Thursday 30 October 2025

Wheat

Global grain and oilseed markets swung sharply this week as optimism over a potential US China trade deal drove multi-month highs before fading on profit-taking and uncertainty. Soybeans led the rally, pulling wheat and corn higher, while volatility surged amid a lack of fundamental data from the ongoing US government shutdown.

Key Factors:

• Soybeans surged to one-year highs above $11/bu on expectations of long-term Chinese purchases, before reversing late week as doubts grew over concrete deal details. Modest confirmed Chinese buying offered symbolic support but lacked volume impact.
• Global wheat markets tracked soybean strength, closing higher midweek on short covering despite improved US winter crop conditions, though gains were capped by cheaper Black Sea and EU competition and steady global supply fundamentals.
• Corn followed beans higher early week, briefly testing $4.30/bu resistance. Strong ethanol demand and competitive U.S. export pricing supported futures, but absence of new sales and profit-taking limited upside.
• European futures mirrored U.S. moves but faded late week as farmers capitalised on higher prices. MATIF wheat held in the low €190’s/t, London May’26 briefly topped £180/t before easing. Farmer engagement improved, softening basis levels in the UK.
• Weather and Fundamentals: U.S. harvests neared completion under mostly favourable weather; Brazil’s planting advanced amid beneficial rains, and Argentina faced frost risks to wheat. The IGC raised global wheat output to 827mmt, underscoring ample supply.
  
  

Outlook
Grain markets enter November braced for volatility, hinging on the outcome of the Trump–Xi summit and any verifiable Chinese commodity purchases. Without firm commitments, rallies may struggle for traction, though strong speculative flows and tight farmer selling could sustain price swings in the near term.

Malting Barley

Markets remain flat with weak demand and limited farmer selling, while thin maltster interest keeps new crop values subdued despite lower expected area.

Key Factors:

• Markets are unchanged on the week, and the demand malaise continues. Meanwhile, supply is thin as farmers are not engaging in the market.
• Nominal new crop values look like a friendlier picture, however appetite from maltsters remains thin amid the ongoing demand challenges, which is keeping the market subdued.
  
  

Outlook
Downside to old crop values seems limited, with a supported feed outlook, but similarly it feels unlikely that we will see a significant rally whilst demand is so poor.

Feed Barley

East Coast prices are supported by modest Iberian demand and limited farmer selling meanwhile the outlook remains for strong winter feed demand amid tight forage supplies.

Key Factors:

• Prices on the East Coast of England are finding some support, as demand in Iberia continues to come forward (albeit slowly) which is keeping a bid under the market. Despite a large crop in Spain this year, farmers are not selling their supplies which is pushing the market to import.
• Domestic values are up slightly in tandem, but as internal levels were particularly strong due to good nearby demand, the support is less pronounced.
• The outlook is once again for elevated demand over the winter, as barley prices into feed rations well, and the ruminant sector in particular is performing well, meanwhile forage stocks dwindle due to a disappointing harvest.
  
  

Outlook
We see little prospect of downside to feed barley levels today with buoyant demand and another export destination coming to the table. Significant upside will need to be driven by a macro rally.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets traded with a largely positive tone this week as traders digested developments from Trump and Xi’s long-anticipated meeting. Early optimism surrounding potential Chinese soybean buying lifted agricultural sentiment mid-week, though the lack of concrete details by Monday tempered enthusiasm. Crude oil strength and improving technical setups across oilseeds provided a floor, while broader macro uncertainty and choppy outside markets kept rallies somewhat restrained.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans rose to the highest level we have seen in a year, driven by renewed optimism around US, China trade talks. Early gains saw futures run into resistance before easing back as Trump and Xi’s meeting didn’t bring the clarity that the trade was hoping for. Their meeting did seem to go well, though we were not met with an exact plan in terms of soybean purchases going forward, rather comments from China that they plan to expand agricultural trade.
• Crude prices strengthened overall, supported by tighter than expected US stock data and ongoing geopolitical wrangling over Russian supply. The Trump administration’s push to redirect global flows has lifted energy sentiment, which in turn underpins the wider vegetable oil complex. Although intraday volatility remains high. Momentum indicators show bullish consolidation, though risk appetite remains tentative.
• Canola markets continued to grind higher, aided by spillover strength from soybeans and firmer crude oil. Farmer selling has been positive, though is yet to catch up with the seasonal average pace. The 20-day moving average has provided consistent support, while the 50-day remains a stubborn ceiling. Technical trade remains orderly, with a steady upward channel intact, momentum is cautious but constructive provided outside markets remain steady.
• MATIF futures extended their rally to a two-month high, now holding above key support at €475 and testing resistance at €483. Breaking the long-term downtrend from July has lifted confidence, and current flat prices have spurred healthy farmer selling, helping crushers secure nearby cover. The €480 €485 region remains a pivotal zone to watch; consolidation here could build the base for a broader move higher if external markets stay supportive.
  
