ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Global wheat markets surged as renewed Russia-Ukraine escalation raised fresh concerns over Black Sea export availability. Chicago wheat hit a daily limit and three-year highs, while MATIF and London wheat followed sharply higher. Tight European protein supplies, weather risks and renewed importer demand reinforced the bullish move, although the market remains highly sensitive to any improvement in Black Sea flows.

Key Factors:

• Black Sea risk dominates, with renewed Russian attacks, damage to export infrastructure and severe Ukrainian shipping bottlenecks increasingly shifting the market narrative from temporary disruption towards a potential structural reduction in Black Sea supply. Russia’s August exports are expected at around 2 MMT, less than half last year’s level.
• Wheat futures have broken higher, as December Chicago wheat surged 45¢/bu to the daily limit, reaching a new contract high and three-year high on the weekly chart. MATIF jumped €8.50/t, while London November wheat gained £4.50/t to close at a contract high of £210.25/t.
• Against the backdrop of Black Sea concerns, European availability is tightening. EU and UK production estimates have been cut, while European farmer selling remains limited. Protein wheat is particularly scarce, with strong demand for 12.5% wheat contrasting with more plentiful feed grades; the Balkans are reportedly carrying a premium of around €30/t for the required quality.
• Corn is also providing support, as CBOT December corn has moved above $5/bu, with US crop ratings falling to 57% good/excellent and ProFarmer suggesting yields materially below USDA estimates. EU corn prospects have also deteriorated, while strong US exports continue to underpin demand.
• As a result of all of this, alternative origins are gaining attention, with importers continuing to diversify away from Russia and Ukraine, with Egypt buying French wheat and Sudan returning to France for the first time in 18 years. Australia remains well supplied, while Argentine new crop is competitive, providing some counterweight to tightening northern-hemisphere availability.
  
  

Outlook
The near-term bias is firmly bullish, with geopolitics, weather and tightening European availability all supporting prices. However, the rally remains vulnerable to any credible improvement in Black Sea trade flows. With consumers returning to cover positions and importers actively diversifying origins, the market is likely to remain volatile, with further upside possible while disruption persists.

Malting Barley

Little has changed over the last week with northern European harvest getting closer to completion. The impacts of the drought have not only affected quality and yields but also logistics have been severely affected by the lack of water in Europe’s waterways. Buying demand remains slow and this continues to erode malting premiums due to further rises in feed barley prices. UK malting barley continues to see poor liquidity given the uncertainty surrounding intake fallbacks at end destinations. Scottish surpluses are helping maltsters blend the high nitrogen material produced in parts of England and this may see maltsters flex their specs in due course. If they do not, then we could expect to see a greater import of malting barley or malt this year.

Key Factors:

• Further disruption in the Black Sea continues to rally feed barley prices as buyers look for Europe to supply the shortfall left by the inability to access Black Sea supplies.
• Low water levels in Europe continues to cause logistical issues for the supply of goods to end consumers.
• Maltsters yet to decide on further flexibility to intake specifications.
• UK production remains highly mixed with wide yield variance across different growing regions. Consensus is for yields to be down overall by approximately 20%.
• High screenings and high nitrogen (protein) levels is currently seeing many heaps being downgraded to feed.
• Domestic UK maltsters continue to remain largely out of the market and taking the view that the UK market is too high vs other origins.
• Lack of farmer selling continues to support prices.
  
  

Outlook
Nearby price direction will continue to be affected by the situation in the Black Sea, where high grain markets will squeeze malting premiums.Looking further forward, the decision by UK maltsters to flex their specs will ultimately determine the direction of the market. Imports already calculate therefore if they do not flex their specs and insist on UK material then prices could progress higher to incentivise farmers to clean/dress their barley up to spec. But if they do switch to imports and flex their specs then we should expect prices to come lower.

Feed Barley

Feed barley remains well supported, with firm demand and lower English production keeping the market tight despite Scottish harvest pressure.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley flat prices are moving higher as futures continue to strengthen.
• Barley remains relatively competitive in animal feed rations. We expect this to continue into the winter, with fed-on-farm usage likely to remain elevated. Combined with lower production, this should keep the English market relatively tight.
• The Scottish barley harvest is yet to come fully to market, although some ex-harvest selling is expected. Truck flows from Scotland into Northern England remain strong, reflecting comparatively weak values north of the border.
  
