Market reports

Wheat

Global grain markets are trading cautiously ahead of the long-delayed USDA WASDE report tomorrow evening, with sentiment oscillating between short-covering rallies and renewed pressure from ample global supply. Weak Chinese demand, strong South American crops, and a firm euro kept rallies in check, while speculative positioning and shifting weather patterns set the tone for two-way trade.

Key Factors:

• In the US, corn and wheat oscillated in tight ranges as traders await any potential WASDE revisions tomorrow. Corn held around $4.30/bu, while wheat’s rebound above $5.35/bu was driven by export optimism and short covering. Soybeans softened on news of major Chinese commitments to Brazilian—not U.S.—suppliers.
• Closer to home, MATIF and London wheat remained under pressure from euro strength, rising Black Sea competition, and subdued export activity. Late-week buying, and a weaker GBP offered brief support, but MATIF futures remain locked in a long-term bearish channel with key support near €185/t.
• In South America, Brazil’s weather stayed broadly favourable, underpinning expectations of record soybean and corn harvests. Argentina’s wheat harvest (12% complete) continues to show strong yields, reinforcing its position as the cheapest milling wheat globally at around $210–212/t FOB.
• In the Black Sea, Russian exports remain dominant, with October shipments reaching 5.5mmt and prices steady near $230–233/t FOB despite U.S. market rallies. Egypt’s recent 500,000t tender, mostly filled by Russian and regional origins, underscores the strength and reliability of Black Sea supply lines.
• Away from the day to day of grain, mild U.S. temperatures, ongoing dryness across parts of South America, and a stronger euro weighed on sentiment. Currency volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty, alongside speculative fund positioning, continued to amplify short-term price swings across exchanges.
  
  

Outlook
With the WASDE report set to update global balance sheets for the first time since September, traders expect modest upward revisions to global wheat and corn output and little near-term bullish impetus. Ample southern hemisphere supply, soft Chinese demand, and resilient Black Sea exports suggest rallies will remain limited in scope and duration.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets remain quiet with limited demand and weak export interest, though Crop-26 holds a premium over Crop-25 amid reduced spring acreage and a tighter supply outlook.

Key Factors:

• Malting barley markets are once again slow, with little activity to report. Crop-25 values continue to drift on slow demand.
• Export business is not taking place as FOB markets remain discounted to feed.
• Crop-26 is a premium to crop-25 with a lower supply outlook on falling spring acres, lending a supportive longer-term tone.
  
  

Outlook
Whilst demand remains slow it is tricky to see a reason for any upside in the short term, however longer term, alongside a supported feed market, downside looks limited and there is the opportunity for a late season squeeze if availability of quality barley runs dry.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets remain supported by East Coast demand and a weak GBP, though domestic interest has eased slightly amid mild weather.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley markets continue to find support on the East Coast as shorts look to cover spot coaster demand, and GBP remains weak.
• Domestic markets are not feeling quite so supported, as benign weather adds a slight cooling effect to feed demand, however feed barley remains an attractively priced component in feed rations.
• Farmer selling is sluggish, albeit much improved in recent weeks.
  
  

Outlook
It will be interesting to see whether feed barley can push meaningfully higher, however in the short term we see limited prospect of downside whilst export demand is engaging.

Rapeseed

This week presented a mixed performance across the oilseeds sector. Soybean prices increased on demand optimism but faced resistance due to cheaper South American supplies. Currency fluctuations, political developments, and shifting trade dynamics continue to influence price direction. Crude oil markets experienced volatility, with OPEC’s forecast for 2026 triggering a 4% drop in values recently, which has also impacted vegetable oil prices. Canola and MATIF rapeseed followed broader oilseed trends, remaining rangebound ahead of the USDA WASDE report scheduled for Friday, November 14th.

