Market reports

Wheat

Grain markets extended losses across major contracts this week as harvest pressure, strong global supply fundamentals, and speculative fund activity dragged futures to new lows. A lack of bullish catalysts amid macro headwinds, including tariff uncertainty and currency swings, is fuelling bearish momentum, despite some regional crop concerns and slow farmer selling underpinning markets.

Key Factors

• Chicago, MATIF, and London wheat all posted fresh contract lows, with Dec’25 MATIF decisively breaking key €200/t support for the first time. US corn futures also breached $4/bu before bouncing, as harvest pressure, strong US crop ratings, and Brazilian estimates weighed heavily.
• Northern Hemisphere harvests advanced despite interruptions from Storm Floris in the UK and wet conditions across Central Europe. The French wheat harvest is nearly complete, while US wheat is 86% done. UK progress is patchy, but quality remains strong, which is pressurising premiums for higher spec bulks.
• Massive managed money short positions feel well-vindicated as futures markets grind lower. In MATIF, heavy front-month Sep shorts are being rolled to Dec, distorting spreads and temporarily supporting nearby contracts even as overall direction remains bearish.
• Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop was revised up to 111.7mmt, and Argentina’s wheat ratings improved. Australia’s heavy old-crop wheat stocks and good planting weather signal another year of strong Southern Hemisphere supply, reinforcing longer term global bearish sentiment.
• Despite futures sliding, slow farmer selling is supporting regional cash prices, especially in the UK and EU. End-users are targeting sub-£175/t Nov’25 levels, with basis levels doing the heavy lifting to keep trade flowing, albeit in thin volumes.
  
  

Outlook
With technical momentum driving prices lower and macro factors like tariffs and currency volatility in play, the bearish trend remains intact. However, oversold technical conditions, tight cash markets, and uncertainty around next week’s USDA report could trigger short covering. Until then, futures remain vulnerable, with corn anchoring broader grain markets amid a mounting global surplus.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets remain quiet due to a paused spring harvest and variable yields, with limited demand keeping prices subdued despite some limited short covering.

Key Factors

• Malting barley markets are once again sluggish and the pause in the spring harvest is helping to keep things quiet.
• Spring barley yields and quality are variable, however with circa 50% of the crop to cut, we are yet to see the full picture. For now, at least, the average of the samples we have seen is looking OK. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the crop has fared in the recent rains.
• Low Nitrogen barley is likely to be a challenge this year, and the premium outlook is a bit more promising.
• Demand is still lacklustre, and fresh malting interest is limited, which is helping to keep a lid on markets, despite a few shorts/speculators trying to buy barley.
  
  

Outlook

The malting S&D looks comfortable despite some variable quality results coming through. Unless we see a major deterioration in quality, it is difficult to get too friendly to malting markets today given the continued demand lull.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets are supported by slow harvest and limited farmer selling, however longer term things look less friendly in the face of lagging demand.

Key Factors

• Feed barley markets have remained technical over the last week, as a combination of slow harvest pace and lack of farmer selling leaves the market short of nearby commitments, which has supported spot values.
• Fresh demand however is limited, and we see little in the way of first hand demand both in domestic and export markets, as prices attempt to ration demand.
• Spring barley harvest pace should pick up under better conditions over the next week, and we expect to see more malting downgrades coming through into the feed market, which may help to loosen up supply.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, with a surplus of barley in the UK market, we anticipate that longer term feed barley prices will need to depreciate to capture demand, however in the short term expect prices to remain supported until we see supply coming to the market.