  

Outlook
Feed barley prices will continue to ride the rollercoaster of global geopolitics, and we expect that prices could also see some support relative to other products due to attractive pricing and FOF demand.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets have endured a volatile week, with early pressure across the complex giving way to recovery midweek. Soybeans initially struggled as crop prospects remained strong, while softer soyoil and crude added further headwinds. Canola and MATIF rapeseed followed lower, with technical signals turning bearish and ready for a rebound before Wednesday’s move higher. Renewed Chinese buying, firmer vegetable oil sentiment and geopolitical headlines then helped prices recover, although resistance levels remain important.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans came under pressure early in the week, crop conditions fell 1% which was in line with expectations. Technically, the market remains in a steady uptrend, we have just managed to hit a new high, though will need to see this confirmed today. Midweek strength came from support within the complex after we saw further geopolitical risk premium added from escalations in the Black Sea. We also saw a fresh 333,000mt Chinese purchase. Meal remained relatively firm, while soyoil was pressured by softer renewable fuel sentiment and an extension to the US EPA compliance deadline which was announced late last week.
• The crude market was initially waiting to see plans from the US Treasure Secretary, though it came in line with what the market had already priced in. Later reports of progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz helped cap the risk premium, although this was subsequently offset by wider market headlines. For oilseeds, the direction of crude remains important through vegetable oil demand and biodiesel economics, but the market currently appears reluctant to build a further sustained premium on supply-risk headlines alone.
• Canola also saw a sharp correction early in the week, falling $28.60 before finding support around its moving averages and trendline. Like soybeans and MATIF, the market has failed to make a new high on its latest impulse higher, leaving the wider technical range intact. However, Chinese buyers returned midweek, with Canadian canola margins looking attractive. This provided a useful catalyst for the rebound, although the underlying Canadian supply picture and competition from soyoil remain key considerations for the months ahead.
• MATIF followed the wider complex lower, with November falling sharply and technical momentum turning bearish. The confirmed short-term reversal was followed by a breakaway gap lower and then a potential measuring gap, giving a downside target around €523 on November if the pattern remains valid. However, Wednesday’s €5.25 recovery pushed prices back through near-term overhead resistance. February now needs to break €555, the short-term high, to improve the technical picture. Fundamentally, tighter EU S&D remains supportive, although improved rainfall and planting prospects have provided some bearish pressure. We will continue to watch Black Sea developments closely.
  
  

Outlook
The outlook remains finely balanced. Soybeans retain an underlying uptrend but need to clear resistance to regain momentum, while canola and rapeseed are attempting to stabilise after their recent corrections. Crude remains headline-sensitive, but softer risk premium could limit support. For MATIF, €555 on February is the key upside hurdle; a sustained break would improve the technical picture, while failure leaves downside support levels firmly in focus as the market searches for fresh direction into September and the new crop marketing period.

Oats

European markets have seen a further bout of trade activity over the last week with several buyers looking to take advantage of fresh supplies coming from Scandinavia. The lack of water in Europe however continues to be an issue and is hyperinflating prices to facilitate the flow of oats by road rather than by sea. The war between Russia and Ukraine remains in deadlock and this has seen feed grain prices rally and thereby supported feed oat prices.

Key Factors:

• Low specific weights and poor yields are seeing severe lack of farmer selling here in the UK.
• High feed grain values and a lack of forage because of the drought is increasing the inclusion of oats in farm feed rations thereby tightening free market availability.
• Quality indicators are currently below last season’s performance. Recent laboratory results show only 61% of samples meeting the >48kg weight and <8% screenings criteria, representing a similar pass rate to last year.
  
  

Outlook
For the moment the situation in the Black Sea is likely to support all grain prices with further price movements likely should there be a greater escalation affecting grain supplies in Russia & Ukraine. Looking further ahead the UK looks likely to price at import parity to accommodate the lack of availability caused by the poor oat harvest. The lack of farmer selling could see consumers utilise Scandinavian oats to facilitate market liquidity as we approach Q4.

Pulses

Bean harvest is now effectively complete across the UK, with only the most northerly areas still to finish. Despite generally dry conditions through the week, storms and rainfall have returned in places today. Prices continue to follow movements in London wheat, although increasing availability as the final crops come off is likely to provide some resistance in the weeks ahead. Attention therefore remains firmly in London for direction on deferred values.

