notable given its record crop, though any trade will provide nearby market support.
• In the UK, the weak £/€ exchange rate continues to enhance export competitiveness. With domestic prices now below export parity, the risk of further near-term price declines appears reduced. Farmer selling remains limited, as many view current values as below the cost of production.
• Low milling oat prices are likely encouraging increased on-farm feed use, and when combined with reduced forage availability, this could result in higher on-farm consumption and a smaller carryout than expected.
• New-crop prospects remain uncertain, with expectations of a significant reduction in planted area due to low spot prices and poor margins. This is pushing growers toward maximising wheat plantings and could lead to a sharp drop in oat production, potentially triggering the cyclical price rebound typically seen in oat markets.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, a major price rally appears unlikely. However, planting issues in the spring combined with tight old-crop availability could provide the conditions for prices to strengthen again.

Pulses

As we approach the end of January, pulse markets remain quiet, with the main activity having been trying to find something new to write in this report. Ultimately, to paraphrase the 1976 Led Zeppelin concert film, the song remains the same. Beans are steady and uncompetitive, whilst improving China/Canada relations are acting as a mill stone around the neck of pea prices and dragging them lower. Consumer engagement remains weak, within minimal activity, either on a direct or third party basis.

Key Factors:

• UK feed bean markets have seen little reported trade over the last week, with values nominally unchanged. Values continue to trade around £30-35/mt above competing feedstuffs such as Rapeseed Meal, leaving feed beans largely uncompetitive in rations. At these high relative values compared to other feedstuffs, beans are even at risk of losing the few friends they have in the poultry sector.
• With Australian new crop starting to flow into North Africa, UK and Baltic origin beans are certainly looking less attractive. With Ramadan due to start in less than a month, the shipment window is rapidly closing from EU origins for pre-Ramadan arrival.
•  Pea markets see very little enthusiasm from buyers or sellers, it’s as if everyone’s waiting for someone else to blink first. Following last week’s renewed trade discussions between China and Canada, there’s a flicker of optimism that trade flows could start to open up again. Still, as always, it’ll come down to the age-old question: “What’s the price?” Until that’s right, don’t expect the floodgates to burst open. Consumer interest remains limited. UK domestic demand continues to dawdle along, hampered by cautious feed buyers and export interest that could generously be described as “sleepy”.
• Pea buyback contracts are all done, most processors and merchants have locked in their 2026 volumes.
  
  

Outlook
In the week where Ed Davey managed to do what Oasis never could and break America, the outlook for pulse markets has if anything taken a slightly more negative tone this week, with support still lacking from both the feed and human consumption sectors. Beans are still uncompetitive versus alternative feedstuffs, whilst a backlog of Canadian peas are likely to start flowing in to China as the two nations relations continue to improve.             


PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Processing of Spring cereals and pulses has commenced with deliveries also taking place. Varietal choice remains a key part of setting crops up to a season of success, balancing yield, disease resistance and end market demand remains vital in the selection process.

Key Factors:

• Across the spring cropping portfolio, well-established and trusted varieties remain dominant due to their consistent performance, agronomic reliability, and market acceptance. Laureate continues to set the benchmark in spring barley for the malting and brewing sectors, supported by the strong performance of RGT Planet and the dependable agronomic profiles of Skyway and CB Score. In spring oats, Merlin and Isabel remain the leading choices, valued for both on-farm consistency and end-market support. Lynx continues to perform strongly in spring beans and remains one of the most popular options. For spring peas, the 2026 offering provides a broad and versatile range across Marrowfat, Large Blue and Yellow markets, with all seed supplied with Nuello iN as standard to enhance early vigour, support establishment and maximise yield potential, with this treatment also available as an optional addition across other spring-sown crops. Check out our Spring Seed Catalogue to find out more about the varieties we have to offer.
• Our maize portfolio covers everything from early to late-maturing varieties to meet a wide range of farming requirements. The range is suited to multiple end uses, including forage, biogas production and grain maize, allowing growers to match varieties to their system and location. Maize is an ideal crop for both forage and biogas production, offering high yields of energy-rich material, excellent digestibility for livestock, and consistent, high dry-matter output that supports efficient and reliable biogas generation. In addition, a game maize blend is available, bringing together varieties with contrasting maturity timings to ensure crops stand for longer in the field.
• As Spring approaches, focus is also turning, for some, to grass leys, environmental mixtures, fodder beet or other small seed crops. Get in touch with your Farm Trader to find out our small seed offering.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, demand is expected to remain strong for proven, high-performing spring crop and maize varieties. With established genetics delivering consistent results across a range of end uses, from malting and feed to forage, biogas and environmental schemes.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

Volatility eases in Europe while extreme cold drives a sharp rally in the US. 

Key Factors: 

• European gas futures fell more than 3% to around €38.4/MWh as geopolitical risk premiums softened following comments from US President Donald Trump indicating no immediate escalation in US–EU trade tensions. 

• The pullback followed a sharp two-day rally, but underlying fundamentals remain tight, with European gas storage down to around 48.4%, well below roughly 59.3% at the same point last year. 

• LNG competition has intensified as colder weather in Asia coincides with reduced US LNG availability, with gas being diverted to meet strong domestic demand during an Arctic blast. 