Rapeseed

This week’s markets were shaped by heightened trade tensions, with new US tariffs on Canadian and Indian goods adding pressure amid mixed demand signals. Soybean and canola prices were volatile amid mixed weather and export outlooks, while rapeseed held key support despite currency fluctuations. Meanwhile, crude oil declined as OPEC+ increased production amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, contributing to a cautious market tone overall.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybean prices fluctuated, ending near the calendar year’s lows due to ongoing Chinese demand concerns and new US tariffs on India. Strong US soybean crush (record June volumes) and increased South American production forecasts provided some support. EU imports remain down 26% YoY, while US-China trade deal progress remains uncertain.
• Crude oil fell steadily amid OPEC+ production increases totalling 2.5 million barrels/day quota lifts this year and ongoing geopolitical tensions linked to Russian oil sanctions. OPEC+ raised production cuts by a further 544,000 barrels per day in September. A bullish US API inventory report briefly lifted prices but wasn’t enough to reverse the overall downward trend.
• Canola prices dropped significantly over the week, pressured by favourable weather forecasts boosting crop prospects and encouraging farmer selling. Despite some support from domestic and Chinese crushers, the market closed below its 100-day moving average, signalling weak momentum.
• MATIF rapeseed mostly moved lower, pressured by a stronger EUR/USD leading to a retest critical support around €470 at the bottom of recent range. There is downward momentum to overcome now, so price action over the coming days will be key. The OSR/Wheat price spread remains strong near 240%, but the downward momentum and currency swings keep the market cautious. Improving global rapeseed crop prospects continue to cap any gains, with Canada and Australia both looking positive.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties are likely to continue influencing markets, keeping volatility high. Weather conditions remain a key factor for crop development, especially for canola and rapeseed, with favourable forecasts supporting production but also encouraging farmer selling. Soybean demand from China and broader export dynamics will be critical to watch. In energy markets, OPEC+ production decisions and sanctions on Russian oil will shape crude prices, while currency movements will remain important for European agricultural commodities. Overall, cautious sentiment is expected to persist as markets weigh these evolving factors.

Oats

Unsettled weather dampens prospects of European oat harvest.

Key Factors

• Parts of Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states received over 200% of their expected average rainfall over the last week, at a time when crops are either fit for harvest or in the last stages of grain fill.
• Demand for milling and feed oats appears to be sluggish, however with Q4’25 and Q1’26 still to cover we could expect to see bids start to come into the market if concerns of the Scandinavian crop increase.
• Two years ago, Finland/Scandinavia suffered from high mycotoxin levels, therefore with lower production in Germany, UK and other EU states, millers can ill afford a return to poor quality Scandinavian oats.
• Feed oats remain hard to place and with rumblings of quality concerns this market could continue to feel negative price pressure. That said prices are so low that farmers are very reluctant sellers.
• Here in the UK, harvest has been delayed by wet and windy weather with some farmers reporting significant yield losses as a result. Yields vary from average to very poor, some areas in the midlands are reporting spring yields down by 50% on normal.
• Quality to date has been variable but well below last year’s exceptional crop. Pass rates are currently sufficient to meet demand, however we need to see more spring samples to truly understand whether we are going to have enough. But with a large carry in millers are currently relaxed about supplies, but with prices below £130x in some area’s farmer selling is virtually non-existent.
  
  

Outlook
All eyes remain on the weather in Scandinavia as this region’s performance and availability of milling oats will ultimately shape the direction of the oat market.

Pulses

The last week has seen some limited progress on the pulse harvest, although the focus has primarily been on cereals. Another week of variable yield and quality data, but it is still in line with expectations on the average. Quality is trending slightly lower though, pointing towards a larger feed heap.

Key Factors

• Another quiet week on pulses as the trade is keen to understand how the quality of the coming crop looks, and most peoples’ focus is firmly on cereal crops. The quality continues to dip, primarily around bruchid levels, whilst moisture and staining are looking ok. Broken and split beans are a little higher than average, and likely a reflection of the lower moistures at harvest.
• The market seems to be adjusting to these flat values from a domestic perspective, but demand is limited at these, with little interest outside of the Poultry sector. As has been the theme for many months now, imported feedstuffs continue to outprice beans in to compound rations, and GBP has recently ticked a touch firmer again making them even more competitive. For reference, Rapemeal is over £20/mt CHEAPER on a delivered basis than feed beans, underlining the requirement for them to come c. £25/mt to get a look in, and c. £10/mt lower to be export competitive.
• The UK pea harvest continues, albeit slowly, for those able to work around the frequent rain showers. Early yields were encouraging; however, a decline in performance over the past week has become evident—a trend not unexpected given the recent weather conditions.
• In terms of quality, early crops have shown good colour, but later crops are exhibiting increased levels of bleaching, again largely due to weather-related stress. One important factor to watch is the recent heatwave, which is starting to impact the soaking performance of many peas—this will need to be closely monitored in the coming weeks. A number of crops are still awaiting harvest, though we anticipate completion within the next week if conditions allow. Meanwhile across the EU, yields have come in higher than expected, despite the total planted area being significantly reduced compared to previous years. Encouragingly, consumer interest is beginning to return, with buyers now entering the market to assess quality and availability for the upcoming season. This could signal a positive shift in demand, which has been relatively subdued until now.
• The UK pea harvest continues, albeit slowly, for those able to work around the frequent rain showers. Early yields were encouraging; however, a decline in performance over the past week has become evident—a trend not unexpected given the recent weather conditions.
• In terms of quality, early crops have shown good colour, but later crops are exhibiting increased levels of bleaching, again largely due to weather-related stress. One important factor to watch is the recent heatwave, which is starting to impact the soaking performance of many peas—this will need to be closely monitored in the coming weeks.
• Several crops are still awaiting harvest, though we anticipate completion within the next week if conditions allow. Meanwhile across the EU, yields have come in higher than expected, despite the total planted area being significantly reduced compared to previous years. Encouragingly, consumer interest is beginning to return, with buyers now entering the market to assess quality and availability for the upcoming season. This could signal a positive shift in demand, which has been relatively subdued until now.
• The UK pea harvest is now nearing completion, with the last few crops expected to be harvested over the next few weeks. Yields and quality have been mixed across the sampled seed, with quality variations largely attributed to recent adverse weather conditions.
• Earlier in the season, the harvest progressed slowly as growers contended with frequent rain showers. While early yields were encouraging, a decline in performance has become evident more recently, which aligns with the challenging weather experienced.
• In terms of quality, early crops showed good colour, but later harvested crops have exhibited increased bleaching and weather-related stress. The recent heatwave has also begun to impact the soaking performance of many peas, warranting close monitoring in the weeks ahead.
• Encouragingly, buyers are now actively stepping into the market to assess available quality and determine what coverage they can secure for the upcoming season.
  