 Key Factors:

• Harvest progress in the U.S. reached 96% completion, according to the latest Reuters survey. Early optimism surrounding China’s reinstatement of U.S. export licenses was realised, providing initial support for values. However, despite China reporting record soybean imports for October, none were sourced from the U.S. To remain competitive in the Chinese market—especially with Brazil actively supplying—U.S. prices will need to adjust. While China pledged to purchase 12 million metric tons (mmt) of U.S. soybeans by the end of January, uncertainty remains around whether this commitment will be fulfilled. The USDA WASDE report is expected to provide crucial market direction, with position adjustments likely ahead of its release.
• In the U.S., weather conditions remain largely dry across most areas. In South America, Brazil experienced beneficial rains last week, though some regions missed out and will require monitoring over the next 10 days, as further showers are anticipated. Argentina’s forecast looks favourable, with a mix of sunshine and rain expected in the coming days.
• Crude oil prices started the week higher before declining 4% on Wednesday following OPEC’s demand outlook for 2026. Large palm oil stocks continue to weigh on the market, with the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reporting record inventory levels this week alongside record 2025 production figures of 20mmt (up from 19.96mmt in 2024). Soybean oil prices gained support amid optimism that U.S. biofuel policies will be revisited once the government resumes normal operations, lending further strength to product values.
• Canola and MATIF rapeseed prices remain rangebound, with MATIF rapeseed closing at €478 yesterday, tracking within the €475–€485 range. Recent support has stemmed from lower Ukrainian and Australian imports, increasing reliance on EU supplies to bridge the gap. Slight improvements in crush margins have also provided moderate price support. Meanwhile, meal markets remain subdued as buyers hesitate to engage amid uncertainty surrounding EUDR regulations.
• Lower Sterling/Euro exchange rates, currently at 1.13300, have offered support to UK prices.
  
  

Outlook: The upcoming USDA WASDE report will be pivotal, marking the first update since September. While U.S. soybean prices are trending higher, Chinese buyers continue to favour Brazilian beans due to lower costs, raising questions about the fulfilment of China’s 12mmt purchase pledge from the U.S. by January. Canola and EU rapeseed prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term.

Oats

Fresh bids for milling oats are hard to come by, but so too are offers at these levels.

Key Factors:

• The European oat market remains in a state of inertia with both buyers and sellers happy to hold off trading given the current price levels.
• Farmer selling remains poor with most expecting a bounce in prices later in the year, in contrast consumers feel comfortable about nearby positions and hopeful that prices will ease further.
• Further depreciation in GBP Sterling vs the Euro (£/€) continues to make UK oats more competitive into EU and 3^rd country destinations and this could add some support to UK prices should any export business get traded.
• The low prices and large volume sales out of Scandinavia is expected to have exhausted exportable surpluses and this could see greater demand for UK oats once buyers come to the market.
• Feed oat demand remains poor but given the lack of farmer selling prices have stabilised and struggling to push lower.
• Here in the UK farmer selling continues to be slow with growers sighting a greater availability of storage and therefore given the low prices they see no need to sell at these levels.
• Up until now the autumn drilling conditions have been good and this has allowed many growers to increase their winter wheat areas to maximise their returns.
  
  

Outlook
In summary, low prices continue to discourage selling appetite, but this is countered by a lack of buyers. Who wins, only time will tell.

Pulses

Pulse markets have been subdued over the last week, with feed demand lacking and Human Consumption demand non-existent. Overall, pulses are still lagging other commodities in their general competitiveness, and we will need to see a decline in values to buy some wholesale demand going forward.

Key Factors:

• Another quiet week of feed demand away from the poultry sector, although even this was comparatively quiet, with beans still failing to compete on a wholesale basis against other competing feedstuffs, still being c. £25/mt away from competing on a unitary protein value. Whilst granted, the bean SnD does not require wholesale competitiveness to deal with a surplus, values do need to push lower to buy some demand, otherwise we will be looking at a situation similar to last year with a large balance to carry into new crop. Winter formulations are now pretty much locked until the spring, so expect a flat demand profile for the next couple of months.
• Chatter around the burgeoning Australian new crop continues to talk of a large crop and aggressive prices. Human Consumption buyers are focussed on the high quality beans that this will bring, and are comparatively disengaged on all other origins. Both UK and Baltic beans are struggling to compete as a result, with buyer’s showing little sign of looking at additional origins.
• The pea market lacks direction this week, sluggish consumer demand and abundant stock levels continued to drive prices downward. This downward trajectory is expected to extend into 2026. Furthermore, India’s recent decision to introduce a 30% import tariff on yellow peas has added pressure to global prices, and despite opinions on when this may be reversed, its likely not to be a short-term decision.  Those with goods on vessels destined to arrive to India past the deadline will be looking for new outlets.
• If you haven’t yet booked your buyback agreements for 2026 then now is the time. Most contracts are nearly fully booked so please speak to your farm trader for further details.
  
