Thursday 19 June 2025

Wheat

Global grain markets remained volatile over the past week, with a relatively bearish and docile start, giving way to a more bullish flurry (Although turning lower at the time of writing), driven by geopolitical tensions, shifting weather patterns, slow US harvest progress, and neutral USDA data. Wheat led market movements, surging late in the week due to technical breakouts and risk covering. European and UK markets followed, but domestic ethanol demand concerns continue to cloud the UK’s outlook.

Key Factors

• The June USDA WASDE report brought few surprises, largely aligning with trade expectations. While global wheat ending stocks were cut slightly, significant changes to South American production were deferred until July. Lack of surprises kept markets flat initially, sustaining the bearish tone seen earlier in the week.
• Growing escalation in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts heightened macro-market volatility. While initially muted in their grain market impact, recent intensification and related energy price spikes are pushing traders to price in additional risk, with Trump’s G7 exit and potential increased US involvement playing on traders’ minds.
• Improving weather in the Northern Hemisphere pressured prices early in the week. However, a midweek US wheat crop rating downgrade and delayed harvest progress triggered a price rebound, amplified by a weaker dollar and technical buying. European wheat output estimates rose on favourable weather, with Strategie Grains and the USDA both lifting projections.
• The UK-US trade deal raised fears of cheaper US ethanol imports undermining domestic demand. Plants like Vivergo and Ensus face closure risks, potentially increasing the UK’s exportable wheat surplus and weighing on domestic prices.
• Chicago wheat’s decisive break above $5.70/bu drove global markets higher, with Matif and London hitting one-month highs. However, the surge widened wheat-corn spreads, potentially reducing wheat’s competitiveness in feed markets and making the rally vulnerable.
• Stronger wheat prices contrast with persistent global supply optimism—improved crop ratings, better harvest weather, and ample Black Sea exports. The recent price rally appears sentiment-driven, catalysed by positioning and volatility, rather than any major supply disruption. At the time of writing, European grain markets are turning slightly lower, but with the US closed today for the Juneteenth national holiday, all eyes will be on where CBOT opens back up tomorrow.
  

Outlook
The short-term grain market outlook remains volatile, with geopolitics and speculative positioning now driving direction more than fundamentals. While technical rallies may continue short-term, abundant global supply and weak demand fundamentals suggest any strength is likely to be short-lived unless backed by further disruption or weather shocks, or funds piling in with big -volume short covering.

Malting Barley

Malting markets weaken amid low demand, however the market has supply and quality concerns for the UK spring crop after a tough season.

Key Factors

• Malting markets continue to drift as the lack of demand continues to undermine sentiment, meanwhile early cuts in France progress without issue.
• Supply concerns remain however, particularly for the UK spring crop, following a tough growing season and a hot week in the forecast. Yield expectations are variable by region, but undoubtedly down.
• Quality concerns are widely speculated following a sub-optimal growing season for the spring crop, and as always the market is eager to see the first cuts in order to gauge the extent of any potential damage.
  

Outlook
As we enter a key window for the crop, price direction is becoming extremely challenging to predict. Prices are pushing lower, and on face value the S&D looks healthy amid struggling industry demand which points to lower premiums still. However, the market is driven by sentiment, which could swing drastically if we see problems with the harvest.

Feed Barley

The calm before the storm, and feed barley markets remain inactive with prices pushing lower amid slow demand and a looming harvest.

Key Factors

• Old crop continues to trade at a premium to the harvest market as traders tidy up their last requirements, but with harvest only weeks away, this price inverse shouldn’t last for long.
• New crop continues to weaken steadily as harvest draws near and the market looks to position themselves ahead of the expected uptick in farmer selling.
• UK barley is still struggling for export demand, once again being outcompeted by neighbouring origins, in a tricky demand environment.
  

Outlook
Once again, UK barley remains expensive versus other origins and products, but with harvest just around the corner, we may see a push lower if farmers come to the table to market their produce. An uptick in futures is providing a welcome bump to sentiment, and if it continues, will help to support flat prices as we head into harvest.