Key Factors:

• Human consumption demand remains subdued, with UK beans still relatively unattractive for volume demand. Domestic values remain broadly uncompetitive against Baltic and Australian origins into Egypt, where sizeable stocks are limiting fresh buying interest. Quality is also a concern, with bruchid damage and elevated levels of broken and split beans restricting human consumption opportunities. Samples received through the lab continue to show low moistures, although the recent rainfall will provide a useful test as later crops arrive.
• Rainfall has started to replenish depleted soil moisture, albeit gradually, and arrives at a useful point ahead of the autumn drilling campaign. With attention now turning towards next year’s crop, growers have an opportunity to make greater use of the PGRO resources available when planning their pulse acreage. Uncertainty around the eventual application of CBAM in the UK also adds another consideration, but well-managed beans can continue to deliver competitive yields and gross margins while providing a valuable break ahead of cereals.
• The pea market remains quiet, with little fresh fundamental news to alter the current picture. UK and European harvesting is now complete, with yields and quality varying considerably between regions. Canadian harvesting is underway, with early indications pointing towards yields slightly below initial expectations. A more reliable assessment of quality and overall supply will develop as harvest progresses and further samples become available.
• Global buying interest is beginning to improve, but buyers remain cautious and are generally unwilling to commit to significant tonnage without greater clarity around quality and specification. This continues to keep overall market activity subdued, with both sides of the market taking a measured approach.
• Near-term direction will remain closely linked to harvest outcomes, quality and the return of buying interest. With most production now in store or coming available, the balance between increasing farmer availability and renewed demand will be increasingly important in determining how prices develop through the coming weeks.
  
  

Outlook
With UK bean harvest effectively complete, increasing availability is likely to limit price upside in the weeks ahead, while London wheat remains the key guide for deferred values. Pea markets will look to Canadian harvest results for further supply signals. Improving global buying interest could support activity, but quality, demand and the pace of farmer selling will remain central to price direction.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

This season brings a wide range of strong variety choices across OSR and winter wheat, alongside flexible small‑seed solutions to support establishment and SFI aims.

Key Factors:

Oilseed Rape

For growers looking for fast delivery, we can offer a quick turnaround on Karat, Duplo, LG Atom and several other varieties within our OSR portfolio. We also have consignment stocks positioned across the UK, providing convenient collection points for last‑minute or top‑up orders. Key varieties available include Karat and LG Atom, among others.

Still deciding on the right variety for the season? Here are a few of our top picks:

• Atom – A high‑yielding Limagrain hybrid with strong vigour and useful CSFB resilience characteristics.
• Karat – Joint highest gross output on the Recommended List, backed by outstanding stem health.
• Pi Pinnacle – A leading conventional option with reliable performance.

We also have limited availability on the ADM Establishment Scheme, offering added reassurance through the early stages of crop development.

For growers facing cabbage stem flea beetle pressure, companion cropping remains a valuable tool. Species such as fenugreek, buckwheat and berseem clover can help support establishment by creating distinct odours and canopies that may deter flea beetle activity, while also contributing to nitrogen fixation.

Winter Wheat Seed

Top choices for this season include:

• KWS Scope – Stiff, strong straw, high yields and excellent suitability for early drilling.
• KWS Arnie – Clean, high‑yielding Group 2 variety with strong agronomics.
• LG Defiance – One of the highest‑yielding Group 4 hards, with good yellow rust resistance and a robust disease package.
• Sparkler – Impressive Septoria rating and the highest‑yielding Group 4 soft.
• Bamford – Market‑leading Group 3 with strong performance.
  
  

Small Seeds
Whether you’re looking for an SFI mixture, grass ley, companion crop or something else, we are on hand to help you choosing a mix to suit your requirements. Get in touch today.

Outlook
As drilling approaches, timely decisions on variety and establishment support will set crops up for success. 

Fertiliser

The fertiliser markets are currently navigating many geopolitical and environmental anomalies that continue to disrupt supply chains. Yemen’s Houthi rebels recently claimed a ballistic missile attack on a Saudi-owned oil tanker near the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This highlights the growing instability in this critical transit corridor and combined with the ongoing issues we have seen around the Strait of Hormuz free-flowing cargoes out of the area continues to look unlikely.

