Thursday 17 July 2025

Wheat

Grain markets showed mixed movement over the past week, with corn rebounding from contract lows, whilst wheat struggled under harvest pressure and high relative prices. USDA data revealed tighter global stocks but failed to lift sentiment. Favourable weather and weak export demand continue to cap upside in both European and U.S. markets, despite slow farmer selling.

Key Factors

• CBOT corn bounced from contract lows, supported by slower-than-expected Brazilian harvest progress and reduced U.S. production estimates. Technical buying and improved sentiment helped extend gains, though Brazilian record yields remain a looming bearish factor.
• Wheat prices continued to weaken despite tighter global stocks and sluggish Russian exports. Harvest pressure, and expensive wheat-corn price spreads are keeping wheat at a competitive disadvantage in feed markets despite protein concerns in Europe.
• MATIF wheat fluctuated around the €200/mt mark, under pressure from strong yields, but supported by limited farmer selling and a firmer Black Sea cash markets. UK markets remain isolated due to high basis and cheap EU competitors.
• Trump’s tariff threats on Russia, the EU and Mexico added geopolitical uncertainty. Despite this, favourable U.S. weather and improved crop ratings – especially in soybeans – have kept pressure on grains overall, capping bullish momentum.
• Harvests are advancing rapidly across the Northern Hemisphere. Early results suggest above-average yields but mixed protein levels in wheat across the EU, whilst here in the UK yields are more variable, but proteins appear to be better. Forward selling remains low, and much of the price discovery is shifting toward the physical market.
  
  

Outlook
Corn’s recent bounce may face resistance as record Brazilian and U.S. yields weigh on sentiment. Wheat remains fundamentally expensive versus corn and risks further downside if demand doesn’t pick up. With harvest peaking and trade flows sluggish, any sustained rally likely depends on geopolitical shifts or significant weather disruptions.

Malting Barley

Malting barley demand remains weak, keeping market sentiment bearish, though firmer feed prices and slow farmer selling have offered some support, while winter crop quality is largely acceptable and early spring barley shows mixed results with signs of high Nitrogen and screenings a potential concern.

Key Factors

• Demand in malting barley markets remains elusive, once again adding a bearish tone to the picture. However, after a heavy sell off in recent weeks, the market has found some support on firmer feed values and slow farmer selling.
• With the winter crop largely in the barn, quality results on the whole are very acceptable for malting.
• Early spring barley results are mixed but, as the market expected, we are seeing some early evidence of high Nitrogen content and high screenings. It is still too early to make any real judgement.
• The European harvest continues smoothly with little to report other than a very usable crop coming into the barn.
  
  

Outlook
Unless we see a major deterioration in yields/quality, it is likely that malting prices and premiums will continue to feel pressure as the demand deficit continues to rule sentiment, despite a pause for breath over the last week.

Feed Barley

The winter barley harvest has progressed well with good quality despite mixed yields, but market activity remains slow due to low spot prices, limited demand, and cautious farmer selling.

Key Factors

• Winter barley harvest has made rapid progress despite some rainy conditions creeping in, and the winter crop is now largely harvested in the South of the country. Yield has remained a mixed bag, but overall quality on the whole has been positive with low moistures and high test weights. We are yet to see meaningful volumes of spring barley harvested.
• Most market activity has been focussed on the spot position, with traders looking to pick up harvest volumes, however farmer selling has remained slow due to low spot prices, and strong carries through to the later months.
• Demand once again has been subdued. We have seen a small amount of export business concluded on the week which is trading slightly higher, supported by stronger futures, weaker GBP and slow farmer selling. Appetite from the domestic feed industry remains limited.
• With a large carry pricing into the deferred positions, and lower feed demand expected year on year, we expect to see some pressure to these carries as the market on paper needs to find demand, all subject to farmer selling which remains the limiting factor.
  
  

Outlook
Flat price movements should continue to follow the lead of wider macro grain markets. Barley in isolation is looking expensive and we expect will need to push lower in order to unlock demand as we head into the season, however in the short term we could see continued support if farmers continue to hold volumes from the market.

Rapeseed

A mixed week for agricultural markets, Soybean price movements led higher on reported export trade but capped by higher than expected crop conditions. Crude oil remained volatile which in turn pressured vegetable oils. Canola softened under limited buying and improved weather, while MATIF rapeseed reacted to harvest pressure and logistics concerns. Trade policy rhetoric from President Trump impacts currency markets and shifts in global demand created additional market tension.

Key Factors

• Outside market impacts flow into Ag markets. Trump’s tariff threats on the EU, Mexico, and Russia, along with leadership changes at the Fed, shook FX markets and indirectly influenced commodity pricing. Still, lack of concrete trade deals—especially with China—limited market confidence.
• CBOT soybeans fluctuated but trended lower as improving crop conditions with a 4% increase in good to excellent ratings and favourable U.S. weather increased yield expectations to 52.5 bpa.  We did see support from recent export sales, yet the lack of a U.S.-China trade agreement limited upside potential.
• Crude oil saw mixed movements, with inventory builds outweighing recent demand gains. This volatility pressured soy and palm oil, though soy oil remained relatively resilient on biofuel interest and firm U.S. crush margins.
• Canadian canola prices declined amid improved weather conditions and low trading volumes. Rain and cooler temperatures improved yield prospects, while Chinese interest was subdued, pending anti-dumping resolutions—though trial Australian cargoes suggest potential demand revival.
• MATIF rapeseed prices saw a big gain on the back of the weaker Euro earlier in the week, but the gains couldn’t be sustained. EU harvest continues to progress with yields falling inline if not exceeding expectations in some regions.
  
