Thursday 4 April 2024

Malting Barley

• For yet another week, the malting barley market is completely weather driven. Prices and premiums continue to push higher on new crop in particular, as weather concerns bring trade buyers to the market.
• French plantings are now all but complete, albeit well behind the optimum date which will likely bring a yield deficit, meanwhile, plantings are underway in Denmark. The UK is well behind pace and no more than 50% planted, which is causing concern as we head into April and weather conditions look mixed in the short term.
• On the other side, consumer demand is nowhere to be seen as the ongoing demand drought continues. Once again, all about the weather and the market will be eager to see how plantings progress, but all things told as of today, the market is feeling supportive despite the demand issues.

Rapeseed

• Last week’s release of USDA stocks and acreage brought heavy soybean stocks at 1.845 billion bushels compared to the expected 1.828 billion bushels and up from 1.687 billion bushels. Prospective plantings came in close to the expected 86.530 million acres at 86.510 million acres, this is up from last year’s projection of 83.600. this did not give the big move that is usually expected after this report, which led to the trade returning its focus to South American weather events. Weather in Argentina shows some showers and sunshine which is favourable to help late crop development as well as allowing the continuation of harvest without delays.
• In the US, March 1^st on farm soybean stocks were the highest in 4 years at 933 million bushels vs. 750 million last year and 1,011 million in 2019.
• Energy markets are higher this week as Drone Strikes on what is thought to be Russia’s third largest refinery has kept prices on edge. We are also still seeing support from ongoing talks that Saudi Arabia will be raising sales to Asia by $0.20-$0.30/barrel. This week the EIA report gave a larger than expected inflow to EIA crude oil inventories as well as narrowed year over year deficit from 25.4 million barrels to 18.5. The EIA report was supportive for gasoline with stocks down by more than expected and implied gasoline demand jumping to thew highest since October.
• Veg oils are higher this week with Malaysian March palm oil exports up 20.5%. Indonesia’s palm plantation size rises to 17.3 million hectares on the back of the Indonesian government trying to improve its data in the palm oil sector. China’s veg oil stocks fell to the lowest level since October 2022, down 31% from February.
• Canola is higher this week as Crush capacity is expected to increase by 50,000 mt this month with much more expected next year, however a sizeable pickup in farmer selling helped keep a cap on any significant gains as cash bids approach $16/bushel.
• Matif rapeseed has also seen a good week and finished last month higher for the first time this year. In China, the trade is looking for better crush margins as there seems to be plenty of interest in rape meal but there are less destinations for rape oil, though margins are on the way up. Prices are finding strong resistance at €458 as we have not closed above that since last October, there is also good support at €441.

Pulses

Beans

• With just two trading days since the last report following the extended Easter weekend, there is fairly little to say. A mixed bag for weather over the Bank Holiday weekend saw conditions broadly drier and some land work take place. Other than this, beans still remain less competitive than they have previously done for the reasons previously discussed. As with previous weeks, new crop beans still remain pretty undiscussed, but until we see some more going into the ground, this is not surprising. With the weather so changeable, and last week’s announcement that new restrictions were being placed around certain SFI schemes, there are certainly a number of unknowns towards the new crop area. Those of you who have signed up to the PGRO may well have already seen their SFI survey in last week’s newsletter, but for those who missed it, this is the link https://rb.gy/uk49ix – it is super simple with just 4 questions to gauge general sentiment out there and takes just 30 seconds to complete. If you are not already signed up to the PGRO mailing list, you can sign up at https://www.pgro.org/, where levy payers are able to access all sorts of advice and support on all things pulses for free!
• The international market remains quiet as we enter the final week of Ramadan, keeping many Egyptian buyers out of the market, whilst most of Europe has had an extended Easter break, with many players taking the opportunity to have a few days away due to the associated school holidays. Unlike when Neo saw the cat twice in The Matrix, there is no glitch in the market report – as we have said for a number of previous weeks now, as we are seeing on the domestic front here in the UK, beans are struggling for a place in the ration due to their relative value, and the Egyptian economy continues to struggle.
• After some brief spells of sunshine over the Bank Holiday weekend, it looks like we are in for further rainfall across the UK in this coming week, with up to 50mm forecast in some areas. Temperatures across much of England and Wales are at least forecast to be slightly above average, however, it is unlikely to offset the additional rain. Most of Europe is in a similar boat, however with lower levels of rainfall and higher temperatures compared to the norm. For those that have managed to drill some beans, there is still time to get them in the CY24 bean pool is still open, but with it due to close imminently, it is worth considering putting your beans in the pool as a separate marketing option.

Peas

• Our 2024/25 buybacks remain available for those who may have land available or any recent crop failures! Peas can be drilled through April and offer a great spring cropping gross margin opportunity. Please contact our team if you have any interest!
• Price direction wise, we have seen stagnation for the first week in a while with little traded both on a purchase and a sales side. Importing over in India has slowed slightly compared to recent weeks which has resulted in little price movement. Feed peas remain in strong demand for the current and upcoming quarter, please contact our team should you have any open market opportunities with swift movement plans available

Fertiliser

• In the UK, the new requirements for using a urease inhibitor on urea products and UAN applied from April 1st has come into effect.
• ADM have 46% Egyptian urea coated with Piamin available for immediate delivery. The 2-NPT urease inhibitor in Piamin, developed by SKW Piesteritz, is the same as that used in integrated products Alzon neo-N and Piagran Pro.
• Piamin is very stable for up to 12 months and this ensures a high level of efficacy even with 12 months of storage. This stability gives flexibility on both storage and application at a later date.
• On liquid UAN and UAN+ATS products, which also requires inhibitors, ADM has AdvaNshield Nutrisphere NL technology available to be delivered in your liquid order as well as AdvaNshiedl NBPT available in 10L cannisters.
• Granular Urea has traded sideways in global spot markets this week with the India tender only securing circa 800kmt. Another tender is being rumoured for June shipment.
• Ammonia prices in the US are stable whilst European Natural Gas prices edge lower back towards March lows capping any significant change on European AN and urea values.
• Phosphate and potash prices remain relatively stable also in the UK, spring demand has increased as windows of opportunity for drilling and fertiliser applications have presented themselves.
• Renewable PK prices for harvest are available from ADM, renewable PKs are carbon neutral and typically containing secondary and trace elements and currently great value against traditional bagged PK prices for autumn application.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.