Rapeseed

Agricultural markets have been on edge so far again this week, as global conflict escalations continue to provide an increasingly uncertain landscape. As we stand, there doesn’t seem to be any sign of de-escalation between Israel and Iran, or Russia and Ukraine, which is having an impact mostly on crude oil and currency. We have also seen important updates from the US surrounding

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans have been supported to a new high this week, by both higher crude oil prices and higher soy oil. On Friday, we saw a release from the US which showed much higher US biomass mandates compared to expectations that lead to soy oil trading limit up for the day. Soybeans also saw some support from a drop in US good/excellent ratings to 66%, 2% lower than last week. The USDA report didn’t bring much excitement. The main point of note was an increase in world ending stocks for both crop years by just under 1mmt compared to expectations. This was still a neutral result. In South America, CONAB raised their soybean crop estimates up by 1.3mmt to 169.6mmt.
• Crude oil has been unsurprisingly volatile, adding significant war premium and so far, trading up to $8 higher and trading within range since. The conflict has prompted some countries to increase crude stocks due to potential supply disruptions, though exactly how this will impact logistics going forward as the situation changes daily.
• Canola has managed to make a new high again this week, supported by both energies and soy oil. The higher US biomass mandates means that there is a share of US veg oil for human consumption that canola can try to fill, so the trade has been pricing in an increased flow to the US. There has been beneficial rains across major growing regions. This looks to continue so the crop in the ground looks good.
• MATIF rapeseed prices have been flirting with the top of the range that we have traded in recent months. So far we have been unable to break through €495. This has brought ex farm values above £400 ex in the UK, which has provided those with confidence in their crop a good opportunity to place a safe hedge at a good value ahead of harvest. As always, MATIF prices are being impacted by currency, which has also helped support for now. Seasonality should suggest that we have a week or so to go before facing harvest pressure, though taking into consideration the lack of farmer selling so far this year, we may see this start early.
  

Outlook
From here, there will be a large focus on the development of the situation in the Middle East and how this impacts both trade flows and currency. Now that we are getting close to harvest, there is less change of detrimental weather impacting the yield in Europe, though the next two weeks are forecast to be very hot and dry, the key will be seeing how yields look when harvest gets underway. In the US, the biofuel policy is likely to remain in the spotlight for veg oils, as markets balance the new flows that will be needed.

Oats

Widespread hot and dry conditions across Europe likely to progress oat development towards maturity, but potential for yield reductions during critical grain fill period.

Key Factors

• High temperatures in Spain and Western Europe this week are expected to see crops develop quickly as temps in excess of 30 degrees C. This high heat stress could damage yields with some crops going through the critical grain fill period.
• Finland and the Baltic states are forecast some timely rains, which will help sustain production forecasts, however, more will be needed to offset the below average rainfall experienced year to date.
• Recent milling oat trades have been reported, however, this is likely to be pricing up existing supply agreements.
• Feed oat demand continues to be hard to find for new crop. It is believed that buyers have positions to cover, but not looking to pull the trigger until they have demand to offset any purchases.
• Here in the UK, old crop demand has dried up with odd shorts now remaining. Long holders will soon be forced to roll tonnages into new crop positions and this could add to surplus stocks once harvest starts.
• Widespread rain over the last two weeks has helped to stem the tide of net drying conditions but the impact of the current heat wave in conjunction with ~55% of average rainfall over the last five months is yet to be understood.

Outlook
More rain is needed to sustain developing oat crops and farmer selling will be needed to pressure prices lower. 

Pulses

With the weather heading back to warm and dry with reduced rainfall, pulse crops have come under a little pressure and don’t look quite as good as they did a week ago. Pea viners are well and truly rolling, with the earliest cut 12 days ahead of schedule, whilst late drilled vining peas have only been in the ground three weeks!