  

Outlook
UK pulse prices are still unattractive compared to competing feedstuff options. As a result, the demand profile for beans is flat, with a likely decline in values as we progress towards the end of the season. The Australian new crop continues to weigh heavily on sentiments across the Human Consumption market, with buyers disengaged as a result.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Spring seed is becoming the key focus for many as we near the end of 2025. To set the Spring crop up for a successful growing season, it is important to consider varietal selection, those that not only produce solid yields but also align with market demands.

Key Factors:

• Spring Barley – Laureate is expected to remain the market leader for Spring 2026, favoured by both growers and end users. We are also pleased to offer RGT Planet, Skyway and CB Score as part of our Spring Barley portfolio. RGT Planet is one of the top brewing varieties and is widely grown due to its consistency in a range of soil types.
• Spring Wheat – Ladum is our go to choice of Group 1 variety with high yields, supported by a good disease resistance package. For those looking for a Group 2, Alicium has a brilliant grain quality with a high protein and Hagberg Falling Number. 
• Spring Oats – A wide range of varieties is available, including Merlin, WPB Isabel, and the new Caledon.
• Spring Beans – Lynx continues to perform strongly and remains one of the leading choices.
• Spring Peas – Limited availability remains on our buyback contracts, including the Kabuki marrowfat variety, and Butterfly and Daytona in the large blue category. For 2026, all pea seed will be supplied with Nuello iN seed treatment as standard, backed by strong Syngenta data in pulse crops to support yield potential and farm profitability.
• Maize – From forage and biogas to grain production, we offer a comprehensive portfolio of maize varieties across a full range of maturities – ensuring there’s a perfect fit for every system and situation.
  
  

Outlook
As growers plan for spring 2026, selecting varieties that align with end market needs while offering strong yield potential, disease resistance, and agronomic performance will be key to maximising returns. Speak to your Farm Trader today to discuss variety options and secure seed for the season ahead.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European futures slide to six-month lows on strong supply; US prices hit new 2025 highs on cold-weather demand and record LNG exports. 

Key Factors: 

• EU futures dropped to €30.5/MWh, the lowest since May 2024, as high LNG arrivals and strong Norwegian flows kept the market well supplied. 

• Mild, windy weather sharply reduced demand, while warmer conditions in China freed extra LNG cargoes toward Europe. 

• European LNG imports reached 101.38m tonnes Jan–Oct, up 16.75m tonnes year on year 

• Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure raise the risk that Ukraine will rely more heavily on EU supplies this winter. 

• US futures climbed above $4.6/MMBtu, the highest since December 2022, on stronger LNG exports and early-December cold forecasts. 

• US production reached a record 109 bcfd in early November, keeping storage about 4% above seasonal norms. 

• Weather models signal a cold start to December following a brief warmer spell, supporting heating demand.
  
  

Outlook 
EU prices are likely to stay subdued near term unless weather flips colder or geopolitical tensions escalate.

 

Ammonia

Ammonia prices remain supported by tight global supply, with limited relief expected before year-end. 

Key Factors: 

• Market sentiment stays firm as supply remains constrained on both sides of the Suez. 

• Several outages and curtailments continue to restrict export availability through December. 

• A spot sale from Qatar was rumoured at or near $500/t FOB late last week, though this has not yet been confirmed. 

• Some producers anticipate marginal supply improvement in Q4, but not enough to soften prices meaningfully.
  
   

Outlook 
Prices are unlikely to ease in the coming weeks, with tight fundamentals expected to dominate until early 2026.

 

Nitrates and Sulphates

European nitrates continue to firm on pre-CBAM buying, while sulphates remain mostly bearish apart from tightness in Northwest Europe.

 

Key Factors: 

• Nitrates are strengthening across Europe as traders and distributors secure volumes ahead of CBAM implementation. 

• Sulphates remain under pressure globally due to weak demand and ample Chinese availability. 

• Northwest Europe stands out as the exception: AS supply is tight and any new Chinese shipments booked now would only arrive in January 2026 and face CBAM costs. 

• Importers remain cautious about committing to sulphates given uncertain demand and future duty exposure.
  