  

Outlook
U.S. weather continues to support crop development and yield forecasts rising, soybean and canola prices may remain under pressure unless export demand surges. Volatility in energy and currency markets will likely persist as geopolitical tensions evolve. All eyes remain on upcoming trade policy moves and potential shifts in global buying behaviour.

Oats

Key Factors

• European oat markets have seen minimal activity this week with some key participants on holiday.
• Initial production forecasts from Finland and Spain continue to be good with Spain likely to import high grade milling oats in the coming months.
• Feed demand remains poor with multiple sellers looking for homes and with Spain likely to be a feed exporter this year, the feed balance sheet could be heavy.
• Here in the UK early harvest results are mixed with some winter testing well with specific weights 52-56kg/hl, however there are reports of some testing sub 46kg/hl.
• The spring oat crop remains the big concern with the high dry conditions expected to have caused serious damage to quality. But with harvest yet to start it is way too early to make any conclusions on this.
• Demand for milling oats remains challenging with buyers largely out of the market. This lack of demand is causing prices to fall, but with values now in line with feed values it is hard to see how prices can fall any lower. This could also make it difficult to buy with farmers likely to be very resistant sellers.
  
  

Outlook
Confirmation of quality in Scandinavia and the UK is needed to help direct both the milling and feed markets, but until then liquidity is likely to be slow.

Pulses

With another week of broadly hot and dry conditions, the pulse harvest continues to make progress, despite an unseasonally early start, especially for beans. With thunderstorms in the forecast and a reasonable amount of rain forecast over the weekend, it could help ease some of the pressure in peas around soaking scores.

Key Factors

• Pulse activity has again been relatively quiet, although there has been some limited interest in new crop beans. The spot market has started to pick up slightly as harvest kicks in and growers look to move newly combined beans off farm – the only sticking point is the trade was broadly expecting to be doing this in mid-August, and so is still busy supplying old crop beans. In a season where beans already felt heavy, expect the burgeoning supply over the next couple of weeks to weigh heavy on spot prices as the market tries to incentivise growers to hold on to their beans until later in the season.
• Bean values remain under pressure however, it is still not enough – with alternative feedstuffs such as Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal still looking aggressive in the diets, and cheap wheat on the cereal leg, feed beans in to the UK domestic market need to come c. £25/mt to get a look in. With the recent losses on GBP though, this is bringing us a little more in line with Baltic beans, although it is not yet enough.

• The UK combinable pea harvest has begun, and whilst early yields are lower than last year, they remain in line with expectations given the weather conditions so far. There is concern that later crops may follow the trend of declining vining pea yields, although it is just too early to say. Scattered showers are also likely to slow harvest progress, yet the impact of the recent heatwave on the crop is also unknown.
• The overall quality of the Pea crop is still uncertain, much like the Beans, with early cut samples currently under assessment. Meanwhile, consumer demand continues to lag behind normal levels, putting short-term pressure on prices.
  
  

Outlook
With harvest gathering pace on both Peas and Beans, expect harvest pressure to start weighing heavy on nearby prices, as the trade continues to execute old crop purchases on a relatively full order book. With everything coming ready both early and at once, pressure on storage will likely be amplified, meaning the carry into the deferred periods will be exaggerated.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

At ADM Agriculture, we offer a robust portfolio of winter cereal, pulse and oilseed varieties tailored to meet diverse growing conditions and individual requirements. Each variety is selected for high yield potential, disease resistance, and strong agronomic performance, giving growers reliable options across their cropping choices.

Key Factors

• Our OSR range includes vigorous varieties like Duplo and Aviron that establish quickly to resist early pests. Maverick leads for maximum yield, while LG Academic, DK Excited, and Hinsta offer solid disease resistance including TuYV and pod shatter. Karat delivers premium oil content at 46.8%. Conventional favourites Pi Pinnacle and Campus remain popular choices.
• Our winter wheat portfolio features high-performing varieties such as LG Beowulf, Bamford, and Champion, each selected for their strong yield potential, disease resistance, and agronomic resilience to meet diverse farm requirements.
• Leading the way in the barley market, conventional varieties LG Capitol and LG Caravelle continue to offer high yields, on par with some of the hybrids.
• Hybrid barley continues to be a good choice for its agronomic uses, including grassweed suppression and early harvest with the additional benefits of straw yield. KWS Inys is at the top of the Recommended List complimented by its impressive standing ability.
  
  

Outlook
As drilling time nears, creating optimal seedbed conditions remains critical. A fine, firm seedbed with well-drained, moist soil it key to promote uniform germination and early root development.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
Stable supply caps European prices; US futures rise on heat-driven demand and strong LNG flows.