Key Factors

• Old crop pulse markets are now all but done in reality, with parcels still coming forward. The old crop/new crop inverse remains, and with demand being relatively satisfied at this point, we could well see remaining old crop prices coming down to close the inverse in the coming weeks. As we said last week, if you still have any unsold parcels on the old crop, it is better to sell them sooner rather than later in our opinion.
• GBP is over a whole cent lower against the USD WoW, having closed at 1.3422 last night, down 0.0123 on the week, and is currently trading around the unchanged level at the time of writing. Whilst this is helping values become slightly more competitive, it is probably more accurate to say beans are less uncompetitive on the export markets. Beans are still c. £10/mt behind their Baltic competition for export at the moment, and despite the pullback in GBPUSD, feed beans are still c. £45-50/mt too expensive to feature unanimously compound rations.
• The weather outlook has turned against pulse crops for the coming week, with the heatwave the UK is currently experiencing starting to move them towards being under some level of stress. With little to no rainfall and above average temperatures in the 7 day forecast, there is a risk we could see an increase in aborted pod sites as the plants struggle for moisture, potentially hampering the yield potential.
• Despite initial rainfall at the start of the month, improving crop conditions, especially for peas, the recent lack of precipitation combined with rising temperatures, has led to crops approaching stress levels. No additional concerns have been reported regarding broader weather conditions across major growing regions, including Canada. We have now entered the transitional phase between the old crop and new crop seasons, with buyers beginning to initiate new crop contract bookings. Pea prices have remained stable on a week-on-week basis.
  

Outlook
Weather patterns have started to turn against Pulse crops in recent days, with the heat wave placing them under some stress. The forecast is showing minimal rainfall and above average temperatures, which whilst good for the approaching barley harvest, will likely slow pulse crops down, with the threat of aborted pod sites and poor pod-fill coming to the fore again. After a good couple of weeks for crop conditions, we’re back to a developing flag around pulse production prospects for new crop.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Following the success of Cereals 2025, we were thrilled to reconnect with our loyal customers and to welcome many new faces showing strong interest in the ADM Agriculture portfolio. While winter cereals remained a key focus, we also noted a renewed enthusiasm for winter oilseed rape, highlighting the growing momentum across our range.

Key Factors

• The NIAB cereal plots at Cereals 2025 brought yellow rust into sharp focus, particularly highlighting shifts in the pathogen and its interaction with the YR15 resistance gene. The performance of different varieties was notably influenced by their broader resistance gene profiles. RGT Hexton, a new soft Group 4 variety from RAGT, stood out for its clean appearance and strong agronomic package, marking it as a promising contender for the future. Group 1 varieties KWS Vibe and SY Cheer also looked clean, showing resilience in current conditions.
• Group 3 variety Bamford is shaping up to be a strong contender for autumn drilling, with robust disease resistance and broad market appeal. KWS Solitaire also looked promising, offering an added advantage with midge resistance—making both varieties ones to watch in the coming season. Among the Group 4s, several varieties showed signs of infection, reflecting the well-documented changes in disease pressure. However, the real test will come at harvest time, when performance in the field is truly measured.
• Interest in oilseed rape continues to build, with many growers considering a return to the crop for the 2025 season. New varieties such as Karat, Maverick, and Hinsta—alongside Crusoe for those requiring clubroot resistance—are firmly on growers’ radars thanks to their strong agronomic packages and improved yield potential. As expected, stocks from over-yeared sources are beginning to run low, so early ordering is advised to secure your preferred variety.
• Within our existing portfolio, varieties like LG Academic are performing well in the field, with repeat orders already coming through. Forward crop values are holding steady at encouraging levels, helping to drive daily demand. With an increase in the UK oilseed rape area likely, we recommend placing orders sooner rather than later to avoid potential shortages.
• To support the success of your OSR crop, have you considered companion cropping? Popular companion species such as fenugreek, buckwheat, and berseem clover can enhance establishment and reduce pest pressure. Several options are available to suit different agronomic needs.
• ADM Agriculture have a wide range of buyback contracts available on wheat, barley, oats, pulses, and many other commodities, which can help to increase farm income when its needed. To ensure you get the right choice for your situation, please consider booking your seed requirements early with the buyback option.
• Winter barley interest is beginning to build, following the growing enthusiasm for oilseed rape. Hybrid barleys are once again at the forefront, thanks to their increased yield potential compared to conventional types.
• Inys, from KWS, is a notable new entry this year and is expected to be in high demand. As the highest-yielding variety with outstanding agronomic traits—including excellent standing ability—it will undoubtedly be on the radar of hybrid growers.
• SY Quantock is also attracting attention with its reduced levels of brackling and improved yield over SY Kingsbarn. Meanwhile, SY Kestrel, which was only available in very limited quantities in 2024, is anticipated to be a popular choice for those seeking BYDV resistance.
• In the conventional category, the standout varieties are LG Capitol and LG Caravelle, both from the Limagrain portfolio. These offer yield potential within 1% of SY Kingsbarn, alongside strong agronomic characteristics and good straw strength.
• Among the conventional six-row types, a notable new introduction is Integral, from Secobra—a high-yielding, stiff-strawed winter barley with the added advantage of BYDV tolerance.
  