Environmental factors are also playing a major role in shaping market dynamics. The UK Met Office announced that the current El Nino weather event is projected to be the most intense in living history. The world’s oceans are now hotter than ever recorded with seas outside the polar regions hitting 21.1C (on average approximately 20C). El Nino combined with human-driven warming has the potential to make 2027 the warmest year on record. The Panama Canal Authority are already implementing transit restrictions which could further delay bulk commodities travelling between oceans.

On Monday US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced new measures warning any nation financially partnering with Iran would be isolated dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast”. Iran is traditionally one of the largest exporters of urea.

In India, on Saturday the RFCL urea factory halted production completely after a blast occurred in the ammonia pipeline head. The explosion caused temporary panic, but officials expect repair and restoration operations to take 10-15 days before production can resume. The factory typically outputs around 3850t of urea per day. The shutdown has raised concerns over a urea shortage for farmers during peak sowing season in the South India, Telangana region.

On Monday EU Natural Gas Price has hit a 4-year high at €68/MWh.

Urea
International urea markets pushed upwards towards the end of last week and another round of higher-priced granular sales out of North Africa could easily extend last week’s rally in the region. In Asia, Chinese export prices for prilled urea edging higher to $380-390/t fob driven by early anticipation for another major Indian urea tender.

Urea markets to Europe will continue to strengthen towards the end of this month, a traditional time for European buyers to return to the market following the summer holidays.

Nitrates and Sulphates
The nitrates and sulphates markets are currently seeing diverging trends as market players prepare for the end of summer lull and the beginning of the next application cycle. More activity is expected in the market. Sulphates are firming, driven by a lack of offers, while AS quota allocation is expected to come into full force in September. The market overall remains largely stable with weak seasonal demand. In Europe, Spanish supplier Fertiberia increased CAN 27 offers to €370/t fca, while Italian markets saw CAN 26 priced around €380/t fca with minimal overall activity. US producer AdvanSix also raised its amsul offers by $20/st across various facilities following remarkably strong summer sales. Brazil remains the only notably active AS market.

With AN, in the UK CF raised their price this week because of ammonia prices rising. A larger Q4 demand is expected as farmers bid to avoid the CBAM tax, in turn we could see Q1 demand be brought forward to exacerbate the already tight nitrogen fertiliser supply situation.

Ammonia
The ammonia market continues to operate under a regional divide, reflecting energy costs and eastern supply disruptions. In Northwest Europe, ammonia prices remain well supported thanks to natural gas costs. EU Natural gas costs reaching a near 4-year high at €68/MWh, directly inflating nitrogen production costs. Eastern buyers continue to benefit from a relative weaker price due to Hormuz trade disruptions and Chinese over supply.

Phosphates
The global Phosphates market displaying stability. Signs of weakness are showing in Brazil as sellers look for liquidity. Market participants are closely watching for the price results of the recent DAP, TSP and MOP tender issued by Bangladesh’s Ministry of Agriculture, this may show some upside but will more likely reinforce stability. Midwest Phosphate buying remained limited also. Reports of a notable increase in enquiries suggest the market is beginning to emerge from the summer lull as buyers begin to consider their fall requirements.

Potash
Potash prices in Southeast Asia and Europe have declined due to weak seasonal demand, while broader potash prices remain stable. In Brazil, comfortable inventory levels combined with weak demand are responsible for weaker potash prices this week. China’s domestic market is still oversupplied relative to the low seasonal demand. In July, China imported 1.28 Mt of MOP leaving the total H1 imports at 10.18 Mt, 48% higher than the same period in 2025.  

Outlook
Looking ahead, the US further financially corners Iran with new sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz in no closer to opening, the global fertiliser market remains complex and is largely restrained by buyer caution, affordability issues and geo-political roadblocks. For UK growers, opportunities to secure autumn nutrient requirements should continue to be monitored closely, as current market conditions offer little indication of a significant fall in fertiliser prices over the short term. Industry bodies are reporting nitrogen buying commitments are back circa 50% of normal across the industry. As such, the AIC, NFU and UK Government are in the process of penning a joint letter to farmers detailing the concerns over the supply chain being so under committed, recommending farmers take some fertiliser cover. This letter is likely to be published by the end of August.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1661	1.3591	1.1652

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Aug26	176-186	189-204	230	445-455