   

Outlook 
Nitrates are expected to stay supported into December on pre-CBAM positioning and limited producer availability. Sulphates should remain soft in most regions, with Northwest Europe likely to firm modestly as supply constraints become more pronounced. 

Urea

A week that initially looked set to stabilise the market’s recent upside volatility instead delivered mixed signals, leaving sentiment uncertain.

 

Key Factors: 

• Mopco expansion plans: Egypt’s Mopco confirmed a major $200–250m investment for 2026–27, targeting a 10% production rise to 2.2 Mt/year. This adds future supply but has no short-term impact on availability. 

• Pre-CBAM European buying continues: French buyers remain active ahead of the 1 January CBAM start, with FCA trades at €470–490/t. Activity is slowing, but new arrivals (≈55,000 t) should ease local tightness. 

• Algeria stalls above $500/t FOB: After last week’s rare $500/t FOB sale to Europe, no new Sorfert business materialised. The producer is targeting above that level, but demand has thinned as Europe pauses buying. 

• India dominates sentiment. 

• IPL issued a major tender for 2.5 Mt, closing 20 November, India’s largest since early 2025. 

• This comes immediately after China announced a fresh 600,000 t export quota, though export clearance to India is still pending. 

• The tender will test whether Chinese material can re-enter India at scale and whether Middle Eastern, Russian, and African suppliers will accept lower prices. 
  
  

Outlook 
The IPL tender is now the main driver of global sentiment. If China can bring significant volumes, pricing could settle lower. If export authorisations lag or quota cargoes are fewer than expected, Middle Eastern and Russian suppliers will regain leverage, keeping values firm. Europe’s pre-CBAM buying window is closing, removing one area of demand, raising the stakes further for India to define the next trend. The market is likely to remain stable-to-firmer until the offer sheet and L1 levels are known. 

Phosphates

Prices remain under pressure as demand slows across key importing regions. 

Key Factors: 

• Weak global demand: India, Brazil, and much of Southeast Asia are showing little urgency to buy, with importers pushing back against high Q3/Q4 pricing. 

• China effectively out of the market: Existing export quotas are now fully allocated, and with no further approvals expected before Q2 2026, availability remains tight in theory. However, the current lull in buying means this tightness is offering little price support. 

• MAP discount widening: MAP continues to trade at an atypically large discount to DAP due to softer demand, especially from Brazil. 
  
  

Outlook 
Market activity is expected to remain subdued this week, with further price declines likely through Q4. Despite limited global availability, the lack of immediate demand and buyer resistance will continue to weigh on DAP and MAP values. Prices are still expected to remain historically elevated, but momentum is firmly bearish in the near term. 

Potash

Prices remain stable to soft, with a steady downward bias.

 

Key Factors: 

• Ample global supply: Producers continue to supply the market comfortably, with no meaningful shortages across major regions. 

• Weak spot demand: Brazil and Southeast Asia remain cautious, and buyers are in no rush to secure additional volumes, placing gradual pressure on higher-end prices. 

• Contract timing moving earlier: The key Chinese and Indian MOP contracts are now expected to be settled by March 2026, earlier than the previously anticipated May timeline. This reflects low inventory levels in China and a desire to secure tonnage ahead of spring application. 

• Limited upside catalysts: While palm oil values provide some minor support in Southeast Asia, the broader sentiment remains subdued.
  
   

Outlook 
Prices are expected to decline steadily through the coming weeks as healthy supply meets slow purchase activity. The earlier-than-expected contract settlements in Q1 may provide some medium-term direction, but in the near term the trend remains soft. 

POLY4

In partnership with Anglo American, we are proud to introduce POLY4 to our portfolio, a next-generation, multi-nutrient fertiliser designed to optimise plant nutrition and enhance crop performance. Its balanced and sustained sulphur release supports improved nitrogen uptake, driving more nutrients directly to the crop while reducing waste and maximising efficiency.

Key Factors:

• Reformulated mineral granules dissolve efficiently, ensuring optimal nutrient availability.
• A naturally porous texture absorbs field moisture to deliver a consistent, sustained nutrient release.
• Uniform granule size enables even spreading of up to 36m, promoting uniform crop coverage.
  
  

Outlook
With its versatility and ease of use, POLY4 is the smart, sustainable solution that seamlessly integrates into a wide range of farming systems, helping growers boost productivity, improve soil health, and increase profitability.