Outlook
As harvest approaches at pace, thoughts are naturally turning to variety selection and rotational planning. At ADM Agriculture, we believe we offer all the key ingredients to support you in both planning and marketing your crops.

Our close relationships with the UK’s leading plant breeders give us early insights and in-depth knowledge of the latest varieties. This, combined with the expertise of our experienced team of market strategists, positions us well to help lay the foundations for your farm’s success.

Please get in touch with your local farm trader to learn more about what we can offer and how we can work together.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas – Geopolitical tensions and extreme summer heat fuel bullish momentum in both European and US gas markets.

Key Factors

• European futures surged above €39/MWh, the highest in over ten weeks, driven by fears of broader conflict between Israel and Iran.
• President Trump’s call for evacuation of Tehran and rejection of peace efforts intensified market anxiety.
• Europe’s reliance on global LNG, particularly Qatari cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, leaves it exposed to potential disruption; around 4% of European supply is at risk.
• Despite Qatar’s assurances of normal shipping, traders remain cautious around the vital chokepoint that handles 20% of global LNG and oil flows.
• European cooling demand is surging as forecasts show sustained hotter-than-normal conditions across the continent.
• US gas futures reached $3.97/MMBtu amid strong power sector demand and recovering LNG exports following maintenance at Cameron, Sabine Pass, and Corpus Christi.
• US LNG feedgas demand averaged 14.1 bcfd in June, up from recent lows, while Lower 48 production edged higher to 105.3 bcfd, with a peak of 106.4 bcfd this week.

Outlook

Geopolitical risks and weather-driven demand are firming both European and US benchmarks. In Europe, eyes remain on Middle East developments and heat-driven power use. In the US, elevated temperatures and the return of LNG export flows could keep prices near recent highs, though strong domestic production continues to provide a buffer.

Ammonia – Market uncertainty persists amid Middle East supply concerns and tentative price floor speculation.

Key Factors

• Ammonia market sentiment remains divided in late June, with no consensus on whether current price levels represent a true floor.
• Limited spot business has occurred, as buyers hesitate to accept higher target prices being floated by suppliers.
• Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly in Iran and Egypt, is contributing to heightened market caution.
• Iranian ammonia production remains technically intact, but all urea production is currently halted.
• Two key Iranian natural gas facilities were struck on 14 June, disrupting domestic supply; nitrogen plants are reportedly flaring ammonia as a precautionary safety measure.

Outlook
While fundamentals suggest potential for a price floor, the situation remains finely balanced. Middle Eastern instability adds upside risk, but firm price traction will depend on whether buyers capitulate to sellers’ targets. Continued geopolitical disruptions could trigger a sharper bullish shift, particularly if production or logistics are directly affected.

Nitrates – European producers seek higher pricing amid gas-driven cost pressure, while UK supply tightens and Brazil eyes firming sentiment.

