Thursday 29 May 2025

Wheat

Grain markets weakened over the past week, with early rallies fading amid beneficial global weather, diminishing fund short-covering, and a lack of fresh bullish drivers. While temporary support was found at key technical levels, fundamentals suggest mounting pressure from improving crop conditions and uninspiring demand. UK and EU markets are particularly vulnerable if rainfall continues and farmer selling accelerates.

Key Points

• Initial rallies were led by fund short-covering on US crop downgrades and weather risks in China/Russia, but momentum faded. Funds have since resumed selling, extending bearish pressure. Open interest dropped sharply across US and European wheat markets which is a key indicator of market participation.
• Recent rainfall across the US Plains, China, and much of Europe has eased earlier crop concerns, and dampens the necessity for markets to price in further weather premium. Spring wheat in the US, however, showed weak early ratings, and China’s Yellow River Basin remains a risk with new dryness which will keep the bulls engaged for a moment.
• Key support levels held temporarily—€201/t for Sep’25 MATIF and £180/t for London Nov’25. Yet, prices are flirting with multi-week lows. UK values are under particular pressure due to a strong pound and high relative pricing.
• UK farmer selling remains subdued with less-than inspiring prices and week on week price action and this is keeping a floor under domestic markets. However, if an exportable surplus materializes and rainfall persists, values could quickly correct downward. Discounted imports into Ireland highlight competitive pressure, with other European operators keen to pick up the business well-below UK prices.
• Demand remains uninspiring. Algeria and Saudi purchased early last week but higher prices later discouraged fresh business. Russian export flexibility may grow after scrapping minimum tender prices, enabling them to clear old stocks faster.
  
  

Outlook
With fund selling returning, rainfall improving crop outlooks and global demand soft, grain markets face continued downside pressure. Unless fresh bullish catalysts emerge — like weather shocks or stronger demand — prices may erode further. UK values, especially, are at risk if confidence in new crop potential leads to an uptick in farmer sales.

Malting Barley

FOB markets are drifting as continental sellers see rains as a selling trigger, however domestic markets are holding steady with farmer selling once again close to zero as confidence in the crop remains low.

Key Factors

• We have seen good rains across the UK which has brought some relief to the malting market following the prolonged spring drought. FOB markets have retraced from their highs as a result, however domestic markets are still cautious and it is unlikely we will see much farmer selling impetus now until the crop is in the barn and quality/yields are known.
• Demand remains sluggish, and this looks to continue at least in the short term.
  
  

Outlook
Once again, the market will be weather/sentiment driven from here, likely led by FOB markets where most liquidity exists. Premiums are healthy compared to recent levels and, in the longer term, should see some pressure looking at today’s supply and demand forecasts. However this is all subject to yield and quality at harvest which today is an unknown.

Feed Barley

Old crop feed barley remains illiquid, but spot demand is healthy as recent dry conditions have hampered forage availability. New crop is showing similarly good demand, although there is no farmer selling to report which is supporting basis.

Key Factors

• Dry conditions have supported spot demand, particularly for ruminant feed.
• Old crop export business is slow, and with EU harvest drawing near, most buyers are trying to make do with current stocks through to the end of the season to utilise the cheaper harvest prices available.
• Farmer selling across all positions is slow, particularly as dry weather is bringing some nervousness over the potential of the spring crop, which is supporting new crop prices relative to wheat. On the other side, demand for new crop has seen an uptick in recent weeks.
• New crop feed barley still does not calculate to export.
  
  

Outlook
We expect old crop to stay supported, but we do not see significant upside potential. New crop should stay supported vs other products whilst farmer selling remains slow, once again global wheat markets will be the main driver of prices. Unless we see a major demand hike, UK feed barley still needs to lose some value to compete against cheaper competing origins for export in the long run.

Rapeseed

It has been another mixed week for agricultural markets. Weather forecasts overall still look positive towards production. Global geopolitical tensions remain high. Over the weekend we saw Russia launch air attacks on Ukraine for three straight days, prompting Trump to consider more sanctions on Russia.