  

Outlook
While optimism has faded slightly post-meeting, the tone across oilseeds remains broadly constructive. Any confirmation of Chinese soybean buying would likely trigger renewed fund interest and further upside across the complex. Crude oil fundamentals continue to lean supportive, and with MATIF holding above key technical levels, rapeseed looks well-positioned to consolidate recent gains. If we see China back in to buy US soybeans in volume, this would keep them at a ‘less cheap’ level and less attractive into the EU meaning that we could see rapeseed crush demand increase. Short-term trade is likely to stay headline-driven, but underlying demand signals look better heading into November.

Oats

Oat milling tenders could bring some fresh demand, but until then prices remain low.

Key Factors:

• The European market remains in a state of flux with farmers resistant to selling at such low levels and buyers happy to buy hand to mouth given the estimated surplus of oats available.
• Oat millers are reporting that their tenders are progressing well however as yet they are not in a position to buy, but there are Q4’25 and Q1’26 positions to cover.
• A fall in GBP Sterling vs the Euro (£/€) is helping make UK oats more competitive into EU and 3^rd country destinations and this could add some support to UK prices should any export business get traded.

• Next month is reported to see a large flow of Scandinavian exports to 3^rd country and this is making sellers of Scandi oats harder to find as they do not like these low prices.
• Feed oat demand remains poor and this is only leading to lower prices. However values are struggling to fall much further given the lack of farmer selling appetite.
• Here in the UK farmer selling continues to be slow with growers sighting a greater availability of storage and therefore given the low prices they see no need to sell at these levels.
• Fantastic autumn drilling conditions is seeing farmers opt for greater wheat planting than they may have originally intended. This is likely to result in lower oat areas for harvest 2026 and could lend to a big drop in supply in the forthcoming season.
  
  

Will we see a pickup in Oat prices, only time will tell.

Pulses

Pulse markets continue to hunt for sentiment, with imported feedstuffs weighing on domestic prices, whilst the looming Australian new crop keeps a lid on export values. GBP’s recent declines against the USD is helping the UK’s competitiveness, however it is too little too late, and only bridges part of the chasm in pricing differentials.

Key Factors:

• The last couple of weeks have seen compounders finesse the last of their winter rations, and beans do not feature in most diets, unless there is a requirement for them on the label due to fixed formulations. There has been some limited interest from other sectors, although it is primarily people price checking ahead of locking into their final formulations for winter diets.
• Domestic feed beans remain c. £25/mt uncompetitive compared to competing feedstuffs, despite the recent price rises seen on RSM. However, with the SnD having an element of balance to it, it is unlikely we will see beans have to bridge all this gap should there be a surplus as the season goes on.
• Human Consumption buyers remain firmly focused on the coming Australian bean harvest, with many suggesting the crop could be even larger than already expected. With chatter of exceptionally aggressive Australian new crop values, it is unlikely we’ll see further significant interest for exports into North Africa this season, despite the weaker GBP values against the USD.

• The pea trade experienced a notably quiet week, with limited consumer demand observed. High stock levels continue to exert downward pressure on prices, a trend that is anticipated to have a ripple effect into 2026.
• Additionally, buyback opportunities for 2026 are nearing full capacity as buyers adjust their strategies to align with evolving customer demand projections.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, UK pulse prices mean they remain comparatively unattractive compared to competing feedstuffs. On the human consumption markets, the burgeoning Australian crop is weighing heavily and keeping demand in check. With little impetus one way or the other, beans continue to look like a sell in the face of values which remain under pressure.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Mindsets are shifting toward Spring as growers begin to look ahead to the new season. It is time to evaluate options and plan for the upcoming season. Decisions are being made about which commodities and varieties to include in rotations.

Key Factors:

• Winter Seed – For those still drilling winter wheat, we have a number of varieties available suitable for late drilling, including SY Cheer and Skyfall. We also have winter bean seed – Vespa – available for fast delivery.  
• Spring Barley – Laureate remains the market leader for another year on the spring malting barley front. Alongside Laureate, we are also pleased to offer spring barley – RGT Planet, CB Score and Skyway. Some of our Spring Barley varieties are also available for delivery pre-Christmas, speak to your ADM Farm Trader for more information.
• Pea Seed – We have a brilliant offering of buyback contract available alongside some of our pea varieties. 
  
  

Outlook
As we near November, most are beginning to focus their attention on Spring 2026. Not only is it important to select a variety with a robust disease and agronomic package but also it is key to choose varieties in line with end market demand. Now is a great time to discuss requirements with your ADM Farm Trader to secure your seed and grain contracts. Seed will become increasingly limited as we enter the Spring season, so early ordering is vital to fix the best variety for your needs. 

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European prices steady near €32/MWh as strong storage offsets supply dips; US futures retreat below $3.8/MMBtu amid firm output and mild weather outlooks. 

Key Factors: 

• EU gas futures hovered around €32/MWh, supported by 83% storage capacity across the bloc.
•  LNG shipments to Europe have slowed, and Norwegian pipeline flows dipped due to maintenance, sparking renewed concerns over short-term supply stability. 
• In the US, futures fell below $3.8/MMBtu as production remained near 108 bcfd, easing supply fears with inventories 5% above the five-year average. 
• Weather forecasts through mid-November show mostly seasonal conditions, though some colder patterns later in the month could modestly lift heating demand. 
  