Key Factors

• European nitrate demand has slowed seasonally, with limited spot activity and some forward enquiries emerging for autumn.
• Small July parcels of ammonium nitrate (AN) are still moving, but broader regional demand is easing into the summer lull.
• European producers are raising offers in response to natural gas prices hitting 10-week highs, driving up cost bases across the board.
• UK supply remains tight, particularly for NS grades, as inbound cargoes have been limited and uncommitted buyers may face reduced options by late Q3.
• CF UK has released a new November on-farm price showing a £30/t increase versus initial 2025 offers.
• In Brazil, AN sentiment is firming; suppliers have withdrawn offers amid Iran-Israel volatility and associated urea market uncertainty.
• Brazilian AN was last assessed at $265–275/t CFR, with expectations of a $20–25/t increase depending on how global urea values settle next week.

Outlook
The nitrate market remains caught between seasonal demand softness and rising upstream costs. European producer margins will remain under scrutiny as gas markets continue to rally and place further pressure on the UK to secure tonnes for later season buyers.

Urea – Global urea prices surge as supply outages in Egypt and Iran tighten fundamentals and India faces covering urgency.

Key Factors

• Egypt’s 7.7 Mt annual urea capacity remains offline as pipeline gas supply from Israel is cut off, a direct result of escalating Iran-Israel conflict.
• Iranian urea exports are also halted amid natural gas outages and wider regional instability; US military involvement remains a looming risk factor.
• India’s NFL failed to secure acceptances at $399/t CFR WC1 and may soon re-enter the market at higher levels to cover its 1.5 Mt requirement.
• Algeria’s granular urea prices jumped to $500/t FOB, rising from $417/t in just days following a 20,000–25,000 t sale.
• Geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly critical, with 31% of global urea exports—over 16 Mt—originating west of the chokepoint.
• Disruption to Hormuz would not only impact urea, but also sulphur (44% global exports) and ammonia (18%), posing multi-nutrient risk.
• UK forward prices have surged by £100/t from initial new-season levels amid widespread offer withdrawals and rising global benchmarks.

Outlook
With Egypt and Iran side-lined, the global urea market is entering a structurally tighter phase just as India re-emerges with a large uncovered position. Freight and geopolitical risks around Hormuz amplify upside potential. Sellers are firmly in control, and further price gains appear likely in the short term.

Phosphates – DAP prices rally to near two-year highs as Indian demand tightens global supply and China channels exports via alternative routes.

Key Factors

• DAP prices in India climbed to the mid-$770s/t CFR this week, up from $757–764/t last week, marking the highest levels since September 2022.
• The DAP assessment mid-point has surged over $140/t since mid-March, reflecting sustained demand and constrained global availability.
• India remains the key driver of bullish momentum, with Chinese cargoes facing supply restrictions into the Indian market.
• In the latest Ethiopia tender, all DAP offers originated from China, signalling a strategic shift as exporters seek alternative demand centres.
• Ethiopian demand is increasingly critical as a release valve for Chinese supply while Indian import appetite dominates pricing dynamics.

Outlook
Tight fundamentals and strong Indian procurement continue to fuel upside in phosphate pricing. With China redirecting volumes and alternative demand from East Africa absorbing excess, DAP prices are likely to hold firm or extend gains, particularly if Indian buying sustains through July.

Potash – China’s contract at $346/t CFR sets global floor; geopolitical risk and Southeast Asian demand support spot firmness.

Key Factors

• The long-awaited China potash contract was settled last week at $346/t CFR between Uralkali and Chinese importers, marking a key benchmark for the global market.
• The deal is widely interpreted as establishing a pricing floor, with Indian buyers expected to follow suit in upcoming settlements.
• Spot prices are trending firmer in Southeast Asia as buyers move to secure volumes ahead of broader contract alignments.
• The Israel-Iran conflict has introduced new supply-side concerns, with potential risks to output from regional producers in Israel and Jordan.
• Gas-related disruptions remain a key concern, especially where feedstock or logistics dependencies could constrain future production.

Outlook
The China settlement offers clarity and stability to long-term contracts, but spot markets are likely to firm near-term amid geopolitical risk and regional demand. Traders will be watching closely for further price movement and potential upstream disruptions as Middle East tensions persist

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1685	1.3422	1.1480

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
June 25	140-152	158-163	210-220	210-230