Key Factors

• In the US, weekly planting progress came in 1% ahead of expectations for soybeans at 76% complete vs. 66% last year and 5 year average of 68%, though we have now slipped back from the record pace of 77% 4 years ago. Corn also remains ahead of last year and the 5 year average with good/excellent levels at 68%. There has been some speculation following the crop progress report that corn acreage may fall short of expectations and be replaced by soybeans., especially considering that the early planted soybean crops will be developing well due to the early rains. Based on current events it seems the rangebound trade is likely to continue, we are in a narrowing range in the short term with the daily range falling which could help a breakout, but for now, resistance is $10.77 and support is $10.38 on the July contract.
• Crude oil prices have also been relatively range bound this week as we wait for this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, in which they are expected to lift production restrictions. The Iranian president has said that the nation will be able to survive even if negotiations with the US collapse. An agreement between them both would free up further supply to the world so a possible breakdown of these talks would support prices.
• Winnipeg canola has managed to make a new high this week, though has since reverted back towards its previous price. Commercial stocks are also expected to fall further this week as relatively dry conditions over the weekend allowed canola sowings to continue at a record pace, to the detriment of further farmer deliveries. The arrival of rains across the prairies has pressured price since this will help the development of the crop which has been planted earlier than usual. In Australia, conditions also look good with the arrival of moisture which will help prepare for winter canola sowings.

• MATIF rapeseed has reverted back below €484 and continues to trade within wide range. The EUR/USD has remained volatile which has bled into European rapeseed prices. Weather forecasts look good again with the regions that were looking dry now set to receive beneficial rains, and the regions that have received heavy rains are seeing this ease. A crop production company MARS has updated their average European rapeseed yields to 3.17t/Ha from 3.16t.Ha previously, showing that we are still looking positive towards a roughly average yield.
  
  

Outlook
The points to focus on remain the same as last week, with the main eye being the weather. Prospects for harvest looks good both in the EU and UK which is keeping us from adding any weather premium in the face of tight stocks ahead of the new year. The other main point is the strong sterling that is keeping UK prices subdued while MATIF had been trading at the top of its range.

If you’re attending this year’s Cereals Event, be sure to visit our stand and join our Karat competition for a chance to win three packs!

Oats

Another quiet week for European and UK Oat markets, not helped by the short week here in the UK. Rainfall is the key talking point, as with all crops, and the recent weather will certainly be helping.

Key Factors

• Some rain is better than no rain. The last week has seen improved rainfall across the UK and Northern European growing areas, with more in the forecast. Whilst this isn’t enough to close the deficit gap in soil moistures and cumulative rainfall, it is certainly a positive and helping a crop which was starting to flag.
• Similar levels of rainfall are forecast for the coming week across all of the key oat growing regions. This has helped ease some of the consumer worries that had been building, although it is still too early to tell whether it is enough to help the crop achieve anything like its usual potential.
• New crop trade has quietened down as a result of growing consumer confidence. Farmer selling and overall confidence still lags slightly, however the rain has brought a more positive sentiment across the oat complex.
  
  

Outlook
The recent increase in rainfall, as well as more in the forecast is bringing some reassurance to the market. Whilst it is too early to see the long term impacts of the dryness and the subsequent return of rainfall to the forecast, there is an increased level of optimism. This has brought some comfort to the market, but also taken the edge off the urgency of consumers to acquire forward cover. 

Pulses

The collective rain dance has worked – a little. The last week has seen upwards of 15mm of rainfall across most of the UK, and not a moment too soon. Whilst pulses are a comparatively resilient crop, the rainfall is welcome none the less and should help ease any potential stress that we could see coming in to the crop. New crop remains ill-defined for now, with concerns still present around the production potential of the new crop hampering liquidity. Whilst the crop certainly looks comparatively healthy, concerns remain over short plants and what impact the dryness has had.

Key Factors

• The old crop pulse trade has been slow over the last week, with most people now relatively tidy. Consumers continue to have an eye on new crop, although many are just watching it for now, keen to see what, if any, impact this recent rainfall will have.
• GBP continues to firm, having traded up in to the 1.35’s this week. Whilst this is helping buyers of imported products, it is hampering our export competitiveness. It is likely there will be some level of export requirement for new crop beans once we get there, especially on the Human Consumption grades, so it is certainly one to watch as a producer, as coupled with the steady grind lower of NGFI prices for commodities such as Rapemeal and Soymeal, beans certainly need to do some work to the downside, as they continue to be c. £45-50/mt too expensive to be buying wholesale demand in diets across the piece.
• The weather outlook continues to look supportive for beans, with continued rainfall in the forecast, as well as some sun and slightly above average temperatures. This will no doubt help keep beans performing strongly in the fields, with crop conditions broadly reported as favourable. Whilst the crop does look good, there are reports of short plants starting to come in to flower. Whilst a flag, there is still time though, with beans having the ability to add additional growth and pod sites. Not a bullish flag yet, but certainly an amber flag to watch if the weather turns drier again.