  

Outlook
European prices are likely to stay rangebound in the near term, supported by high inventories but sensitive to colder weather or further Norwegian outages. In the US, prices may hover near current levels, with mild weather and strong production keeping the market well supplied despite record LNG exports. 

Ammonia

Prices surge as tight global supply extends into year-end; Tampa contract settles $60/t higher for November. 

Key Factors: 

• The ammonia market remains extremely tight, with limited spot availability east and west of Suez expected to persist through the remainder of 2025. While some participants anticipate supply improvement in Q4, current fundamentals suggest no immediate easing in prices.
•  At Tampa, Yara and Mosaic settled the November contract at $650/t CFR, marking a $60/t increase from October’s $590/t CFR and reflecting ongoing supply constraints and elevated feedstock costs.
•  Maintenance and outages across the Middle East and North Africa, along with continued gas curtailments in Egypt and Trinidad, have kept availability tight. 
• In Asia, reduced output in Indonesia and ongoing logistical challenges are further supporting bullish sentiment. 
  
  

Outlook 
Ammonia prices are likely to remain firm to higher through year-end, supported by persistent supply tightness and strong Q4 demand from both fertiliser and industrial sectors. Any meaningful softening will depend on restored capacity and improved gas availability in key producing regions. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

European nitrate prices firm as producers raise offers, UK market braces for potential spring supply tightness. 

Key Factors: 

• Nitrate values strengthened across Europe following Yara’s higher December AN and CAN offers, despite subdued near-term demand from distributors and farmers. The increases reflect both cost pressures and bullish sentiment from rising urea benchmarks. 
• In the UK, CF Fertilisers’ February offer represents a price rise, tracking the recent urea rally after India’s tender secured limited global volumes, a signal of tightening nitrogen availability. 
• Imported AN prices in the UK have yet to move but importers remain hesitant to secure large spring positions amid thin liquidity. 
• This caution could lead to restricted availability in Q1 2026, leaving spring supply vulnerable to shortfalls once farmer demand accelerates. 
  
  

Outlook 
Nitrate prices are expected to remain firm to higher into early winter, with tight supply and seasonal restocking likely to underpin values. UK farmers face growing risk of limited spring stocks and higher.  

Urea

Indian tender disappoints, triggering a global rally; UK import costs rise further on FX weakness. 

Key Factors: 

• The headline driver this week was India’s RCF tender, which closed with just 430,000 t of acceptances, well short of the 2 Mt target despite an extension to 28 October. The lack of participation demonstrates tight global supply and reluctance among key exporters, particularly from China and the Middle East. 
• The tender shortfall sparked a sharp rebound across global benchmarks. At US NOLA, granular urea barges traded at $395-400/st FOB, up from the mid-$370s earlier in October, as traders priced in the likelihood of a follow-up Indian tender in the near term. 
• Market participants now expect India to re-enter quickly, with estimates suggesting an additional 1.5–2.0 Mt could be required before year-end. 
• In the UK, import costs have climbed further as sterling weakened below £1.32 against the dollar, effectively adding £5-7/t over the past two weeks, compounding upward price pressure on replacement tonnes. 
  
  

Outlook 
Global urea markets are expected to remain firm to higher in the near term, driven by India’s shortfall, tight availability, and FX-related cost inflation for import-dependent regions like the UK. 

Phosphates

Prices extend gradual decline as buyer resistance grows; China’s export pause limits downside. 

Key Factors: 

• Phosphate prices continue to ease into Q4 as buyers resist elevated levels, with most now well-covered and less willing to chase supply than earlier in the year. 
• Global availability remains tight, but sentiment has shifted as the urgency seen mid-year has faded, particularly in Brazil and India, where inventory levels are more comfortable. 
• The market’s downside is being capped by limited new supply, with China exiting the export market again until at least Q2 2026, reducing available tonnes and stabilising sentiment. 
• Some regional price corrections are ongoing, especially for MAP, which remains under heavier pressure than DAP due to weaker downstream demand. 
  
  

Outlook 
Phosphate prices are expected to soften further through Q4, though tight supply and China’s export restrictions should prevent any major correction, keeping values historically elevated into early 2026. 

Potash

Market holds steady ahead of China contract talks; sentiment remains mildly bearish. 

Key Factors: 

• Potash prices remain rangebound, with most spot markets showing stable to slightly softer trends as demand stays muted and inventories remain adequate. 
• Market attention is shifting toward upcoming Chinese contract negotiations, which are expected to set the tone for early 2026 pricing. 
• Producers remain cautious, holding offers steady but facing mounting pressure to discount if demand fails to recover through Q4. 
  
  

Outlook 
Potash is expected to stay stable to soft near term, with direction hinging on China’s contract outcome and the pace of seasonal restocking in key import regions. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1368	1.3193	1.1602

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Oct25	140-150	155-170	195-205	410-415