Key Factors

• European gas futures eased to €35/MWh as steady Norwegian flows and muted geopolitical fears cooled last week’s momentum.
• President Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Russia has reduced immediate supply risk, though tensions may resurface as Norway’s seasonal maintenance begins late August.
• A North Asian heatwave is drawing LNG away from Europe, raising concerns over tighter availability as winter storage builds lag—currently at 62%, below seasonal norms.
• Cooling demand in parts of Europe remains elevated, though forecasts point to a return to average temperatures by late July.
• US futures rose above $3.5/MMBtu up ~1% as extreme heat across the Lower 48 boosted power sector gas demand.
• July output hit 106.9 bcfd, up from June’s record, while LNG feedgas rose to 15.8 bcfd, nearing full recovery post-maintenance.
  
  

Outlook
Europe’s market remains rangebound for now but diverging LNG flows and below-average storage could add late-summer risk. In the US, weather and export momentum are reinforcing support above $3.5, though gains may moderate as demand tapers slightly.

Ammonia
Prices remain steady to firm as the market monitors potential supply constraints.

Key Factors

• Ammonia pricing continues to hold at stable levels, with a slight upward bias as the second half of July begins.
• While some constraints were anticipated, they have yet to translate into firm upside in the market.
• Buyers remain measured, with limited urgency to cover forward positions until supply risk becomes more visible.
  
  

Outlook
Absent any material disruption, prices are expected to remain steady to firm. A breakout to the upside would require clearer evidence of constraint or a shift in downstream demand.

Nitrates and Sulphates
Prices remain firm as global urea strength lifts substitution demand, particularly in Brazil.

Key Factors

• Nitrate and sulphate markets are holding firm, supported by last week’s sharp rise in global urea values.
• In Brazil, ammonium sulphate pricing gained traction as buyers turned to alternatives in response to urea-led affordability pressure.
• Overall sentiment is steady, with no signs of near-term softening despite seasonally slower demand.
  
  

Outlook
With urea prices still elevated and substitution interest growing, nitrates and sulphates are likely to maintain current levels through the second half of July.

Urea
Market outlook firming as Indian demand absorbs global tonnes and Brazilian buying looms.

Key Factors

• India’s RCF extended its urea tender deadline again this week, ultimately securing around 1.46 million tonnes for shipment by 22 August.
• Although below the 2 million tonne target, this volume has significantly tightened short-term global availability.
• IPL is now expected to launch a follow-up tender, further reinforcing buying pressure.
• In China, a second round of urea export quotas is now expected at 1.2 to 1.6 million tonnes, up from initial estimates of 0.8 to 1 million tonnes.
• News of increased Chinese availability initially weighed on sentiment, but fundamentals—driven by tight supply and strong Indian absorption—overrode downside momentum.
• The market continues to monitor for a return of Brazilian demand, which could add another layer of support.
• Supply remains structurally tighter following the estimated loss of around 800,000 tonnes during recent Middle East disruptions.
  
  

Outlook
Despite short-lived pressure from Chinese quota speculation, global fundamentals remain firm. With India’s tender partially filled, another round expected, and Brazilian interest building, urea values are likely to trend upward through the second half of July.

Phosphates
Granular phosphate prices climb further as tight supply persists and Indian buying continues at higher levels.

Key Factors

• Prices for DAP and MAP are expected to rise again this week, with supply remaining exceptionally limited and buyers still holding open positions.
• India’s NFL awarded its 7 July MoU tender for 50,000 tonnes of DAP at around $814 per tonne CFR, up from last week’s $804–810 per tonne.
• Market participants are awaiting Bangladesh’s next major DAP and TSP tender, which could add further upside momentum.
• Chinese export activity remains restricted, with the market watching closely for confirmation of a second round of DAP and MAP quota allocations.
• Mainstream Chinese DAP prices have climbed to $770–780 per tonne FOB, up from $750–760 last week and $690–700 in mid-June, reflecting continued strong demand and limited remaining quota.
  
  

Outlook
With global availability tight, Indian demand firm, and Chinese supply still controlled, granular phosphate prices are poised to continue rising into late July. Any large tender activity or quota changes will be key to longer term price direction.

Potash
All eyes on Indonesia tender as market seeks direction; sentiment remains firm.

Key Factors

• Pupuk Indonesia has issued a tender for 246,000 tonnes of standard MOP and 8,000 tonnes of granular MOP for delivery from August through December.
• Initial offers were reportedly between $410 and $420 per tonne CFR for standard MOP, and $440 to $450 per tonne CFR for granular MOP.
• Although broader trading activity remains limited, the market is watching this tender closely for price signals.
• Sentiment continues to lean bullish, supported by recent contract settlements and the potential for stronger second-half demand.
  
  

Outlook
With firm price expectations and thin liquidity, the outcome of the Indonesia tender is likely to shape near-term pricing benchmarks. Buyers and sellers alike are holding positions until clearer direction emerges.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1527	1.3417	1.1635

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
July25	135-145	150-170	200-210	380-390