Market Reports

Wheat

Wheat markets swung sharply over the week, with US futures rallying on export strength, weather risks and geopolitical tensions before bouts of profit taking. European markets lagged, hemmed in by currency moves and ample stocks, while London wheat slid to fresh contract lows amid heavy imports and thin trade. Oilseeds drew support from biofuel policy expectations.

Key Factors:

• Chicago and Kansas wheat climbed to multi-month highs on strong US export sales, fund short covering and Southern Plains weather risks, including drought and wind damage. Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East added further risk premium.
• EU wheat remained range-bound, with Euronext May 2026 largely confined to a €5/t channel despite firmer US cues. Updated European Commission data lifted EU export estimates, though stocks appear concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe.
• Russian outlooks diverged, with IKAR and SovEcon lifting 2026 crop forecasts, while Black Sea FOB values hovered in the low $230s. Winterkill concerns in Ukraine and logistical constraints persist, though improved spring flows could intensify competition.
• London wheat underperformed markedly, with May 2026 breaking to fresh contract lows near £165/t on strong volumes. Heavy UK imports, minimal exports and farmer reluctance to sell have reinforced a burdensome old-crop balance sheet.
• Soybean oil outperformed, hitting contract highs on expectations of higher US biofuel blending mandates, offsetting bearish stock data. Corn held firm on solid US exports and lower global stocks, though South American weather remains broadly favourable.
  
  

Outlook
Markets are poised between tightening nearby US wheat fundamentals and comfortable European supplies. Weather in the US Plains and Black Sea, alongside biofuel policy clarity and Chinese demand signals, will steer direction. London may seek competitiveness via lower prices, while Matif awaits a decisive break from its range.

Malting Barley

Trading activity in malting barley remains limited, with very little new demand emerging for old crop. As a result, there appears to be little prospect of the premium over feed barley increasing in the near term. Weak demand sentiment continues to weigh on the market, leaving buyers hesitant to commit to forward purchases unless they have corresponding sales in place.

Key Factors:

• Firm feed barley values are helping to absorb surplus old crop malting barley. This is unsurprising given the poor premium available and the logistical need to keep stocks moving. That said, some holders with length in the market are still hoping for a late-season lift in premiums, particularly if quality downgrades become more widespread.
• New crop business remains slow. End users are unwilling to secure cover without confirmed sales, particularly given the significant long positions held across the malting barley sector last year. The memory of those positions remains fresh, reinforcing a cautious “once bitten, twice shy” approach to buying strategies.
• In the UK, old crop malting barley is effectively untradeable due to the absence of meaningful bids. Although January’s wet weather may lend some underlying support, the market is likely to struggle for upward momentum until feed prices soften and clearer demand emerges.
  
  

Outlook
Short-term upside appears limited. However, production risks remain — a single adverse weather event could quickly shift the balance. Attention will therefore remain firmly on weather developments in the months ahead.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets have been quiet, with flat prices supported by nearby coaster demand to Ireland. Domestic demand is easing as competitiveness falls, some new crop coverage is occurring, and farmer selling remains unlikely due to slow drilling progress.

Key Factors:

• Very little activity in feed barley markets over the last week, and prices are flat as a result.
• We continue to see some coaster demand to Ireland on the nearby positions, which is keeping market steady.
• Domestic demand is drifting slightly as feed barley competitiveness falls vs other products.
• We see some consumer coverage taking place on the new crop; however farmer selling is a distant prospect today given lack of drilling progress to date.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop values are likely to remain supported with export underlying; however, it is tricky to see significant upside in the short term without a significant demand boost, or a rally in futures. New crop prices will continue to follow wheat closely and are unlikely to detach until later into the spring once planting progress becomes known.

Rapeseed

U.S Soybean market has plateaued slightly over the past week, which is unsurprising given seasonal slowdowns around Chinese New Year, Carnaval in Brazil, and U.S. Presidents Day last Monday. Optimism around potential trade progress with China continues to lend support. The main concern remains the price spread between South American and U.S. origins, which could limit export competitiveness. Still, sentiment is constructive, helped by strong Egyptian demand and delayed export inspections that came in at the upper end of expectations.

Key Factors:

• All eyes are on the USDA Outlook Forum today. With the bean/corn ratio as it stands, the trade anticipates a shift toward higher soybean plantings next season, potentially increasing acreage by around 3.5 million acres to exceed 85 million.
• Meanwhile in South America, activity remains subdued with Carnaval underway in Brazil, so harvest progress is unlikely to be reported significantly beyond 21% complete reported this week but we should see momentum should pick up early next week. CONAB continues to raise its production estimate, now at 178 MMT. In Argentina, showers persist in the forecast, while port strikes threaten short-term export delays. BAGE held its soybean production estimate steady at 48.5 MMT.
• Crude oil rallied sharply yesterday, up 4%, with WTI surpassing $65 per barrel. The move was supported by strong Asian demand and heightened U.S.–Iran tensions. Soybean oil prices also firmed on reports that the EPA may send updated RVO mandates to the U.S. administration this week.
• Chinese buyers remain out of the market until next week, but vegetable oil prices have tracked higher alongside crude, with palm oil rebounding after its holiday closure on Monday.
• Canadian canola futures closed higher this week, breaking through short-term resistance. Farmer selling remains limited, providing ongoing support.
• MATIF rapeseed also strengthened, trading past €490 on May futures. Fund positioning has increased in recent days suggesting €500 maybe in sights.
  