  

Outlook
A steady harvest pace continues, with an expectation for more winters to be finished in the coming week, and many springs to start being cut too. Prices remain uncompetitive, but if the harvested yields start to slide, the S&D could do some of the work.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Our barley seed processing is well underway, and we will begin processing wheat at the end of this week. While some crops still need to be harvested, the dry weather in parts of the UK so far has likely encouraged more combining. On farm discussions suggest that OSR drilling has started, with moisture playing a crucial role in successful establishment.

Key Factors

OSR

• Establishment Schemes: DK Excited is included with every pack sold, while Aviron, Academic, and Hinsta are available in limited quantities.
• High Yielders: For high yields, Maverick and Karat stand out with exceptional yield potential and high oil content. Karat is currently a candidate variety, performing well in trials and available in limited quantity this year.
• Robust Disease Resistance: Hinsta and LG Academic are our top choices for strong disease resistance, offering protection against TuYV and pod shatter.
• Vigour: Vigorous varieties such as Duplo and Aviron support strong crop establishment during both autumn and spring.
• Delivery and collections: For those seeking fast delivery, we have a range of varieties available, including hybrids such as DK Excited, Hinsta, and Duplo, as well as conventional varieties like Campus and Pi Pinnacle. We can also offer convenient collection options at several locations, including Thriplow, York, Peterborough, and more.

Cereals

• The first winter wheat harvest results have been published by AHDB, with candidate varieties KWS Aintree, LG Challenger, and LG Defiance showing strong performance. Additionally, established varieties like Champion continue to perform well across the board.
• Winter barley variety LG Capitol remains a solid choice among conventional 2-row barleys, offering high yields and a reliable agronomic package.
  
  

Outlook
Demand is expected to remain strong for newer cereal varieties such as KWS Scope, KWS Vibe, and RGT Hexton, though stocks are limited or already sold out. As a result, many growers are likely to return to reliable favourites like Champion, Dawsum, Bamford, and Beowulf—tried-and-tested varieties that continue to deliver consistent on-farm performance. OSR is growing in popularity with many looking to help minimise risk with establishment or sale or return schemes.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
EU prices ease below €34/MWh on strong supply; US futures rebound above $3/MMBtu amid heat and LNG surge.

Key Factors

• European gas futures slipped below €34/MWh, driven by robust pipeline deliveries from Norway, steady LNG imports, and weak Asian demand — particularly from China.
• EU gas storage rose to nearly 70%, with Germany above 62%, Italy over 81%, and France near 79% — narrowing the gap on last year’s 86% level for the same period.
• Geopolitical tension remains a background risk, with the US threatening sanctions if no ceasefire in Ukraine is agreed, but market reaction was limited due to uncertainty over timing and severity.
• In the US, futures rose above $3/MMBtu, supported by a 3.7 bcfd drop in daily output and hotter-than-normal weather lifting power sector demand.
  
  

Outlook
EU markets remain well supplied for now, but late-summer maintenance and any geopolitical flare-ups could shift sentiment. In the US, production trends and weather forecasts remain key to whether prices can hold above the $3.00 mark.

