Thursday 3 July 2025

Wheat

Grain markets extended their bearish trend, hitting new contract lows across wheat and corn amid favourable weather, increasing global crop estimates, and lacklustre demand. Despite short-term stabilisation and minor support from short-covering, the broader sentiment remains negative, with global supply strength and a strong euro weighing heavily on European prices in particular.

Key Factors

• The IGC, USDA, and analysts like Datagro and AgroConsult, all lifted global wheat and corn production estimates, primarily driven by strong harvests in Brazil, India, and Romania. The Brazilian corn forecasts now range from 134 to 150mmt, whilst EU soft wheat and corn output projections also saw modest increases.
• The EUR/USD exchange rate surged to fresh 4-year highs, pressuring MATIF wheat and EU exports. MATIF wheat closed at new contract lows throughout the period, as the strengthening EUR made European grains less competitive globally, amplifying already bearish trends despite low farmer selling.
• Monday brought the latest instalment of the USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports, which were generally seen as neutral to bearish. Corn stocks were slightly above expectations, but down year-on-year, whilst wheat stocks came in at the top of the range, confirming ample supply. Minor acreage changes gave no bullish surprises, reinforcing the downward pressure on wheat prices.
• UK wheat faces growing export challenges, with the agreement for tariff-free US ethanol imports undermining domestic bioethanol demand. This development adds to an already burdensome stock forecast in the face of a weak demand outlook. Following this, London wheat futures hit new lows, despite thin volumes and slow farmer selling.
• Northern Hemisphere barley and very early wheat harvests, especially in France, Germany, and Romania, advanced under favourable weather, adding harvest pressure to already fragile markets. US corn conditions improved again, while wheat slipped slightly. Watchpoints remain in Eastern Europe, where heat moving West form the recent wave may threaten late crops.
  
  

Outlook
Without a bullish catalyst, prices look set to remain under pressure. Any relief rallies potentially from short-covering or adverse weather in Eastern Europe are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities. Currency strength, burdensome stocks, and cheaper competing crops continue to limit upside in the short term.

Barley

This week has all been about the incoming new crop harvest with limited volumes starting to come online in the Midlands, Lincs, East Anglia and down into Kent, with early yields looking good.

Key Factors

• Those items mentioned last week are still largely in play despite combines rolling in some parts of the UK, muted demand, lack of export competitiveness and slow farmer selling remain key themes.
• Early winter yields are looking positive and lend further support to the view that new crop barley has a lot of work to do to find end-user demand particularly for the harvest position, where we are still looking expensive and out competed against other EU origins, particularly Germany and the Black Sea.
• With wheat futures still coming under pressure both in the US and Europe, ex farm barley remains glued to the floor for spot movement, and what farmers choose to do will be interesting subject to the captive supply we anticipate in some areas.
  
  

Outlook
With demand sparing with consumers and merchants and other origins/products looking cheaper, UK feed barley has work to do in order to deal with the incoming glut of grain as we expect the winter crop to start coming online more readily next week.

Rapeseed

Markets have continued their fall this week with pressure from favourable US conditions and a positive looking harvest pressuring markets as well a strong currency moves meaning that European markets have had to fight for competitiveness.

