Thursday 25 September 2025

Wheat

Global grain markets are under pressure from abundant supply, shifting trade flows and currency dynamics. Argentina’s suspension of export taxes, robust Black Sea exports and a strong US dollar are reshaping flows and weighing on futures. While technical rebounds occur, fundamentals remain bearish, leaving wheat, corn and soybeans capped by competition and sluggish demand.

Key Factors:

• In Argentina, the suspension of grain export taxes boosted Argentine competitiveness, spurred soybean and corn sales, and forced Brazil to front-load imports. This undercut US export prospects while adding further weight to already heavy global supply.
• Russian and Ukrainian wheat output remains strong, with aggressive export pricing dominating global tenders. Algeria and Jordan booked large volumes at competitive prices, sidelining French and US wheat. Rising Russian export taxes only marginally slowed flows.
• Turning to the US, Corn remains range-bound near $4.20–4.30/bu, with ethanol margins supportive but not expansive. Soybeans hover near $10/bu amid lost Chinese demand to Argentina. Wheat consolidates at contract lows, with US exports struggling against cheaper Black Sea origins despite occasional niche sales.
• In Europe, MATIF wheat held around €190/t, supported by a weaker euro and importer demand. Yet France is missing out on key tenders, and EU exports remain underreported. UK markets remain stagnant, with nearby premiums easing as farmers re-engage. Rapeseed held firmer relative to soybeans.
• On the macro front, a stronger US dollar and firmer crude oil shaped sentiment. Managed money cut net shorts in grains, but technical signals warn of bearish reversals. Broader macro factors, from currency volatility to geopolitics in the Black Sea, continue to override local fundamentals.
  
  

Outlook
With global supply swelling and Argentine exports reshaping flows, grain markets face continued downside risk absent fresh demand drivers. Technical rebounds may provide relief, but sustained rallies look capped by Black Sea dominance, sluggish US sales and a strong dollar. Seasonal harvest pressure and currency shifts will guide near-term direction.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets remain illiquid with subdued demand, ongoing quality downgrades, and heavily depressed export prices due to a large European surplus. Despite new crop values holding a premium, poor farm margins are expected to reduce barley planted area.

Key Factors:

• Demand for malting barley continues to be sluggish, and there is little talk of a recovery in the short term.
• Export prices are heavily depressed by a surplus in Europe, with FOB values below domestic malting barley and now even strong feed barley prices in the Southwest.
• New crop values maintain a healthy premium over old crop, necessary to incentivise planting amid challenging farm margins.
• A reduction in barley planted area is expected due to unfavourable gross margins on farm.
  
  

Outlook
Malting barley markets remain heavy in the short term, with little sign of improved demand or stronger bidding. However, some support may develop later in the season if demand returns, supported by lower availability this year and carryover stocks into the new crop.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets remain subdued, with expected supply keeping prices from appreciating, especially in the North. Export activity is limited, however domestic demand is something to watch as an area of potential support.

Key Factors:

• Another sluggish week for feed barley markets, with prices once again lower on the week as futures markets struggle to find a supportive tone. Physical supply remains sufficient, keeping pressure on prices, particularly in the North.
• Feed barley looks well priced in domestic markets, especially for ruminant demand. With reduced forage availability this season, it will be interesting to see how feed barley demand develops heading into winter, though it is clear that demand should remain supported.
• Some export business is taking place in Scotland, where a surplus of feed barley is available this season. This provides a much-needed price floor, as values have been in freefall since harvest began and the poor malting quality became apparent.
• Exports from England remain a relatively distant prospect, with domestic values still offering good value in comparison, although prices are beginning to converge with demand levels seen in Ireland.
  