• A sigh of relief for pea crops this week as rain spreads across the UK. In terms of market activity it’s still remarkably quiet. A global pulse conference last week  left the market pondering the possible extensions to imports into India and global crop potential. Buyers are now starting to look at prices for 2025/26 but remain reluctant to commit to forward contracts with so many unknowns still in the market.
  
  

Outlook
The recent rainfall has helped, and with more in the forecast, expect pulse crops to continue gather momentum in terms of production potential. However, until the collective confidence in this builds, we will likely see new crop values remain relatively static. Fundamentally, UK beans are too expensive vs other origins, so if production is over the baseline demand, which it currently looks to be, expect prices to come lower as we approach harvest as beans look to compete either on the export markets, or in to other domestic homes. It is too early to tell on Human Consumption crops, however, there is an underlying demand there ready to meet the offers as they come to the market.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

The well overdue rain arrived over the weekend across most parts of the UK giving the growing crop a much needed boost as moves through the growth stages.

Key Factors

• For those last minute  SFI mixtures we have a wide selection on the floor ready for despatch including  Winter bird food & herbal leys.
• Oilseed Rape continues to create attention with the exciting new variety introductions of Karat, Maverick, Hinsta and for those who need a clubroot variety Crusoe, order early to avoid possible disappointment as they are sure to sell with the forecast of a likely increase in the UK rape area. Have you considered companion cropping to help toward giving the oilseed rape crop a better chance of success?  We have several options available including the most popular species – Fenugreek, Buckwheat and Berseem clover.
• ADM Agriculture have a wide range of buyback contracts available on wheat, barley, oats , pulses and many other commodities which can help to increase farm income when its needed . To ensure you get the right  choice for your situation, please consider booking your seed requirement early.
• Early interest in the Winter Hybrid Barley market is starting to appear with the spotlight focusing towards KWS Inys, SY Quantock and SY Kingsbarn and for those looking at situations that require BYDV, SY Kestrel is creating interest.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead to autumn plantings with species and variety choice being key, we here at ADM Agriculture strongly believe that we have all the key factors to help with planning and marketing your crop. Strong links with the UK’s best breeders gives us the insight and knowledge of varieties which runs alongside our experienced team of market strategists to hopefully help lay the plans for your success.

Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 5 or speak with your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
Prices firm in Europe on trade optimism and weak storage; US market softens on LNG maintenance.

Key Factors

• European gas futures rose toward €37/MWh, supported by hopes of revived global demand following a US court ruling against Trump-era tariffs.
• Lower-than-expected storage levels in the EU — now below 50%, compared to 70% a year ago — are adding pressure as summer restocking continues.
• Norwegian gas flows are recovering post-maintenance, though output at the key Troll field remains disrupted.
• US gas futures dipped to $3.5/MMBtu, pressured by falling LNG feed gas demand due to ongoing maintenance at Cameron, Corpus Christi, and Sabine Pass.
• Average LNG feed gas demand is 15.1 bcfd in May, down from April’s record 16.0 bcfd; US output is slightly down to 105 bcfd amid routine pipeline maintenance.
  
  

Outlook
European gas markets remain under upward pressure due to storage deficits and tightening global LNG competition. The potential rollback of US tariffs could stimulate industrial energy use, while Asian summer demand looms large. In the US, softer short-term demand from LNG facilities and mild weather may cap near-term price gains, though warmer forecasts and tighter global supply could firm prices heading into summer.

Ammonia
Tampa slides further as bearish sentiment persists; European output remains constrained.

