Thursday 8 May 2025

Wheat

Grain markets have fluctuated amid favourable US planting conditions, weakening demand, and weather volatility in key regions. European markets face added pressure from sluggish exports and a strengthening euro, while UK markets grapple with dry conditions. Despite brief rallies, bearish fundamentals and heavy fund short positions continue to weigh on prices globally.

Key Points

• Favourable weather has allowed U.S. farmers to advance corn and soybean planting ahead of average, with soybeans reaching record speed. This rapid pace improves yield potential and reinforces bearish market sentiment, as traders anticipate strong supply, reducing risk premiums and limiting price support across both U.S. and global grain markets.
• EU wheat exports are down 34% year-on-year due to smaller crops and reduced competitiveness, particularly with a stronger euro. This weak demand profile is dragging down MATIF prices and creating headwinds for recovery. Slower trade flows and high ending stocks also contribute to sustained downside pressure on European grain markets.
• Dry conditions in the UK are becoming a key market focus, reducing confidence in new crop production. While crops had a strong winter start, continued lack of rainfall may shrink exportable surplus, tightening domestic supply. This is reflected in narrowing London-MATIF spreads, with farmers hesitant to sell amid yield uncertainty.
• Reports of hot, dry weather in one-third of China’s wheat regions briefly lifted global prices on fears of production loss and increased imports. However, markets quickly dismissed the threat amid broader bearish signals, including strong U.S. conditions and diplomatic tensions, tempering enthusiasm for a sustained rally driven by China.
• Speculative funds are heavily net short across all wheat classes and also cutting long positions in corn, indicating a lack of bullish conviction. This large short exposure limits price upside, as rallies are quickly sold into. However, any sudden weather or geopolitical threat could trigger short-covering and brief price spikes.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain fundamentally bearish unless disrupted by a major weather threat or fresh demand. Strong planting progress, favourable crop ratings, and subdued export demand will likely keep rallies short-lived, though UK dryness and Chinese weather may offer periodic support.

Malting Barley

New crop malting barley prices are making gains on dry weather, although upside is limited by demand woes.

Key Points

• Dry weather conditions continue to add risk premium to the new crop market, and farmer selling is extremely unlikely until we see some precipitation which should continue to support values.
• Overall, demand remains on the thin side and liquidity is low.
• Positive news as UK government announces a trade deal with India, which will see the tariff on whiskey imports chopped to 75% from 150%.
  
  

Outlook

Once again, weather is the key driver and this will continue to be the focus of the market, any price direction for now will be purely down to sentiment. Expect prices to remain supported whilst conditions are dry, but this could quickly change if crops get some relief and the market returns its focus to the poor demand.

Feed Barley

Once again a very quiet market. Prices are coming under some pressure as nearby shorts cover their positions and first hand demand remains on the slow side.

Key Points

• Export markets are quiet, Ireland remains the main focus however demand is sporadic and in general buying and selling ideas are far apart.

• Selling ideas on new crop are becoming more defensive as dry conditions persist across the UK, which is keeping farmer selling slow.
• Once again, new crop levels are still uncompetitive for export and are not enticing significant demand in the domestic market, despite a surplus forecast for the 25/26 S&D.

Outlook

Old crop will likely drift sideways/lower as demand stays thin unless export buyers come back to the table. New crop will continue to follow futures/wider grain markets on the whole, but we expect to see pressure to basis once farmer selling picks up – once again a matter of timing.

Rapeseed

The theme of this week has again been a focus on tensions between the US and China, and weather markets. US and China are set to meet this weekend in Geneva which is the first solid proof that work is being done to set up some form of negotiation, though expectations are mixed, some look for no change while others are expecting a reduction in tariffs. As for global weather, most locations look good, the US has positive conditions for the planting campaign, Argentina harvest is able to continue progressing and there is little cause for concern in Europe with a hot and dry week coming in Northern countries and rain in the south.

Key Points

• CBOT soybeans have managed to go another week with little change, having taken back any gains, support at $10.36 remains strong. Soybeans are now 30% planted vs. 24% last year and 23% 5 year average, weather forecasts look positive for this to continue at a good pace. In Argentina, harvest is 40% complete and Brazil is more or less finished. South American soybean prices have returned to a discount to US, prompting China to buy at least 10 cargoes from Brazil and 4 from Argentina. EU soybean imports are up 2% year on year.

• Crude oil has found some support again this week, intraday at $58, managing to keep prices closing above the $60 mark. Trump’s comments of sanctions on any countries that buy Iranian oil as well as improving relations with China are still lending support. OPEC+ have confirmed their decision to raise production by another 410,000 barrels per day for June, though this was no surprise. Weekly API stocks were 4.5 million lower. EIA forecasts US oil output for the year at 13.42 million barrels per day, down from their previous 13.51 million.
• Canola prices continue to try and move higher, though are clearly running out of steam towards $708. Cash levels for later in the year are picking up as Cargill’s new rush as well as a plant expansion at an existing LDC plant are both expected to come online, bringing an additional 6,000mt of demand per day. The most recent Commitment of Traders report had funds buying 20,000 contracts, extending their long to 70,000. Weakness in products may be the limiting factor for canola to continue higher for now.
• MATIF rapeseed prices continue to trade within the same range, struggling to make any significant move but remaining volatile within the day. We do tend to see a choppy trend around this time of year. Crops in Europe, widely speaking have progressed well now to the point that dry forecasts across northern countries is no concern. There is rain in some more southern regions, though all this is likely to do is reduce the chance of an early harvest. In the UK, AHDB’s crop conditions report has UK rapeseed at 59% good/excellent, a slight increase from their previous 57% a month ago and a considerable improvement from last year’s 47%. Poor/very poor is at 10%.
  