Key Factors

• This week we have seen the USDA’s latest revision for old crop stocks and acreage. Soybean planted area for 2025 is estimated at 83.4 million acres, 4% lower than last year. USDA stocks came in at 1.01 billion bushels, a 4% increase from this time last year. Following this, the focus has reverted to the weather forecast which has been and remains favourable. This has helped to continue reducing the area of soybeans in drought as well as give us a 1% shift from good to excellent this week, though Good/Excellent ratings stayed steady at 66%. In South America, Brazilian soybean forecasts continue to improve with StoneX now increasing their forecast to 168.75 mmt from 168.25 mmt previously. We also saw Datagro update their Brazil crop forecast from 172mmt to 173.5mmt.
• Crude oil hasn’t shown any significant price moves this week. Chinese crude demand seems to have picked up with Reuters reporting that they imported over 1.8 million barrels per day from Iran during the first three weeks of June. EIA crude stocks fell more than expected last week and currently sit at the lowest they have been for this time of year for the last 5 years. Fresh breaking news has been limited, though we can see that OPEC+ are expected to lift its production quota by 411,000 barrels per day again in August as they have done for the last three months.
• It has been a short week for Canadian markets with trading closed on 1^st July for ‘Canada Day’. Oilseed processors crushed 831,200mt of canola in May, which is 9.6% lower than April and 9.7% lower than last year. Deliveries of Major grains also fell 10.5% from May last year with canola down 29% due to the already high stocks figures at crushes/ports.
• MATIF rapeseed prices have also continued their downward trajectory this week, with both August and November contracts falling back to old key levels as early harvest reports look positive. Yields in France have come in slightly above average which has helped make the S&D more comfortable for the year. In the coming weeks as we continue to get into harvest, we are likely to see further increases if yields come in as expected. From here, price has reached a decent level of support, though we are now in the window which we would typically expect harvest pressure which will make any significant recovery unlikely.
  
  

Overview
As we see more countries get underway with harvest, we will have a better idea of how comfortable the S&D is, though we have already seen Chinese expected demand pick up which is set to be fulfilled by Canada. Canadian stocks remain high for now and the crop in the ground looks to be getting off to a positive start. In the short term the focus will continue to be logistics and timing around harvest sellers which will cap any gains both in the UK and Europe. If the EUR/USD keeps its higher trend going, we will also struggle to make any significant gains in MATIF.

Oats

UK Barley harvest has got underway with mixed results, will this be a sign of things to come with the UK oat crop?

Key Factors

• Crop tours in Northern Germany and some of the Baltic states are revealing some optimism around quality and quantity, however the crop is still at risk given it is still to be harvested.
• Planting data from Finland has suggested an 8% reduction in oat plantings and this will lower supplies versus last year.
• Spanish oat harvest is well under way with slightly disappointing yields being reported. That said yields are well up on normal but just less than what some were hoping for.
• Milling oat demand should see a pickup once we get closer to harvest with some consumers reporting they have positions in Q4 still to cover. But they are waiting to see how crops fair before pulling the buy trigger.
• Here in the UK the winter oat crop is soon to commence with growers reporting that the recent heat waves have brought on crop maturity quite quickly. Some crops may be ready in the grain but not in the straw and this could see some growers combine sooner than they should, and this could hamper yields.
  
  

Millers have capacity to fill for Aug/Sept and Q4 positions but are awaiting fresh buy orders from their customers before they look to lock into further purchases. 

Outlook
With harvest about to begin in western Europe many are keen to see what both quality and quantity is like before conducting further business.    

Pulses

After a week of high temperatures and still no rainfall, Pulse crops have been feeling the pressure, with anecdotal reports of Beans aborting pods in some of the hotter areas of the UK and Vining Peas cooking off in the fields and being bypassed. However, with cooler temperatures and more showers in the forecast, will this be enough to take some of the pressure out of the crop, or is it too little too late?

Key Factors

• A quiet week for pulses in general, with pea vining continuing at a decent pace. Vining yields have reportedly been good so far, so fingers crossed this will be a good benchmark for combining peas and beans! Other than this, the market has been very quiet again as the trade waits for new crop to come on force.
• There has been little interest from either buyers or sellers on new crop beans, with the focus on stray old crop top ups, although these are becoming few and far between. On the new crop, it is a case of hurry up and wait. The recent downward slide in London has dragged bean values lower, but not enough to become competitive vs either the Baltic for export, or other feedstuff options on the domestic footing. As with previous weeks, UK feed beans still need to come down c. £25/mt to become competitive against commodities such as rapeseed meal.
• The weather outlook, whilst less ideal for those harvesting winter barley, is turning more positive for pulses in the coming week, with lower temperatures and more increased rainfall. Whilst cumulative rainfall is not expected to surpass 20mm in most areas, it is certainly a welcome relief, as beans have reportedly been aborting the upper pods where they were under heat stress.
• Very little to report on peas apart from the hot dry weather is now a cause for concern for quality combinable pea crops. Consumers are still sidelined waiting for direction after harvest starts. Early French crops so signs of good quality whilst here in the UK vining peas still seems to be yielding well for now.  Pea prices have remained steady on a week-on-week basis.
  