Key Factors

• The June Tampa contract settled $45/t lower at $370/t CFR, down from $415/t in May, confirming bearish sentiment west of Suez.
• Market participants expect prices to remain stable to slightly weaker heading into June, with Tampa serving as a key benchmark.
• In Europe, ammonia production remains limited. In Ukraine, Cherkasy Azot and Rivneazot are operating only one ammonia unit each, while Odesa Port Plant and Dniproazot remain idle.
• Despite sufficient global supply, structural production challenges in Europe persist due to high gas costs and ongoing regional disruptions.
  
  

Outlook
With firm supply and weak global demand, ammonia prices are likely to remain under pressure through early summer. The slide at Tampa underscores limited west-of-Suez appetite, while threadbare European production highlights the vulnerability of local supply chains.

Nitrates
Prices climb again in Europe as Russian duties fuel bullish sentiment; UK launch imminent.

Key Factors

• Yara raised AN and CAN prices by €15/t on 26 May for July delivery, following its prior increases just a week earlier.
• YaraBela EXTRAN 33.5% AN now at €385/t CPT France.
• NITROMAG CAN 27% at €307/t CIF Germany & Benelux.
• LAT Nitrogen followed suit on 27 May with August prices:
  CAN 27% at €305/t CIF Germany, up €15/t
  MYPREMIAN 33.5% at €387/t CPT France, up €13/t
• The price hikes follow the European Parliament vote to impose tariffs on Russian fertilisers, adding bullish pressure.
• Limited volume availability and strong demand saw previous offers at €360–370/t sell out quickly despite concerns over affordability.
• UK market poised for new-season launch, likely next week, with grower sentiment appearing to improve following wetter spells of weather.
  
  

Outlook
European nitrate markets remain in rally mode as supply tightens and political developments lift sentiment. The UK market is watching closely, with an imminent new-season launch likely to follow continental trends unless affordability pushes back.

Urea
India tenders, but global production issues and weak off take keep market cautious.

Key Factors

• NFL issued a tender closing 12 June for 1.5 Mt urea (West Coast India only) for shipment by 31 July. Offers must remain valid until 26 June.
• Chinese-origin cargoes permitted with CoO from the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade.
• Egyptian producers remain under pressure as gas shortages worsen:
  Mopco is offering $405/t FOB with one line producing for export.
• Most producers are operating at ~40% capacity or halted entirely amid extreme early-summer heat and limited LNG.
• North African granular offers to Brazil at $400/t CFR see limited buying interest, with some discounted, formula-linked sales reported.
• US Gulf urea market finally subdued post-tariff hype:
  Loaded barges bid $410/st FOB NOLA, offers at $420/st.
  June bid at $370/st, offer $380/st, softening from earlier this week.
  
  

Outlook
India’s tender could support global sentiment, but the market remains hesitant. Egypt’s worsening energy crisis poses upside risk, though demand—especially in Brazil and the US—has yet to truly reflect it. Traders are watching for clearer direction in June as expectation suggests much of India’s tender will be filled by Chinese origin urea.

Potash
Prices firm as attention turns to contracts in India and China.

Key Factors

• Potash prices expected to firm, though recent momentum has slowed.
• Market attention shifts to China and India contract settlements, anticipated to set a global price floor for H2.
• In India, RCF issued a purchase tender for 35,000 t white/pink MOP, alongside NPK, reinforcing near-term demand.
  
  

Outlook
While spot activity has quietened, structural tightness remains. Upcoming long-term settlements in China and India are expected to stabilise the market and re-energise sentiment through Q3.

Phosphates
Prices continue their climb as tight supply persists and China’s return offers little relief.

Key Factors

• DAP and MAP prices remain under upward pressure amid exceptionally tight global availability.
• China’s export quotas are limited, and exporters are seeking top-dollar deals, offering little price relief.
• China halted export inspections on NP fertilizers, triggering fresh anxiety among importers reliant on those volumes.
• In the US, DAP at NOLA hit $700/st FOB for July, the highest since November 2022, with the latest assessments from last week at $675–690/st FOB.
  
  

Outlook
With structural supply issues unresolved and China’s exports offering limited support, prices are likely to keep rising. Buyers face strong competition for tight tonnage, and further price hikes are likely if new sales conclude at higher levels over the coming weeks.

Our fertiliser specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 6 or speak with your Farm Trader.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1922	1.3467	1.1292

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
May25	147-160	162-172	210-220	430-435