Protect your returns against the ‘new season reset’
Not feeling inspired by the September 2025 wheat price? You’re not the only one. Many growers are looking at today’s values and thinking they don’t stack up against rising costs. But the market is giving you an option to do something about it — by taking advantage of the carry.
The chart tells the story. From September 2025 onwards, the carry builds steadily month by month. By spring 2026, forward positions are offering an extra £15–20/mt on top of the September base. The old crop/new crop inverse sees values decline as Harvest 26 is forecast to kick in, but the trend quickly recovers, and by the time we get into 2027, the carry is showing close to £30/mt above where September 2025 currently sits.
So, what does this mean for your business? It means that even if you don’t like today’s nearby price, you don’t have to settle for it. You can still sell wheat today, but choose a deferred delivery slot and capture that forward premium. In other words, you’re turning a disappointing market into something that works harder for your margin.
This strategy also helps guard against the “new season reset” at harvest, when pressure from fresh supplies often knocks prices lower. By getting on the front foot now, you’re locking in better values for the months ahead, protecting cashflow, and reducing risk.
With the carry as strong as it looks right out into 2026/27, it’s worth asking yourself: is the September price really the one to build your marketing plan on, or is the forward curve offering you a smarter way forward?
Nuello iN, the powerful biological seed treatment solution
Why Nuello iN Is a Smart Choice for Winter Wheat and Barley
As growers look to boost early crop performance and nitrogen use efficiency, Nuello iN from Syngenta offers a powerful biological seed treatment solution – especially for winter wheat and winter barley.
What Is Nuello iN?
Nuello iN contains two nitrogen fixing bacteria (Pseudomonas siliginis and Curtobacterium salicaceae) that colonize the plant, fixing atmospheric nitrogen throughout the season. This provides a natural, ongoing nitrogen boost from day one. Bethany Moses (ADM Agriculture’s Retail Seed Manager) says Nuello iN gives growers a clear establishment advantage: “Nuello iN helps crops get off to a stronger start. That’s the foundation for better returns.”
Key Benefits
- Helps reduce reliance on synthetic nitrogen by offering an additional, natural source, especially during high stress.
- Stronger Root Development. Trials show up to 20% more root biomass, improving nutrient uptake and establishment.
- Yield Support. Delivers a benefit equivalent to +30 kg N/ha.
- Improved Early Vigour. Supports stronger, more resilient crops in challenging early-season conditions.
Use Recommendations
- Apply with a fungicide like for best results.
- NuelloiN supplements, not replaces, synthetic N applications.
Bottom Line
Nuello iN is a reliable, science-backed way to enhance early growth, reduce nitrogen risk, and support more sustainable farming in winter cereals.
Secure Your Fertiliser for Your Date | Why Timing Matters in 2025/26
The single biggest lever: secure your product for your application time
Getting the right grade, with the right granulometry, from the right source, exactly when you need it isn’t a “nice-to-have”, it’s yield protection.
Forward scheduling does three things:
- Locks product choice (grade, inhibitor/treated options, bag/bulk/liquid).
- Books logistics capacity (haulage + terminal slots) before the spring rush.
- Signals importers to commit vessels and spread arrivals, improving UK availability.
What spring 2025 just taught the UK Agricultural Industry (and why we mustn’t repeat it in Spring 2026)
This spring, UK farms experienced lengthy delivery delays. Some orders weren’t fulfilled on time. The AIC reported demand up 20%, meaning ~£80m extra stock had to be sourced from abroad, equivalent to ~200 extra processing-plant days and ~8,000 additional farm deliveries. Jo Gilbertson (AIC) summed up the sourcing challenge: Europe’s “shortest routes” struggled, so the UK had to pull product from further afield, putting extra strain on distribution.
Affordability is tough and we get why so many are holding off
Grain prices have been subdued: through June–August, Nov-25 UK feed wheat sat broadly in the £170–£180/t area, reflecting soft global cereals. That weak output backdrop makes every fertiliser decision feel heavier.
On inputs, the picture moved the other way. UK fertiliser prices rose firmly through this year, DAP since January 1st 2025 has risen by 20.5%. These price rises across the fertiliser complex have been driven by heightened demand, global trade restrictions, supply cuts and geopolitical instability. Many traders have also flagged “historically bad affordability” as fertiliser and crop prices diverged in 2024/25. Argus reports affordability in mid-2025 at/near the weakest since early 2022.
Put simply: soft grain + firmer fertiliser = squeezed ratios. Holding off buying so far this year is understandable.
Why waiting now risks a re-run of spring’s problems
- Importer behaviour: Without forward orders, importers hesitate to commit cargoes. Spring 2025 showed what happens when volumes arrive late and bunched.
- Distribution physics: A compressed order surge saturates haulage, terminals and blending capacity, exactly what caused the delays this spring.
Practical playbook for 2025/26
- Decide your agronomy, then secure the slot. Match grade to crop plan now; book the delivery for your date.
- Use staged call-offs. Reserve volumes but call in by field/timing; that gives you flexibility while giving supply-chain visibility.
- Protect optionality. Early buyers typically retain choices on grade (AN/Urea/Inhibited), formulation (NPK/PK), and pack (Bag/Bulk/Liquid) that disappear in a spring scramble.
ADM Agriculture Ltd: Products & Delivery Windows
We’ve structured supply so you can book product now for delivery from spot through March 2026, aligning to your field timings.
National Product Coverage Including:
- Ammonium Nitrate (UK & imported grades)
- Granular Urea and inhibited urea options
- Liquid Nitrogen (UAN) via established liquid supply channels
- Compound NPK & speciality blends (including sulphur/trace element packages)
- Straights: MOP/DAP/TSP
- Recycled, cost effective nutrient options such as Fibrophos
Availability window: from spot to March 2026, with scheduled slots to protect your application dates (bag, bulk, or liquid by region).
To find out more on grades, prices and availability speak to your ADM Agriculture Farm Trader.
Summary
To round off, the feed wheat carry continues to present valuable opportunities for marketing decisions, while Nuello iN seed treatment offers clear benefits in driving strong establishment and early crop performance. It’s also worth remembering that timing remains crucial when planning fertiliser purchases, with early action often helping to secure both value and availability.