  

Outlook
So close, yet so far… With a more favourable weather forecast on the cards for pulse crops, it remains to see whether this is enough to help ease the pressures of the last couple of weeks, however there is some optimism beans especially continue to look good, and as we enter the final stages of pod filling, we will likely see crops continue to make good progress towards harvest. Winters are looking better than springs, however with beans being generally uncompetitive vs other origins or options, prices still need to come lower.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

July is here, and with the sun shining over the past few weeks, several combines are now rolling across England as the harvest of some of our Winter Barley seed crops gets underway.

Key Factors

• OSR drilling season fast approaches, and we are pleased to offer a range of varieties both new and old to suit several situations and scenarios. Some new varieties we are excited about are Karat and Maverick (NPZ Plant Breeding) and Hinsta (KWS). Karat is currently a candidate OSR variety with incredible yields and brilliant stem health. Maverick is the highest yielding recommended variety on the AHDB Recommended List and boats a 9 for stem canker. Finally, Hinsta, new from KWS, this variety is packed full of traits including pod shatter resistance and TuYV. Hinsta is also available on an establishment scheme, but packs are limited.
• Our OSR portfolio also contains some on farm favourites like LG Academic, Duplo, DK Excited and Aviron. DK Excited is available on an establishment scheme and Duplo is available on a sale or return scheme.
• Companion cropping is a great idea for those looking to help minimise the risk of CSFB. Our most popular mixtures include fenugreek, berseem clover and buckwheat. These species are also available as straights.
• The new 4S variety, RGT Hexton is a real stand out, with high yields (particularly in the North), ideal for the second cereal position and light soils, this variety really suits numerous situations! It looks clean and will no doubt be in demand this year. Seed is limited across the trade, so it is advised to book soon to avoid disappointment.
  
  

Outlook
Markets face a mixture of opportunity and challenge this season. Success will hinge on securing quality seed early, managing disease pressures effectively, and leveraging innovations in agronomy. Growers who plan proactively and engage with trusted suppliers are best positioned to capitalise on market stability and deliver strong, resilient crops in 2025/26.    

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
European futures rebound modestly as supply steadies and geopolitical risk fades; US prices slide to six-week low on mild weather and rising output.

Key Factors

• European gas rose to €34/MWh, rebounding from an eight-week low of €33/MWh as the recent sell-off stabilised.
• Cooling demand is easing with the end of the heatwave, while stronger wind generation in NW Europe is further reducing gas burn.

• Norwegian flows and LNG send-outs remain stable, boosting supply security.
  EU set to propose a binding 2040 climate target of 90% emissions reduction, potentially reshaping long-term gas demand.
• China’s softer LNG demand amid economic headwinds and higher US tariffs has diverted cargoes to Europe, adding downside pressure.
• US futures fell below $3.4/MMBtu on increased production (105.9 bcfd in June) and tempered summer heat forecasts.
• US LNG exports dipped to 14.4 bcfd, down from 15.0 bcfd in May, while Middle East tensions eased after a formal ceasefire announcement.
  
  

Outlook
With stable supply and lower weather-driven demand, both European and US gas markets may remain under mild downward pressure. Traders are eyeing climate policy developments and LNG flows for directional cues.

Ammonia
Tight supply triggers price floor as Q3 outlook turns bullish; upside tempered by looming capacity expansions.

Key Factors

• Supply has tightened on both sides of the Suez, prompting a sooner-than-expected price floor and upward momentum through year-end.
• July Tampa benchmark reversed course, rising $25/t after six months of declines, following an outage at Mosaic’s 500,000 t/y Faustina plant.
• Market also watching for potential Q3 feedgas curtailments in Trinidad, echoing disruptions seen in late Q2.
• Downside risks linger from upcoming capacity additions in the US Gulf, Russia, China, and Qatar.
• EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could further pressure delivered prices into NW Europe.
• First exports from Woodside Energy’s 1.1 Mt/y Texas plant are expected in late 2025, adding bearish weight into 2026.
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia prices are poised to firm through Q3 and Q4, supported by short-term supply constraints. However, structural downside risk builds heading into 2026 as new global capacity comes online.