• In the US, natural gas futures surged above $5.3/MMBtu, nearing levels last seen in December 2022, driven by extreme cold forecasts through early February. 

• Temperatures are expected to remain well below normal, with a severe winter storm set to impact much of the country, significantly lifting residential and commercial heating demand. 
  
  

Outlook 
European prices may remain volatile but supported by low storage levels and heightened global LNG competition, despite short term easing of geopolitical risk premiums. In the US, prices are likely to stay elevated in the near term as extreme cold drives strong demand and risks further production disruptions, with the scale of inventory withdrawals over the coming weeks critical in determining how sustainable the rally proves to be. 

Ammonia

CBAM uncertainty meets easing supply outlook. 

Key Factors: 

• Ammonia markets remain subdued as participants continue to assess the practical impact of CBAM implementation, which is limiting trade appetite and slowing spot activity into Europe. 

• Spot liquidity remains restricted due to lingering tight fundamentals, with buyers cautious and sellers reluctant to move material aggressively amid regulatory uncertainty. 

• Market confidence around supply recovery remains tentative, with pricing unlikely to adjust materially until volumes are physically confirmed and flow consistency is demonstrated. 
  
  

Outlook 
Prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term as CBAM-related uncertainty and tight spot availability persist. Once additional US and Middle Eastern tonnes are clearly available, downward pressure should emerge, allowing ammonia values to ease into late Q1.Top of Form  Bottom of Form.

Nitrates and Sulphates

Mixed regional dynamics as CBAM uncertainty offsets selective demand strength. 

Key Factors: 

• Sulphate values are expected to soften slightly as Brazilian demand fades following recent buying, while most global markets remain well supplied. 

• Europe is the exception, where tight regional availability continues to underpin prices and limit downside risk. 

• European nitrate markets are expected to remain broadly flat, with participants awaiting greater clarity on CBAM treatment later this month before committing to new business. 

• Outside Europe, global nitrate values are likely to firm, supported by stronger demand from the US and Russia, tightening availability in those regions. 
  
  

Outlook 
Sulphate prices are likely to drift lower in most regions but remain supported in Europe by supply tightness. Nitrate markets should stay rangebound in Europe while showing firmer tones globally, with upside driven by US and Russian demand rather than European buying. 

Urea

Market holds firm as US demand and Indian tender speculation underpin sentiment. 

Key Factors: 

• Urea prices remain stable to firm across both sides of the Suez, supported by expectations of rising US demand and continued strength in key export regions including the Middle East and North Africa. 

• European buying interest remains muted, with uncertainty around CBAM costs and associated premiums continuing to discourage import activity. 

• Indian urea stocks are estimated to be around 600,000 t lower than at the same point last year, tightening the domestic balance. 

• India’s Department of Fertilisers is increasingly factoring geopolitical risk into procurement planning, prompting market talk of a potential new tender as early as next week. 
  
  

Outlook 
Near-term price direction remains skewed to the upside, with limited downside risk while US demand builds and India edges closer to re-entering the market. European participation is likely to stay light, but global fundamentals remain supportive. From a UK buyer perspective, current conditions argue in favour of covering any remaining unbought urea for the season rather than relying on a late price correction. 

Phosphates

MAP strengthens on Brazilian buying while DAP searches for a floor. 

Key Factors: 

• Global MAP prices moved higher as Brazilian importers began accepting higher levels amid a lack of alternative supply options. 

• DAP prices remain under pressure and have yet to recover in line with MAP, reflecting softer demand and cautious buyer behaviour. 

• Despite this, downside for DAP appears limited, with sentiment suggesting the market is approaching a near-term floor rather than entering a deeper correction. 

• The latest Ethiopian import enquiry is expected to provide a clearer signal on prevailing DAP price levels and supplier availability. 
  
  

Outlook 
MAP prices are likely to remain supported in the near term as Brazilian demand absorbs limited supply. DAP may continue to lag MAP, but further significant declines look unlikely given tighter availability and improving sentiment. The outcome of the Ethiopian enquiry will be key in shaping short-term DAP price direction. 

Potash

Prices steady as markets await direction from tenders and contract talks. 

Key Factors: 

• Potash prices are expected to remain broadly steady this week, with attention focused on Brazil and South-East Asia. 

• In Brazil, suppliers continue to push for higher prices, though underlying fundamentals remain weak and demand-led support is limited. 

• Market participants are awaiting the outcome of Pupuk Indonesia’s recent 145,000 t standard MOP tender, which is expected to set the near-term tone for South-East Asian pricing. 

• India’s MOP contract negotiations are anticipated to begin in the coming weeks, drawing increasing attention from global suppliers. 

• In contrast, the US and European markets continue to face downward price pressure amid subdued demand and ample availability. 
  
  

Outlook 
Near-term potash prices are likely to remain stable, with limited upside until clearer signals emerge from the Pupuk tender and India’s contract negotiations. Weak fundamentals in Brazil and soft conditions in the US and Europe suggest any rallies may struggle to gain traction. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1489	1.3424	1.1681

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Jan26	147-160	159-169	195-205	405-415