Ammonia
Prices surge west of Suez as US Gulf tightens; $70/t Tampa hike reflects constrained market.

Key Factors

• The August Tampa settlement between Yara and Mosaic jumped $70/t to $487/t CFR, following a $25/t rise in July.
• Tight supply west of Suez continues to drive the firm tone, particularly with constrained North African availability.
• Production issues at Mosaic’s 500,000 t/yr Faustina plant in the US Gulf added pressure, prompting increased spot and contract buying.
• Market participants are also watching for potential gas-related output cuts in Trinidad, which could further restrict supply.
  
  

Outlook
Prices are expected to hold firm into Q4 on constrained supply, though new US Gulf export capacity could trigger a correction in early 2026. In Europe, a pivot toward domestic production may limit import appetite and weigh on CFR values.

Nitrates and Sulphates
European values begin to soften; UK import caution raises longer-term risk.

Key Factors

• Nitrate prices across Europe have begun to soften as producers lower offers in a bid to stimulate buying interest during the late-summer lull.
• Sulphates continue to ease, with Brazilian ammonium sulphate (AS) cargoes now trading at notable discounts compared to recent spot arrivals.
• In the UK, weaker GBP/EUR is raising the cost of imports, while a lack of immediate grower demand has seen traders hesitate on forward cover.
• If this pattern persists, domestic availability may become constrained when demand returns echoing the product access challenges seen during the latter portion of the 2024 buying season.
  
  

Outlook
Short-term pricing looks softer across the board, but UK market tightness could emerge if traders delay restocking, and imports remain slow into autumn.

Urea
Indian tender hits 2 Mt; US and UK markets come under pressure despite supply risks.

Key Factors

• India’s IPL has now accepted 1,998,750 tonnes of urea for shipment by 22 September, split evenly across east and west coast discharge.
• Notably, China has approved nine companies to export a combined 300,000 tonnes to India, marking a cautious re-entry of Chinese tonnes into the international market.
• In the US, the urea market softened throughout the week. NOLA barge values dropped from $458/st on 1 August to $435/st by 6 August for August shipment, while September fell from $470/st to $430/st FOB NOLA.
• Midwest values remain higher at $490–510/st FOB, though downside could be limited in the short term due to a reported CF Industries supply disruption at Donaldsonville, which halted urea loadings from 6 August.
• In the UK, import values have been somewhat cushioned by a weakening GBP, with the currency falling below 1.33 USD as expectations mounted for a BoE rate cut to 4.0%. Weaker sterling has increased the cost of imported granular urea, partially offsetting the global softness.
  
  

Outlook
With the Indian tender fully absorbed and China edging back into the market, near-term tone has turned bearish. However, FX pressure in the UK if it persists could temper declines locally particularly if importers remain hesitant to take too much forward cover.

Phosphates
Global prices stabilise, but US surges highlight ongoing supply tightness.

Key Factors

• After several weeks of steep gains, phosphate prices have mostly stabilised, with sharp increases in the US market last week.
• At NOLA, DAP barge prices surged to $820/st FOB on 30 July, driven by severe supply shortages and minimal forward availability.
• Despite tight availability, poor affordability is now a major constraint, with buyer resistance starting to cap further upside, particularly in Brazil and parts of Europe.
• India’s RCF continues to seek new tonnes, recently issuing a tender for phosphate rock and DAP/MAP. Submissions are due 8 August.

• Traders remain cautious, with limited product in the pipeline and little confidence in supply recovery before Q4.
  
  

Outlook
While the pace of price rises may ease in the short term, the underlying supply tightness remains unresolved. Barring major demand destruction, upward momentum is still likely to persist into August.

Potash
Early weakness emerges as Brazil retreats and Indonesia fails to lift sentiment.

Key Factors

• Potash prices in Brazil slipped by $5/t last week — the first recorded decline in almost a year, signalling a potential turning point in sentiment.
• The long-awaited Pupuk Indonesia tender was awarded at $383/t CFR, only $3/t above the top of previous market ranges, offering little support to bullish hopes.
• With demand seasonally soft across key regions and buyers showing increasing price resistance, further upside looks unlikely in the short term.
• Traders now appear more cautious, with some deferring purchases until September’s seasonal demand picks up in markets like Brazil and Southeast Asia.
  
  

Outlook
With bearish signals growing and limited support from recent tenders, potash prices are expected to hold steady or drift slightly lower through August unless stronger demand re-emerges.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1456	1.3355	1.1657

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
August25	140-150	151-171	200-210	390-400