  

Outlook
Soybean markets remain supported by optimism around U.S.–China trade relations and firm global demand, though near-term consolidation is expected amid holiday disruptions. South American harvest progress and U.S. acreage projections will be key drivers in the coming weeks. Energy-led strength continues to underpin vegetable oils, while canola and rapeseed maintain a constructive tone, supported by tight farmer selling and strong fund participation.

Oats

Trading activity has remained quiet over the past week, as current price levels continue to deter growers from selling.

Key Factors:

• Buying interest from Turkey has temporarily stepped back, which is not surprising given the substantial volumes traded over the past six weeks. However, favourable tariff conditions remain in place, and this could support a return of demand in the coming weeks.
• Demand for feed oats has picked up, supported by new enquiries from Spain and parts of Western Europe. Supplies from the Baltics have tightened, while freight rates have risen sharply due to storm disruption and ice. As a result, buyers looking to secure additional tonnage are likely to encounter notably higher prices.
• In the UK, subdued prices are still limiting trade. Growers are reluctant to sell below production costs and are choosing to hold stocks in anticipation of better price opportunities.
• Although new crop prospects remain unclear, a reduction in planted area is expected to heighten market sensitivity to any adverse growing conditions, which could place upward pressure on prices should supply concerns emerge.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, the market appears to have established a base. Focus is likely to shift toward new crop developments for clearer direction.

Pulses

Pulse markets have drifted through another week with little to spark fresh direction. Values for both peas and beans are effectively unchanged, and participation on either side of the ledger has been limited. Feed beans continue to struggle for a place in rations, while the pea market remains comfortably supplied against a backdrop of hesitant export demand. In short, activity remains thin and price discovery subdued.

Key Factors:

• Old crop bean prices have once again held steady, showing remarkable resistance to movement. However, stability does not equate to competitiveness. Across the nearby Feb–Apr window, beans are still sitting roughly £10–15/mt above workable inclusion levels, and further forward they remain at a £30–35/mt premium to alternative proteins such as rapeseed meal and soybean meal. At these spreads, formulation uptake is understandably limited, keeping demand constrained.
• Persistent rainfall continues to complicate matters on farm. While soil moisture deficits from last summer have been replenished, field access is becoming an increasing concern as growers look to complete Spring Drilling. A sustained drier window will be needed to maintain momentum. Our marketing Pool remains open for additional bean contracts — a useful route to manage exposure in what is often an illiquid and difficult-to-read market.

• The pea market tells a similar story of inertia. UK demand remains muted, with competitively priced Canadian origin product continuing to find its way into the EU. Trade conversations are still focused on the evolving relationship between Canada and China. With early cargoes of Canadian yellow peas reportedly shipped ahead of Lunar New Year, attention now turns to whether Chinese buyers revert more fully to traditional supply channels in the weeks ahead.
• Domestically, buying appetite is light. The market continues to work through existing length before fresh interest is likely to emerge. While pea buyback programmes have now wrapped up, there are still growers exploring new-crop opportunities. Spring linseed contracts also remain available for those considering alternatives this season.
  
  

Outlook
The overarching tone remains gently soft. Without meaningful support from feed compounders or the human consumption sector, rallies are difficult to justify. Beans remain priced at a premium to competing proteins, while ample pea supplies, coupled with fluid international trade flows, are likely to limit upside potential. Until either demand improves or stock burdens ease, pulse markets look set to continue their steady, sideways path.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As we look ahead to Spring cropping decisions, now is the time to consider the opportunities across our seed portfolio to maximise both performance and profitability on farm.

Key Factors:

• Considering your rotations this Spring? Linseed offers an excellent break crop option, delivering a strong gross margin while also bringing valuable soil health benefits. Bingo (Spring Linseed) sits at the top of the AHDB Recommended List for yield, combining early maturity with a robust disease package. Speak to your Farm Trader to learn more about our competitive Linseed contracts.
• Maize demand remains strong, with availability of some popular varieties already tightening. Whether you are growing for grain, forage or AD, our portfolio includes a wide range of maturities to ensure the right fit for your requirements.
• We also have selected Spring seed available, including Lynx Bean Seed and Spring Barley. Lynx continues to deliver reliable, consistent performance and remains a firm favourite on farm.
• Attention is also turning towards grass leys, environmental mixtures, fodder beet and a broad selection of small seeds, as plans develop for the season ahead.
  
  

Outlook
With strong demand across several crops and availability already tightening in key varieties, we recommend speaking with your Farm Trader soon to secure the right options for your rotation.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

Geopolitical risk lifts Europe while US slides on supply strength. 