  

Outlook
We are expecting to see a period of further consolidation for feed barley markets, with limited export business being offset by a stronger domestic demand outlook and slow farmer selling. Prices could see some support if this demand continues into the season, particularly if wider markets find a reason to rally.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets have had a choppy week this week. Last week’s trade talks between Trump and Xi offered little concrete progress, while Argentina’s suspension of soy export taxes added further weight to Chicago. Crude oil saw a volatile range as OPEC+ supply concerns battled against geopolitical tensions. Canola remained under pressure from sluggish exports, while MATIF rapeseed held firm at key technical levels, helped by supportive currency moves.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans came under sustained pressure, losing over 25 cents across the week, with no trade breakthrough in sight. Argentina’s suspension of export taxes has made their beans more competitive, diverting demand away from the US and improving Chinese purchases. Traders remain concerned about the sheer size of the US crop and the lack of Chinese buying, despite marginal support from harvest delays and slightly weaker crop ratings. Technical momentum remains heavy, with rallies struggling to break above resistance.
• The crude market oscillated between OPEC+ supply growth and Middle East disruptions. Russia pledged to offset port damage by boosting shipments from other locations, while Iraq and China posted steady export numbers. Later in the week, Chevron’s production cuts and a sharp US stock drawdown offered bullish momentum, lifting prices $2. Prices continue to chop within range, offering energy markets little clear trend direction for now.
• Canola futures traded sharply lower early in the week, pressured by the weaker soy complex and soft export demand, before stabilising as harvest advanced. New crop exports remain far behind last season at 575,000 mt versus 872,000 mt, underlining the lack of Chinese buying. Farmer selling picked up when bids briefly improved, but otherwise demand is subdued. Technically, canola is back at key support around $615, with resistance at the 20-day moving average still unbroken.
• MATIF rapeseed continues to trade within a tight €462–478 range on Feb, with €470 support on Nov holding firm. Ukraine’s new export duty has propped up the front end, eroding carries, but the market has so far failed to post a new high, with the 50-day moving average capping rallies. Strong Australian production prospects (circa 7.5mmt) add a bearish undertone for the longer term, though for now European values remain underpinned by currency and local supply concerns.
  
  

Outlook
Oilseeds markets remain rangebound but fragile. US soybeans face pressure from South American competition and slow Chinese demand, keeping rallies capped. Crude oil’s volatility will continue to filter into oilseeds but is unlikely to drive a breakout on its own. Canola’s weak export pace limits upside, while MATIF rapeseed needs fresh bullish input to break the current downtrend. Seasonal trends suggest modest support into October, but without trade resolution, upside potential looks limited. Overall, there is plenty of oilseeds in the world that need to find a home.

Oats

A lack of milling oat demand is encouraging prices lower.

Key Factors:

• Minimal bids from EU millers are starting to encourage milling prices lower as sellers are offering tonnages into a market void of demand. 
• Buyers are reported to be well covered for Q4 and parts of Q1 and their desire to buy on a hand to mouth basis is frustrating sellers. 
• Prices have fallen in all key EU areas; however farmer selling has been very slow. This lack of selling appetite will start to see the selling pressure ease once logistical sales have been made.
• Demand from customers typically heats up in Oct/Nov therefore we could see a pickup in bids in the coming weeks, but this is yet to be confirmed.
• Here in the UK farmer selling remains non existent with bids for milling oats falling to levels below where some feed oat buyers would value oats.
• Prices are already at export parity with the UK now the cheapest origin in Western Europe.
• Quality remains variable and with some consumers being more restrictive over quality some parcels of oats will end up going as livestock feed rather than going as milling.
• Low prices are continuing to impact growers decision making whilst they consider what to grow for harvest 2026.
  
  

Outlook
Low prices is lending to minimal farmer selling and this could have an impact on crop production for harvest 2026.

Pulses

UK and EU pulses continue to struggle for demand, with the shadow of the coming Australian new crop looming ever larger over the markets and applying more and more pressure. Human Consumption markets are now focussed on the aggressive values, with consumers calculating what is the minimum supply they can get away with until the new crop Australian will arrive. GBP has dipped slightly against the USD, although it is looking too little too late.

Key Factors:

• The coming Australian new crop continues to be met with near universal optimism across the piece, with buyer’s expecting a wave of export activity as soon as harvest begins in this crucial bean producing region. Destination stocks are healthy across North Africa, and so now the focus is turning on whether it is possible to eek these out until the more competitive and sort after Australian flows start arriving.
• Domestically, pressure continues to mount on beans, with fresh feed demand not forth coming. With on farm delivered rapemeal possible at <£180/mt across much of the UK, beans are significantly out of touch price wise. These cheaper NGFI feedstuff options, both homegrown and imported, are killing all but the most die-hard of diet inclusion. Realistically, beans need to discount by roughly £30/mt to capture interest beyond their core poultry sector outlets.