  

Outlook

From here, there will be a keen eye on the outcome of this weekend’s meeting between the US and China. Outside of this we will be focused on the weather to see that the US soybean campaign continues well and that we do no

Oats

Oat markets in Europe remain quiet with minimal trade being reported. But with dry weather in some key growing areas things could change.

Key Points

• A lack of rain in parts of Sweden, the UK, Germany along with some of the Baltic states will persist over the next week and this is become an increasing concern for spring oat production.
• The UK, southern Sweden and northern Germany have received less than 50% of their normal rainfall over the last 2 months, with many areas getting close to 25-33%.
• Spain has received 300% of its expected rainfall for the last 2 months and this has increased its production prospects for oats. If the weather is favourable at harvest time then the Spanish should produce a very good crop and could not need to import.
• Feed demand remains poor with no firm bids in the market currently and given the condition of the Spanish crop, marketing poor quality oats could be a challenge.
• Here in the UK prices have increased slightly following some fresh demand. This is likely to be end of season top ups, but it could also be down to the increasing concern over a lack of rainfall which is negatively impacting the developing new crop.
• Some new crop business has been written over the last week and this will need to continue as we approach harvest.
  
  

Outlook

The market may have reached an area of support with dry weather starting to focus buyers and sellers minds. The crop is yet to be harvest and so all options remain on the table, the only question is which side of the balance sheet will we reach; surplus or deficit.

Pulses

Following another dry week, pulse markets have struggled for traction, maintaining the typical end of season lull. Late season grower longs are making their way to the market, however volumes are muted. The dry conditions are doing little to inspire new crop activity on both peas or beans, with grower’s remaining cautious around the potential of the new crop at this stage.

Key Factors

• The Egyptian New Crop campaign is now all but done, with good reported quality. Attention is starting to turn towards European New Crop, with the first cargos of Baltic beans having reportedly traded to North Africa. UK beans continue to look out the money at the moment, so will need to come in to line to garner more attention.
• Another week of dry weather here in the UK, with a dry week ahead in the forecast for most, and warmer than normal temperatures in the north. Whilst not yet of full concern, there is certainly an element of defensiveness to new crop bean pricing, with uncertainty around the yield projections at this time. This will no doubt dissipate with some rain, as both the winter and spring crops established well and generally still look good.
• The potential of a weather story is keeping new crop bean premiums supported for now, however if there is a sniff of some volume to the crop, they will need to come lower. The underlying wheat price is again relatively static week on week, meaning the flat price remains relatively unchanged, but New Crop beans are uncompetitive against competing imported feedstuffs such as Rapemeal and Soymeal by c. £35-40/mt.
• Peas continue to look very healthy, but as with the beans, they could do with some rain in the forecast. The global atmosphere of uncertainty continues, with the whirlwind of tariffs and geopolitical instability remaining.
  
  

Outlook
New Crop pulse crops look healthy for now, however with another dry week on the cards for most of the UK, this could start changing if we don’t get any precipitation in the next 10-15 days. Concerns around potential yield deficits as a result keep new crop premiums supported, however this is likely to remain a short term thing once we start to see more meaningful rainfall. GBP remains firm around the 1.33 level, although where it is stable, the market is steadily becoming accustomed to new crop values. Growers should consider the range of strategic marketing options we can offer, whilst ensuring strong crop management for optimal yields. 

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As SFI and small seed drilling continues, demand rises for both mixtures and straights. Early thoughts towards Autumn have begun, starting with winter oilseed rape with the crop planted looking well at present with values looking respectable for the farm income. Plus some exciting new varieties that have hit the market ahead of 2025 drilling.

Key Points

• Our portfolio of OSR varieties has been carefully selected by our specialists to ensure we can offer something for a range of situations and scenarios. Some exciting new additions to the market and our portfolio are Karat, Maverick, Hinsta and Crusoe. We are also pleased to offer some varieties on establishment scheme or sale or return.
• If your needing a maize top up, we still have some varieties available plus our game maize offering consisting of both straights and blends.
• Companion cropping is a great option to help give your OSR crop the best chance of success. We have a wide portfolio of mixes including fenugreek, berseem clover and buckwheat.
• Whether your looking for a standard or bespoke mixture, we have a range available, from cover crops to SFI.
  
  

Outlook
At ADM Agriculture the spectrum of market leading products we have to offer are backed up with up to date market values and a wealth of knowledge regarding these markets. Please contact your local ADM farm trader to discuss more.

Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 5 or speak with your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
LNG demand rebounds as Europe’s storage rebuild faces new headwinds.

Key Points

• European gas futures rose above €34/MWh as Chinese buyers returned to the LNG spot market, tightening supply amid seasonal maintenance and unplanned Norwegian outages.
• EU storage sits at 41.16%, still below average, with major markets like Germany at just 34.6%.
  The EU plans to propose a ban on new Russian gas contracts, including spot deals.
• US futures climbed above $3.5/MMBtu as production dipped to 102.6 bcfd and LNG exports hit a record 16.0 bcfd.
• A 107 bcf US storage build beat seasonal averages, aided by mild weather and high output.
  
  

Outlook
Asian demand and reduced European supply could slow restocking and support prices. US gas remains well-supplied, but record exports and falling output may lend short-term support.

Ammonia
Global oversupply drags prices lower; seasonal shifts offer limited relief.

Key Points

• May Tampa ammonia settled at $415/t CFR, down $20/t from April and $135/t below December, amid strong regional and global supply.
• US seasonal demand is set to conclude, further weakening market support as the off-season begins in June.
• Caribbean and Tampa benchmarks likely to slide through summer before modest Q3 recovery on seasonal demand.

• In NW Europe, ample Algerian supply and the end of spring demand continue to push prices down, with no near-term upside.
• European production costs expected to remain steady given stable gas prices, though tied to EU storage strategy.
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia markets remain firmly bearish through Q2 as supply exceeds demand across regions. Any upside likely delayed until late Q3 when seasonal demand in Europe and the US re-emerges.

Nitrates
European production curbed as demand softens and new-season uncertainty looms.

Key Points

• Bulgaria’s Neochim will shut down its 450,000 t/year ammonia plant and related nitric acid and ammonium nitrate units, citing market pressures.
• Global nitrate prices continue to trend downward as buyers hold off in anticipation of new-season pricing.
• Importers remain hesitant, with limited forward commitments amid broader fertiliser market caution.
• European ammonia industry struggles with prolonged unprofitability due to feed stock costs and oversupply.
  
  

Outlook
With production cuts offering limited short-term price support, the nitrates market is likely to remain under pressure until clearer new-season offers emerge. Buyers are expected to stay sidelined until a price floor is better defined.

Urea
Support fades on Chinese export risk, but bullish fundamentals persist in US.

Key Points

• May tonnage is largely sold out, but forward prices are softening amid limited fresh demand and looming Chinese export availability.
• The US market remains firm, with prices rising over $100/st in the past month, driven by strong inland demand and limited UAN availability.
• Urea imports into the US, though recently improved, had previously lagged, fuelling concerns about seasonal supply adequacy.

• Corn planting in the US is expected to reach 95 Mt, further supporting nitrogen demand.
• European sentiment remains cautious with traders watching potential anti-dumping duties on Russian imports and possible production curtailments in Egypt.
  
  

Outlook
While global prices may drift lower in the near term on Chinese supply pressure, upside risks remain. If Chinese export volumes are limited or geopolitical disruptions tighten supply further, prices could firm again quickly—particularly in tight import markets like the US and Europe.

Potash
Q2 supply cuts and bullish sentiment lift prices; Europe to follow global trend despite seasonal lull.

Key Points

• Global potash prices continue to climb, backed by tighter Q2 supply and strong demand sentiment.
• China’s MOP contract expected to settle at $340/t CFR in June, with India’s likely at $345/t CFR in July—both revised up $15/t from previous forecasts.
• European summer typically brings a demand lull, but restocking for autumn crops like winter wheat is already underway.
• European prices are forecast to range €355–373/t CIF through May–October, with international strength acting as a price floor.
  
  

Outlook
While local activity may slow in Europe through summer, the bullish global tone, tighter supply, and stronger benchmarks in China and India are expected to keep upward pressure on potash pricing in the region.

Phosphates
India’s shortfall and Ethiopia’s switch to DAP drive bullish momentum as global supply tightens further.

Key Points

• India’s DAP stocks have fallen sharply; importers are expected to become more active as the government pledges compensation for trades above the DoF’s $675/t CFR price ceiling which are now becoming a common occurrence.
• Ma’aden sold 55,000 t DAP to India at $720/t CFR for May loading—well above the ceiling—suggesting market realities are overriding policy targets.
• Ethiopia’s switch from NPS to DAP has absorbed several hundred thousand tonnes, adding pressure to an already tight global supply.
• MAP prices to Brazil have surged to $700/t CFR, a 2.5-year high, supported by firm demand despite poor affordability.
• US phosphate prices remain elevated amid tight domestic supply and added support from 10% tariffs. However, affordability concerns and seasonal demand slowdowns may moderate future gains.
  
  

Outlook
The global phosphate market remains bullish, with India and Ethiopia key demand drivers amid constrained availability. While affordability will begin to test price resistance in some regions, current supply dynamics and government-backed buying are likely to keep prices well supported into mid-year.

Our fertiliser specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 6 or speak with your Farm Trader.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1746	1.3292	1.1310

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
May25	145-155	160-175	210-220	425-435