Key Factors: 

• European futures rise to €32.9 per MWh, extending gains as escalating US–Iran tensions raised concerns over LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global LNG volumes including Qatari exports. 
• Reports suggesting potential US military action and rising Israel–Iran tensions have injected a geopolitical risk premium into the market. 
• Offsetting factors include warmer weather, steady Norwegian flows despite maintenance, and stronger renewable output in Germany. 
• US futures fell toward $3.00 per MMBtu on near record Lower 48 production averaging 108.5 bcfd in February, with daily output recently peaking near 111 bcfd. 
  
  

Outlook 
European prices are likely to remain sensitive to Middle East developments and storage levels, with geopolitical headlines driving short term volatility. In the US, strong production and mild weather keep the bias softer unless a material weather shift or export disruption tightens balances meaningfully. 

Ammonia

Market remains split between tight West and length building East. 

Key Factors: 

• West of Suez values remain supported by ongoing supply constraints, including intermittent US outages and tight spot availability into Northwest Europe. 
• European prompt tonnes remain limited, reinforcing firm sentiment despite broader macro softness. 
• East of Suez markets are lengthening as Middle Eastern supply improves and incremental volumes re-enter the market. 
• Southeast Asian demand remains subdued, limiting absorption of available cargoes and weighing on regional sentiment. 
• Freight economics and arbitrage flows continue to dictate trade direction between basins. 
  
  

Outlook 
The bifurcated structure is likely to persist in the near term. West of Suez should remain comparatively firm until supply normalises, while East of Suez values are vulnerable to further softening unless fresh demand emerges to absorb improving Middle Eastern output. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Stable nitrates, sulphates remain under pressure amid muted activity. 

Key Factors: 

• Nitrate prices are expected to remain broadly steady, with limited transactional activity and most participants awaiting clearer demand signals later in the month. 
• European trade remains cautious amid ongoing CBAM-related uncertainty and intermittent weather disruptions affecting application windows. 
• Sulphates continue to represent the weakest segment, with oversupply weighing on sentiment. 
• Chinese New Year has muted near-term liquidity, temporarily slowed export activity and limited fresh spot flows. 
  
  

Outlook 
Nitrates are likely to track sideways in the short term, supported by producer discipline but capped by subdued demand. Sulphates remain vulnerable to further downside once post holiday Chinese supply re-enters more actively, unless a clear recovery in buying interest materialises. 

Urea

India tender in focus as RCF enquiry set to determine near-term direction. 

Key Factors: 

• The market is once again awaiting India to set the short-term tone, with RCF closing its 1.5 Mt purchase tender for shipment by 31 March later this week. 
• Provisional indications place lowest offers in the $500–510/t CFR range, a level broadly viewed as workable for India relative to current global FOB netbacks. 
• At $500–510/t CFR, India remains competitive versus alternative demand outlets, increasing the likelihood of securing at least 1 Mt under the enquiry. 
• RCF is understood to have received 20 offers totalling 3.073 Mt, though this headline figure likely overstates true availability due to double counting across submissions. 
• Of the reported volume, 1.46 Mt was offered into the west coast and 1.61 Mt into the east coast, versus a requirement of 800,000 t WCI and 700,000 t ECI. 
• Market participants are closely watching acceptance levels, as strong participation would underpin FOB values across the Middle East, North Africa and beyond. 
  
  

Outlook 
The outcome of the RCF tender will define Q1 price direction. Clearance near current L1 levels would reinforce the recent recovery and stabilise FOB benchmarks, while weaker than expected acceptances could reintroduce volatility. India remains the primary price setter in the near term. 

Phosphates

Tight supply keeps DAP and MAP on an upward trajectory despite muted spot liquidity. 

Key Factors: 

• Fresh DAP and MAP spot business is expected to remain limited this week, but any concluded deals are likely to reinforce the recent upward trend. 
• Brazil MAP prices have risen approximately 15% since the start of the year, reflecting tightening availability and steady importer engagement. 
• India DAP values have moved more gradually during the off season, though assessments increased 2% last week and are expected to edge higher in the coming weeks. 
• Chinese export restrictions continue to severely constrain global availability, underpinning firm pricing across key benchmarks. 
• Affordability remains poor relative to downstream agricultural commodities, yet tight supply dynamics are currently outweighing demand-side resistance. 
  
  

Outlook 
The market is likely to remain seller driven over the coming months. Limited Chinese exports and structurally tight global supply should keep prices supported, even if spot liquidity remains thin and affordability concerns persist. 

Potash

Affordability supports firmer tone as sentiment turns constructive into Q2. 

Key Factors: 

• MOP prices are expected to rise across most regions this quarter, with potash remaining the most affordable nutrient relative to N and P, underpinning buying interest. 
• Supplier sentiment remains bullish, with producers increasingly confident in pushing higher offers. 
• Activity in Asia is likely muted this week due to Lunar New Year holidays, limiting immediate price discovery. 
• India contract negotiations continue to drag, with market participants now expecting developments to emerge in March. 
  
  

Outlook 
Near-term liquidity may remain thin due to seasonal holidays, but the broader bias is constructive. If India settles at a firmer level and Brazilian demand holds, prices are likely to grind higher into Q2. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1447	1.3489	1.1782

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Feb26	145-155	159-169	195-205	425-435