• The pea market has remained relatively stable over the past week, with limited uptake from consumers. Feed prices appear to have levelled off compared to the previous week, however we still have the issue of the significant stockpiles in Canada limit selling opportunities in the global market.
• On the other hand, there has been an uptick in demand for next year’s buyback contracts, driven by attractive gross margin opportunities.  But globally, all eyes will be on Canada’s planting intentions for the next season and their potential impact on global production.
  
  

Outlook
as with last week, the coming large Australian crop weighs heavy on both domestic and export markets. A slight retreat of GBP is helping but is nowhere near enough to entice fresh buying for export. Cheaper feed alternatives continue to limit the usage of beans by the feed sector, meaning beans still have plenty of work to do to find their place.


PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Autumn sowing is certainly in full swing – and many growers have made a strong start to sowing winter barley and winter wheat.  With good levels of soil moisture in many areas giving excellent seedbed conditions, it looks like drilling will continue at a pace over the next couple of weeks into early October looking at the medium-term weather forecast.  As we move through the season the market will also switch to those varieties well suited to drilling after root crops including potatoes/sugar beet and also maize.

Winter Barley

• There has been a sharp decline in the malting contracts for winter barley for Harvest 2026 – and we see this impact into the seed market
• Feed barleys have seen some demand – although the knock on of crop values – mean that several people are looking at alternatives within the rotation – however for many growers the rotational benefits of winter barley remain of interest – giving a spread of harvest.
• For those looking for malting types – we have Craft and Buccaneer available for prompt delivery with seed available on the floor.

• Feed options including LG Capitol – in the two-row category – and limited availability of the new six row hybrid Inys – along with SY Quantock and Kingsbarn – the hybrid types giving strong growth habit to aid weed suppression.
  
  

Winter Wheat

• Variety choice will be dependent on delivery requirements now – with many processors now onto short variety runs to meet demand.
• Skyfall: A mainstay of the group 1 market – with a wide sowing window giving added flexibility
• SY Cheer: New in 2024 – SY Cheer has performed well in 2025 trials – and is a strong partner to the new variety KWS Vibe or alongside those well-known farm favourites including Skyfall and Crusoe.

• KWS Scope: New for 2025 – this new group 4 hard feed wheat has performed well once again this season – showing its consistency across a number of differing seasons.  It is a solid choice across rotational position and soil types.
• LG Beowulf: Known for its strong disease resistance and high yield potential, making it a dependable and flexible choice for winter wheat – the variety continues to perform well over seasons.
• Bamford: A variety with good disease resistance and grain quality, ideal for various soil types and the perfect choice of Group 3.
• KWS Solitaire: NEW for 2025 – this variety has had a very good year in trial and sits as one of the highest yielding varieties available for planting this season – offering very high yield potential and the additional potential benefit of Group 3/soft market premiums and the addition of midge resistance to go alongside Bamford, it is certainly  one variety that has not captured the attention it deserves.
• Champion: Recognised for its high yield and strong Septoria resistance, making it a robust choice on farm.
  
  

Winter Beans

• Production will soon commence on winter beans as we move closer to October – varieties including Vespa and Vincent are available in limited quantities.
  
  

Outlook
Please keep in touch with your ADM Farm Trader to discuss any requirements you may have during the balance of the autumn drilling campaign.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas 

EU steady near €32/MWh with strong inventories; US futures slide on mild weather and high storage. 