Nitrates
Market steadies after last week’s rally; tight supply in AS limits downside despite softer seasonal demand.

Key Factors

• Nitrate prices are holding firm as the market consolidates recent gains, particularly in ammonium sulphate (AS), where supply remains constrained.
• Buying activity across Europe and the UK has slowed seasonally as harvest nears.
• Despite natural gas easing, stronger ammonia pricing underpins stability in ammonium nitrate (AN), reducing the likelihood of post-harvest price dips.
  Buyers delaying decisions in hopes of a significant correction may find limited room for downside.
  
  

Note
The UK will impose additional duties on nitrogen fertiliser imports from Russia and Belarus starting 18 July, gradually rising from 10% to 35% by 2027, per the UK Department for Business and Trade.

Outlook
With AS supply tight and ammonia trending higher, nitrate prices are expected to hold current levels. Seasonal slowdown is already priced in, and major corrections appear unlikely in the near term.

Urea
Prices soften on improved supply, but India and Brazil demand should maintain market floor.

Key Factors

• Global urea prices eased slightly, but remain well above pre-conflict levels, with India and Brazil expected to support the floor.
• Egypt’s Mopco restarted production 25 June after a two-week outage; recent sales at $455/t FOB mark a sharp rebound from $400/t prior to shutdown.
• New Mopco tender for 5,000–7,000 t was issued 1 July for July loading.
  Algerian FOB values peaked at $536/t amid earlier tightness.
• In Brazil, July shipments were sold at $450/t CFR into Vitoria, down from early-week highs of $500–515/t. Chinese product offered as low as $425/t CFR.
• US NOLA barge prices rose to $403–405/st FOB, with some thin trades at $398/st, reflecting a modest rebound from last week’s $385/st.
  
  

Outlook
While price pressure has emerged from returning supply, strong demand from Brazil and the upcoming Indian tender (closing 7 July) are expected to prevent a steep correction.

Phosphates
DAP prices climb toward $820/t CFR as India’s shortage deepens and Ethiopia continues to absorb key global tonnes.

Key Factors

• DAP/MAP prices continue to rise globally, with India’s spot market now in the $780s/t CFR — up over $140/t since March.
• HURL extended its 30 June tender to 7 July after receiving no offers, suggesting buyers may need to pay above current spot to secure cargoes.
• Despite a moderate $105/t Q3 increase in phosphoric acid contracts, downstream DAP pricing remains strongly bullish.
• India’s DAP stocks are low, with the government offering loss coverage to support import volumes and offtake deals with OCP helping bridge supply gaps.
• Ethiopia has shifted from NPS to DAP, absorbing over 1 Mt in H1 2025 and tightening availability further.
  
  

Outlook
With Indian importers scrambling for coverage and Ethiopia’s early-season buying complete, global DAP values are forecast to hit early $800/t CFR by August. Concerns over affordability are mounting, but supply remains too tight to trigger a reversal just yet.

Potash
Prices trend higher post-contract, but resistance builds in Brazil as Indian buyers return.

Key Factors

• Global potash prices continue to adjust upward following recent contract settlements in China and India.
• Market focus is shifting to Brazil, where some believe prices are approaching a ceiling amid softening sentiment.
• India’s NFL reissued a tender for 60,000 t of pink/red MOP (2 x 30,000 t), closing 10 July, after receiving no offers in its 20 June tender.
• Tender covers both east and west coast ports.
  
  

Outlook
With contract floors in place, potash prices are still firming — but buyers in Brazil and India may test the market’s upper limits. Tender results will be watched closely for signs of fatigue or renewed tightness.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1643	1.3744	1.1802

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
July25	130-140	150-160	205-215	380-390