Key Factors: 

• European futures held around €32/MWh, underpinned by inventories at 81.6% capacity (Germany 76.4%, France 90.6%, Italy 91%) and robust LNG inflows. 
• Renewables output remained strong, though forecasts point to cooler weather and weaker wind generation ahead. 
• EU proposed a full ban on Russian LNG imports from January 2027, while the US pledged to boost LNG supply into Europe as new capacity comes online. 
• US futures dropped to $2.80/MMBtu, their lowest in over four weeks, as inventories ran 6% above average and mild weather cut demand. 
• The latest EIA report showed a 90 Bcf storage build, well above the five-year average of 74 Bcf. 
• US output eased slightly to 107.4 bcfd in September from August’s record 108.3 bcfd, while LNG exports softened to 15.7 bcfd. 
  
  

Outlook 
EU gas prices should remain rangebound near-term, with cooler weather the key upside risk. In the US, mild forecasts and ample storage point to continued pressure, though LNG flows and any production slippage could limit downside. 

Ammonia 

Prices strengthen further as tight supply, and outages drive FOB Algeria higher. 

Key Factors: 

• Algeria’s Sorfert sold 30,000 t to Hexagon at $580/t FOB, following a 15,000 t sale to Trammo at $565/t FOB on 23 September. 
• The market has firmed sharply amid an outage at Ma’aden’s MPC unit in Saudi Arabia, expected to persist until at least December. 
• Global spot supply remains thin, with ongoing maintenance in the Middle East and Indonesia, and continued gas curtailments in Egypt and Trinidad & Tobago.
•  Ammonia is now trading around $230/t above levels seen at European new-season AN production, highlighting the squeeze. 
  
  

Outlook
Prices are expected to remain well supported into Q4, with outages and gas curtailments keeping supply tight and Algeria setting the market tone. 

Nitrates and Sulphates 

Markets remain under pressure as weak demand meets ample supply. 

Key Factors: 

• Prices continued to soften with thin liquidity and limited buyer engagement across regions. 
• Ample supply is adding downward pressure, most notably in Brazilian and Southeast Asian AS delivered markets. 
• In Europe, subdued farmer demand and low trading activity are keeping market sentiment muted. 
  
  

Outlook
Benchmarks are expected to drift lower near term, with buyers staying sidelined until urea provides clearer direction. 

Urea 

Prices under pressure, but India tender expected to provide near-term support. 

Key Factors: 

• In Egypt, Helwan has returned to full capacity, while other producers operating at 75–80% aim to resume full rates by early October. 
• US NOLA prices slid below $380/st FOB, with thin liquidity. September parcels traded at $390/st on 19 Sept, slipping to $384/st by 23 Sept. 
• Market sentiment weakened sharply over the past week, with values down from $400/st to sub-$385/st FOB. 
• Reports suggest RCF will issue a tender by 26 Sept for 1.5–2.0 Mt, following NFL’s purchase of just over 2 Mt for Oct shipment. 
  
  

Outlook
While the market has corrected lower, India’s expected tender could stabilise prices near term. Supply recovery in Egypt and ongoing weak demand elsewhere may limit any upside. 

Phosphates 

Market remains slow with limited downside likely, MAP weaker than DAP. 

Key Factors: 

• Prices edged lower, with MAP under more pressure than DAP. 
• Counters from Ethiopia’s DAP tender are expected shortly, while trades and offers to India are reported in the $790s/t CFR. 
• Broader activity remains muted, with buyers reluctant at current values. 
• Q4 phosphoric acid contracts to India are likely to settle flat, with rollover seen as the consensus. 
  
  

Outlook
Further limited declines are possible, but exceptionally tight availability continues to cap downside risks. Market direction hinges on tender outcomes and Indian contract settlements. 

Potash 

Prices under pressure as weak demand and fresh supply weigh on sentiment. 

Key Factors: 

• Producers face challenges sustaining spot levels, with offers at $380–390/t CFR sMOP meeting resistance despite support from palm oil. 
• Tender activity in Southeast Asia may provide marginal demand, though buyers remain hesitant. 
• In China, fresh seaborne arrivals added to supply pressure, pushing port MOP prices lower. 

• The October cross-border contract was signed at $352–355/t DAP Manzhouli for white 62% K₂O, up $7/t from September. 
  
  

Outlook
Global MOP prices are expected to remain flat-to-soft, with limited upside outside of seasonal demand pockets in Asia. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1452	1.3444	1.1738

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Sept25	134-145	151-171	200-206	400-410